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  1. #5416
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    Oct 2008
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    6,082
    Pass

  2. #5417
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    52,469
    Yea I'd take the gamble with Estrada to bridge the gap for 1-2 years.

  3. #5418
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    17,437
    Jays have virtually no pitching ready for another 1-2 years at least in the minors so they gotta sign on free agent market.

  4. #5419
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    5,689
    I think its time to give up on Estrada. He had a few wins in August but he still had an ERA over 5. People are just sitting on that change up and crushing it. It's time to move on imo. I'd rather give Rowley, Pannone or even SRF the opportunity for pennies instead of pay Marco another 12+ million. We have too many holes to fill and not a lot of money to do it with.

    This is where the "new philosophy" of building from within will take its toll. This would be the year that AA would have used a good chunk of our prospects to go out and acquire proven MLB talent. I don't think Shapkins plan on doing that any time soon. The question is can they sell the long term approach to Donaldson and get him to sign an extension, do they try to sell him on the long term approach and end up having to trade him, or do they give in and trade some young pieces to try to field another winner in order to convince him they will be going for it each of the next 4 or 5 years.


    If you resign Donaldson then you instantly have to move Vladdy Jr. to RF next season. It will make life easier on him defensively to focus on his hitting, and it will keep him from getting blocked in 2018 and 2019.

    It is also time to give up on Devon Travis. Urena and Goins (or possibly even Martin with his age and the emergence of Lopez and Jansen) can hold down 2B until Bichette is ready though. I don't see it taking very long so I don't think they should be looking to sign a 2B to a long term deal.


    Lets say AA was still around. We would probably assume there would be a couple untouchable prospects (i.e Bichette and Guerrero) and then it would be open season on everything else to try and fill some holes on the major league roster.


    Look at the trade chips:

    Guys in AAA (or were there before September call ups):

    Alford
    Hernandez
    Jansen
    Borucki
    DSJ
    Fields
    Tellez
    Rowley
    Ramirez
    Mayza


    Guys in AA (or were before September call ups):


    Urena
    Gurriel
    Pannone
    Greene
    Harris
    SRF
    H. Ramirez
    Rios



    Guys in A ball (Dunedin or Lansing):

    Zeuch
    Perdomo
    Romano
    Zach Jackson
    Pentecost
    Palacios
    Olivares


    Guys hurt right now but could be traded in the off season:

    Pompey
    Travis



    I think we could get a quality OFer, a couple relievers and probably a starter using those assets.



    Do you really think promoting guys like Hernandez and Alford in the corners is going to get us back into contention? We had all-star level players all over the place in 2015/16.

    2015:

    Donaldson, Bautista, EE, Martin, Osuna, Estrada and Price with solid seasons from Dickey, Buerhle, Hendriks, Cecil and Colabello.

    2016:

    Donaldson, Saunders, Encarnacion, Happ, Sanchez, Estrada, Osuna with solid seasons from Martin, Tulo, Biagini and Grilli.




    This year we have had Donaldson, Smoak, Osuna and Stroman with solid seasons from Happ and Morales. We need to get solid years from Sanchez, Martin and Tulo or we need to find all-star level players at other positions to bring the caliber of this team back up if we want to compete again.

    I myself don't have a lot of faith in either Tulo or Martin playing like all-stars next year, and the only prospects we have that may eventually play like all-stars imo are Bichette and Guerrero. If moving Alford and/or Hernandez plus some of the others gets me an all-star caliber LF'er and/or SP than I say do it. Buy some players with the prospect capital accumulated like AA was every couple seasons. It would be nice it let the arms develop one more season to improve their value, but if we want to keep JD, than we need to compete in 2017. The dude wants to win, and he knows that will likely be his last deal. I doubt he resigns if we don't show signs of keeping up with LA, Boston, NY and Chicago.

  5. #5420
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    5,633
    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    I think its time to give up on Estrada. He had a few wins in August but he still had an ERA over 5. People are just sitting on that change up and crushing it. It's time to move on imo. I'd rather give Rowley, Pannone or even SRF the opportunity for pennies instead of pay Marco another 12+ million. We have too many holes to fill and not a lot of money to do it with.

    This is where the "new philosophy" of building from within will take its toll. This would be the year that AA would have used a good chunk of our prospects to go out and acquire proven MLB talent. I don't think Shapkins plan on doing that any time soon. The question is can they sell the long term approach to Donaldson and get him to sign an extension, do they try to sell him on the long term approach and end up having to trade him, or do they give in and trade some young pieces to try to field another winner in order to convince him they will be going for it each of the next 4 or 5 years.


