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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    If Cespedes goes to the Phillies I would throw up
    My guess is that Cespedes isn't coming to Philadelphia. The Phillies aren't really in a particularly great position to be signing top tier FAs and losing draft picks. Still a lot of work to be done and pieces to figure out before that can happen. Unless Cespedes is looking for a short term, big money deal, which doesn't seem to be the case, I doubt it would happen.

    I have a feeling though that the Phillies will be tied to any big name FA because we have a buttload of money to spend and are a big market.

  2. #47
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  3. #48
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    Angels to sign Jesse Chavez to a one-year, $5.75M deal with incentives.


  4. #49
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    Valencia to the M's....so he can continue to not get to play third base

  5. #50
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    2016-2017 MLB Offseason Thread

    What would your team's offer for Chris Sale look like if you were in charge? White Sox are looking for multiple near ready top prospects and other mid level prospects. They are in a full rebuild. Guys like JBJ don't make sense for them.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    What would your team's offer for Chris Sale look like if you were in charge? White Sox are looking for multiple near ready top prospects and other mid level prospects. They are in a full rebuild. Guys like JBJ don't make sense for them.
    I don't see him being traded unless the ask comes down substantially. I recall the Dodgers checking on him last year and the ask was basically Urias and our other top 3 prospects for him. Pitching market will be about the same as last year so I doubt the White Sox will ask for much less.

  7. #52
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    2016-2017 MLB Offseason Thread

    Why would they drop the price on him? Look at what the Rangers gave up for Cole Hamels, 3 top 50 prospects plus two AAA SP and Matt Harrison for Hamels when he was 31 and owed $100M and it wasn't in an insane seller's market. Sale should be worth more than what Hamels got the Phillies.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by D Blue987 View Post
    I don't see him being traded unless the ask comes down substantially. I recall the Dodgers checking on him last year and the ask was basically Urias and our other top 3 prospects for him. Pitching market will be about the same as last year so I doubt the White Sox will ask for much less.
    Pitching market is night and day.

    Last year teams could save their prospects and buy Price, Cueto, Shark, Lackey, Hill, etc

    Hellickson just accepted his QO, so there's like, Jason Hammel, Hill, and... nothing exciting.

  9. #54
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    2016-2017 MLB Offseason Thread

    Yes Wow is exactly right.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    Why would they drop the price on him? Look at what the Rangers gave up for Cole Hamels, 3 top 50 prospects plus two AAA SP and Matt Harrison for Hamels when he was 31 and owed $100M and it wasn't in an insane seller's market. Sale should be worth more than what Hamels got the Phillies.
    I look at trades in terms of values vs contracts along with needs and the market.

    In a neutral market (all things are equal) a top 5ish prospect usually carries roughly a 50-75 million dollar surplus value, a top 25ish is roughly 50 million, 25-50 range or specs around 25-35 million, top 50-100 roughly 15-20ish million.

    These are rough assumptions, and it also depends on how toolsy vs how athletic the guys are as well, as well pitchers vs position players and the positions they play. Also, some teams may value some career aspects differently than others....in other words, this isn't gospel, but it's a good base line.

    Chris Sale though has an *** ton of surplus value on a team which I think has a bit of an identity crisis in figuring out the direction they want to go in. If they decide to rebuild, they have incredible pieces to rebuild with and I would vote that they should blow the team up and come back with the best system in baseball. But they also have very nice pieces that they could piece together a good team around. Sign a decent back end starter and fill in a couple of offensive holes on one or two year deals and they could surprise for a WC or a division title in the competitive AL Central while they have Quintana and Sale under good contracts. But also doing so and missing and needing to unload those guys at diminish values would also make their rebuild further behind where it could be. It's something they need to identify in their front office.

    If they choose that blowing the team up, or deciding to just trade Sale for example could bring back some value. And the best time to trade Sale would be this off-season when he would easily be the best pitcher available all winter. There aren't great starers available in free agency now that Strasburg was extended. And we saw the Red Sox pay over $300 milllion with opt outs for a guy of Sales talent last winter.

    So what would Sale be worth in a trade in my opinion?

    I think Sale is worth around $40 million per season to a team.

    His contract sees him set to make 12 million in 17, 12.5 in 18, and 13.5 in 19 on club options that are certain to be picked up regardless of performance at this point (maybe 19 could be dropped if he has a major injury).

    That's $38 million for a guy that is worth roughly $120 million. That's $82 million in surplus value, which is worth at least a top 5 prospect and another lower level prospect.

    Add in a tax of I would say $25 million for a depleted pitching market this off-season (that's a random estimate, since it's so hard to value) and you have $107 million in surplus value.

