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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    With one less year of control and position players get hurt less frequently than pitchers. That's 3 less WAR for the Astros in that one for one swap. Thus, add someone like Dunn.

    And he's 3 years younger.
    What will Dunn project to be?
    More than 3 wins. Don't you think.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    What will Dunn project to be?
    More than 3 wins. Don't you think.
    Low floor. The chance of him reaching that 3 WAR are very low.

    Dunn's chances of even making the big leagues is fairly low (though I would imagine he will with the Mets system). He has great potential, but he's far away and has a low floor.

    His 5 year projection is going to be very low in WAR totals, he was literally just taken in this years draft and won't be sniffing any top 100 prospect lists this off-season.

    Historically speaking.
    The 16-20th picks in the big leagues have a combined
    7.34 career WAR average

    for every Roger Clemens, there are 25 failures.

    The greats in this list are Halladay, Mussina, Clemens

    Less than 30% of the players drafted in this range ever reach that 3 WAR.


    This is the lottery tickets that you were describing when talking about prospects. Bregman isn't the lotto ticket, Dunn is.

    That's why you would need someone like Dunn to equate the values of Bregman and Matz in a current day trade.

    To look at this another way.

    Bregman has about 100 million in surplus value right now.
    He should earn about 25ish million and be worth about 130 million in value to his team

    Matz has about 80 million in surplus value right now.
    He should earn about 25ish million and be worth about 110 million in value to this team.


    So you need about 20 million in surplus value to make that equal. That's a little more than Dunn himself in value required to equate the trades as Dunn is around 10-15ish million in surplus value.

    The ish is for a number of reasons obviously.



    Bregman and Matz are MLB ready guys who we know quite a bit about. Dunn is all projection.

  3. #48
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    He will be in high A this year. And a 1st round pick. And while the Mets have struggled to develop young positional players, their ability to extract the most of talent out of their pitching prospects has been stellar sans Montero.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    No DeLeon isn't fair value for Bregman. That deal wouldn't make sense due to the fact that the Astros arguably have Jose DeLeon in their system already in guys like Joe Musgrove, David Paulino and Francis Martes.

    If they were to ever trade Bregman, it'd have to be for a guy like Quintana or another TORP.
    I guess they do have worse versions of DeLeon, most teams do, but DeLeon has 2 plus pitches a reliable 3rd pitch (which only musgrove has) and better comand.
    Guys that get lots of Strike outs and don't walk hitters are always in demand.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    I guess they do have worse versions of DeLeon, most teams do, but DeLeon has 2 plus pitches a reliable 3rd pitch (which only musgrove has) and better comand.
    Guys that get lots of Strike outs and don't walk hitters are always in demand.
    I'll take Martes over De Leon. 3 years younger and his stuff is just as dominating. Sub 3 FIP at AA lastyear despite an awful first month.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    No DeLeon isn't fair value for Bregman. That deal wouldn't make sense due to the fact that the Astros arguably have Jose DeLeon in their system already in guys like Joe Musgrove, David Paulino and Francis Martes.

    If they were to ever trade Bregman, it'd have to be for a guy like Quintana or another TORP.
    I guess they do have worse versions of DeLeon, most teams do, but DeLeon has 2 plus pitches a reliable 3rd pitch (which only musgrove has) and better comand.
    Guys that get lots of Strike outs and don't walk hitters are always in demand.
    But they have multiple guys that are close, trading for DeLeon makes no sense. Especially when you're giving up a top position prospect who is in the majors and still has 6 years of control.

    They'd be giving up something they need for something they basically have multiple of. Again, it doesn't make sense.

  7. #52
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    Name one realistic trade you'd like your team to make still this off-season

    Jays trade Pompey-Girodo-Harris and Smoak(Jays pay remaining salary) for Stephen Vogt and Sean Doolittle

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Low floor. The chance of him reaching that 3 WAR are very low.

    Dunn's chances of even making the big leagues is fairly low (though I would imagine he will with the Mets system). He has great potential, but he's far away and has a low floor.

    His 5 year projection is going to be very low in WAR totals, he was literally just taken in this years draft and won't be sniffing any top 100 prospect lists this off-season.

    Historically speaking.
    The 16-20th picks in the big leagues have a combined
    7.34 career WAR average

    for every Roger Clemens, there are 25 failures.

