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  1. #676
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Adding fuel to the fire, Buster Olney, just said on ESPN radio, that if Britton becomes available he expects the Cubs to go after him hard. Mentioned no other teams.
    Wow..

  2. #677
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Well...half of those numbers you're using are antiquated. His xFIP is much lower than his FIP, suggesting bad luck. SIERA agrees. His SIERA beteen 2015 and 2016 was top-30, right around Carlos Martinez, Drew Pomeranz, and Cole Hamels.

    Am I giving up Ian Happ for Gausman? No. But I'm very willing to trade something decent for Gausman. He looks lost this year, but if it's a mechanical flaw, then you go for it. The stuff is good. The pedigree (both draft and results in the MLB prior) are good. Kevin Gausman has all the makeup of a good SP.
    So did Ricky Nolasco. So did literally a thousand other guys.

    We're not dripping in prospects anymore. You trade measurable assets for Quintanas, DeGroms, Archers, maybe begrudgingly Grays (I personally don't even go that far).

    Not Kevin Gausmans.

    Furthermore, I don't think antiquated is the proper way to evaluate ERA and FIP. They tell a more matter-of-fact story than do xFIP and SIERA (which of course have their own value as well). How many Samardzija-types do we need to demonstrate that certain guys will never play to what their periphs tell us they "should" be.

    Gausman's in his fifth major league season, it's not a matter of simple guesswork at this juncture. As I said, I've got nothing against him as a scrap heap flier. I'm just not trading a single asset of consequence to acquire his services.


  3. #678
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    Well if Olney is saying something about it maybe this could have legs. Still very difficult to see it . The Dodgers are very interested and pretty much any contender will be . Once again Cubs would probably need to deal a Hitter from big league roster to make this happen.

  4. #679
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Well...half of those numbers you're using are antiquated. ERA/ERA+/WHIP? Honestly, not that interested in those. His xFIP is much lower than his FIP, suggesting bad luck. SIERA agrees. His SIERA beteen 2015 and 2016 was top-30, right around Carlos Martinez, Drew Pomeranz, and Cole Hamels. Gasuman has outpitched those numbers. He's been given a horrible defense. This a team trotting out the 24th worst defense over the last 3 years.

    Am I giving up Ian Happ for Gausman? No. But I'm very willing to trade something decent for Gausman. He looks lost this year, but if it's a mechanical flaw, then you go for it. The stuff is good. The pedigree (both draft and results in the MLB prior) are good. Kevin Gausman has all the makeup of a good SP.
    This is just nitpicking but I've also seen FG writers say that xFIP is becoming obsolete due to the emergence of xWOBA against

  5. #680
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    A better question, is due the cubs have the pieces required to make that trade. At least without compromising the major league roster.
    I mean, like TA3 said, Almora is about as high as I'd be willing to go.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 07-17-2017 at 03:00 PM.

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  6. #681
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I mean it solves the closer role problem for next year and you can never have enough great talent. Just not sure I'm interested in giving up the pieces required. We still need another starter long-term and the bullpen is already is big strength for the team so idk I'm intrigued and nervous
    A better question, is due the cubs have the pieces required to make that trade. At least without compromising the major league roster.

  7. #682
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    Quote Originally Posted by turnaround3 View Post
    So did Ricky Nolasco. So did literally a thousand other guys.

    We're not dripping in prospects anymore. You trade measurable assets for Quintanas, DeGroms, Archers, maybe begrudgingly Grays (I personally don't even go that far).

    Not Kevin Gausmans.

    Furthermore, I don't think antiquated is the proper way to evaluate ERA and FIP. They tell a more matter-of-fact story than do xFIP and SIERA (which of course have their own value as well). How many Samardzija-types do we need to demonstrate that certain guys will never play to what their periphs tell us they "should" be.

    Gausman's in his fifth major league season, it's not a matter of simple guesswork at this juncture. As I said, I've got nothing against him as a scrap heap flier. I'm just not trading a single asset of consequence to acquire his services.
    What's the issue with Ricky Nolasco? Between 2008-2013 Nolasco was a very good SP. If you're comparing 2015-2016 Nolasco to Gasuman, you're way off. His SIERA was well over 4.00. Gasuman killed Nolasco in those 2 years and it wasn't particularly close. Not only that, Nolasco is nothing like Gausman in terms of who they are. I see no reason to bring up Nolasco here. He has nothing to do with this.

