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Thread: 2017 and Beyond

  1. #3436
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    Keeping in mind we are going to need money to either resign or replace Liriano and Estrada after this year and then Donaldson and Happ after next year, there is no rush to lock up Pillar. He doesn't hit FA until 2021. I think you stay in arbitration to keep the number on him as low as possible until guys like Bautista and Martin come off the books. They just gave Sanchez the minimum after he almost won a Cy Young, I don't think they will be in a rush to give Pillar one cent more than they have to...

  2. #3437
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    Very fair point to make. If what you see is what you think you will get then i think year to year makes sense. But if you think Pillar can slightly improve his bat then it might be worth exploring.

  3. #3438
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    Pillar isn't going to make a significant amount of money whether it's in arb or a contract extension. And as much as I'd like to see the Jays extend Donaldson, I can't see it happening. Any kind of Donaldson deal is probably going to be close, if not over 200M, and I don't see the Jays giving that to him. So I don't think that's a reason not to expect a Pillar extension.

    Also this management group loves to sign guys through arb and buying out FA years, as they did in Cleveland, so if anything I'd say the opposite.

  4. #3439
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    I am still not convinced Donaldson is going to get a deal close to 200M.

    By the time he is a free agent he will be 33 and by the time he hits opening day he will be 33 and 4 month. If he is going to get 30M per year then he is going to need to get at least 7 years or 33M for 6 years and at 33 i dont see that. A 32 year old Justin Turner only got 65M over 4 years. Donaldson is a MUCH better player than Turner but 2 years from now i wouldnt be surprised to see if Donaldson' numbers dropped a bit.

    There arent really any good comparables for Donaldson this past off-season (Edwin, Turner, Cesepdes) or next (Lucroy, Martinez, and Gonzalez) but i just have a hard time seeing anyone pay 6 plus years or 30M plus per for a 33 year old 3B. No one wanted to give 4 years for a 34 year old Edwin. I think the most Donaldson gets 5 years. Currently there are only 45 contracts given to batters with 6 years or more; the oldest players to sign one of those deals were Miggy starting in his age 32 season, Pujols and Cano were next at 31. Pujols was in a different category when he signed... Cano signed a 10 year deal but it was only for 24M per but again when he was 31.

    Donaldson will have to ellipse back to back 7 WAR seasons to try to get himself to the same status of Miggy and Cano. And even if he can do that who has the money for that? Out of the big money teams i think only the Yankees do and the question is do they want to spend it on a 33 Donaldson or a 26 year old Machado and/or Harper. Maybe the Dodgers but they would still have Turner under contract. Red Sox have Devers coming up and Panda at another year. Texas has Beltre. Tigers? Angels? Are they spending more money?

    I know it just takes 1 team but i am still finding it hard to land on that 1 team. I am thinking at best Donaldson get 150M over 5 with maybe an option.
    Last edited by phillipmike; 03-17-2017 at 03:08 PM.

  5. #3440
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    Turner took a discount to stay with LAD, doesn't have an MVP award, and isn't anywhere near as good as Donaldson. You can argue you don't think he'll get 200, but he's going to get a hell of a lot more than 150.

    Edwin's also nowhere near as good as JD, and he adds no defensive value. JD isn't just about his elite bat, but the fact he can also play above average D.

    I figure heading into his FA year JD is gonna be around 6.6 WAR (0.5 WAR decline per year). Meaning that I'd expect teams to value him for close to 29 WAR per 6 years even factoring in decline. If you want to drop it down to 24 because you think he'll face a harsher decline, that's fair too. At 8M a year in $/WAR that means he'd be worth 192M over 6 years if you expect him to produce 24 WAR during his FA years. I'm just having a hard time seeing JD worth $150M. Even at 21 WAR over 6 years (6/5/4/3/2/1 WAR estimate) you'd be looking at 168M.

    For what it's worth I did the same thing for EE and came to 84.6M/4 years before he signed his deal in FA. I know bats haven't been paid as well recently, but I still think if JD is productive he'll be closer to 180/190M (or higher) than 150M.
    Last edited by Twitchy; 03-17-2017 at 03:15 PM.

  6. #3441
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    Not really speaking about play when comparing Edwin just age. The market really tanked for sluggers in their 30s. I think only Morales and Edwin got 3 year deals for aged 33 year old free agents or older. I dont doubt Donaldson will get 30M per if he continues to dominate the next 2 seasons... i just doubt he gets more than 5 years guaranteed and it is only based on his age of 33. Even if he gets 6 years at 30M it is 180M. Not going to be near 200M in my opinion.

    Then the whole other argument of who has the money to pay that. If the Yankees go for Machado then i dont know who will pay that especially since teams like the Red Sox and Tigers are trying to stay under the LT.

  7. #3442
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    Yeah, the market tanked for one dimensional sluggers who don't add any skills beyond the bat. Note that Cespedes got essentially what he was predicted to get, just with a fewer year and higher AAV. Guys who could do more than just hit are being valued quite high. I know that Cespedes is younger than JD will be 2 years later, but the bats who got paid all have defensive value, and aren't just one dimensional sluggers. The market tanked for 33+ bats who were just that - bats. Guys who add defensive value are a whole other story.

    Anyway, 180M is pretty close to 200M lol. Certainly closer to that than 150. Which is my point - I think that 150 is far too low, and that he'll likely get 180-200M, if not more.

  8. #3443
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    Josh is one of the top 5 players in the game and he plays a premium position I cant see anyway he gets less per year than Cespedes.

    he'll be 33 when he hits free agency so $27.5 million a year for 6 years sounds about right so id guess $165M

  9. #3444
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    But he's a free agent in the crazy year. Guys are going to overbid and spend like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see another market reset type of year where we hit the $40m per season. Josh at 6/200 wouldn't surprise me one bit.

  10. #3445
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    We will see. If teams are willing to go over the luxury tax then perhaps. But if teams want to stay under it like they have this season then there may not be room for him. No Yankees, Tigers, Dodgers or Red Sox with available funds.

    Im just skeptical. Ill wait one more offseason to see what happens.

  11. #3446
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    You can still buy out arbitration years from Pillar if you wait 2 years, so I still say there is no reason to try and rush into signing him now with all of the holes we are going to need to fill over the next 24 months. I say let him go to arb at least once, and then if he is still looking like a solid long term investment in CF you lock him up. He isn't going to hit FA until he is 32 years old, so you essentially have him for his prime as a CFer. If he doesn't want to sign a long term team friendly deal 2 years from now and you lose him in 2021 so be it.

  12. #3447
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    Do you think the Jays will put in money for Shohei Otani when the time comes?

    superb pitcher and good hitter.

    word is that on his off days - he can DH

    lol



  13. #3448
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    I sure hope so but very unlikely they win the bidding. Wonder how it works with the cap. Probably the bonus doesn't count but his salary would.

  14. #3449
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    Pillars skill set doesn't pay huge in Arby so no need to lock him up imo. If he repeated 2015, that might be different. NIH osuna on the other hand.. saves pay out in Arby.

  15. #3450
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    Quote Originally Posted by koreancabbage View Post
    Do you think the Jays will put in money for Shohei Otani when the time comes?

    superb pitcher and good hitter.

    word is that on his off days - he can DH

    lol
    I read something a few months back that said he would be a legit contender for both Cy Young and MVP. If this is remotely close to true everyone should be bidding

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