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Thread: Jim Brown

  1. #31
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    Here's another one of my points.. this is just an estimate of the results for Peyton Manning if I were to translate his numbers through the 1960s/70s game.

    Code:
    Name	        Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	FUM	Sacks	YDS	TD	Rate	rANY/A	WAA
    Peyton Manning	363	48%	2100	15	34	3	24	52	0	41.27	1.73	-0.83
    Peyton Manning	363	52%	2450	15	18	7	17	61	2	66.45	3.91	0.03
    Peyton Manning	381	53%	2588	20	18	5	23	96	1	71.95	4.33	0.35
    Peyton Manning	345	53%	2320	15	28	8	32	131	3	55.49	2.68	-0.53
    Peyton Manning	393	55%	2436	16	26	7	26	123	2	60.53	3.04	-0.32
    Peyton Manning	422	57%	2912	23	17	8	26	22	0	78.96	4.36	0.49
    Peyton Manning	361	58%	2950	32	15	7	17	32	0	96.58	6.16	1.54
    Peyton Manning	310	56%	2267	17	12	7	20	37	0	81.82	4.61	0.26
    Peyton Manning	448	55%	3050	20	20	2	20	30	3	73.05	5.04	1.06
    Peyton Manning	355	56%	2495	20	20	7	25	-4	2	73.90	4.09	0.10
    Peyton Manning	377	56%	2422	17	15	1	24	17	1	74.31	4.67	0.51
    Peyton Manning	417	57%	2773	20	24	2	41	-11	0	69.49	3.92	0.21
    Peyton Manning	445	56%	2766	20	21	3	24	15	0	70.66	4.07	0.33
    Peyton Manning	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0.00
    Peyton Manning	395	58%	2780	24	16	4	42	5	0	83.10	4.68	0.66
    Peyton Manning	497	58%	3587	36	16	13	21	-26	1	91.45	5.07	1.34
    Peyton Manning	406	56%	2773	24	18	7	31	-20	0	77.62	4.17	0.32
    Peyton Manning	6278	55%	42671	336	317	90	412	559	15	73.30	4.18	5.51
    (This is an estimate of how Mannings career from 1998 - 2014 would look through the lens of 1961 - 1977 before league rules relaxed the passing game)

    For example.. a comparison w/ Tarkenton (1961 - 1977)

    Code:
    Name	        Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	FUM	Sacks	YDS	TD	Rate	rANY/A	WAA
    Fran Tarkenton	280	56%	1757	18	17	8	28	308	5	71.09	3.76	-0.16
    Fran Tarkenton	329	50%	2284	22	25	5	34	361	2	62.92	4.32	0.25
    Fran Tarkenton	297	57%	2034	15	15	7	24	162	1	74.10	4.00	-0.08
    Fran Tarkenton	306	56%	2205	22	11	6	24	330	2	87.67	5.65	1.03
    Fran Tarkenton	329	52%	2296	19	11	5	39	356	1	79.79	4.95	0.73
    Fran Tarkenton	358	54%	2254	17	16	8	23	376	4	70.21	4.43	0.44
    Fran Tarkenton	377	54%	2717	29	19	4	28	306	2	81.85	5.49	1.26
    Fran Tarkenton	337	54%	2248	21	12	2	24	301	3	80.82	5.36	1.01
    Fran Tarkenton	409	54%	2568	23	8	7	39	172	0	83.66	4.59	0.70
    Fran Tarkenton	389	56%	2777	19	12	3	39	236	2	82.17	5.36	1.27
    Fran Tarkenton	386	59%	2567	11	21	4	30	111	3	65.41	3.67	-0.01
    Fran Tarkenton	378	57%	2651	18	13	3	29	180	0	80.25	5.25	1.00
    Fran Tarkenton	351	61%	2650	18	10	8	41	236	2	89.33	4.85	0.74
    Fran Tarkenton	420	55%	2992	20	18	4	27	125	2	76.01	5.02	1.00
    Fran Tarkenton	451	63%	3129	25	14	1	32	140	2	89.20	5.79	1.82
    Fran Tarkenton	495	60%	3479	21	13	5	34	46	1	84.40	5.02	1.35
    Fran Tarkenton	258	60%	1734	9	14	3	25	6	0	69.17	2.91	-0.60
    	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
    Fran Tarkenton	6150	58%	42342	327	249	83	523	3752	32	83.59	4.73	11.75
    (In bold are the career numbers)

    The passing game changed so dramatically .. meanwhile in the rushing field, 2,000 yards is still 2,000 yards... 5 YPC is still 5 YPC .. RB fumbles may be a little lower, but then again it somewhat correlates to the marginal changes in the average RB workload.