    If you resign Donaldson then you instantly have to move Vladdy Jr. to RF next season. It will make life easier on him defensively to focus on his hitting, and it will keep him from getting blocked in 2018 and 2019.

    It is also time to give up on Devon Travis. Urena and Goins (or possibly even Martin with his age and the emergence of Lopez and Jansen) can hold down 2B until Bichette is ready though. I don't see it taking very long so I don't think they should be looking to sign a 2B to a long term deal.


    Lets say AA was still around. We would probably assume there would be a couple untouchable prospects (i.e Bichette and Guerrero) and then it would be open season on everything else to try and fill some holes on the major league roster.


    Look at the trade chips:

    Guys in AAA (or were there before September call ups):

    Alford
    Hernandez
    Jansen
    Borucki
    DSJ
    Fields
    Tellez
    Rowley
    Ramirez
    Mayza


    Guys in AA (or were before September call ups):


    Urena
    Gurriel
    Pannone
    Greene
    Harris
    SRF
    H. Ramirez
    Rios



    Guys in A ball (Dunedin or Lansing):

    Zeuch
    Perdomo
    Romano
    Zach Jackson
    Pentecost
    Palacios
    Olivares


    Guys hurt right now but could be traded in the off season:

    Pompey
    Travis



    I think we could get a quality OFer, a couple relievers and probably a starter using those assets.



    Do you really think promoting guys like Hernandez and Alford in the corners is going to get us back into contention? We had all-star level players all over the place in 2015/16.

    2015:

    Donaldson, Bautista, EE, Martin, Osuna, Estrada and Price with solid seasons from Dickey, Buerhle, Hendriks, Cecil and Colabello.

    2016:

    Donaldson, Saunders, Encarnacion, Happ, Sanchez, Estrada, Osuna with solid seasons from Martin, Tulo, Biagini and Grilli.




    This year we have had Donaldson, Smoak, Osuna and Stroman with solid seasons from Happ and Morales. We need to get solid years from Sanchez, Martin and Tulo or we need to find all-star level players at other positions to bring the caliber of this team back up if we want to compete again.

    I myself don't have a lot of faith in either Tulo or Martin playing like all-stars next year, and the only prospects we have that may eventually play like all-stars imo are Bichette and Guerrero. If moving Alford and/or Hernandez plus some of the others gets me an all-star caliber LF'er and/or SP than I say do it. Buy some players with the prospect capital accumulated like AA was every couple seasons. It would be nice it let the arms develop one more season to improve their value, but if we want to keep JD, than we need to compete in 2017. The dude wants to win, and he knows that will likely be his last deal. I doubt he resigns if we don't show signs of keeping up with LA, Boston, NY and Chicago.
    Great post. Totally agree. As I said before it's the difference between having an OOTP thinker in change vs a minor league director. I think we have to strap in for a few years and see how the guys develop, which sucks. But when you lay out the minors the way you did then there is reason to be optimistic.
    My stance is that it's easy to find replacement level players (which at best, most of those guys will become). Gotta load up on allstar caliber talent to compete in this division. And as I stated before, you can't really do that through FA with our tax situation up here. Gotta trade for these guys or live in mediocre land.

    Also tulo needs to go. He's a marginal contributer and its my feeling that he is not a good leader for our young guys. He's too scorn from the Rockies still and has nothing good to say about the business of baseball. I feel (possibly wrong) that his influence had to do with Bautista drawing a hard line with ownership and Sanchez hiring boras. I'm sure his advice is "get your money because no one cares about you. They're all liars and crooks".

  6. #5421
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    11,152

    Trade Ideas Thread III

    If the Jays did decide to move JD to say the Cards what would be a reasonable return?

    Could they get Alex Reyes? Maybe Weaver plus a mid spec or just a bunch of there upper specs with no MLB experience

  7. #5422
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    Rogers Centre
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    16,617
    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    If the Jays did decide to move JD to say the Cards what would be a reasonable return?

    Could they get Alex Reyes? Maybe Weaver plus a mid spec or just a bunch of there upper specs with no MLB experience
    I'd imagine Alex Reyes is untouchableI'd have my eye on Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver.

  8. #5423
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    11,152

    Trade Ideas Thread III

    Reyes just had TJ surgery and missed a year so he could be more available then before.

  9. #5424
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    Apr 2009
    Location
    Toronto, On
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    No way, I'd be so disappointed if it was Weaver and a mid spec. Cards have like 5 top 100 prospects.
    I'd ask for 2 of Weaver, Reyes and Flaherty plus one of their OF specs. Heck I'd even throw Happ in the deal if it gets it done. This is why I wouldn't wait until the deadline, we can get more of a killing in the offseason. I'd even let them negotiate an extension with JD.

