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Thread: 2017 and Beyond

  1. #1
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    2017 and Beyond

    Edit (Twitchy): Here are the QO rules:

    If a team gets revenue sharing and signs a player who received the qualifying offer, they would lose their third-highest draft pick.

    Teams that pay into the revenue-sharing pool will lose their second- and fifth-highest picks.

    Those rich teams would also lose $1 million from their international signing cap.

    The medium-market teams — the ones who don’t receive or pay revenue-sharing money — would give up their second-highest pick and $500,000 in international money.

    A team that loses a player who declines the qualifying offer before signing for $50 million or more will get a draft choice between the first and second round.

    If that player signs for less than $50 million, the pick will be after round B of the competitive-balance round, which is after the second round.

    Reminder that the Cardinals occasionally get extra picks in the competitive balance round, which is still just the stupidest thing.

    If a team is over the luxury-tax threshold, they’ll still get a pick for losing a top free agent, but it will be after the fourth round.


    Because I feel that this often gets discussed in many threads maybe its time to talk about it here.

    Using cots baseball contracts and adding in all the raises and the one real arbitration case raise(stroman). I came out to a payroll of 105M for 14 players.

    Starting Pitcher
    Stroman
    Sanchez
    Happ
    Estrada
    Hutchison

    Relief
    Osuna
    Grilli
    Biagini

    C - Martin
    1B - Empty
    2B - Travis
    SS - Tulo
    3B - Donaldson
    LF - Empty
    CF - Pillar
    RF - Empty
    DH - Smoak
    Bench - Barney

    Your bench can probably be filled with cheap young players like a Pompey. So lets say you give your bench roughly 3M to fill 3 bench spots. You still need to fill out your pen with either a ton of middle relief if you keep Osuna there or you pretty much need to overhaul your whole pen. Either way I think you would likely need to spend 10-12M (preferable on a couple high end middle relief guys that can compete and then add guys from within). At this point, to fill out your pen with or without Osuna you are looking at roughly 12M. So now with your pen filled you have committed roughly 120M to 22 players. I know many of you will be concerned about Hutchison but I'm assuming that Osuna can fill in the spot ala Sanchez in 2015 and then go into the pen in the second half. This scenario also doesn't factor in trades that can throw this all into disarray.

    I think everything I said above is more or less whats likely to happen in some way, shape or form. Knowing that you need a LF, RF, 1B/DH.

    Options
    1. Try and get Bautista/EE to come in at around 45M~ and stick Pompey in LF. THis would bump the payroll to 165m~

    2. Sign just EE or Bautista and go with Pompey/Zeke in the OF, EE at DH and Smoak at 1B or Pompey/Bautista in OF, Smoak at 1B and rotating DH. Assuming roughly 22-25M~ for Bautista then payroll will be 145m~ roughly this years payroll.

    3. Forget EE/Bautista. Sign Saunders (12-15M?) to play LF, Pompey RF, Smoak 1B, rotating DH. Spend the extra 5-10M on a good depth starter/bullpen.

    4. I'm sure there are more but this would go on forever.

    EIther way I think that this is a good starting point assuming everything but LF, RF, DH is covered for roughly 120M. What do you do going into next year and beyond.
    Last edited by Twitchy; 12-12-2016 at 01:39 PM.

  2. #2
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    Pompey is not a bench bat, he's likely the starting RF. If you're spending $$ on relief pitching you're gonna need more than 10-12M, but the problem is next year's FA class in general sucks. So you're probably relying on trades, or buying low on Cecil in the hopes he rebounds.

    I think Osuna to the rotation makes the most sense, he can handle 25 starts @ 5 innings a game. Previous career high is around 86-87 innings. And you can skip starts and maybe spot start a guy like Hutch as you mentioned.

    Smoak shouldn't be more than a backup. Ideally you need to find a real 1B/DH/LF, get a new backup C, get an entirely new bullpen (probably only Biagini stays there if Osuna is in the rotation). But there is a good core in place. It's just a matter of filling in the holes. I hope they can sign 2/3 of JB/EE/Saunders.

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    I think Grilli, if he chooses to play, is very affordable at 3M. I would love to sign 2/3 of Saunders/EE/Bautista but if you are saying that 12M is not enough and you need ~15M then you are probably looking at a ~170M payroll. Which I don't know you can realistically expect.

