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  1. #5821
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    This forum has become a grade school cheerleader locker room

  2. #5822
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRIUMPHATOR View Post
    As I said it stops there or FA or major trades. If those 2 are what we are running with on opening day then we are not a contender. At that point JD needs to go to assist the wishful next wave with pillars around Vlad and Bo.
    I don't think it's that simple. You also have Dwight Smith and Dalton Pompey (hopefully) competing for those spots. If everything stays the same then, yeah I agree trade JD and get it over with. But if you go and get other positions of need, we can still compete. For example if you get Baez, Nunez or someone like that, then they can play the OF 3-4 times a week as well.

    I do wonder if they're going Pearce in left and then one of the 4 kids in right.

  3. #5823
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    I don't think it's that simple. You also have Dwight Smith and Dalton Pompey (hopefully) competing for those spots. If everything stays the same then, yeah I agree trade JD and get it over with. But if you go and get other positions of need, we can still compete. For example if you get Baez, Nunez or someone like that, then they can play the OF 3-4 times a week as well.

    I do wonder if they're going Pearce in left and then one of the 4 kids in right.
    Mike if we're depending on Pearce anywhere other than a bench bat it's over. The guy has never driven in 50 Runs as a big leaguer ever.... You just don't win with a starting outfielder like that. all that does is make Donaldson less valuable.

    When you have an elite player, they are elite because positionally they give you an advantage. But when your lineup contains a subpar player that bleeds away any advantage you might have.

    Take let's say Boston for an example:
    Donaldson let's estimate he has 125 RBI. Let's say Devers gets 75 RBI over a full season, that's fair right? So Donaldson gives us a positional edge of +50 on Boston which is great. But now let's add Pearce:

    Donaldson 125+ Pearce 45= 170 Devers 75+ Benintendi 95= 170... Suddenly our entire advantage of having JD is gone. Pearce is what he is, a decent bench bat.

    If he's a starter our season is over before it's begun. Fiddle with the Numbers if you like give JD 150. But It Still doesnt change the underlying Issue

    This was why I was so against Pearce when we got him, its not like he was 24 and could break out into a much better player, he was 33, we already knew what he was the nice ops and wRC+ meant nothing because it doesnt change your track record.

    at least an unknown like Alford can surprise you, like Judge did this year, sure he could fail too I admit that. But a chance at success is better than a proven failure, we al know what pearce can do, we have 10 years of evidence....why do something we already know isnt good enough.Do you really think Shapkins didnt know all this when they Signed him?

    They depend on us to buy what they tell us.....We need to be smarter than that
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 11-09-2017 at 04:04 AM.

  4. #5824
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    Wait... so you think the team will win more games with Alford in left than Pearce (assuming both stay healthy all season)?

    Its weird to see someone put so much value into RBI on one hand, then discredit high average - contact hitters on the other. You realize how rare it is to walk in a run right?

  5. #5825
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    I think what Mike is trying to say is that the upside of having Alford in the OF everyday and Pearce on as a bench player has the potential of making the Jays better and not any worse. I have to agree with him. We know what Pearce is, Alford everyday is an unknown. There isn't any way to go but up with Alford. Worse case it doesn't work and Pearce is back in there. But I would be ok with Pearce as a utility guy (OF, 1B, DH and 2B) and Alford as your everyday OF. Interested to see how that works.

  6. #5826
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    Pearce isn't a bad bat but really his utility abilities are weak. 1B is really the only position he can play decently on the defensive end. If Morales was moved he's not a bad fit as are back up 1B/DH/LF bench guy but as a expiring guy at 6.2M he's probably best used as trade bait.

    My preferred outfield to start the season is Hernandez-Pillar-FA(Cain,Gonzalez,Bruce) with Carrera the 4th guy. Then AAA have Alford-Pompey-Ramirez with AA and Pompey ready to get the call up with a good start.

  7. #5827
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    No you misunderstand, I value on base percentage over an empty batting average. And actual runs scored and driven in over WAR. You can be an absolutely horrid run producer and still have a decent WAR just by playing defense at a position of Scarcity. As an example Aaron Judge Had 114 RBI and 128 Runs scored so between the two he had 242 Runs To His Credit. Jose Altuve has 81 RBI and 112 runs scored or 193 runs to his credit that's a difference of 49 Runs or 27% of altuve's total but they had basically the same WAR. Why...just because there are fewer good hitting second baseman than there are outfielders. But what does that have to do with the actual score of a game? Not A Damn Thing. Why should Altuve benefit because other second baseman cant hit? Why should Judge be hurt because other OF can hit? Isnt what really matters how they effect the actual score of the actual game?

    So what I do is try and place more value on the stats that are more reality based. To me a guy who hits .300 with a .330 obp Is less valuable than a guy who hits .280 with a .350 obp. A guy who hits .270 and scores 110 runs is more valuable than a guy who hits .310 but only scores 65.

    The Object of the game Isnt to have the best fancy stats, but to outscore the opponent. Fancy stats far too often forget that.

    Separate topic, As for Alford Vs Pearce... The answer is we already know that what Pearce can do isnt good enough. So why go with the guaranteed "not good enough" when the Unknown quantity might surprise you? Teams dont win with an Outfield full of 45 Rbi guys. At least Hernandez and Alford have the talent and Physical skills to do better. whether they do it or not I dont know, but I already know Pearce wont.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 11-09-2017 at 02:22 PM.

  8. #5828
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daboyz View Post
    I think what Mike is trying to say is that the upside of having Alford in the OF everyday and Pearce on as a bench player has the potential of making the Jays better and not any worse. I have to agree with him. We know what Pearce is, Alford everyday is an unknown. There isn't any way to go but up with Alford. Worse case it doesn't work and Pearce is back in there. But I would be ok with Pearce as a utility guy (OF, 1B, DH and 2B) and Alford as your everyday OF. Interested to see how that works.
    Exactly. I'd rather play Russian roulette with a gun with 5 bullets than get thrown out a plane at 40,000 feet with no parachute. I'm probably a dead man anyway, but at least one gives me a chance.

  9. #5829
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    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    Pearce isn't a bad bat but really his utility abilities are weak. 1B is really the only position he can play decently on the defensive end. If Morales was moved he's not a bad fit as are back up 1B/DH/LF bench guy but as a expiring guy at 6.2M he's probably best used as trade bait.

    My preferred outfield to start the season is Hernandez-Pillar-FA(Cain,Gonzalez,Bruce) with Carrera the 4th guy. Then AAA have Alford-Pompey-Ramirez with AA and Pompey ready to get the call up with a good start.
    Yeah, I don't want Pearce starting in LF, I'm just thinking that it is a distinct possibility. I prefer not Bruce, but I do want to see the kids get a shot to compete for one OF spot. If it's me, I'm throwing a boatload of specs at the Marlins and spending my money on Stanton.

  10. #5830
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    Yeah, I don't want Pearce starting in LF, I'm just thinking that it is a distinct possibility. I prefer not Bruce, but I do want to see the kids get a shot to compete for one OF spot. If it's me, I'm throwing a boatload of specs at the Marlins and spending my money on Stanton.
    I'll be very interested in seeing what it takes to get Stanton. Some think a big haul some think not much just take the money. I think it's somewhere in between. I just hope a team like STL or SF ends up getting him.

  11. #5831
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    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    I'll be very interested in seeing what it takes to get Stanton. Some think a big haul some think not much just take the money. I think it's somewhere in between. I just hope a team like STL or SF ends up getting him.
    Unfortunately this screams Dodgers to me. They're not averse to spending money and losing the world series will give them a reason.

    If Rogers really is intent on being competitive then he should be here. If it costs Vlad so be it. That's why they are so confusing. Pick a direction and act accordingly. This Is why im not sold on Shapkins. They seem too willing to play along with ownership into deceiving the fanbase to keep revenues high.

    Im pretty sure shapkins believes In rebuilding, but rogers Is afraid that revenues will suffer If they do. So the plan Is to delude us all with false promises for as long as they can get away with it and hope the rebuild is done before we notice we've been deceived.

    I believe that Toronto fans are smart enough to get behind a true rebuild and would embrace it. It would be shorter too if they were upfront about it. Signing Estrada does nothing for us longterm, he had value as trade asset just like Liriano and Smith. So now we pretend to compete while assets get older and lose whatever value they had. Josh Donaldson, does he resign knowing we're undermanned and not legit world series or bust competitors. Does he as a competitor give up his last best hope for a ring to stay with this team? He's not 26, his days as an Elite Superstar are finite, he'll get paid wherever he goes. Is this the squad that takes him where he wants to be, as the World Series Champion?

    I cant honestly say I'd blame him if he said no. so If this is the course we're taking, Go All In. Get Stanton. Even if It costs Vlad.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 11-10-2017 at 02:30 AM.

  12. #5832
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    Exactly. I'd rather play Russian roulette with a gun with 5 bullets than get thrown out a plane at 40,000 feet with no parachute. I'm probably a dead man anyway, but at least one gives me a chance.
    WOW we agree!!! Is this a first?

    lol

  13. #5833
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    Lol I've pretty much said the same thing since last off season (minus the Stanton part).

    This team has done a great job of just getting by and not being decisive in any real which way. Fortunately for us, they will either decide this off season or the decision will be made for them with JD's contract coming due.

    If they let him walk for nothing, it will signal a team moving in the wrong direction.

  14. #5834
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
    This forum has become a grade school cheerleader locker room
    Hey! I was a grade school cheerleader. What you trying to say.

    ...actually I wasn't but this comment made me laugh

  15. #5835
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagles4Lyfe View Post
    Playoffs more than proved, it's a BP depth kind of era. No matter what they say, we need two BP pieces no matter what or who we have right now. As we know BP arms fluctuate from year to year and I'm tired of having a near elite closer but yet having double digit blown saves by the team as a whole.

    I don't think anyone here can safely say they know who exactly they'll confidentally plug into the closers role, should Osuna struggle.
    As much as I love him, I think it's smart we trade Osuna before he diminishes his value soon, because I have a feeling he'll regress.
    The playoffs proved the literal opposite of this. The team that won had no BP and used their starters strategically to maneuver the lack of BP.

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