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  1. #31
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    Well Jeff Luhnow has made questionable trades before like the Vince Velasquez deal, so you never know. You can't account for how desperate a GM might be or how he values specific players. I'm just saying in my view and for the most part in the view of the consensus... Bregman is more valuable than Matz in a trade.
    Quote Originally Posted by El Patito View Post
    Wow, you just won't let this go will you? I'd be more than happy to provide the numbers again if you'd like. The fact is that Marmol in his best season, put up one of the greatest performances by a reliever in the history of baseball. Better than Rivera? Youre damn right. You can't deny this.
    Marmolololololol

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    Yeah the trade doesn't match up at all. And I do think Matz + Dunn is on the right track here. With that said, you did at one time compare Lyons to Matz so I'm think you probably under value Matz quite a bit.
    After I made it, I realized it wasn't a fair valuation. Though, the comparison (for arguments sake) was how different are they really? And it really just comes down to the home run rates.

    Matz has the upside to be a Jon Lester type one day if he can stay healthy. He has that type of upside.
    I mean, that would be the absolute peak for Matz, and that is a very unlikely landing spot for him.

    By the time Lester had finished his age 25 season, he had 558 big league innings and a career 128 ERA+.

    A few more walks and less strike outs than Matz, but better HR rate coming off back to back 200 inning seasons.
    Though, right now they have basically the same ERA- and FIP- in their careers.

    I like Matz and I think you valued him correctly in your above posts.

    But for a team to acquire him they will want to see him sustain this for longer. It's 168 big league innings while entering his age 26 season. He was a college pitcher and they do tend to dominate the minors better, but he also out performed expectations at every turn.

    2017 is a huge season for his future. Last year was unfortunately cut short. If he had sustained his numbers and had another 8 starts or so and another 50 innings, we would likely be talking about a value closer to Bregman's.


    If we asked what his value was at the start of June of this past season, Matz would be practically untouchable. He looked that good. Then he started getting some injuries and his performance suffered. Just as he started to bounce back, he got hurt again in August. But he still has great stuff, command, athleticism, and makeup for a starting pitcher.
    Well for what it's worth, Cameron didn't even have him on his 50 most valuable trade pieces in baseball at tha time.

    Teams are just going to want to see more.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    In the Texas league and the PCL. While he played in Fresno, it's still the PCL. You are overvaluing a prospect, as opposed to someone who had considerable success in the majors.
    Considerable MLB success?

    You just used his 2016 prospect ranking as the justification for his trade value.


    Matz has 168 big league innings.
    Bregman has 217 big league PA.

    Consider that Bregman had a 115 OPS+ last year, Matz had 121 (128 between both seasons).

    Bregman isn't exactly just a prospect.

    He is arguably the greatest floor level prospect in baseball right now, and is obviously MLB ready.

    Matz is good, but he isn't worth Bregman in a 1 for 1 swap.


    It's an obvious need for both teams, one needs a 3rd baseman that can play different positions and the other needs pitching. As I wrote, the Astros with that rotation is looking at another 700 runs allowed, and another wasted year of Correra, Springer and Altuve.
    Astros could use a starter, I don't disagree.

    But STEAMER has them projected for the 9th best pitching in baseball.
    Keuchel isn't as good as his 2015 self, and isn't as bad as his 2016 self. They project him to have a 3.50 ERA, 3.59 FIP
    McCullers was a top prospect in his own right. Projects for a 3.45 ERA, 3.50 FIP
    McHugh projects for 4.07 ERA/4.10 FIP

    Then Fiers and Morton are the 4 and 5. I'm certain they would love to move Morton out of their necessary rotation or have another starter to anchor around so Morton or Fiers can be their injury reserve.

    All told though, their current rotation projects for a 3.88 ERA, 3.93 FIP

    That's better than the M's - 4.11/4.20
    Rangers - 4.36/4.30
    A's - 4.21/4.13

    and about equal to the Angels - 3.85/3.99 who lack upside, but have a ton of depth to throw out there.

    I also don't see why the Astros would move Bregman.

    STEAMER has them projected to win the AL West with 92.7 wins. Second place is labeled as the Angels and M's fighting it out at 86.7 and 86.1.
    Rangers are projected for only 83 wins, and the A's for 79.2.

    This is a win now team, whose third basemen is controlled for 6 years without an obvious backup solution.

    Gurriel could play third, but he is likely their first basemen unless Reed explodes. And Gurriel is unlikely to play as well as Bregman.

    Bregman would be a shortstop, but that Correa kid is there. He is a very valuable player with what appears to be a 3 WAR floor baring injuries and he will be in the big leagues all season long.

