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Thread: Trade ideas?

  1. #16
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    He was pretty consistent from 2007-2014. He was sub 4 era all those years, including his first year in Milwaukee. Then he had 2 bad years, but he's only 33, which is hardly ancient for a pitcher.

    So your options are trade him now while his value is starting to rebound (but still likely not very high). Or you can hold him while you're in contention and see what happens. I believe he can be on the payroll for $5 mill next year. If he keeps this up and finishes the year with a 3.8 or so era, he'll probavly have more value this offseason with a full rebound season under his belt and a cheap contract for the coming season.

    If someone is willing to give us a good prospect for him, I'd trade him. If not, it doesn't make a ton of sense to move him just for the sake of moving him, even if we think we have some guys in the minors deserving of being called up. I don't think we are really killing anyone by having them throw a full season in AAA either. And that's assuming we have no injuries to our staff, which is somewhat unlikely. To me, it makes sense to sort of ride this wave and see what happens.

  2. #17
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    I am really hoping we start looking for a front line starter, either in getting a high end prospect in a trade or trading for a younger guy who is controlled for a few years and giving up prospects. I doubt we get a great pitching prospect for any of the guys we could potentially trade so that leaves trading for someone. If we stay above or at .500 I would be all for going after someone this year but maybe in the off season would be a wiser. The guys that come to mind are Chris Archer, Jake Odirizzi, Julio Teheran, Gerritt Cole, or Jose Quintana. I would think there could be a couple of free agents next year who could be had a a respectable price as well that have some top of the rotation ability like Marco Estrada, Chris Tillman, or Lance Lynn.

  3. #18
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    I don't view odorizzi as a top line guy per se, but I agree with the rest. We may have to overpay if we try to get a guy like that at the deadline, but we should be looking for a top line starter who has 2-3 years of control in the near future.

    We have a ton of pitching depth in the minors, but I don't think there's a top line guy in the bunch. Heck, there may no even be a really good number 2 in the bunch. This offense is probably ready to compete and can improve and be supplemented by minor leaguers in the near future. Our rotation likely won't have that luxury. It would be really interesting to see what type of deal it would take to get an archer type.

  4. #19
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    Odirizza had a era of 3.35 2 years ago, 3.69 last year, and 3.14 so far this year going from the AL East to the NL would put him right around a #2 starter. He hasn't logged 200 innings yet but he is better than anything we have, I agree he may not have top of the rotation status yet but I think that is because he is in Tampa.

    I agree that are pitching talent in the minors looks promising but lacks top end guys. I think Hader will be good, he just needs to stay out of Colorado, that place has hurt Lopez, Hader, and Jungmann. I'd perfer Hader comes up early and takes his lumps in the bigs rather than in the thin air of AAA.

  5. #20
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    Odorizzi also has some underlying stats the indicate his era may not be completely sustainable. He won't magically stink, but his fip, strand rate and BABIP all indicate that his era is probably better than it should be. It's possible he's one of those guys who always outperforms his fip. But his strand rate and BABIP, especially this year, is unsustainable.

    I'm souring a little on hader. He has great stuff, but I'm not sure he'll really put it together as a top of the rotation guy. I think he might have a maddeningly inconsistent time as a pitcher. He'll be really good some nights and really poor others. And he hasn't learned how to minimize the pitch count yet, so he's not a big innings eater guy. He can still improve on all of that, but I fear he is going to be similar to yovanni gallardo. He and yovanni are completely different pitchers, but from a results perspective, I think he may end up being really similar in that he'll get you some really good starts where he strikes out 10 but only he's like 5.1 innings and then he'll have some real stinkers too. But he'll have a solid enough season that you keep hoping for the best.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 05-31-2017 at 06:41 PM.

  6. #21
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    I like the Yo comparison and I could live with that, especially the younger version of Yo.

  7. #22
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    If you accept it and realize a young yo was a pretty good pitcher, it's fine. It's jus really frustrating when he would put together some really good performances and every ear you were thinking he'd take the next step.

    I think that's why he sort of wore out his welcome before he left. The expectation was always that he was going to be a stud. He never turned into that, but he was a good to solid starter. That's sort of my expectation for hader, but I fear that's not the expectation for a lot of brewers fans. If he comes up and is a #3/4 type, I think a lot of folks will be disappointed.
    Last edited by crewfan13; 06-02-2017 at 11:58 AM.

  8. #23
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    He is still just 23, and with his side arm delivery I could see him finding a little tweek as he completely fills out and put it together. I think Woodruff and Ortiz will end up to be Jimmy Nelson-esqe type starters and I still think Bickford has top of the rotation stuff if he can put his head on straight. There are a couple younger guys like Peralta, Diplan, Supek, and Burnes (maybe Ponce) who could still be top of the rotation guys if the develop well. Even though there aren't any givens there I would really only say there are 4 or 5 surefire top of the rotation prospects in all of baseball, so it's not to bad.

  9. #24
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    I think there's a group of guys who also have those wonky delivers who get compared to chris sale but those guys are so rare to actually turn into top end guys.