    The passing game began to improve 1978 onward, but it was still tough trending until the 90s, late 90s it began to explode, by the late 2000s I don't even... it's turned into Arena Football.
    Last edited by Lionel20; 06-28-2015 at 10:39 AM.

  2. #32
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    Agreed.. which is why I questioned the warren moon numbers you had if he had not played in the CFL. Today they don't look like a bad projection but for then it would have assumed the best start for a qb ever.
    idk about that..

    But he was certainly an underrated QB. Top 10 all-time

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rivera:30101885
    Is it me or are these two guys the same poster?
    Slash is very reasonable and a great poster. CClionrider-el20 is a numbers and history guy who doesn't watch football. You were on to something with the 2 account thing though...
    Time for some hootenanny.

  4. #34
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    Are you the guy that can't get over my last thread? .. Well, Russell Wilson is still better than Andrew Luck

  5. #35
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    Not just one thread, the foundation of your purpose here.
    Time for some hootenanny.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by IBleedPurple View Post
    Not just one thread, the foundation of your purpose here.
    Sure .. whatever

  7. #37
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    I saw Brown play twice. He clearly was out of his time physically.

    On paper, he fumbled a lot, but I don't recall it being mentioned much.

    Too bad an interesting topic was marred by so much baloney.
    I am not a con artist! I am a businessman! I have a big brain and I'm good at making deals! People are just jealous of my BIG BRAIN! BAD!

    Guess who? The future X-Presdent...

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I saw Brown play twice. He clearly was out of his time physically.

    On paper, he fumbled a lot, but I don't recall it being mentioned much.

    Too bad an interesting topic was marred by so much baloney.
    (I conservatively estimated that Brown would've played in appx 6 postseason games in his career)

    Yeah I estimated that over 9 16-game season (+ 6 postseason games) Brown would've fumbled 73 times or about 8 per season. Even for his usage rate, that's a little high. Nowhere near enough to offset all of the areas that he dominated though.

    *Revised (adding in six postseason games)

    Code:
    Name	      Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Targets	Yds	TD	YScm	Fmb	WAA
    Jim Brown	295	1,407	14	37	68	138	2	1,545   10	0.83
    Jim Brown	351	2,136	24	39	72	337	2	2,473   7	3.13
    Jim Brown	385	1,850	19	52	96	411	1	2,261	3	2.09
    Jim Brown	285	1,749	13	41	76	441	4	2,190	13	1.99
    Jim Brown	348	1,680	10	85	136	850	4	2,530	7	1.98
    Jim Brown	263	1,206	16	87	138	958	9	2,164	11	1.85
    Jim Brown	331	2,222	14	44	71	496	6	2,718	8	3.49
    Jim Brown	349	1,861	8	72	115	698	5	2,559	7	2.18
    Jim Brown	343	1,901	20	69	109	670	9	2,571	7	3.05
    										
    Jim Brown	2950	16,012	138	526	881	4,999	42	21,011	73	20.59
    Last edited by Lionel20; 06-29-2015 at 01:49 PM.

  9. #39
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    Full stats updated in the OP...