    If I'm the Astros, I'm not even considering moving him. Unless it was for Q, and then I would want Frazier included in that deal (with the Astros obviously giving up more to make the deal equitable).



    fwiw, I think STEAMER is rather bullish on the Angels. If Skaggs and Richards can combine for 5 WAR, they would probably be a playoff team, but I think that's unlikely.


    Last year, the Rangers won 95 games while only scoring 9 more runs than they allowed.
    Mazara should take a step forward, but they lost Desmond and lack outfielder help right now. Beltre was their best hitter and he is turning 38. Though it could now be Lucroy.
    Hamels and Darvish are great rotation anchors and I'd like to think they can be counted on. But their rotation after them leaves a lot to be desired, after those two nobody even projects to be league average. I don't know if this is a 90 win team this year.

    I think the division comes down to the Astros and the Mariners right now. Both have plenty of questions and both have plenty of upside.


    If I'm the Astros. The only trade I'm looking at is for Q. And that's for 3 of their top 5 prospects (note, Bregman isn't a prospect) - named Martes, Tucker, Paulino, Perez, Whitley

    And if that doesn't happen, there isn't much else to go do. Try to win 90+ games this year with the current roster.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 01-10-2017 at 09:53 PM.

  4. #34
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    But seriously, the Mets should call the White Sox about Frazier.

    He is only owed 7.5 million in the last year of his deal and can receive a QO after the year is over (which he won't be accepting unless he gets destroyed or really hurt - another average year and no way he accepts it next off-season).

    He's worth a top 50-75ish level spec in all of baseball. And the Mets could use him in 2017. He could spell Duda at first a few games and let Reyes start. And let Reyes be the backup at second, short, and third. He can also play left in a pinch if an outfielder is hurt or needs a day off.


    I'm sure the White Sox want to do better than their QO could be valued at in a trade. They'll want 20-25 million in surplus value sent back to them (top 50-75 prospect, maybe a mid level player to sweeten the pot).
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 01-10-2017 at 10:05 PM.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jon32 View Post
    Toronto is gonna trade Donaldson this year for sure.
    Shapiro wants a rebuild.

    Dodgers have turner but sure theyd deal Urias, De Leon, Montas, Pederson for him no ?

    Pirates for Glasgow, Bell, Taillon
    They dealt Montas to the A's.

  6. #36
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    IDK would Jose DeLeon be fair value for Alex Bergman?

  7. #37
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    Name one realistic trade you'd like your team to make still this off-season

    No DeLeon isn't fair value for Bregman. That deal wouldn't make sense due to the fact that the Astros arguably have Jose DeLeon in their system already in guys like Joe Musgrove, David Paulino and Francis Martes.

    If they were to ever trade Bregman, it'd have to be for a guy like Quintana or another TORP.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    But seriously, the Mets should call the White Sox about Frazier.

    He is only owed 7.5 million in the last year of his deal and can receive a QO after the year is over (which he won't be accepting unless he gets destroyed or really hurt - another average year and no way he accepts it next off-season).

    He's worth a top 50-75ish level spec in all of baseball. And the Mets could use him in 2017. He could spell Duda at first a few games and let Reyes start. And let Reyes be the backup at second, short, and third. He can also play left in a pinch if an outfielder is hurt or needs a day off.


    I'm sure the White Sox want to do better than their QO could be valued at in a trade. They'll want 20-25 million in surplus value sent back to them (top 50-75 prospect, maybe a mid level player to sweeten the pot).
    I've thought this to. The only prospect the Mets have right now in that spot you suggested is Dominic Smith. Which would fit something the White Sox should be seeking. Other names right after that are Cecchini, Dunn & Nimmo.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    But seriously, the Mets should call the White Sox about Frazier.

    He is only owed 7.5 million in the last year of his deal and can receive a QO after the year is over (which he won't be accepting unless he gets destroyed or really hurt - another average year and no way he accepts it next off-season).

    He's worth a top 50-75ish level spec in all of baseball. And the Mets could use him in 2017. He could spell Duda at first a few games and let Reyes start. And let Reyes be the backup at second, short, and third. He can also play left in a pinch if an outfielder is hurt or needs a day off.


    I'm sure the White Sox want to do better than their QO could be valued at in a trade. They'll want 20-25 million in surplus value sent back to them (top 50-75 prospect, maybe a mid level player to sweeten the pot).
    I don't see the point. We are loaded with depth in the infield and Wright isn't retiring.

