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  1. #61
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    Nov 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    Why would they drop the price on him? Look at what the Rangers gave up for Cole Hamels, 3 top 50 prospects plus two AAA SP and Matt Harrison for Hamels when he was 31 and owed $100M and it wasn't in an insane seller's market. Sale should be worth more than what Hamels got the Phillies.
    I look at trades in terms of values vs contracts along with needs and the market.

    In a neutral market (all things are equal) a top 5ish prospect usually carries roughly a 50-75 million dollar surplus value, a top 25ish is roughly 50 million, 25-50 range or specs around 25-35 million, top 50-100 roughly 15-20ish million.

    These are rough assumptions, and it also depends on how toolsy vs how athletic the guys are as well, as well pitchers vs position players and the positions they play. Also, some teams may value some career aspects differently than others....in other words, this isn't gospel, but it's a good base line.

    Chris Sale though has an *** ton of surplus value on a team which I think has a bit of an identity crisis in figuring out the direction they want to go in. If they decide to rebuild, they have incredible pieces to rebuild with and I would vote that they should blow the team up and come back with the best system in baseball. But they also have very nice pieces that they could piece together a good team around. Sign a decent back end starter and fill in a couple of offensive holes on one or two year deals and they could surprise for a WC or a division title in the competitive AL Central while they have Quintana and Sale under good contracts. But also doing so and missing and needing to unload those guys at diminish values would also make their rebuild further behind where it could be. It's something they need to identify in their front office.

    If they choose that blowing the team up, or deciding to just trade Sale for example could bring back some value. And the best time to trade Sale would be this off-season when he would easily be the best pitcher available all winter. There aren't great starers available in free agency now that Strasburg was extended. And we saw the Red Sox pay over $300 milllion with opt outs for a guy of Sales talent last winter.

    So what would Sale be worth in a trade in my opinion?

    I think Sale is worth around $40 million per season to a team.

    His contract sees him set to make 12 million in 17, 12.5 in 18, and 13.5 in 19 on club options that are certain to be picked up regardless of performance at this point (maybe 19 could be dropped if he has a major injury).

    That's $38 million for a guy that is worth roughly $120 million. That's $82 million in surplus value, which is worth at least a top 5 prospect and another lower level prospect.

    Add in a tax of I would say $25 million for a depleted pitching market this off-season (that's a random estimate, since it's so hard to value) and you have $107 million in surplus value.

    That's a top 5 prospect plus, a top 25-50 and another top 50-100...plus probably some filler.

    Let's say the Red Sox wanted him:
    That's Moncada plus Devers plus Kopech and maybe a filler reliever or something

    I don't know that a lot of teams could top that package because of Moncada alone. If the Red Sox would refuse to include Moncada then other teams would have a pretty good chance to beat it, though Benintendi would make for an interesting counter proposal.

    The Nationals could build something around Giolito and Robles if they wanted to
    The Astros could build something around Bregman if they wanted to
    The Rangers could possibly build something, though Gallo wouldn't be enough as a center piece in my opinion.
    If the Mets wanted to build something around Rosario and a couple of their current starters that could possibly happen.
    The Cubs could possibly do it if they wanted to part with Schwarber, but I doubt they have interest in that. But they would most certainly have to part from their big league roster to do it.
    If the Cards wanted to trade Reyes they could start a trade there, but I don't think they have the filler the White Sox would require.

    Just my two cents.
    That's a pretty damn good post Jeffy.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    And if the Sox wanted to really unload this off-season....just some thoughts.

    Let's say the Red Sox wanted to part with Moncada plus Devers plus Kopech for Sale and the White Sox agreed to that.
    Then the Sox could also offer up Quintana who has probably $125 million in surplus value in this same market. In other words, they could fetch the same package for him as they could for Sale because of the additional year of control and people probably don't realize that he is as good as Madison Bumgarner.

    Let's say the Red Sox gave up the Moncada package (so a second basemen) with a future third basemen/COF and the Nationals gave up a package around Robles and some pitching

    the White Sox could still sell Eaton (borderline top 10 MVP candidate on a team friendly contract) and Frazier (should get a top 50-100 prospect, maybe better considering the weakness that is third base right now in the MLB). And then Abreu should net some decent prospects.

    Keep Rodon because his value isn't high enough for his potential and maybe see if anyone wants Lawrie or let him play third base and hopefully he rebuilds some value.

    I realize this is easily a last place team they would have. But they would also have the best farm system in baseball and possibly a great team in 2019-2020.

    Just depends on the calculations the White Sox come up with (on rebuild vs assemble).

    And I almost forgot about David Robertson who I know the Cardinals would love to have on the secondary closer market behind Chapman, Melancon, and Jansen. He has some surplus value too.

    The White Sox have great pieces if they decide to rebuild and could easily have the best farm system in baseball.
    Yep, I couldn't have said it any better myself.

  3. #63
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    Nov 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by astrosmaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Pitching market is night and day.