    The greats in this list are Halladay, Mussina, Clemens

    Less than 30% of the players drafted in this range ever reach that 3 WAR.


    This is the lottery tickets that you were describing when talking about prospects. Bregman isn't the lotto ticket, Dunn is.

    That's why you would need someone like Dunn to equate the values of Bregman and Matz in a current day trade.

    To look at this another way.

    Bregman has about 100 million in surplus value right now.
    He should earn about 25ish million and be worth about 130 million in value to his team

    Matz has about 80 million in surplus value right now.
    He should earn about 25ish million and be worth about 110 million in value to this team.


    So you need about 20 million in surplus value to make that equal. That's a little more than Dunn himself in value required to equate the trades as Dunn is around 10-15ish million in surplus value.

    The ish is for a number of reasons obviously.



    Bregman and Matz are MLB ready guys who we know quite a bit about. Dunn is all projection.
    I think it's about right to say adding Dunn makes it close to an even value. Dunn is not some super prospect, but he does carry some value. He has a high ceiling and even looking at his floor... I still think there is at least a good chance he would be successful as a reliever if he failed as a starter. I could see him possibly cracking the top 100 at some point this season.
    Quote Originally Posted by El Patito View Post
    Wow, you just won't let this go will you? I'd be more than happy to provide the numbers again if you'd like. The fact is that Marmol in his best season, put up one of the greatest performances by a reliever in the history of baseball. Better than Rivera? Youre damn right. You can't deny this.
    Marmolololololol

  9. #54
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    the astros refused to include bregman in any offer for Sale, Archer, or Quintana. They arent doing a 1 for 1 swap for matz.

    You used the pre-2016 rankings to discredit bregman's value, then ignore that he was universally top 5 at the mid season updates.

    After starting 1-32 in his initial adjustment to the big leagues, Bregman was about as valuable as Springer the rest of the season. His august #s: .274/.333/.479/.812. 120 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .205 ISO in 129 PA. In Sept/Oct he hit .323/.344/.629/.973, 160wRC+, .404wOBA, .306 ISO in 66 PA. His walk rate dipped because he got slightly over-aggressive, but he was killing the ball and kept his k-rate flat.

    I know it's some small sample size, but he killed pitching all year except for his initial transition to the majors. This coincided with his transition to playing 3rd base for the first time, and yet he still looked like a gold glove type fielder. Dude's gonna be a consistent 3.5-4 WAR 3rd baseman with a season or two that peak at 5+ IMO.
    The Most Epic Thread EVER
    Quote Originally Posted by dbroncos78087 View Post
    Yea what is he thinking not wanting to drive next to or near drunk people. I have never met a more sheltered scaredy cat. As a hobby i find 10-15 homeless guys and give them lots of alcohol and play bumper cars all day but im normal.

  10. #55
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    Depends if A's are buyers or sellers. They have close to 0 shot of making noise this year, but Beane has never gone full blown re-build mode (even last season, trading for K Davis and reforming that bullpen were signs of trying to be competitive). So I'll give you 2 trades I'd like to see, based on those 2 scenarios (players listed in order of MLB P, MLB pos, MiLB P, MiLB pos regardless of value)

    A's as sellers:
    Oak gets - OF David Dahl, SP Kyle Freeland
    Col gets - SP Sonny Gray, SP Jesse Hahn, 1B Rangel Ravelo

    A's as buyers:
    Oak gets - SP Danny Duffy, 1B Eric Hosmer
    KC gets - 1B Yonder Alonso, SP Raul Alcantara, SP Daniel Gossett, SS Franklin Barreto, 1B/OF Matt Olson

    Kinda hard to pick the partner for A's being buyers as the only full blown sellers this off-season are the White Sox? Kinda the Rays (as usual), maybe the Tigers (but looks like not anymore), and the Reds want to be but are kinda handcuffed?

    But both look sexy to me as an A's fan, and I'm not sure if either KC or Miami say "no"?

    Colorado frees up its OF logjam to allow Ian Desmond to move to OF again and possibly make a run at Trumbo, Chris Carter, Napoli, etc, to play 1B instead. In return, they get an (hopefully returning to form) Ace, a decent #3-5 starter, and a 1B for the future who has power. Seems like a win-win, while admittedly they are giving up a lot of valuable youth.