    Wright, Reyes, Flores, Rivera, and Cecchini can all play 3B. Acquiring a 3B isn't a need right now.
    Quote Originally Posted by El Patito View Post
    Wow, you just won't let this go will you? I'd be more than happy to provide the numbers again if you'd like. The fact is that Marmol in his best season, put up one of the greatest performances by a reliever in the history of baseball. Better than Rivera? Youre damn right. You can't deny this.
    Marmolololololol

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    IDK would Jose DeLeon be fair value for Alex Bergman?
    If Matz isn't enough for Bregman then De Leon definitely isn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by El Patito View Post
    Wow, you just won't let this go will you? I'd be more than happy to provide the numbers again if you'd like. The fact is that Marmol in his best season, put up one of the greatest performances by a reliever in the history of baseball. Better than Rivera? Youre damn right. You can't deny this.
    Marmolololololol

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    After I made it, I realized it wasn't a fair valuation. Though, the comparison (for arguments sake) was how different are they really? And it really just comes down to the home run rates.


    I mean, that would be the absolute peak for Matz, and that is a very unlikely landing spot for him.

    By the time Lester had finished his age 25 season, he had 558 big league innings and a career 128 ERA+.

    A few more walks and less strike outs than Matz, but better HR rate coming off back to back 200 inning seasons.
    Though, right now they have basically the same ERA- and FIP- in their careers.

    I like Matz and I think you valued him correctly in your above posts.

    But for a team to acquire him they will want to see him sustain this for longer. It's 168 big league innings while entering his age 26 season. He was a college pitcher and they do tend to dominate the minors better, but he also out performed expectations at every turn.

    2017 is a huge season for his future. Last year was unfortunately cut short. If he had sustained his numbers and had another 8 starts or so and another 50 innings, we would likely be talking about a value closer to Bregman's.



    Well for what it's worth, Cameron didn't even have him on his 50 most valuable trade pieces in baseball at tha time.

    Teams are just going to want to see more.
    Just FYI... Matz was drafted out of high school not college. The reason he took so long was because he had TMJ surgery.

    As far as being a top 50 trade piece... I'm sure Matz is right outside of that. That would seem about right.
    Quote Originally Posted by El Patito View Post
    Wow, you just won't let this go will you? I'd be more than happy to provide the numbers again if you'd like. The fact is that Marmol in his best season, put up one of the greatest performances by a reliever in the history of baseball. Better than Rivera? Youre damn right. You can't deny this.
    Marmolololololol

  12. #42
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    Well Giolitto is in the top 50, and his 70 fastball is flat as a lake.

    The real question is Bregman going to be an elite player. My gut tells me no.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    Well Giolitto is in the top 50, and his 70 fastball is flat as a lake.

    The real question is Bregman going to be an elite player. My gut tells me no.
    I don't think Bregman will be an elite player or this great Hall of Fame career or anything.

    He is widely considered a high floor player. He looks like a perennial 3 WAR third basemen. And having that out of a kid with some upside and six years of control is very valuable.

    If you could pencil in 15 WAR over the next six seasons out of a third basemen that will cost around 25ish million in total. That's an incredible value.

    A lot of prospects are boom or bust. They are one injury away from being worthless or replacement level. But Bregman is one of the few that carry a high floor. He appears to be, at the very worst, a starter level player at the MLB level.

    But I don't know how many 5 WAR seasons you'll see from him either.

    Prospects come in a variety of colors and shapes. Some carry higher floors where you expect them to at least contribute a the big league level. Wil Myers, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson. Their upsides could be limited, but they should at least by MLB regulars for several years. And then you have low floor, high ceiling prospects. As a Mets fan, Asmed Rosario is an example (though he, and the others I'll name have higher floors than most). He could be a 6+ WAR shortstop in the big leagues. Or he could never make it because of a number of factors. Others like this are Joey Gallo, Victor Robles, Albies, etc.

    An ideal system has a smattering and mixture of both. You want some guys that you can count on graduating and contributing. And you want some hopeful superstars, even if most won't ever make it.

    If your system could have 1 or 2 high floor guys, even if they are just 1-2 WAR players, and then 5-6 really high ceilings that may never make it. That's a good start to a system.


    Bregman has a high floor, but the ceiling isn't probably that high. I just don't know how much more development is left in his bat. He could be a .800-.850 OPS third basemen. His ceiling was that of a .900 OPS SS, but I think that ship has probably sailed, especially with Correa on the team.

    He could also move to second if needed, but Altuve is basically a superstar. So the Stros will play him at third where I imagine he becomes a staple.

    If I'm the Astros, I keep my hopefully 15 WAR third basemen from 2017-2022 and find pitching where I can.

  14. #44
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    Not saying that isn't valuable, it is exactly the type of player he will eventually be, a 3 WAR player. At least in my opinion.

    And guess what Matz is?
    A 3 WAR pitcher.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    Not saying that isn't valuable, it is exactly the type of player he will eventually be, a 3 WAR player. At least in my opinion.

    And guess what Matz is?
    A 3 WAR pitcher.
    With one less year of control and position players get hurt less frequently than pitchers. That's 3 less WAR for the Astros in that one for one swap. Thus, add someone like Dunn.

    And he's 3 years younger.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 01-11-2017 at 05:04 PM.

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