    Last year teams could save their prospects and buy Price, Cueto, Shark, Lackey, Hill, etc

    Hellickson just accepted his QO, so there's like, Jason Hammel, Hill, and... nothing exciting.
    i think he might have meant at the deadline last year, not last offseason
    He clearly meant last offseason when Shark, Price and Cueto were all free agents.

  4. #64
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    Apr 2008
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    IL
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    8,656
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I look at trades in terms of values vs contracts along with needs and the market.

    In a neutral market (all things are equal) a top 5ish prospect usually carries roughly a 50-75 million dollar surplus value, a top 25ish is roughly 50 million, 25-50 range or specs around 25-35 million, top 50-100 roughly 15-20ish million.

    These are rough assumptions, and it also depends on how toolsy vs how athletic the guys are as well, as well pitchers vs position players and the positions they play. Also, some teams may value some career aspects differently than others....in other words, this isn't gospel, but it's a good base line.

    Chris Sale though has an *** ton of surplus value on a team which I think has a bit of an identity crisis in figuring out the direction they want to go in. If they decide to rebuild, they have incredible pieces to rebuild with and I would vote that they should blow the team up and come back with the best system in baseball. But they also have very nice pieces that they could piece together a good team around. Sign a decent back end starter and fill in a couple of offensive holes on one or two year deals and they could surprise for a WC or a division title in the competitive AL Central while they have Quintana and Sale under good contracts. But also doing so and missing and needing to unload those guys at diminish values would also make their rebuild further behind where it could be. It's something they need to identify in their front office.

    If they choose that blowing the team up, or deciding to just trade Sale for example could bring back some value. And the best time to trade Sale would be this off-season when he would easily be the best pitcher available all winter. There aren't great starers available in free agency now that Strasburg was extended. And we saw the Red Sox pay over $300 milllion with opt outs for a guy of Sales talent last winter.

    So what would Sale be worth in a trade in my opinion?

    I think Sale is worth around $40 million per season to a team.

    His contract sees him set to make 12 million in 17, 12.5 in 18, and 13.5 in 19 on club options that are certain to be picked up regardless of performance at this point (maybe 19 could be dropped if he has a major injury).

    That's $38 million for a guy that is worth roughly $120 million. That's $82 million in surplus value, which is worth at least a top 5 prospect and another lower level prospect.

    Add in a tax of I would say $25 million for a depleted pitching market this off-season (that's a random estimate, since it's so hard to value) and you have $107 million in surplus value.


    That's a top 5 prospect plus, a top 25-50 and another top 50-100...plus probably some filler.

    Let's say the Red Sox wanted him:
    That's Moncada plus Devers plus Kopech and maybe a filler reliever or something

    I don't know that a lot of teams could top that package because of Moncada alone. If the Red Sox would refuse to include Moncada then other teams would have a pretty good chance to beat it, though Benintendi would make for an interesting counter proposal.

    The Nationals could build something around Giolito and Robles if they wanted to
    The Astros could build something around Bregman if they wanted to
    The Rangers could possibly build something, though Gallo wouldn't be enough as a center piece in my opinion.
    If the Mets wanted to build something around Rosario and a couple of their current starters that could possibly happen.
    The Cubs could possibly do it if they wanted to part with Schwarber, but I doubt they have interest in that. But they would most certainly have to part from their big league roster to do it.
    If the Cards wanted to trade Reyes they could start a trade there, but I don't think they have the filler the White Sox would require.

    Just my two cents.
    I got a question on this. Wouldn't the Red Sox (or whomever) need to pay the White Sox the full value of Sale over the next 3 years (+ the aforementioned Tax), so essentially 145?

    The 82 you mention strictly the surplus value. But wouldn't the team need to 100% match his worth, and not just the surplus value?

  5. #65
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pierzynski4Prez View Post
    I got a question on this. Wouldn't the Red Sox (or whomever) need to pay the White Sox the full value of Sale over the next 3 years (+ the aforementioned Tax), so essentially 145?

    The 82 you mention strictly the surplus value. But wouldn't the team need to 100% match his worth, and not just the surplus value?
    If they are matching surplus values vs contract dollars, I wouldn't believe so. The Sox would be getting 6 years of cost control on the players they receive.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #66
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    Mar 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I mean....that's going to cost Urias, De Leon, and Verdugo, and probably some others like Anderson

    The price would be insane to land both in one trade. Sox are better off parting each of these guys separately.
    I agree. I dont see them doing it. I think it is much more likely that the Dodgers trade for Verlander and Kinsler who will likely save the Dodgers Urias though De Leon and Verdugo still probably go in that deal. Both those guys are in their mid 30s and Verlander isn't exactly cost effective either.

  7. #67
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    Dec 2008
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    2,156
    LAA & NYM TRADE IDEA.

    - ANGELS TRADE OF M.TROUT & 1B A.PUJOLS(W/CASH CONSIDERATIONS; ANGELS EAT 40 MILLION OF REMAINING 140 MILLION LEFT) TO METS FOR 1B/DH L.DUDA, IF W.FLORES, OF M.CONFORTO, RHP'S Z.WHEELER & R.GSOLLMEN, & 1B PROSPECT DOMINIC SMITH.