    A's get an OF for the future (which they desperately need...can he play CF lol?) and another good SP prospect.

    In the other scenario, KC has a ton of contracts expiring in 2018 (Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Duffy, Vargas) and hey, A's and Royals have been trade buddies a couple times recently, so let's keep the relationship going! Though I'm not sure what KC's plans are for the future. It appears they're "in" for 2017, but afterwards? Hmm...

    In this case, KC gets their SS of the future in Barreto, a Top 10 SP prospect from the A's, a SP prospect w/ MLB starts, a future solid 1B/OF, and an MLB 1B to play this season. It really comes down to who they think they WON'T re-sign. But I'm making them an offer before they can decide and I want Duffy and Hosmer as A's NEED a 1B bad and a solid #2 is great.

    As the A's, I'm pretty much betting the house (#1, #7ish, #8~15ish prospects in Barreto, Gossett, and Olson respectively) that the Duffy and Hosmer rentals make me a competitor for the playoffs in a killer AL West. If I'm out of playoff contention come July, well, then I just trade them away.

    A's as buyers is much more difficult b/c they need a LOT of help and I'm not sure any single trade besides KC or ChiSox (Quintana AND Abreu blockbuster deal?) will get the job done as all they have for prospect value outside of SP is SS and 3B (Matt Chapman). Their farm is really thin outside of pitching.

    But any Rockies or Royals fans out there, I'd gladly hear some constructive criticism.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    But they have multiple guys that are close, trading for DeLeon makes no sense. Especially when you're giving up a top position prospect who is in the majors and still has 6 years of control.

    They'd be giving up something they need for something they basically have multiple of. Again, it doesn't make sense.
    None of them are ranked anywhere near de leon, even if some have a compareable cieling, none have his floor. And your trading 6 years of control for.....6 years of controll.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Cheesesteak View Post
    Depends if A's are buyers or sellers. They have close to 0 shot of making noise this year, but Beane has never gone full blown re-build mode (even last season, trading for K Davis and reforming that bullpen were signs of trying to be competitive). So I'll give you 2 trades I'd like to see, based on those 2 scenarios (players listed in order of MLB P, MLB pos, MiLB P, MiLB pos regardless of value)

    A's as sellers:
    Oak gets - OF David Dahl, SP Kyle Freeland
    Col gets - SP Sonny Gray, SP Jesse Hahn, 1B Rangel Ravelo

    A's as buyers:
    Oak gets - SP Danny Duffy, 1B Eric Hosmer
    KC gets - 1B Yonder Alonso, SP Raul Alcantara, SP Daniel Gossett, SS Franklin Barreto, 1B/OF Matt Olson

    Kinda hard to pick the partner for A's being buyers as the only full blown sellers this off-season are the White Sox? Kinda the Rays (as usual), maybe the Tigers (but looks like not anymore), and the Reds want to be but are kinda handcuffed?

    But both look sexy to me as an A's fan, and I'm not sure if either KC or Miami say "no"?

    Colorado frees up its OF logjam to allow Ian Desmond to move to OF again and possibly make a run at Trumbo, Chris Carter, Napoli, etc, to play 1B instead. In return, they get an (hopefully returning to form) Ace, a decent #3-5 starter, and a 1B for the future who has power. Seems like a win-win, while admittedly they are giving up a lot of valuable youth.

    A's get an OF for the future (which they desperately need...can he play CF lol?) and another good SP prospect.

    In the other scenario, KC has a ton of contracts expiring in 2018 (Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Duffy, Vargas) and hey, A's and Royals have been trade buddies a couple times recently, so let's keep the relationship going! Though I'm not sure what KC's plans are for the future. It appears they're "in" for 2017, but afterwards? Hmm...

    In this case, KC gets their SS of the future in Barreto, a Top 10 SP prospect from the A's, a SP prospect w/ MLB starts, a future solid 1B/OF, and an MLB 1B to play this season. It really comes down to who they think they WON'T re-sign. But I'm making them an offer before they can decide and I want Duffy and Hosmer as A's NEED a 1B bad and a solid #2 is great.