    That's a top 5 prospect plus, a top 25-50 and another top 50-100...plus probably some filler.

    Let's say the Red Sox wanted him:
    That's Moncada plus Devers plus Kopech and maybe a filler reliever or something

    I don't know that a lot of teams could top that package because of Moncada alone. If the Red Sox would refuse to include Moncada then other teams would have a pretty good chance to beat it, though Benintendi would make for an interesting counter proposal.

    The Nationals could build something around Giolito and Robles if they wanted to
    The Astros could build something around Bregman if they wanted to
    The Rangers could possibly build something, though Gallo wouldn't be enough as a center piece in my opinion.
    If the Mets wanted to build something around Rosario and a couple of their current starters that could possibly happen.
    The Cubs could possibly do it if they wanted to part with Schwarber, but I doubt they have interest in that. But they would most certainly have to part from their big league roster to do it.
    If the Cards wanted to trade Reyes they could start a trade there, but I don't think they have the filler the White Sox would require.

    Just my two cents.

  11. #56
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    And if the Sox wanted to really unload this off-season....just some thoughts.

    Let's say the Red Sox wanted to part with Moncada plus Devers plus Kopech for Sale and the White Sox agreed to that.
    Then the Sox could also offer up Quintana who has probably $125 million in surplus value in this same market. In other words, they could fetch the same package for him as they could for Sale because of the additional year of control and people probably don't realize that he is as good as Madison Bumgarner.

    Let's say the Red Sox gave up the Moncada package (so a second basemen) with a future third basemen/COF and the Nationals gave up a package around Robles and some pitching

    the White Sox could still sell Eaton (borderline top 10 MVP candidate on a team friendly contract) and Frazier (should get a top 50-100 prospect, maybe better considering the weakness that is third base right now in the MLB). And then Abreu should net some decent prospects.

    Keep Rodon because his value isn't high enough for his potential and maybe see if anyone wants Lawrie or let him play third base and hopefully he rebuilds some value.

    I realize this is easily a last place team they would have. But they would also have the best farm system in baseball and possibly a great team in 2019-2020.

    Just depends on the calculations the White Sox come up with (on rebuild vs assemble).

    And I almost forgot about David Robertson who I know the Cardinals would love to have on the secondary closer market behind Chapman, Melancon, and Jansen. He has some surplus value too.

    The White Sox have great pieces if they decide to rebuild and could easily have the best farm system in baseball.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    Why would they drop the price on him? Look at what the Rangers gave up for Cole Hamels, 3 top 50 prospects plus two AAA SP and Matt Harrison for Hamels when he was 31 and owed $100M and it wasn't in an insane seller's market. Sale should be worth more than what Hamels got the Phillies.
    I think you misunderstood. I didn't say they should lower the price for Sale but I don't see a team willing to meet the price to get him. That being said a Sox reporter saying Dodgers and SOX are discussing a deal for Sale and Frazier combo. We will see.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by D Blue987 View Post
    I think you misunderstood. I didn't say they should lower the price for Sale but I don't see a team willing to meet the price to get him. That being said a Sox reporter saying Dodgers and SOX are discussing a deal for Sale and Frazier combo. We will see.
    I mean....that's going to cost Urias, De Leon, and Verdugo, and probably some others like Anderson

    The price would be insane to land both in one trade. Sox are better off parting each of these guys separately.

  14. #59
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    Yea white Sox could have a very quick rebuild unlike teams like Houston/Phillies because of the great pieces they can move immediately.

    You can realistically get 8-10 top 100 prospects trading some of these guys
    Then pick up a couple of free agents, relievers on short contracts that can be dealt for more pieces at the deadline

    But then on the other hand, its a tough to give up when you have arguably 2 top 10 starters in the league and other solid pieces around them

    Their main problem has been a complete inability to develop any bats over the last 10+ years.. I mean who was the last even decent bat to come up from the White Sox system over the last I dunno how many years. I honestly can't remember

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by WOwolfOL View Post
    Pitching market is night and day.

    Last year teams could save their prospects and buy Price, Cueto, Shark, Lackey, Hill, etc

    Hellickson just accepted his QO, so there's like, Jason Hammel, Hill, and... nothing exciting.
    i think he might have meant at the deadline last year, not last offseason
    The Most Epic Thread EVER
    Quote Originally Posted by dbroncos78087 View Post
    Yea what is he thinking not wanting to drive next to or near drunk people. I have never met a more sheltered scaredy cat. As a hobby i find 10-15 homeless guys and give them lots of alcohol and play bumper cars all day but im normal.

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