    So far my best RB list all-time according to WAA (I've only computed these 9)

    Code:
    Rank	Name	        WAA
    1	Jim Brown	20.59
    2	Barry Sanders	15.69
    3	Marshall Faulk	15.66
    4	L Tomlinson	15.35
    5	Walter Payton	15.30
    6	Emmitt Smith	14.99
    7	Adrian Peterson	10.42
    8	O.J. Simpson	9.86
    9	Eric Dickerson	9.10
    Top RB seasons all-time among these 9

    Code:
    Rank	Year	Name	        WAA
    1	1975	O.J. Simpson	3.67
    2	2006	L Tomlinson	3.65
    3	1963	Jim Brown	3.49
    4	2000	Marshall Faulk	3.20
    5	1958	Jim Brown	3.13
    6	1965	Jim Brown	3.05
    7	2001	Marshall Faulk	2.99
    8	1997	Barry Sanders	2.95
    9	1999	Marshall Faulk	2.90
    10	1973	O.J. Simpson	2.62
    11	1995	Emmitt Smith	2.60
    12	2012	Adrian Peterson	2.54
    13	1977	Walter Payton	2.49

  10. #40
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    Per @fbgchase, the only running backs in @NFL history with >4.6 yards per carry & >2500 career carries are @FredTaylorMade & @BarrySanders

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by flgatorsandjags View Post
    Per @fbgchase, the only running backs in @NFL history with >4.6 yards per carry & >2500 career carries are @FredTaylorMade & @BarrySanders
    I saw that the other day too. Pretty surprising. I'm a Taylor guy since ex-Gator but I would never have guessed he had something like that.

    Few guys are close. Charles will seemingly clobber it.

    Brown need 100 something carries. So did a couple others, kind of weird how that 2500 seemed like a magic number lol
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  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lionel20 View Post
    (I conservatively estimated that Brown would've played in appx 6 postseason games in his career)

    Brown would've fumbled 73 times or about 8 per season. Even for his usage rate, that's a little high. Nowhere near enough to offset all of the areas that he dominated though.



    [/code]
    Is it though? Remember context. Throw on those old videos. Guy gets knocked to his knees and is still not down by contact until another guy comes through and finishes him off. Coming across the field and throwing an elbow into a receivers face 2 steps after he catches the ball is ok.

    Just a quick breakdown and not complete,

    there were 243 non-QB fumbles in 1957 when Jim Brown came into the league. 12 teams, 12 game seasons.

    There was 182 last year with 32 teams playing 16 game seasons.

    1.69 non QB fumbles a game becomes .36 today. Why? you can't crush guys multiple times. You stop them and start to rip out the ball, that play is dead today. That's a 470% higher rate of fumbles then... And I bet with the pace of today's game you have more plays run in a game, making that rate even higher.

    It won't be exact here (QB rushes will affect this a tiny bit), but there were 6837 plays that were either a reception or rush in 1957 meaning a player fumbled about once every 28 touches (Jim Brown every 46).
    This year there was 24888 rush/receptions, meaning a fumble every 137 touches. So 490%... pretty much what we would think with the other number too..

    So people didn't talk about it because Jim Brown actually fumbled a lot less than most of his peers...

    Jim Brown 1 fumble every 46.5 touches

    His HOF peers in those years he played?

    John Henry Johnson once every 33.7 touches
    Hugh McElhenny every23.7
    Ollie Matson every 24.6
    Lenny Moore every 36.6
    Bobby Mitchell every 33.6
    Frank Gifford every 26.4
    Tommy McDonald every 24.6
    Jim Taylor every 60.7 (the best of the era was fumbling at over double the rate of a modern player).

    Of the 51 players in his time period with over 500 touches... 6 had a lower fumble rate than Brown...

    So Bagwell, people probably didn't mention it much because for his time, he was one of the most surehanded backs in the NFL. Tiki Barber, who had a lot of fumble issues in his career would have been known as one of the best backs at protecting the football in that era...

    It's kind of like how we could say wow, for as good as he is, Charles Woodson has played forever and isn't even top 10 all time in interceptions. Is that one of his weak spots when talking his HOF status? Quite the opposite, it is one of his strongest points, just rules have changed and QB's throw a lot fewer now.

    And again Lionel, this is where your numbers show how they are completely subjective again. Brown fumbles 40% less than his peers, why do you project him today to fumble 300% more often in the modern game than his peers? Why does one of the most sure-handed backs of his day become a fumble machine in a 9 year career and fumble over twice as much as any non-qb has in the last 9 years?

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I saw that the other day too. Pretty surprising. I'm a Taylor guy since ex-Gator but I would never have guessed he had something like that.

    Few guys are close. Charles will seemingly clobber it.