    I'm not giving up on him or anything, but it's also not super common for those guys to turn into top end guys. The good news with hader is that he probably has a really high floor as a really good, potentially dominant relief pitcher.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Odorizzi also has some underlying stats the indicate his era may not be completely sustainable. He won't magically stink, but his fip, strand rate and BABIP all indicate that his era is probably better than it should be. It's possible he's one of those guys who always outperforms his fip. But his strand rate and BABIP, especially this year, is unsustainable.

    I'm souring a little on hader. He has great stuff, but I'm not sure he'll really put it together as a top of the rotation guy. I think he might have a maddeningly inconsistent time as a pitcher. He'll be really good some nights and really poor others. And he hasn't learned how to minimize the pitch count yet, so he's not a big innings eater guy. He can still improve on all of that, but I fear he is going to be similar to yovanni gallardo. He and yovanni are completely different pitchers, but from a results perspective, I think he may end up being really similar in that he'll get you some really good starts where he strikes out 10 but only he's like 5.1 innings and then he'll have some real stinkers too. But he'll have a solid enough season that you keep hoping for the best.
    On Hader, you need to de-sour..you need to sweeten too!


  11. #26
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    What about Justin Verlander, we have money to afford him, I would assume the tigers would eat some of his contract and he would probably would only cost 1 good prospect and 2 mid-tier prospects. His numbers haven't been great but he is throwing hard and his stuff is still great.

  12. #27
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    Not sure I'm in on verlander. I know we have money, but that contract could get bad pretty quickly. He's 34 and always been a guy who's results are tied to velocity. When his velocity dips, he struggles, but when it's good, he can be very good. I'm not sure that type of pitcher ages well.

    I'd rather pay the price for a younger guy like gray. Even if gray struggles as a brewer, or we take a step backward next year, gray will still have trade value and we can likely recoup some of the assets we traded. Verlander probably won't be. If he falls off, you're stuck with him till that contract expires.

    Plus verlander has a no trade clause, so who knows if he'd even accept a trade here.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Not sure I'm in on verlander. I know we have money, but that contract could get bad pretty quickly. He's 34 and always been a guy who's results are tied to velocity. When his velocity dips, he struggles, but when it's good, he can be very good. I'm not sure that type of pitcher ages well.

    I'd rather pay the price for a younger guy like gray. Even if gray struggles as a brewer, or we take a step backward next year, gray will still have trade value and we can likely recoup some of the assets we traded. Verlander probably won't be. If he falls off, you're stuck with him till that contract expires.

    Plus verlander has a no trade clause, so who knows if he'd even accept a trade here.
    I personally would like to basically stand pat or go on a buy-low deal with a Marco Estrada for a middle prospect or two. Don't want to sell the farm to get Sonny Gray. Brewers can go and get guys in free agency. If A's would take Clark-Dubon-Broxton-Bickford or something OK but no way probably after seeing Quintana haul.

  14. #29
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    Problem with free agency is those deals can turn bad quickly. Gray will never be an issue given his age. If he struggles, you can still probably trade him given his history. Granted you won't recoup your losses in a deal, he still has value. And if he leaves in free agency, you're pretty much guaranteed a comp pick.

    Free agents are risky and almost always older. Pretty much every decent available starter will be 30 when they hit free agency next year. We have money, but we are unlikely to offer significantly more money than major markets. Which means, like always, we will probably have to offer the extra year or the opt out clause. Those contracts rarely age. My hesitation is that those types of deals will then coincide with raises for the guys on our team.

    The nice part about gray (or other trade candidates) is that we have them for 2-3 years at most. They will be off the books prior to too many raises going into effect. If we sign a starter to a 4-5 year deal this offseason, that may not be the case.

    And the thing with prospects is that everyone worries about best case scenario. Everyone fears how bad we look if ray turns into a perennial all star and we trade him. Or if isan Diaz reaches his robby cano potential. Or what if Corbin burnes strides were real and he's a number two. Then we trade those guys and gray is only mediocre. We miss the playoffs and everyone looks back and cries. But the other side of the coin is the opposite. What if gray gets traded to an NL team, pitches like an ace, and helps that team win a ring. Then all the prospects we hoarded turn out to be mediocre players or busts. I'd also hate to look back and think the team from this year and next year ends up being the best collection of talent we have and this was our window. Then our prospects come up and we go back to being a mediocre team.

    I guess the point of my ramble is in not advocating overpaying or saying we have to go now. But we have a pretty deep farm, especially at certain positions, mainly OF and middle IF (2nd especially). Realistically, we have a 2nd base spot that could be open in the near future and a CF spot that could open up. If Braun ever moves off of left, then we may have 2 OF spots. But we legit have potentially 3 guys to battle for 2nd and maybe as many as 6-7 to battle for the 1-2 OF spots. We even have quite a few decent, middle of the rotation potential arms. We are going to be okay with we trade a couple of those guys for an improvement now.

  15. #30
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    I really have no problem dealing Ray. Not sold. Don't want to move Brinson is really it. Hader is good but never going to be a starter IMO. Can be a very very good lefty bullpen guy that comes in no matter when but the biggest spot in a game vs. a LH hitter. So, a deal of Ray-Dubon (both top-10) and two top-20s probably aren't getting the deal done for Gray. Lets say Ray-Dubon-Broxton-Bickford or Cordell as PTBN. Does that get deal done?

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