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  1. #31
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    speed does matter and yes a good leadoff hitter does matter. thats the problem with advanced statistics today. just because the nerds cant quantify it properly they marginalize it.

    HELLO does anybody here remember Rickey Henderson or Bobby Bonds? they affected every game they ever played in and anyone who ever saw them understands that without some fancy stat to prove it. unfortunately the tools we have at present just cant accurately represent what a pair of observant eyes can tell us.

    this is the over reliance in a flawed stat like WAR is creating a bunch of idiots who forget that these are only tools. Bill James the guy who started the Statistical revolution in baseball to begin with repeatedly warned of this. to never let these tools replace your eyes and what you observe

    unfortunately some people find advanced stats as a be all end all, and ignore common sense and what the eyes should easily make obvious, that was the problem with Morales everyone looked at his WAR and said great lets get him, but omly by watching him every day can you see that WAR diesnt show you how he clogs the bases and that matters.

    as time goes by better measures will be derived if course but they never will replace what you see and observe

    would the jays be better if they had a Henderson like leadoff hitter? Hell yes they would, anyone who disputes that is an imbecile
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 08-30-2017 at 10:10 PM.

  2. #32
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    Changes For 2018

    So your saying the Jays would be better with one of the best lead off hitters of all time? Alright then

  3. #33
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    52,472
    Consistency and speed.

    And get rid of Morales so we have have DH open. You can't have guys like Travis and Tulo on the turf full year and not have DH available.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    speed does matter and yes a good leadoff hitter does matter. thats the problem with advanced statistics today. just because the nerds cant quantify it properly they marginalize it.

    HELLO does anybody here remember Rickey Henderson or Bobby Bonds? they affected every game they ever played in and anyone who ever saw them understands that without some fancy stat to prove it. unfortunately the tools we have at present just cant accurately represent what a pair of observant eyes can tell us.

    this is the over reliance in a flawed stat like WAR is creating a bunch of idiots who forget that these are only tools. Bill James the guy who started the Statistical revolution in baseball to begin with repeatedly warned of this. to never let these tools replace your eyes and what you observe

    unfortunately some people find advanced stats as a be all end all, and ignore common sense and what the eyes should easily make obvious, that was the problem with Morales everyone looked at his WAR and said great lets get him, but omly by watching him every day can you see that WAR diesnt show you how he clogs the bases and that matters.

    as time goes by better measures will be derived if course but they never will replace what you see and observe

    would the jays be better if they had a Henderson like leadoff hitter? Hell yes they would, anyone who disputes that is an imbecile
    I also don't think a single person here wanted Morales because of his WAR and you use Rickey Henderson as an example who has some of the best War seasons ever and had 13 years of 5 or better war.

  5. #35
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    Nov 2008
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    27,681
    Speed helps, but I would rather have a guy who gets on base a lot with decent speed than a guy who is fast and can't get on base. Not making an out is important. Not sure why I'm the nerd for not thinking Ben Revere is a good baseball player.

    As far as the topic itself goes I would hope they try to improve the bottom of the roster. Barney and Goins have been bad. With Travis' injury history they need better back up options. Maybe trade for Josh Harrison. Maybe trade for Profar for Tulo insurance. Solarte from the Padres is interesting. As is Gyorko. Maybe Avila to be back up catcher.

    They need one outfielder assuming Alford gets one of the corner spots. It might not be the best idea, but Stanton is intriguing. Team could use a middle of the order bat. He would also improve the defense. I like Puig also.

    On the pitching side I don't mind Marco depending on the costs. They probably need two starters. Maybe Lance Lynn works. I would stay away from Arrieta. Mcgee from the left side would be a good move.

  6. #36
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    honestly i think the most important change is a new hitting coach and complete overhaul of our approach

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    Consistency and speed.

    And get rid of Morales so we have have DH open. You can't have guys like Travis and Tulo on the turf full year and not have DH available.
    Pretty sure with the new dirt infields they barely touch turf too much it's not an issue. Tulo is only good now for defense as a bat no idea how he fell so much so fast.
    Vancouver Canucks
    Toronto Blue Jays
    San Francisco 49's

  8. #38
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    When Ben Revere was with Toronto .... He was reaching 3rd base a lot!

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    This is your big problem. There are ways speed is measured by statistics but there are also benefits that don't show up on the score sheet. Here's a couple off the top of my head:

    1. Speed affects pitchers. As I said in my post above, no pitcher will check on Jose but every pitcher will be thinking about Revere on 1st. This is going to result in quicker action towards the plate which in turn increases the probability of a pitcher making a bad pitch.

    2. Speed affects defence. If you have a speedster on 1st he's going to be held on pretty much every single time which results in a nice big gap to hit the ball into between 1st and 2nd. If a slow poke is on 1st then the 1st baseman can sag off and cover the gap.
    Yeah dude I was agreeing with you. Not about revere specifically but definitely about speed. But it needs to be combined with a bat.

  10. #40
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    Stolen base speed is way overrated. Speed that keeps things moving around the bases is whats important. The O's have good offenses every year and they never steal.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by bomber0104 View Post
    Stolen base speed is way overrated. Speed that keeps things moving around the bases is whats important. The O's have good offenses every year and they never steal.
    The jays don't have that ...

    A lead off hitter can change the complexion of a line up . .. if they get guys like Stanton , Schoop.... its gonna cost them lots!!! If they get a lead off hitter like Dee Gordon... You dont' have to pay 20 million a year . So many times the lineup doesn't even move at all ! Solo shots after solo shots is what they are getting . They need baserunners.. I don't even care about home runs... that will come ! 2015 Royals are good example. Cain had 28 steals but none of them hit 30 homers
    Last edited by 1hardcore; 08-31-2017 at 07:37 PM.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    So your saying the Jays would be better with one of the best lead off hitters of all time? Alright then
    you totally missed the point, your not even in the same galaxy.the point being that Hendersons WAR didnt come close to actually representing his true value. I just used an extreme example to stress the point.

    WAR cannot and never could measure certain aspects of his game, the pressure he put on pitchers when he came up, the effect he had on infielders and defense in general. his combination of speed and power could and did take over a game in nearly any situation. by himself he carried Billy Martin's Athletics to a division title

    WAR cannot accurately account for those factors and reduce them to a number, and you dont need to be the best ever to have some of those traits that are immeasurable. unless you believe Henderson had skills no one else ever has.

    just because WAR can not measure certain skills accurately doesnt mean they dont have value and that we as intelligent beings cannot intuit that those values do exist.... a quality leadoff hitter even if he's not a Henderson is still better than what we have. Playing Bautista or Pillar as a leadoff hitter actually limits our offense

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1hardcore View Post
    The jays don't have that ...

    A lead off hitter can change the complexion of a line up . .. if they get guys like Stanton , Schoop.... its gonna cost them lots!!! If they get a lead off hitter like Dee Gordon... You dont' have to pay 20 million a year . So many times the lineup doesn't even move at all ! Solo shots after solo shots is what they are getting . They need baserunners.. I don't even care about home runs... that will come ! 2015 Royals are good example. Cain had 28 steals but none of them hit 30 homers
    you get it. but it seems most others here dont have a clue

    there is definitely a symbiotic relationship in a properly constructed lineup, like a car that needs a tuneup to run Smoothly, a lineup needs certain aspects and the right mix to perform at peak efficiency

  14. #44
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    Changes For 2018

    Yeah lots of us just can't grasp it Mike we're just too dumb.

    I'll take me a Stanton or Schoop any day over Gordon.

  15. #45
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    Are we talking Jeff Gordon? He'd be a game changer at the top of the order.

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