Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 76
  1. #31
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    san josYAY
    Posts
    18,252
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    A lot of that is because he has among the highest hardest hit %s in the league. That ridiculous average exit velocity is testament to how well he is squaring up the ball.
    That's true, but .410 isn't sustainable no matter how you look at it.
    Miguel Cabrera (1st) has a higher Hard% Med % and LD% than Judge, and he has a BABIP of .306
    Nick Castalanos (2nd)has a higher Hard% Med% and LD% and he has a BABIP of .303
    Corey Seager (4th) has a slightly lower Hard% Higher Med% and similar LD% and a BABIP of .362
    Paul Goldschmidt (5th) has a similar Hard% Higher Med% and and a lower LD% and a BABIP of .353

    While contact type and line drives can explain a higher than average BABIP how do you explain .410?
    Last edited by ciaban; 07-16-2017 at 04:52 PM.

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    5,647
    Quote Originally Posted by lamar2006 View Post
    Other than power what does Judge have over Bellinger? Cody has the total package.
    Seriously? They're both rookies so we have half a season to look at but you should just take a glance really quickly before you say something like that. He's done literally almost everything better, power, contact, walks, defensive value.

    Anything you want to look at wrc+, iso, BB%, BABIP, offensive an defensive runs, WAR ....

    But Cody has been better on the base paths you're right.

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    5,647
    I hate when people say a .410 BABIP is IMPOSSIBLE to sustain. Obviously it's VERY HIGHLY unlikely to sustain.

    But people have hit .400 multiple times so someone has clearly done it. Clearly it CAN be done.

    Likely? **** no but it's not like saying he's on pace to hit 160 homers and saying impossible.
    Last edited by KingPosey; 07-16-2017 at 05:03 PM.

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Los Angeles County, CA
    Posts
    37,742
    Quote Originally Posted by KingPosey View Post
    I hate when people say a .410 BABIP is IMPOSSIBLE to sustain. Obviously it's VERY HIGHLY unlikely to sustain.

    But people have hit .400 multiple times so someone has clearly done it. Clearly it CAN be done.

    Likely? **** no but it's not like saying he's on pace to hit 160 homers and saying impossible.
    Too often people's catch-all

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    27,174
    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    That's true, but .410 isn't sustainable no matter how you look at it.
    Miguel Cabrera (1st) has a higher Hard% Med % and LD% than Judge, and he has a BABIP of .306
    Nick Castalanos (2nd)has a higher Hard% Med% and LD% and he has a BABIP of .303
    Corey Seager (4th) has a slightly lower Hard% Higher Med% and similar LD% and a BABIP of .362
    Paul Goldschmidt (5th) has a similar Hard% Higher Med% and and a lower LD% and a BABIP of .353

    While contact type and line drives can explain a higher than average BABIP how do you explain .410?
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...ves/11061.html

    Well its only happened 23 times in ML history and 4 times since 1937 but if Jose Hernandez can do it, certainly its possible for Judge.

    Part of it might come down to whether he gets tired as the season goes on. I know that sounds lazy but he's never played more than 131 games in a minor league season and they don't call them the dog days of August for nothing. That said, once his body is conditioned to play a full season, would it surprise if he can continue with a ridiculous BABIP? Nope.

    Like Greenmonster said, he's doubled Bellinger's fWAR in only 14 more games as well.
    Last edited by metswon69; 07-16-2017 at 05:50 PM.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    san josYAY
    Posts
    18,252
    Quote Originally Posted by KingPosey View Post
    I hate when people say a .410 BABIP is IMPOSSIBLE to sustain. Obviously it's VERY HIGHLY unlikely to sustain.

    But people have hit .400 multiple times so someone has clearly done it. Clearly it CAN be done.

    Likely? **** no but it's not like saying he's on pace to hit 160 homers and saying impossible.
    No one has hit .400 in like 70 years. BABIP is your ability to have batted balls land in play, that's not something a player can control.

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    san josYAY
    Posts
    18,252
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...ves/11061.html

    Well its only happened 23 times in ML history and 4 times since 1937 but if Jose Hernandez can do it, Judge might be able to as well.

    Part of it might come down to whether he gets tired as the season goes on. I know that sounds lazy but he's never played more than 131 games in a minor league season and they don't call them the dog days of August for nothing. That said, once his body is conditioned to play a full season, would it surprise if he can continue with a ridiculous BABIP? Nope.

    Like Greenmonster said, he's doubled Bellinger's fWAR in only 14 more games as well.
    .360 is ridiculous .410 isn't feasible.

    I wasn't saying Bellinger has out produced him so far.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    27,174
    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    .360 is ridiculous .410 isn't feasible.

