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  1. #646
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    Quote Originally Posted by whooligun View Post
    who wins the ne/pit game though?

    They both have lots of side stories.

    The whole kraft/brady/belichick story.
    Ryan shazier’s major injury.
    The death of dan rooney.
    The early steelers’ disfunction with brown & bryant.
    James harrison.

    I think pittsburgh, but it’s still early. Lots of time for new drama to unfold!
    ne

  2. #647
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    I've been dumb to think that ratings matter. The NFL was built for the purpose of gambling. Look it up. Anyway..I found this nugget from last week.

    See a soft line, hammer it. That's how professional bettors make their living.

    With NFL Wild Card Weekend upon us, SportsLine tapped into its Vegas and offshore sources to find out where pro bettors -- known as sharps or wiseguys -- are putting their money. We can tell you the wiseguys hammered the Chiefs laying 7.5 points against the Titans. Tennessee has been overrated all year, winning nine games despite getting outscored by 22 points.

    In addition to K.C. -7.5, professional bettors hit the three other home favorites at Caesar's Palace Race & Sports Book. Caesars took "good-sized" wiseguy bets on the Jaguars -7.5, the Saints -6, and the Rams -5.5 and -6.

    Currently at most books, the Chiefs and Jags are laying 9 points apiece, New Orleans and LA giving 6.5 each.

    It's the same story offshore at The Greek Sportsbook, where professional and public bettors alike piled on all four home favorites.

    "We'll have high liabilities on all four favorites in terms of teasers come game day," said Scott Kaminsky, general manager at The Greek Sportsbook.

    Favorites easily covered all four games on Wild Card weekend last year. But in the three previous years, underdogs went 7-3-2 against the spread.

    If the AFC spreads get to 10 and the NFC spreads hit 7, we could see substantial sharp money on the 'dogs at that point.

    Scott Cooley, odds consultant for BookMaker.eu, told SportsLine that the Falcons-Rams game drew the most intriguing early action.

    "Falcons-Rams was a bit wacky out of the gate," he said. "We did open -6 to somewhat test the waters. When the sharps jumped on Atlanta, we pulled it and dropped to -4.5. We got some more sharp action and went to -4. But after that it's been nothing but smart money on L.A.

    "Basically, they positioned to get as low as they could get and then came back harder on the other side."

    Wiseguys also are on the Jags, Chiefs and Saints at BookMaker.eu.

    "Jacksonville has been a pretty consistent smart play all year, and they aren't backing off the Jags now," Cooley said of Doug Marrone's team, which is 9-7 ATS.

    "The Chiefs could reach double digits if wagers continue to pile up on that side," Cooley added. "No one believes in the Titans, and the sharps want nothing to do with them."

    The book doesn't want to move to 7 in Panthers-Saints, "but that's where we're headed at the moment," Cooley said.

    Sharps who grabbed Saints -6 could then bet Panthers +7 and get a free roll, hoping New Orleans wins by 6 or 7.

  3. #648
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  4. #649
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  5. #650
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  6. #651
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    here is my betting rule...never bet against Bill and Tom. I don't care what the odds say more often than not they are going to win.
    2017 DRAFT GAME CHAMPION SUPREME!

  7. #652
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    Quote Originally Posted by garnotm View Post
    here is my betting rule...never bet against Bill and Tom. I don't care what the odds say more often than not they are going to win.
    I won good money betting against bill and tom. Spread baby. I don't do ML often for football.

  8. #653
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    Who’s betting on this one? I am inclined to think that everybody would bet heavy on the Eagles thus New England wins.

    I came to that conclusion based on how easily they beat the Vikings and their great defense.
    ^^ Our 27th Savior ^^

    click here to join the Lions Forum
    SE7EN time OTT Winner#1,#6,#10,#12, #14, #24 & #27
    Quote Originally Posted by GuySir View Post
    LFFS is the master at going from goofball to boss

  9. #654
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    never bet against Brady / Belicheck

    it will not work 95% of the time

  10. #655
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    I'm talking Moneyline purposes, you can bet the spread and still win while the Pats also win lol

  11. #656
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    As of today (although I don't know how accurate this data is):

    63% are betting Philly +5

    65% are betting over 48

    So...27-20 New England?

  12. #657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionsfanfromsac View Post
    Who’s betting on this one? I am inclined to think that everybody would bet heavy on the Eagles thus New England wins.

    I came to that conclusion based on how easily they beat the Vikings and their great defense.
    Don't be the ML unless you it's a small amount. I'm going Eagles +5 for sure. I haven't decided on some of the other props or the over/under. I'm leaning towards the over. I believe the total is 48 right now. I will also be betting Nick Foles OVER his yardage total if is reasonable. Maybe OVER for the tom brady number of completions, but it'll probably be set at about 24 which is pretty high.

    EDIT: I really like doing superbowl props. I made quite a bit last year...I need to find my old betslips and I can post em. Last year was crazy because like every over hit and hit very quickly.
    Last edited by lizardking13; 01-24-2018 at 02:46 PM.

  13. #658
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    Quote Originally Posted by whooligun View Post
    As of today (although I don't know how accurate this data is):

    63% are betting Philly +5

    65% are betting over 48

    So...27-20 New England?
    Meh. Fade the public is slightly overrated. Generally speaking, fading the public will net you money but if it was that easy then you could just fade every week and win. That method doesn't work.

  14. #659
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    Quote Originally Posted by lizardking13 View Post
    Meh. Fade the public is slightly overrated. Generally speaking, fading the public will net you money but if it was that easy then you could just fade every week and win. That method doesn't work.
    I'm not betting until I know where the money is. Sure the public could be on the over, but if Vegas stands to lose more if the under hits, Im betting the over.

    And it would be interesting to know how many times the public consensus hit throughout the season.

  15. #660
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    Quote Originally Posted by whooligun View Post
    I'm not betting until I know where the money is. Sure the public could be on the over, but if Vegas stands to lose more if the under hits, Im betting the over.

    And it would be interesting to know how many times the public consensus hit throughout the season.
    In the long run the public will always lose (Obviously), but any specific instance it's hard to say. I don't know what the numbers were for 2017, but I know that in 2016 the public had an absolute field day. IIRC it was the worst year in over a decade for a lot of sports books. Generally speaking, this is because the public favors favorits and overs.

    at the end of the day, dogs and favorites will cover the spread somewhere around 50%...

    Another thing to note is that the line has not moved since it was opened. If +5 was hammered hard it is likely that it will go down to +4.5 or +4.

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