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    Personally i subscribe to the AA's line of thought of building a minor system to building a sustainable MLB team (i.e. the Cardinals).

    You never lock up or spend money on older players as you need the different waves coming in. AA said you need a wave of MLB ready prospects (AAA), then almost ready prospects (AA) and then raw prospects (A ball or lower). If you trade from one or have some graduate different levels then you need replenish to continue the never ending wave of talent if you want to have a sustainable winner.

    I love Bautista and EE but i dont necessarily think it is all doom and gloom if they dont return. If those guys gave you the Ortiz discount of 1 to 3 year deals then it would make sense but if they want 4 or more which would tie up potentially 30-40% of our payroll then it would be better to let them walk.

    Look at our core/star players in 2017;

    35+: Bautista
    30+: Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Happ, Estrada, EE
    25+: Pillar, Stroman, Travis, Sanchez (maybe Hutch)
    20+: Osuna, Pompey
    AAA:
    AA: Tellez, Greene
    A: Urena, Alford, Reid-Foley, Pentecost, Harris

    Bautista and EE's age mean nothing if they stay productive and healthy throughout their next contracts. But that is the thing, you dont know what is gonna happen with them and when do aging players who are declining on defence at non-premium positions stay healthy. Then take those players and look at the ones who got long term contracts - outside of Nelson Cruz and Matt Holliday and so far Victor Martinez i cannot think of others that worked out (and they are not even making that much per year considering what Bautista and EE are rumored to want). I can think of more long term contracts that didnt work. But age then becomes a huge factor because of what they command and limit what you can do long term. Shortly guys like EE, Tulo, and Martin will be in the 35+ category AND making big dollars probably close to 80-90M if we resigned Bautista and EE. Flexibility is key and signing guys like Bautista and EE long term could really hurt this team long term because of their age. Many would argue that Rogers are billionaires and could spend move to re-sign these guys and cover up the mistakes down the road. But the Yankees who do that show that money cant solve everything. I would argue that contracts like Tulo and Martin would be just as bad if not worse than Bautista and EE's upcoming contracts as they are not as good hitters but at least Tulo and Martin play premium positions and as it stand they are probably top 5 in the league at their positions as two-way players and they are slightly young though i would still probably take EE or Bautista at 25M over Martin at 22M but they may or may not be an option.

    So if you want to build a sustainable winner you need to replenish those waves/age groups which can help you short term and long term. This team would look better on the field in 2017 with Bautista, EE and Saunders in the lineup. But it may not be the case in 2018 and beyond if they decline especially with huge deals. It could be window killers (i.e. the Phillies, Tigers, Yankees, Angels etc. and it would be the Red Sox too if they didnt draft so well and got LA to take on their bad contracts - so maybe add the Dodgers to the list) and franchise killers if you dont have money to re-sign your other core players in Donaldson and Co. Under normal circumstances i would say your window is gone if Bautista and EE leave but Donaldson is the reason for hope among the other players but JD leads the charge.

    It all comes down to smart investments and spending top market value on what would likely be a declining asset(s) isnt smart business.

    You have to think long term.

    Cardinals;

    That kind of long-range financial planning can't happen without smooth coordination between Mozeliak and DeWitt, each of whom looks at the Cardinals not just today, but also through a three- to five-year window. That includes players in the system, major leaguers whose contracts are set to expire down the road and even potential acquisitions from other teams.

    "The first question is, is it a replaceable asset?" Mozeliak said of the process of determing whether to invest in a long-term contract. "And, if the answer is yes, then you have to define how. If the answer is no, then that obviously puts a priority on finding a way to get it done."
    "Bill and I are always looking three-to-five years out anyway, so we knew when Waino was coming up, and we were both prepared to know, directionally, where this was going," Mozeliak said.

    DeWitt echoed Mozeliak's characterization of their relationship.

    "We do work closely together," DeWitt said. "Talk virtually every day, meet quite often. Always trying to look ahead, and not just at what we're doing tonight with the understanding that we want to compete three years down the road, five years down the road, who do we have coming. What do we need to do to make sure that, three to five years down the road, we don't have a bunch of 38-year-old players finishing their career, but not much coming behind them."
    There are a lot of ifs an buts (having a 300M payroll) but let's work off of what is likely to happen and what is reality which is likely a $150M payroll.

