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  1. #6046
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    oh I get what the stat means it's you and mell who dont. You don't understand it at all. Bill James wrote about this specifically 20 years ago in his abstract referring to the great Ozzie Smith and concluded that no player was comparable defensively to another Offensively using WAR. No Player, and considering he Invented the damn statistic Its logical he knew what he was talking about.

    If anything its you guys who dont understand It...he concluded in his essay that there is no relationship whatsoever in Offensive and Defensive WAR other than as a graphical representation WITHIN the subset.

    The fact you guys refuse to accept that your using the stat wrong to mean something it clearly wasn't meant to relate is on you. Not me. Because of my promise to Jamie C I won't go any further but I suggest you take out your Baseball Abstracts and read his essay before you continue to make fools of yourself.

    Defensive components of WAR are not equal to Offensive WAR, never were, never will be. the fact that you and others keep trying to say that It does only shows your own lack of understanding. That Is NOT just my position its Bill James as well.

    If you'd like a year and page citatation from his abstract I'd be glad to provide it for you. WAR was never meant to be added together Offensive and Defensive as they do now. they simply dont have the same value.

    Out simply, 1 WAR of Defense is not equal to 1 WAR of Offense. I get it. YOU however dont. That's not arrogance thats just being better informed

    And Jamie I hope you understand, I just can't let people who continue to spread false information as fact, go on without correcting it. It's not like the info isn't readily available and there for everyone to see it. They are just too lazy to look it up. Bill James has been trying to get this across to people for 20 years. It's his biggest regret.

    Part of his essay is right here (online)

    http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/po...mes-the-writer

    Though i'd suggest reading the whole essay in the abstract. He has spoken more about the Falacy of defensive metrics than any other subject in his career. The fact that so many use WAR to spread these misunderstandings grates on him.
    Blah blah blah. I have barely mentioned WAR in here, if at all. How the **** can you possibly know my understanding of the stat if I never speak of it.

    This is my last post here in the Jays forum. Until this troll gets the **** out of here.

  2. #6047
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    Blah blah blah. I have barely mentioned WAR in here, if at all. How the **** can you possibly know my understanding of the stat if I never speak of it.

    This is my last post here in the Jays forum. Until this troll gets the **** out of here.
    I guarantee you'll be back, that will make you a liar too

    You said I didn't understand it did you not? Obviously you did, it's why I quoted you. I obviously understand it better than you.

    Grow up and read the essay. Stop choosing to be uninformed. You don't like me. I don't care. Why should I if you willfully choose to remain uninformed. I share what I learn.
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-12-2018 at 02:34 PM.

  3. #6048
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    Blah blah blah. I have barely mentioned WAR in here, if at all. How the **** can you possibly know my understanding of the stat if I never speak of it.

    This is my last post here in the Jays forum. Until this troll gets the **** out of here.
    To be fair you claimed he didn't understand it and that was his rebuttal. If you truly don't want to see his posts just use the ignore option.

  4. #6049
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    Quote Originally Posted by R. Johnson#3 View Post
    To be fair you claimed he didn't understand it and that was his rebuttal. If you truly don't want to see his posts just use the ignore option.
    Thank you RJ. I appreciate it. And I do really recommend that essay in his abstract. It really opened my eyes to so much. Its Excellent

    I really wish they All were in ebook form, I'd make everyone a copy. I do have one however 1984. If you or anyone would like a copy I'll Happily send It to you
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-12-2018 at 02:44 PM.

  5. #6050
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    oh I get what the stat means it's you and mell who dont. You don't understand it at all. Bill James wrote about this specifically 20 years ago in his abstract referring to the great Ozzie Smith and concluded that no player was comparable defensively to another Offensively using WAR. No Player, and considering he Invented the damn statistic Its logical he knew what he was talking about.

    If anything its you guys who dont understand It...he concluded in his essay that there is no relationship whatsoever in Offensive and Defensive WAR other than as a graphical representation WITHIN the subset.

    The fact you guys refuse to accept that your using the stat wrong to mean something it clearly wasn't meant to relate is on you. Not me. Because of my promise to Jamie C I won't go any further but I suggest you take out your Baseball Abstracts and read his essay before you continue to make fools of yourself.

    Defensive components of WAR are not equal to Offensive WAR, never were, never will be. the fact that you and others keep trying to say that It does only shows your own lack of understanding. That Is NOT just my position its Bill James as well.