    As the A's, I'm pretty much betting the house (#1, #7ish, #8~15ish prospects in Barreto, Gossett, and Olson respectively) that the Duffy and Hosmer rentals make me a competitor for the playoffs in a killer AL West. If I'm out of playoff contention come July, well, then I just trade them away.

    A's as buyers is much more difficult b/c they need a LOT of help and I'm not sure any single trade besides KC or ChiSox (Quintana AND Abreu blockbuster deal?) will get the job done as all they have for prospect value outside of SP is SS and 3B (Matt Chapman). Their farm is really thin outside of pitching.

    But any Rockies or Royals fans out there, I'd gladly hear some constructive criticism.
    Why do the A's want Hosmer though? For just one year and he is basically James Loney all over again. And I imagine the Royals will be extending Duffy. I imagine they will want more and will want to parcel out the players they do sell.

    I just don't see the fit on the second scenario.

    I don't see Colorado trading Dahl for anyone. Other outfielders, namely Parra are likely to be moved. But not Dahl. And I don't know that anyone will give up for Gray what they would have a year ago.

    Gray needs to perform first half and then his trade value can be reclaimed.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    But they have multiple guys that are close, trading for DeLeon makes no sense. Especially when you're giving up a top position prospect who is in the majors and still has 6 years of control.

    They'd be giving up something they need for something they basically have multiple of. Again, it doesn't make sense.
    None of them are ranked anywhere near de leon, even if some have a compareable cieling, none have his floor. And your trading 6 years of control for.....6 years of controll.
    MLB.com top 100
    Francis Martes 29
    Jose DeLeon 33

    Baseball America mid season top 100
    Francis Martes 29
    Jose DeLeon 25

    MinorLeagueBall.com top 100
    Francis Martes 19
    Jose DeLeon 5

    So based just off these 3 rankings, you can't say Martes isn't ranked anywhere near DeLeon. He's on the same level, he's a very young 21 year old already in AA and will be in AAA to start this season. DeLeon is 24 will turn 25 during the season and doesn't have a place in the Dodgers rotation at the moment.

    So I'd rather have Martes and Bregman moving forward instead of Martes and DeLeon.

    So again the deal makes no sense for the Astros.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I just don't see the fit on the second scenario.
    Well, I'm trying to get into the mind of Billy Beane, after all...

    But really, in Hosmer you get a GG All-Star 1B. A's need a ton of help, and 1B is arguably the biggest need now that the OF has been addressed to an extent. And as stated, if it's not working out, A's can always flip him mid-season.

    But alas, yeah that KC scenario ain't happening since the Duffy news today.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I don't see Colorado trading Dahl for anyone. Other outfielders, namely Parra are likely to be moved. But not Dahl. And I don't know that anyone will give up for Gray what they would have a year ago.

    Gray needs to perform first half and then his trade value can be reclaimed.
    Yeah I was trying to gauge the perceived value of Dahl. CarGo makes more realistic sense, but that's not what I want if I'm in seller/rebuild mode.

    And agreed on Gray, but I tried making my case as a salesman w/ that package.

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Why do the A's want Hosmer though? For just one year and he is basically James Loney all over again. And I imagine the Royals will be extending Duffy. I imagine they will want more and will want to parcel out the players they do sell.

    I just don't see the fit on the second scenario.

    I don't see Colorado trading Dahl for anyone. Other outfielders, namely Parra are likely to be moved. But not Dahl. And I don't know that anyone will give up for Gray what they would have a year ago.

    Gray needs to perform first half and then his trade value can be reclaimed.
    The Astros remain in contact with the Athletics on starting pitcher Sonny Gray, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. The Astros have added Charlie Morton this offseason, but the club has been trying to add a big-name starting pitcher to put at the top of the rotation behind Dallas Keuchel.

    Gray, 27, was limited to 22 starts in the 2016 season due to a forearm issue. His stats left a lot to be desired, as he finished with a 5-11 record, a 5.69 ERA, and a 94/42 K/BB ratio over 117 innings. Considering how Gray pitched in the previous three years, hes a good bet to bounce back.

    Gray is under team control through 2019, which is a big draw for the Astros. Needless to say, the Athletics would want a haul in terms of prospects. Gray will earn $3.575 million in 2017, having avoided arbitration in his first year of eligibility.
    http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/01/16/...on-sonny-gray/

    Looks like the A's think he is worth a bunch.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

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