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  1. #6511
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    And Boston + Yankees were vulnerable that year.

  2. #6512
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    Yea but the dynamics would be different there.

    A team with a run differential at the top of the league trends much more positively than a team who has a negative run differential despite a similar record.
    well what makes you think we would have a negative run differential in this hypothetical?
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  3. #6513
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamiecballer View Post
    well what makes you think we would have a negative run differential in this hypothetical?
    Well you said we're be comparable to Oakland, who is a .548 team with only a +20 run differential. We are a .476 team with -31. Most other teams within the vicinity of Oakland (outside of LAD and Cubs who have excess elite bats) are also in that low + run differential so that would be our best case scenario, which is pretty far off from where the Blue Jays were in 2015.

    So if we were a .500 ish team right now, we'd probably be in a negative position and if we were a positive, it'd be a low range like Philly (who has +4).

    Not sure where the difference would be made up anyway. Solarte, who is Donaldson's replacement, has 45 RBIs and Donaldson is probably knocking in like 55-60 RBIs (which would put him top 10 in the MLB in RBIs) so the net difference is 10-15 if Donaldson played instead of Solarte all this time. If Sanchez allowed 15 less runs, he'd be a 2.82 ERA pitcher, which is probably a bit of a wishful thinking, and we'd still be in a negative position at that point. The circumstances might work out where you add more wins to the win total (ie add like 4 more wins and 4 less losses to make us a .520 win team) but the run differential won't have the same effect as we still might be with a negative run differential.
    Last edited by Raps08-09 Champ; 06-30-2018 at 08:45 PM.

  4. #6514
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raps08-09 Champ View Post
    Well you said we're be comparable to Oakland, who is a .548 team with only a +20 run differential. We are a .476 team with -31. Most other teams within the vicinity of Oakland (outside of LAD and Cubs who have excess elite bats) are also in that low + run differential so that would be our best case scenario, which is pretty far off from where the Blue Jays were in 2015.

    So if we were a .500 ish team right now, we'd probably be in a negative position and if we were a positive, it'd be a low range like Philly (who has +4).

    Not sure where the difference would be made up anyway. Solarte, who is Donaldson's replacement, has 45 RBIs and Donaldson is probably knocking in like 55-60 RBIs (which would put him top 10 in the MLB in RBIs) so the net difference is 10-15 if Donaldson played instead of Solarte all this time. If Sanchez allowed 15 less runs, he'd be a 2.82 ERA pitcher, which is probably a bit of a wishful thinking, and we'd still be in a negative position at that point. The circumstances might work out where you add more wins to the win total (ie add like 4 more wins and 4 less losses to make us a .520 win team) but the run differential won't have the same effect as we still might be with a negative run differential.
    fair enough
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  5. #6515
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    You dont just swap JD for Solarte. Solarte can play 3B, SS and 2B. Even if JD was healthy Solarte would have been getting AB's.

  6. #6516
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    You dont just swap JD for Solarte. Solarte can play 3B, SS and 2B. Even if JD was healthy Solarte would have been getting AB's.
    I agree with you. I think with what we've gotten from some of these other guys we are probably still talking about the possibility of pushing for a second wildcard if Sanchez and Donaldson were not so darn disappointing.

    Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

  7. #6517
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    You dont just swap JD for Solarte. Solarte can play 3B, SS and 2B. Even if JD was healthy Solarte would have been getting AB's.
    I was trying to make it as conservative as possible.

    Even if you took out the lowest producing players and replaced it with an MVP JD's production which is the max best case to widen the run differential, how much more runs are we hitting in? Probably a low positive run differential.

  8. #6518
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    Rumours tonight Brewers inquired about Happ. What do they have in their system, that is attainable?

  9. #6519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robbie View Post
    Rumours tonight Brewers inquired about Happ. What do they have in their system, that is attainable?
    Came here to ask the same question. Brewers are famous for their positional player development. Sucks because I want pitchera for happ but I wouldn't trust the Brewers pitching scouts. If it's a trade with Milwaukee then I want positional prospects.

  10. #6520
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    Didn't Milwaukee just empty their farm to get Yelich? I can't say I would be too excited over anyone in their system other than Hiura.

  11. #6521
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    Didn't Milwaukee just empty their farm to get Yelich? I can't say I would be too excited over anyone in their system other than Hiura.
    Yankees most likely to trade for Happ. They have the deepest farm system. Also has the biggest need. Main common factors there.

    I wish we traded him to the Brewers because better chance we can re-sign him. If he goes to Yankees and does well no doubt he will finish his career there.

  12. #6522
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    Better be giving us one of their top 3 prospects.

  13. #6523
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    So the Yanks are apparently emerging as front runners for Happ. One of Sheffield or Frazier would be great. If they could sweeten the pot and get both that'd be amazing. That's wishful thinking though.

  14. #6524
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    May 2013
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    A lot of trade talk yesterday on Yankees radio station. Callers were speculating on big trades, mostly with Mets. With Thor or Degrom or both going to Yankees. Frazier, Andujar, and a highly rated centerfield prospect going other way. One guy said Mets would never trade with Yankees, another said Mets have no farm system.

    To me I think Frazier is overrated. A career .818 minor league OPS? His dWAR is negative in Majors. I would definitely go for pitchers

  15. #6525
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    The Yankees are loaded in pitching prospects, that is what the Jays have to ask for in any deal with them. Frazier is the most ready, but he isn't what they need next year and moving forward. They need TORP type of prospects, and in a pretty bad way.

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