    This off-season the Jays need to focus on two things;

    1. Smart spending to replenish your major league waves (Players in the 20-30 wave) with reasonable contract that give you flexibility
    2. Replenish your minor league system

    These two things get accomplished by potentially letting Bautista, EE and Saunders go with potential QOs to gain 3 compensation picks. I didnt add Dickey because we all know he can be had on a short term deal which is always a good thing for players 33 and over eventhough i am not a Dickey but a short term investment on him gives you flexibility. If our big 3 free agents were willing to sign short term deals then i would forego the idea off adding to your other waves for 1-2 because you are in a win now mode. Plus it would be very easy to retool this team on the flying 1-2 years then it would be if you had 30-40% of your payroll used up on our big three.

    Plus the Jays forte is taking bad hitters and making them good or great (Bautista, and EE) or good ones and making the great (Donaldson, Travis, Saunders etc.) all because of your park. Tying up a lot of money in 1B and DH would hurt our ability to take on reclamation projects as they are the easiest for us to fill. Tellez is on the way and Smoak isnt a bad pan B or C at 4M. IF EE isnt an option then i dont think it is a bad idea to have flexibility at 1B and DH to give guys like Donaldson, Tulo and potentially Martin the night off from playing the field.

    Long story short, i think the best thing for the team with a 150M payroll is to look for smart investments and i dont think Bautista, EE and Saunders (either they are older, have injury history and/or will command top dollar) would be smart investments.

    Cardinals only really signed Holiday longterm. They let Pujols walk which is a very smart decision.

    I think the Jays are in good long term position if they play their cards right this off-season.

    My 2017 Jays;

    Starting Pitcher
    Stroman
    Sanchez
    Happ
    Estrada
    Hutchison - Maybe a trade or FA to upgrade - Dickey on a short term deal wouldnt be terrible

    Relief
    Osuna
    Grilli
    Biagini
    Trades/minor signings

    C - Martin
    1B - Flexibility - FA/trade; Steve Pearce, Justin Turner, David Freese, Napoli, Santana
    2B - Travis
    SS - Tulo
    3B - Donaldson
    LF - Pompey
    CF - Pillar
    RF - Reddick (15-16M)
    DH - Flexibility - FA/trade; Steve Pearce, Justin Turner, David Freese, Napoli, Santana
    Bench - Barney - INF
    Bench - Smoak - 1B/DH
    Bench - Ruiz, Navarro, Suzuki, Soto - C
    Bench - Lake, Zeke - OF - maybe someone better in case Pompey flounders; Rajai

    I would roll with what we have unless something great comes to the table. Dickey is a plan B if you dont like the other options. Rotation has been good by Dickey is an FA, Estrada is one the year after and then Happ. So you need to replenish those waves. I think we will be fine with Stroman and Sanchez. Unless you are getting a TORP i think you need to see what you have with Hutch and/or potentially Osuna. Otherwise i look for some cheaper short term deals. Maybe even Rich Hill, i am a supporter now.

    Pen; short term deals, waiver pick ups, trades and guys from the minors. I like Schultz and potentially Cecil and Storen on 1 year deals. They owe us!

    Getting a guy like Reddick would be huge. Lefty bat and bringing him to the Rogers Centre like Bautista, EE, and JD could be huge. Reddick and JD love each other and Reddick isnt looking for a big deal. Pompey needs MLB time and he will be ready. Guy is athletic and a lot wouldnt be expected of him plus he is learning from a great core and is thrown into the mix for the playoffs like how the Cardinals build their team. We wouldnt need to acquire players with playoff experience like we did with JD and Martin, we would grow our own. That is key, have strong core players, short term flexible deals to fill the lineup which gives you flexibility and opportunity for your prospects to develop and grow with the team.

    Again love bringing underrated bats to the Rogers Centre. I would love 2 of Santana, Turner or Pearce. Though i think the Indians will pick up his 12M option i think Santana is an EE or Bautista in the making. He is having a great year so he would be a good addition and Shapiro/Atkins could bring their Cleveland guy over. Likely would only be a DH as his defense at 1B sucks like EE but that bat could be big for a lot less. Pearce and Turner are great too because they can play other positions. Turner might be the better player but Pearce has had success in the AL East with 2 different teams.