    METS LINEUP:

    1- REYES 3B
    2- GRANDY RF
    3- TROUT CF
    4. BRUCE LF
    5. PUJOLS 1B
    6. CABRERA SS
    7. WALKER 2B
    8. D'ANAURD C

    ROTATION: THOR/DEGROM/HARVEY/MATZ/LUGO.

    ANGELS PROJECTED STARTERS:

    C- BANDY
    1B- CRON
    2B- FLORES
    SS- SIMMONS
    3B- ESCOBAR
    LF- CONFORTO
    CF- MAYBIN
    RF- CALHOUN
    DH- DUDA

    ROTATION: RICHARDS/SHOEMAKER/SKAGGS/WHEELER/GSOLLMEN

    THOUGHTS? AS A MET FAN, I'D MAKE THIS TRADE IN A HEARTBEAT! TO ACQUIRE THE BEST POSITION PLAYER IN BASEBALL(TROUT), I'D TAKE ON PUJOLS DEAL IN A HEARTBEAT. BESIDES; PUJOLS > DUDA.

    FOR THE ANGELS, They rid themselves of the Pujols Deal. They also acquire a 5 players under the age of 26 that will help build towards their future; Gsollman(23), Wheeler(26), Smith(21), Conforto(23), Flores(25).

    Duda, when healthy, is a power throat in the middle of the lineup. Duda is also a perfect fit to be a DH against RHP.

  8. #68
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    Angels gm still

  9. #69
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    Nov 2010
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    4,026
    I think I pig just flew by my window.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRIUMPHATOR View Post
    I think I pig just flew by my window.
    That's weird, I just seen one too

  11. #71
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    Apr 2010
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    San Francisco, CA
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    Quote Originally Posted by JOSKOMANG4 View Post
    LAA & NYM TRADE IDEA.

    - ANGELS TRADE OF M.TROUT & 1B A.PUJOLS(W/CASH CONSIDERATIONS; ANGELS EAT 40 MILLION OF REMAINING 140 MILLION LEFT) TO METS FOR 1B/DH L.DUDA, IF W.FLORES, OF M.CONFORTO, RHP'S Z.WHEELER & R.GSOLLMEN, & 1B PROSPECT DOMINIC SMITH.
    Angels lose big time.

    Trout is pretty much untradeable because it was take so much.

    Two of those big pieces are question marks. Conforto bombed this year and Wheeler hasn't pitched in two years.

  12. #72
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    "AS A MET FAN, I'D MAKE THIS TRADE IN A HEARTBEAT!"

    Noooo, really??????

    I'm shocked.
    Last edited by One Nut Kruk; 11-17-2016 at 06:49 PM.

  13. #73
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    Jan 2006
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    4,931
    Any trade for Mike Trout by the Mets starts with Syndergaard and DeGrom. You have to be willing to trade a very good young player or 2 on your MLB roster and some of your best prospects for a player of the calibre of Mike Trout and that goes for any team. That particular trade doesn't show it at all.

  14. #74
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    Feb 2009
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    3,252
    I love the position Colorado is in. A farm system with a lot of pro-ready players that can be traded for help if the front office decides, or keep the team in tact, spend a little and see what happens during the regular season. Hopefully steal a few relievers. Ziegler and Melancon (I can hope).

    Its not farfetched to think Colorado can make some noise and the front office knows this. We were 2 games out of the wildcard a day before the trade deadline.

    Finally a competent manager that knows Coors and pitching. Rockies improved at hitting on the road, 25-50 percentile in terms of average, still near the bottom but offset by ranking 15th in the MLB in road era. 4 projected starters (Bettis,Gray,Anderson,Chatwood) combined have 7 years of starter experience at the major league level with our worst De la Rosa leaving. The staff ranked 12th in the MLB in QS. Finished deadlast in bullpen ERA and 4th in blown saves.

    I rambled but it's finally time to have hope as a Rockies fan.

  15. #75
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    Jun 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by tp13baby View Post
    I love the position Colorado is in. A farm system with a lot of pro-ready players that can be traded for help if the front office decides, or keep the team in tact, spend a little and see what happens during the regular season. Hopefully steal a few relievers. Ziegler and Melancon (I can hope).

    Its not farfetched to think Colorado can make some noise and the front office knows this. We were 2 games out of the wildcard a day before the trade deadline.

    Finally a competent manager that knows Coors and pitching. Rockies improved at hitting on the road, 25-50 percentile in terms of average, still near the bottom but offset by ranking 15th in the MLB in road era. 4 projected starters (Bettis,Gray,Anderson,Chatwood) combined have 7 years of starter experience at the major league level with our worst De la Rosa leaving. The staff ranked 12th in the MLB in QS. Finished deadlast in bullpen ERA and 4th in blown saves.

    I rambled but it's finally time to have hope as a Rockies fan.
    I honestly think the Rockies are pretty close to competing. The line up is already there and the influx of young pitching has been impressive. They have a lot of good trade chips available so if they add a couple relievers and one solid veteran arm, I see no reason they can't give LAD/SF a run.

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