    Then flip Osuna for a deal around Robles and were laughing.

    Problem is im dreaming, I know and won't happen, but we'd look more promising.
    Quote Originally Posted by BDawk4Prez View Post
    100 says we win at least 8.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eagles4Lyfe View Post
    Your on.

    Homerism at its finest

  10. #5425
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    Oct 2011
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    17,437
    I'd be surprised if the Cards gave up that much of their farm system for one year of JD, they have never been a team to do that. They build upon their farm, so I dont see it happening.

  11. #5426
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    17,437
    Also I know everyone wants JD back after 2018 but he's going to be nearing 33 years old by then... look at Tulo as an example of a guy who could drop off the face of the Earth instantly.

    JD has had his hot moments but this year he's been pretty average (for his caliber of player) at best except for his hot August.

    The issue is someone is going to give him 4 more years after 2018 -- do you want JD until 38? I mean he could be a great player at that age but it's rare... you got the young crop coming up, namely Bichette and Vlady... do you want a dark hole in JD potentially there in 3 years when these guys will be hitting their stride on the team?

    Of course it all comes down to money -- at $20 mil+ I would say no thanks and pass unless they front load the deal and have money to spend near the end of his contract, since the likelihood he's playing everyday at 36-37 is slim to none... he needs DH at bats this year at 31 and some injuries now catching up.

    I love JD but be careful not be carried away ... if he was 28 it would be a different story, 33 is another...

  12. #5427
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    BC
    Posts
    37,527
    Its simple, as long as the team's payroll isn't going up to the 180 range, its best to rebuild midway through next year if things aren't working out.

    Having 33+ year olds in Donaldson/Tulo/Martin making around 70 million dollar in 2019 is just not the way to go especially when only 1 of them will come close to earning his contract if that

    and I know a lot of people would prefer the rebuild to start this offseason (and I probably agree) but management has already said it isn't happening so no point in arguing it

  13. #5428
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    Oct 2011
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    17,437
    Martin has two more years to go -- at this point he's still your main catcher but get Jansen, McGuire and even Pentecost up here quick to learn from him while they can. No point in wasting the backup spot to guys like Maile or Lopez next year -- get Jansen or McGuire up next year with Martin.

    Same with shortstop. Tulo has 2 years at $20 mil per, last year is $14 mil which is still pretty high but you could just eat the salary and just release him as to not waste a spot on him unless he's still a serviceable backup in 3 years. And again get some young guys some reps with Tulo and learn from one of the best shortstops of the last generation.

    Still have a black hole in Morales for 2 more years... Tellez kinda shat the bed this year (tho we found out part of the reason was mom having cancer) so next year he gets his rep in Triple A and maybe pushing for a spot on the roster by mid year. Morales will be another black hole contract in his final year.

    So for me in 2018 you kind of transition a few young guys in and let them learn from the vets. I dont expect to win as it's a transition year for me.

  14. #5429
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    10,423
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanyo View Post
    Martin has two more years to go -- at this point he's still your main catcher but get Jansen, McGuire and even Pentecost up here quick to learn from him while they can. No point in wasting the backup spot to guys like Maile or Lopez next year -- get Jansen or McGuire up next year with Martin.

    Same with shortstop. Tulo has 2 years at $20 mil per, last year is $14 mil which is still pretty high but you could just eat the salary and just release him as to not waste a spot on him unless he's still a serviceable backup in 3 years. And again get some young guys some reps with Tulo and learn from one of the best shortstops of the last generation.


    Still have a black hole in Morales for 2 more years... Tellez kinda shat the bed this year (tho we found out part of the reason was mom having cancer) so next year he gets his rep in Triple A and maybe pushing for a spot on the roster by mid year. Morales will be another black hole contract in his final year.

    So for me in 2018 you kind of transition a few young guys in and let them learn from the vets. I dont expect to win as it's a transition year for me.
    I'd love to see a scenario where a bunch of our young C and MI prospects get to spend time with the big club learning behind Martin and Tulo. We can complain about durability and lack of production at the end of their contracts, but if they can influence the future by helping some of these younger players, it makes the contracts slightly more useful. It is one of those "organizational culture" things that I do think matters in development of younger players. If you have Jansen catching 70 games or so for example next year behind Martin, it is such a great opportunity for his development IMO. Freeing up the DH spot could help make sure some of the young backups are able to still get enough AB's while playing an understudy role.

  15. #5430
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    Feb 2009
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    5,633
    I don't want Tulo anywhere near our young guys.

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