    Backup catcher; i always like vets on short term deals. So anyone of those will be fine.
    Last edited by phillipmike; 07-21-2016 at 11:07 AM.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysFan87 View Post
    I think Grilli, if he chooses to play, is very affordable at 3M. I would love to sign 2/3 of Saunders/EE/Bautista but if you are saying that 12M is not enough and you need ~15M then you are probably looking at a ~170M payroll. Which I don't know you can realistically expect.
    I think you can get 2/3 of JB/EE/Saunders for under 40M. Maybe that means EE at 18-20 and Saunders at 15-18, but you an do that and keep the payroll around 150M.

    One thing I might explore this offseason is trading Happ. He's having a great year, he's on a pretty good contract, but if you move him you could potentially use that as a way to acquire a position player. And that's kind of why I'd want to get Osuna in the rotation, because then for 2018 you have Stro/Sanchez/Osuna.

  6. #6
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    Given age, position and direction of the franchise, I think the priority has to be bringing back Saunders and EE. I'm fine with a sub par bat in RF in Pompey as long as he gives me speed and defense.

    I'm expecting one of the 3 back, but really hoping they can bring bat 2 of those guys. The core in place is strong enough to continue competing if we can get a couple of them resigned.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twitchy View Post
    I think you can get 2/3 of JB/EE/Saunders for under 40M. Maybe that means EE at 18-20 and Saunders at 15-18, but you an do that and keep the payroll around 150M.

    One thing I might explore this offseason is trading Happ. He's having a great year, he's on a pretty good contract, but if you move him you could potentially use that as a way to acquire a position player. And that's kind of why I'd want to get Osuna in the rotation, because then for 2018 you have Stro/Sanchez/Osuna.
    If you spend 40M on 2/3 of Bautista/EE/Saunders your payroll will be conservatively 160M. Like I said assuming raises and arbitration and 18M to fill out 4-5 spots in the pen and 3 bench spots you are up to ~122M without a LF/RF/1B.

    One thing I would also explore (not saying I would do it) is to see if you can get a starter (maybe even controllable for 2-3 years). As much as it pains me to say this, but if you can get some sort of controllable, innings eater pitcher (like dickey) for Saunders it solves a lot of problems this year and going forward. It allows you to actually move Sanchez to the pen without severally damaging the rotation. Gives you Osuna, Sanchez and Grilli at the backend going into the playoffs.

    I preface by saying that I 100% am in favour of Osuna going to the rotation next year and think that he should have been stretched out this year. But if you can get a nice SP for Saunders this year then you can still leave Osuna in the pen next year knowing you have 6 SP (Hutchison is the 6th) in your rotation and now you might be able to spend some of that money you would have used in the pen towards resigning Bautista/EE and have Pompey play LF.

    I think that might be a bit far fetched just thinking what could happen but if you can get a SP for Saunders (even a good swing man who doesn't "need" to start) then I think you might be able to solve a few of your problems. Even though I hate the idea of Osuna in the pen.
    Last edited by JaysFan87; 07-21-2016 at 06:30 PM.

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    I dont think there is a chance in hell EE signs for less than 20 per at this point. The guy might finish with 40 HRs, 140 RBIs and no matter what u think of these numbers, they're easy to sell for an agent. I think Boston will offer him 23 mills if not more

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    This would be much easier if we knew the payroll of course. Good thread idea though.

    Of ee/bats/Saunders Saunders is the one I would most like to see refuse the qo and get the pick for. He can't run or play defense so is a dh In my opinion, maybe even a very good one if that keeps him healthy. That being said, I cash him in. If we could get ee at 5/100 and bats at 3/60, I sign on for that

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    I do agree about Saunders.. His defense will get worse and worse I feel. The wheels seem to be completely gone so hes all bat. And while his bat has been great this year, you can't bank on that based off a few months sample size

  11. #11
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    I don't think anybody is giving EE more than 20 and that would be a record for a DH. Saunders is definitely someone who if signed more than 2 years will be a DH by the third year, if not sooner. It's tricky signing any of JB/EE/Saunders because they all come with such risk. JB/EE could face age related declines immediately, and Saunders should/could regress back to a 120 wRC+ guy who can't hit LHP.