    I wasn't saying Bellinger has out produced him so far.
    Whether he has a .400 BABIP wasn't your original point though. Your point was Judge's BABIP is a 120 points higher than Bellinger. Even if the gap is closed, Judge is still beating him in every significant offensive stat. What really anyone was arguing was the the claim could be made that Bellinger>>>Judge or that Bellinger is the complete package and Judge isnt.

    How exactly?

  9. #39
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    33,943
    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    .360 is ridiculous .410 isn't feasible.

    I wasn't saying Bellinger has out produced him so far.
    BABIP doesn't define either of these players performances (despite what you may want to think). Both are doing great but Judge has clearly been superior. That isn't a knock on Bellinger; it is merely facts.

    "there's no shines in my shinebox"

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    san josYAY
    Posts
    18,252
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Whether he has a .400 BABIP wasn't your original point though. Your point was Judge's BABIP is a 120 points higher than Bellinger. Even if the gap is closed, Judge is still beating him in every significant offensive stat. What really anyone was arguing was the the claim could be made that Bellinger>>>Judge or that Bellinger is the complete package and Judge isnt.

    How exactly?
    My point was never that Judge wasn't doing well, just that the gap is due in part to .120 point gap in BABIP, and if that GAP closes, then the gap in their overall production will likely close as well. It might not completely close, I never made that point, and I'm not now, just that if you adjust for such a huge gap in BABIP your likely going to see shirking in the production gap.

  11. #41
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    8,296
    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    No one has hit .400 in like 70 years. BABIP is your ability to have batted balls land in play, that's not something a player can control.
    For pitchers there is relatively little movement in their BAPIPS but from player to player stabilized BAPIPS have quite a bit of volatility from player to player.

    I think Judges expected BAPIP off of his hitting profiles was something along the lines of .365. So there is certainly some regression to be expected but not an insane amount that you would think of some other players.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yankees Farm System

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    8,296
    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    My point was never that Judge wasn't doing well, just that the gap is due in part to .120 point gap in BABIP, and if that GAP closes, then the gap in their overall production will likely close as well. It might not completely close, I never made that point, and I'm not now, just that if you adjust for such a huge gap in BABIP your likely going to see shirking in the production gap.
    Well that kind of goes without saying, but it wouldn't close enough to make it an argument of who's been better. It would still quite clearly be Judge.

    Now future career arc who would you rather have may be a discussion because he's so much younger, but for this season Judge has most definitively out paced him and that's not due to some BAPIP luck at all.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yankees Farm System

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    27,174
    A Dodger fan would have to answer this for me but are they already playing the shift on Bellinger with regularity? Because if they are, you may not see a ton of discrepancy in his BABIP, especially if he is another LH predominant pull hitter.

    He's still going to kill the baseball but where Judge has him beat in that regard is that Aaron uses all fields. I think almost half of his home runs are to RF and RCF. They don't shift on Judge.
    Last edited by metswon69; 07-16-2017 at 09:04 PM.

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    san josYAY
    Posts
    18,252
    Quote Originally Posted by DeW-Star View Post
    For pitchers there is relatively little movement in their BAPIPS but from player to player stabilized BAPIPS have quite a bit of volatility from player to player.

    I think Judges expected BAPIP off of his hitting profiles was something along the lines of .365. So there is certainly some regression to be expected but not an insane amount that you would think of some other players.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Idk, that's still about 50-60 points of regression, that's not small either.
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    A Dodger fan would have to answer this for me but are they already playing the shift on Bellinger with regularity? Because if they are, you may not see a ton of discrepancy in his BABIP, especially if he is another LH predominant pull hitter.

    He's still going to kill the baseball but where Judge has him beat in that regard is that Aaron uses all fields. I think almost half of his home runs are to RF and RCF. They don't shift on Judge.
    While so far he's been a predominately pull hitter, it shifting doesn't do much good against him because he upper cuts the ball so much, a shift is worthless if you hit it over their heads.

  15. #45
    hotdalton18's Avatar
    hotdalton18 is offline Jags&Heat&Dodgers&Gators
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Las Vegas
    Posts
    13,896
    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    A Dodger fan would have to answer this for me but are they already playing the shift on Bellinger with regularity? Because if they are, you may not see a ton of discrepancy in his BABIP, especially if he is another LH predominant pull hitter.

    He's still going to kill the baseball but where Judge has him beat in that regard is that Aaron uses all fields. I think almost half of his home runs are to RF and RCF. They don't shift on Judge.

    They'v been shifting but it'll stop soon cause it's been pointless so far

    He hits everywhere

    A lot of his homers are pulled but he hits everywhere



    2015-16 DPOY


    Hassan Whiteside

Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •