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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotdalton18 View Post
    Completely random question

    But let's pretend the Angels offered Trout for Belly/Buhler and 2 mid level prospects...would you guys do it ?
    I know what my gut tells me.
    I'll check if my brain agrees

    *beginning in 2018
    Trout is expected, per FG projections, to produce about $240 million in value before hitting free agency. He'll be paid basically $100 million over that time. Great deal for the Angels, eh

    Bellinger and Buehler are harder to figure.
    Bellinger has been fantastic so far, but I'll figure in some decline.
    Assuming he's a 3.5 WAR player next year, with some room to grow the next few years, and making up some arbitration salaries for him, I get him producing $293 million while being paid just $62 million.

    Buehler's even harder to figure. FanGraphs has created this chart to determine future value based on a prospect's scouting grade. Buehler's stock has gone up since he was ranked. So, I'll call him a 60 FV now. According to the chart, that's a $34 million future value. Again, making up some arbitration values for him I'll have him being paid $20 million. That might be high for a $34 million expectation of production...whatever.

    So, the Dodgers duo could be expected to produce $330 million while being paid about $82 million.

    Then, there's the two mid-level prospects. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that, I'll call it two 45 FV guys. Those guys have value of about $25 million with minimal salary cost.

    So, $350ish million in production at a cost of $100 something million spread out over the next 6+ years for the Dodger side
    And $240ish million in production at a cost of $100 million over the next 3 years for Trout.

    More production than Trout while being paid the same!
    How could the Angels say no? Why would the Dodgers say yes?

    Well, because of the time value of money, the Dodgers' players actually cost less than Trout because those payments are farther in the future.

    That makes them even cheaper!

    But, their production is also farther in the future, that makes it worth less.

    Actually, a trade that's not completely ridiculous - good for HotDalton


    So, how would it fit for the Dodgers? They'd put the game's best player in CF. Joc could slide over to LF. That leaves Taylor without a position, and no first baseman. Do the Dodgers think that Taylor could keep producing enough to play 1B? I'm not sure. They could also move him to 2B and trade Forsythe. It'd also free up Verdugo to be traded for a 1B (or, I suppose, Joc).

    Adding $33 million in salary might put a dent in the Darvish/Otani dream rotation.
    As might the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. I have the team just under it for next season, with no major acquisitions.

    Acquiring Trout would almost certainly put the team over again, greatly increasing his cost. And it'd make it that much harder to get under it within the next 3 seasons. As will the entering-arbitration-salaries of Joc and Seager.



    So, for reasons of taxes, I think the Dodgers would say no.
    My gut was wrong.

  2. #92
    hotdalton18's Avatar
    hotdalton18 is offline Jags&Heat&Dodgers&Gators
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by hotdalton18 View Post
    Completely random question

    But let's pretend the Angels offered Trout for Belly/Buhler and 2 mid level prospects...would you guys do it ?
    I know what my gut tells me.
    I'll check if my brain agrees

    *beginning in 2018
    Trout is expected, per FG projections, to produce about $240 million in value before hitting free agency. He'll be paid basically $100 million over that time. Great deal for the Angels, eh

    Bellinger and Buehler are harder to figure.
    Bellinger has been fantastic so far, but I'll figure in some decline.
    Assuming he's a 3.5 WAR player next year, with some room to grow the next few years, and making up some arbitration salaries for him, I get him producing $293 million while being paid just $62 million.

    Buehler's even harder to figure. FanGraphs has created this chart to determine future value based on a prospect's scouting grade. Buehler's stock has gone up since he was ranked. So, I'll call him a 60 FV now. According to the chart, that's a $34 million future value. Again, making up some arbitration values for him I'll have him being paid $20 million. That might be high for a $34 million expectation of production...whatever.

    So, the Dodgers duo could be expected to produce $330 million while being paid about $82 million.

    Then, there's the two mid-level prospects. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that, I'll call it two 45 FV guys. Those guys have value of about $25 million with minimal salary cost.

    So, $350ish million in production at a cost of $100 something million spread out over the next 6+ years for the Dodger side
    And $240ish million in production at a cost of $100 million over the next 3 years for Trout.

    More production than Trout while being paid the same!
    How could the Angels say no? Why would the Dodgers say yes?

    Well, because of the time value of money, the Dodgers' players actually cost less than Trout because those payments are farther in the future.

    That makes them even cheaper!

    But, their production is also farther in the future, that makes it worth less.

    Actually, a trade that's not completely ridiculous - good for HotDalton


    So, how would it fit for the Dodgers? They'd put the game's best player in CF. Joc could slide over to LF. That leaves Taylor without a position, and no first baseman. Do the Dodgers think that Taylor could keep producing enough to play 1B? I'm not sure. They could also move him to 2B and trade Forsythe. It'd also free up Verdugo to be traded for a 1B (or, I suppose, Joc).

    Adding $33 million in salary might put a dent in the Darvish/Otani dream rotation.
    As might the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. I have the team just under it for next season, with no major acquisitions.

    Acquiring Trout would almost certainly put the team over again, greatly increasing his cost. And it'd make it that much harder to get under it within the next 3 seasons. As will the entering-arbitration-salaries of Joc and Seager.



    So, for reasons of taxes, I think the Dodgers would say no.
    My gut was wrong.
    Dang that's a really good comment

    An amount of thought I would have never put into that! Lol



    2015-16 DPOY


    Hassan Whiteside

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotdalton18 View Post
    dang that's a really good comment

    an amount of thought i would have never put into that! Lol
    lmao

  4. #94
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    Walker Buehler pitched in relief yesterday. Almost certainly with an eye to being part of the Dodgers' September and playoff bullpen.

    It didn't go real well, he retired 5 hitters, giving up 2 hits, a walk and struck out 2.
    Adrian Gonzalez continued his rehab and had a hit and 2 sac flies.

    Yadier Alvarez K'd 8 in 4 innings for AA Tulsa. He also walked 2 and gave up 3 hits.

  5. #95
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    Ike Davis, former Mets first baseman, pitched his second shout out inning tonight.
    In his first professional inning as a pitcher, he K'd the side.

  6. #96
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    Wilmer Font continues to make noise in Oklahoma City

    He was tagged with a loss today, but, he pitched 6 innings giving up just 1 run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 8.

    On the season he has 168 K's in 125 innings with just 32 walks.

    He was signed as a minor league free agent, but he has a chance to see some time with the big club in September.

    Also, Walker Buehler earned his first professional save. Who cares about saves but, he faced 6 hitters getting 1 ground out and 5 K's. Of his 28 pitches, 21 were strikes and 11 were swinging strikes.

  7. #97
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    FanGraphs' Eric Logenhagen published his updated top 10 prospect lists
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updat...lists-nl-west/

    No real surprises. Buehler, Verdugo, Alarez...


    New information means I'll update my rankings:
    1 - Buehler
    2 - Verdugo
    3 - Alvarez
    4 - Kendall
    5 - Brock Stewart
    6 - Urias
    7 - White
    8 - Diaz
    9 - 12: Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz, Trevor Oaks, Wilmer Font


    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Some comments:
    Most prospect lists focus on upside, I consider proximity to the majors higher than most lists. Hence, Verdugo above Alvarez and the inclusion of Trevor Oaks.
    I included Brock Stewart and Julio Urias who many might omit. I consider a "prospect" to be any player who hasn't established himself at the major league level. And I think that definition applies to both pitchers. Urias would be #1 if not for questions about his ability to come back from his injury.

  8. #98
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    So MLB.com has updated their end of season rankings, with some players exceeding their rookie limits in sept falling off, and a whole season of stats to look at.
    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=la
    The dodgers have 6 top 100 prospects acourding to MLB.com
    #10 Buhler
    #23 Verdugo
    #45 Alverez
    #73 Kendal
    #76 Diaz
    #100 Ruiz
    So that's one top 10, two top 25, three top 50, four or five top 75 and six in the top 100. Though personally I would flip kendal and diaz in my own rankings.

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