    If you'd like a year and page citatation from his abstract I'd be glad to provide it for you. WAR was never meant to be added together Offensive and Defensive as they do now. they simply dont have the same value.

    Out simply, 1 WAR of Defense is not equal to 1 WAR of Offense. I get it. YOU however dont. That's not arrogance thats just being better informed

    And Jamie I hope you understand, I just can't let people who continue to spread false information as fact, go on without correcting it. It's not like the info isn't readily available and there for everyone to see it. They are just too lazy to look it up. Bill James has been trying to get this across to people for 20 years. It's his biggest regret.

    Part of his essay is right here (online)

    http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/po...mes-the-writer

    Though i'd suggest reading the whole essay in the abstract. He has spoken more about the Falacy of defensive metrics than any other subject in his career. The fact that so many use WAR to spread these misunderstandings grates on his nerves. but how many times must he say that Defensive WAR is not the same as Offensive WAR and is merely a graphical representation In terms we are familiar with.

    Saying Pillar is more valuable than Bruce using WAR just proof of their Ignorance.
    I understand what it means and how fWAR is determined. I didn't even bring up WAR initially. You did. Defensive metrics may not be perfect yet, but defense still matters. You seem to only be concerned with one side of the game. Like I said I'll admit Bruce is a better hitter ( he's not even that good of a hitter relative to his position), but he's not better at anything else. It can get tricky using it across positions, but it's not unreasonable to see why WAR favors Pillar than Bruce over the past few seasons. Bruce was pretty damn bad ( hitting wise) in 15. Bruce is certainly capable of repeating his 2017 again, but his 3 prior seasons cause me enough concern to not give him that much money. I wouldn't be shocked if he's worthless all 3 years.

  6. #6051
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mell413 View Post
    I understand what it means and how fWAR is determined. I didn't even bring up WAR initially. You did. Defensive metrics may not be perfect yet, but defense still matters. You seem to only be concerned with one side of the game. Like I said I'll admit Bruce is a better hitter ( he's not even that good of a hitter relative to his position), but he's not better at anything else. It can get tricky using it across positions, but it's not unreasonable to see why WAR favors Pillar than Bruce over the past few seasons. Bruce was pretty damn bad ( hitting wise) in 15. Bruce is certainly capable of repeating his 2017 again, but his 3 prior seasons cause me enough concern to not give him that much money. I wouldn't be shocked if he's worthless all 3 years.
    See this is reasonable and I don't deny pillar has value on defense. of course he does, only a fool would deny it.. Especially in centerfield.

    My only issue is one of degree. Is Pillar 3 times better than Bruce as WAR indicates ? I Honestly dont see how thats possible. I tried using actual runs (by using runs and rbi) but I too recognize thats flawed as well, runs and rbi are dependent on others.

    I suppose HRs could be fair and even by that Bruce created 20 more than kevin. I just dont See how with an average of 7 chances a game, that Pillar saves 20 runs more over an average center fielder. What does he do, maybe make one catch a week that Adam Jones Or Jacoby Ellsbury wouldnt? If That? I just don't see how that makes up even 20 runs and I think Bruce is better than just 20 Runs to an offense when compared to Pillar. That was what Bill James was saying. It doesn't pass the common sense test. Pillar while great defensively can't possibly be that much better than average to make up the difference
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-12-2018 at 03:20 PM.

  7. #6052
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike_noodles View Post
    Blah blah blah. I have barely mentioned WAR in here, if at all. How the **** can you possibly know my understanding of the stat if I never speak of it.

    This is my last post here in the Jays forum. Until this troll gets the **** out of here.
    Dont leave dude. Just pick your battles. We've all known you here for years. No one here thinks youre a liar.

  8. #6053
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    See this is reasonable and I don't deny pillar has value on defense. of course he does, only a fool would deny it.. Especially in centerfield.

    My only issue is one of degree. Is Pillar 3 times better than Bruce as WAR indicates ? I Honestly dont see how thats possible. I tried using actual runs (by using runs and rbi) but I too recognize thats flawed as well, runs and rbi are dependent on others.

    I suppose HRs could be fair and even by that Bruce created 20 more than kevin. I just dont See how with an average of 7 chances a game, that Pillar saves 20 runs more over an average center fielder. What does he do, maybe make one catch a week that Adam Jones Or Jacoby Ellsbury wouldnt? If That? I just don't see how that makes up even 20 runs and I think Bruce is better than just 20 Runs to an offense when compared to Pillar. That was what Bill James was saying. It doesn't pass the common sense test. Pillar while great defensively can't possibly be that much better than average to make up the difference

    Saving runs can be just as important as scoring them. Sometimes even more important.