    Brown need 100 something carries. So did a couple others, kind of weird how that 2500 seemed like a magic number lol
    Yeah, Charles is just half way to his 2500 carries and is injured often, Not sure if he will make it to the 2500. Peterson is the only guy right now that is most likely a lock to join Fred and Barry.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I saw that the other day too. Pretty surprising. I'm a Taylor guy since ex-Gator but I would never have guessed he had something like that.

    Few guys are close. Charles will seemingly clobber it.

    Brown need 100 something carries. So did a couple others, kind of weird how that 2500 seemed like a magic number lol
    Its funny the thread you made the other day about which player do you think of when you think about a NFL team and more people said MJD than Taylor. Just showed you who the younger posters on the board are.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by slashsnake View Post
    Is it though? Remember context. Throw on those old videos. Guy gets knocked to his knees and is still not down by contact until another guy comes through and finishes him off. Coming across the field and throwing an elbow into a receivers face 2 steps after he catches the ball is ok.

    Just a quick breakdown and not complete,

    there were 243 non-QB fumbles in 1957 when Jim Brown came into the league. 12 teams, 12 game seasons.

    There was 182 last year with 32 teams playing 16 game seasons.

    1.69 non QB fumbles a game becomes .36 today. Why? you can't crush guys multiple times. You stop them and start to rip out the ball, that play is dead today. That's a 470% higher rate of fumbles then... And I bet with the pace of today's game you have more plays run in a game, making that rate even higher.

    It won't be exact here (QB rushes will affect this a tiny bit), but there were 6837 plays that were either a reception or rush in 1957 meaning a player fumbled about once every 28 touches (Jim Brown every 46).
    This year there was 24888 rush/receptions, meaning a fumble every 137 touches. So 490%... pretty much what we would think with the other number too..

    So people didn't talk about it because Jim Brown actually fumbled a lot less than most of his peers...

    Jim Brown 1 fumble every 46.5 touches

    His HOF peers in those years he played?

    John Henry Johnson once every 33.7 touches
    Hugh McElhenny every23.7
    Ollie Matson every 24.6
    Lenny Moore every 36.6
    Bobby Mitchell every 33.6
    Frank Gifford every 26.4
    Tommy McDonald every 24.6
    Jim Taylor every 60.7 (the best of the era was fumbling at over double the rate of a modern player).

    Of the 51 players in his time period with over 500 touches... 6 had a lower fumble rate than Brown...

    So Bagwell, people probably didn't mention it much because for his time, he was one of the most surehanded backs in the NFL. Tiki Barber, who had a lot of fumble issues in his career would have been known as one of the best backs at protecting the football in that era...

    It's kind of like how we could say wow, for as good as he is, Charles Woodson has played forever and isn't even top 10 all time in interceptions. Is that one of his weak spots when talking his HOF status? Quite the opposite, it is one of his strongest points, just rules have changed and QB's throw a lot fewer now.

    And again Lionel, this is where your numbers show how they are completely subjective again. Brown fumbles 40% less than his peers, why do you project him today to fumble 300% more often in the modern game than his peers? Why does one of the most sure-handed backs of his day become a fumble machine in a 9 year career and fumble over twice as much as any non-qb has in the last 9 years?
    lol this seems like yet another failing attempt to challenge the objectivity of my assessment on Brown.

    On the second page of this thread we had a conversation in which I said that I chose not to translate rushing stats. If I translate rushing stats for the category of fumbles, for consistency, I would have to translate the fact that RB's in Brown's day had more opportunities to run the football. If I recall, teams ran the ball about 15-20% more in Brown's era. I'd have to fully translate Browns stats across the board. His output, including fumbles would decline. I can do that.. I just felt like the changes would be somewhat trivial compare to the evolution of the passing game.

    The other thing, I think your opinion as to why fumbles are lower now is exaggerated. You know it was common back then for RBs in Brown's playing career to also return kicks and Punts. Matson did, Moore did, Bobby Mitchell did, Gifford did, McDonald did, etc... Brown returned Kicks only, and not as much as the players mentioned. How many of Bobby Mitchell's fumbles occurred of Kickoffs/Punts? Are the Kickoff/Punt touches included in your Kickoff/Punt ratio?

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