  12. #12
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    Again its all about payroll that allows or limits high risk/high reward signings.

    With voids at DH/1B/LF, its essential to keep Jose EE leaving Smoak/Cola as backup rotational insurance. Boston/NY had Ortiz, Aroids, Tex consistently thru DH/1B in last few years and always posed a threat and thorn over each season.

    Getting 3 supplement draft picks is neat haul for Jose EE Saunders but this vacuum of power shortage is not recoverable especially in AL East and their ballparks. I'd gladly net one with Saunders with focus on resigning Jose EE.

    Pipe dream to go for key 2018 FA bats, when its lucky to even keep JD around. Apparently, we have a solid in-field depth of Tulo/JD/Travis/Barney/Goins and staple of arms Estrada/Sanchez/Stroman/Osuna and new wave Greene/SRF knocking door soon etc...

    Its now or never to swing for fences. Just GO BIG or GO HOME IMO

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    Give Tellez a call at the starting DH spot.

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    EE is probably getting around $18 mil roughly since he can still play some 1st base.

    JB will be lucky to get a team to pony up $15 mil right now... though if he comes back with a push he could get there... age is also an issue and he isnt getting 5 years for sure unless the last two years are something like $10 mil per.

    I would still re-sign EE for DH and throw Smoak as a stop gap 1st basemen until Tellez can fill in in 2018.

    I would re-sign Saunders and put Pompey in RF.

    I would also sign Chapman to be the closer and move Osuna to the rotation.


    So:

    EE around $18 mil. Saunders around $15 mil (or if JB stays for around $15-$18 mil I would re-sign him over Saunders). Chapman around $12 mil. Pompey is minimum. Back up catcher around $2 mil. Throw another $5 mil or so at relievers.

    So you add about $50 mil so Jays around $150-$155 mil.

    Team has about 2-3 more years with the current crew before the new corp from the minors could potentially come in:

    Potential 2020:

    C- Pentecost
    1B- Tellez
    2B- Travis/Biggio
    SS- Urena
    DH- Tulo
    3B- Donaldson
    LF- Pompey
    CF- Pillar
    RF- Alford

    In the wings: Bichette, Vlad Jr (2021ish).

    P- Sanchez
    P- Osuna
    P- Reid-Foley
    P- Harris
    P- Greene/Rios/Perdomo/Zeuch


    If the Jays just re-sign some of these guys there will likely be no need to make any major moves for 2-3 years so you wouldnt need to mess too much with the core of your potential prospects. Of course any major injury could require the Jays to trade a prospect but the jays

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanyo View Post
    EE is probably getting around $18 mil roughly since he can still play some 1st base.

    JB will be lucky to get a team to pony up $15 mil right now... though if he comes back with a push he could get there... age is also an issue and he isnt getting 5 years for sure unless the last two years are something like $10 mil per.

    I would still re-sign EE for DH and throw Smoak as a stop gap 1st basemen until Tellez can fill in in 2018.

    I would re-sign Saunders and put Pompey in RF.

    I would also sign Chapman to be the closer and move Osuna to the rotation.


    So:

    EE around $18 mil. Saunders around $15 mil (or if JB stays for around $15-$18 mil I would re-sign him over Saunders). Chapman around $12 mil. Pompey is minimum. Back up catcher around $2 mil. Throw another $5 mil or so at relievers.

    So you add about $50 mil so Jays around $150-$155 mil.

    Team has about 2-3 more years with the current crew before the new corp from the minors could potentially come in:

    Potential 2020:

    C- Pentecost
    1B- Tellez
    2B- Travis/Biggio
    SS- Urena
    DH- Tulo
    3B- Donaldson
    LF- Pompey
    CF- Pillar
    RF- Alford

    In the wings: Bichette, Vlad Jr (2021ish).

    P- Sanchez
    P- Osuna
    P- Reid-Foley
    P- Harris
    P- Greene/Rios/Perdomo/Zeuch


    If the Jays just re-sign some of these guys there will likely be no need to make any major moves for 2-3 years so you wouldnt need to mess too much with the core of your potential prospects. Of course any major injury could require the Jays to trade a prospect but the jays
    No Vlad Jr?

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