    Truthfully, I think the issue here is that I don't believe you accurately gauge SP. You're using statistics like ERA/ERA+/WHIP which all include defensive ability. The Orioles suck dick at defense. They're atrocious. And someone like Gausman, who's not a huge GB% pitcher, loses their only real defensive asset in Machado most of the time. Yes, FIP is fine, I like FIP, but you're using in conjunction with the wrong things. FIP and xFIP help tell a story together. The story on Guasman, as backed up by SIERA, is that he's out pitched his FIP. Yes, this year there's an issue. But it's not an injury issue...it's something new. Something fixable.

    I'd gladly trade players in the Candelario/Almora/Zagunis/Caratini group to get Gausman and not think twice about it. Gausman is the type of pitcher in 2 years, in the right organization that you go "Damn, we should have seen that". He's young, he's got tons of FB velocity (needs work on the secondary offerings. I had originally written "has good" but upon further looking, I disagree with me first assertion. He needs work on the breakers)...he's having a down year. There's a #3 SP there. Hell, he was a #3 SP literally last year. The way you're acting, he's been a bust for a while. He's one year removed from a 3.61 ERA (since you're into that).
    Last edited by 1908_Cubs; 07-17-2017 at 03:03 PM.
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  8. #683
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    This is just nitpicking but I've also seen FG writers say that xFIP is becoming obsolete due to the emergence of xWOBA against
    I could see that. And I'd accept that, too.

    Sadly, I don't see it listed on his FG page, so I don't think they've added that on their site yet, or I'd look at that, too.
    1st Place...the only place that matters


  9. #684
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsInBuffalo View Post
    Almora candy and a lesser arm probably not enough ?
    I mean we gave up Soler for Wade Davis straight up, I'm not sure how much bigger a package a half year of control adds for Britton (whose comparable enough to Davis for me) but, I wouldn't think much more. To me Almora's a better prospect than Soler was when we traded him sooooo whether or not it's enough isn't the question. It probably isn't but it's as high as I'd be willing to go if I'm the Cubs.
    Last edited by La_bibbers; 07-17-2017 at 03:01 PM.

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  10. #685
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    But it's not an injury issue...it's something new. Something fixable.
    You have absolutely no idea whether or not this is the case.


  11. #686
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    Almora candy and a lesser arm probably not enough ?

  12. #687
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsInBuffalo View Post
    Almora candy and a lesser arm probably not enough ?
    For Britton? Not even close, imo.

    Britton has had a few injuries this year, but has been basically a top-3 LHP arm out of the pen. And he's got a year of control. If healthy, he'd probably return closer to Miller did last year (Clint Frazier), but with the injuries will likely drop a bit. That said, the Orioles should hope to do better than Almora and Candy.
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  13. #688
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    For Britton? Not even close, imo.

    Britton has had a few injuries this year, but has been basically a top-3 LHP arm out of the pen. And he's got a year of control. If healthy, he'd probably return closer to Miller did last year (Clint Frazier), but with the injuries will likely drop a bit. That said, the Orioles should hope to do better than Almora and Candy.
    I'm inclined to believe this as well which is why I find the wording in the original tweet so curious. Explicitly said that his industry source said Epstein had "the minor leaguers."


  14. #689
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    I gotta agree with 1908 about Gausman in terms of him likely being a salvagable MORP type. I also agree with both of ya that he's not a guy I think makes perfect sense for this team right now. The pieces required to get him would probably be pieces better off spent on a more surefire arm.

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  15. #690
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_bibbers View Post
    I mean, like TP3 said, Almora is about as high as I'd be willing to go.
    Are we talking about for just Gausman? Because Gausman came up when someone said the only guy from the major league roster they would include to get Britton would be Almora. I then asked if they would start with Happ instead of Almora if Gausman was in the deal with Britton. I never suggested Gausman for Happ. So I am now just checking on what we are actually discussing. You would offer Almora for just Gausman? But not Happ? Or would you only offer Almora from the major league roster (+ minor league players) for Britton and Gausman?

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