    You need to consider just how bad Bruce is defensively. He's not an average defender, he is below average. He isn't saving any runs on defense, he is costing his team runs. This is how Pillar can come out on top after everything is computed. He is above average at a demanding defensive position, while Bruce is below average (at a much less demanding position).

    So Bruce may be producing more runs at the plate, but he is normally costing them runs in the OF. Last year was the exception. He actually wasn't that bad on defense. Instead of -11 DRS (defensive runs saved) he was actually +6. Where Pillar took a slight dip. He had +21 DRS in 2016 but only +15 DRS in 2017. So in 2016 there was a difference in runs saved between them of 32.

  9. #6054
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    Quote Originally Posted by bartron_44 View Post
    Saving runs can be just as important as scoring them. Sometimes even more important.

    You need to consider just how bad Bruce is defensively. He's not an average defender, he is below average. He isn't saving any runs on defense, he is costing his team runs. This is how Pillar can come out on top after everything is computed. He is above average at a demanding defensive position, while Bruce is below average (at a much less demanding position).

    So Bruce may be producing more runs at the plate, but he is normally costing them runs in the OF. Last year was the exception. He actually wasn't that bad on defense. Instead of -11 DRS (defensive runs saved) he was actually +6. Where Pillar took a slight dip. He had +21 DRS in 2016 but only +15 DRS in 2017. So in 2016 there was a difference in runs saved between them of 32.
    I totally agree with the statement that saving runs is just as important as producing (scoring) them. I think the problem is more of the make up of the team than the play of Pillar. 2 years ago his defensive prowess was more of a luxury because of the offense infront of him. Now the team is a lot more predictable with more holes and even worse, less production. IMO the identity of the team needs to change, and I believe that is where the hang up is in terms of the FO. They need ticket sales plain and simple, they know they need to change the type of team, but do not want to sell off the farm to do it.

    I like the idea of a player like Cain etc. because of the dimension they could bring to the team. I also thing playing Alford would at CF would be close defensively to Pillar, although not proven. His offensive up side has more potential.

    For me BO AND VLAD are untouchable, because they represent the identity thee team should have in the near future. JD is the bridge and can be productive for awhile longer.

    As for tradable prospects for controllable or dynamic talent, I would be comfortable with moving as much as 4 to 5 specs. To achieve a fresh new outlook for the Jays, while allowing Tulo and martin to be place holders for the eventual coming talent.

    I still like the OF of Pham-Alford-Teoscar

  10. #6055
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    Bart but you still dont get it DRS was created by John Dewan and it has the same flaw as WAR, Runs is only used for familiarity. Thes are not ACTUAL RUNS. it seems as fans have a hard time understanding that. they are only a metric to compare members of a specific group. Do you honestly think Pillar saved 58 actual runs in the last 3 years? Give your head a shake!!!

    the same John Dewan also created another stat SDI where he compares players to their peers by position. lets take a look:

    Center field
    Player Team SDI
    Byron Buxton MIN 20.0
    Lorenzo Cain KCR 10.1
    Jarrod Dyson SEA 6.8
    George Springer HOU 2.0
    Kevin Pillar TOR 2.0
    Rajai Davis BOS 0.4
    Mike Trout LAA 0.2
    Jackie Bradley BOS 0.0
    Carlos Gomez TEX -2.7
    Mikie Mahtook DET -4.4
    Adam Jones BAL -9.0

    Right field
    Player Team SDI
    Jason Heyward CHC 12.8
    Yasiel Puig LAD 9.5
    Giancarlo Stanton MIA 8.2
    Jay Bruce NYM 6.6
    Gregory Polanco PIT 2.0
    Hunter Pence SFG 1.9
    David Peralta ARI 0.9
    Bryce Harper WSN 0.4
    Nick Markakis ATL -0.2
    Hunter Renfroe SDP -0.9
    Carlos Gonzalez COL -3.0
    Scott Schebler CIN -3.3
    Domingo Santana MIL -6.9

    http://sabr.org/sdi/2017-final#ALCF

    as you can see Bruce was actually better when compared to their peers


    NL overall leaders
    Player Team Position SDI
    Jason Heyward CHC RF 12.8
    Nolan Arenado COL 3B 11.0
    Austin Hedges SDP C 10.7
    Brandon Belt SFG 1B 10.7
    Tucker Barnhart CIN C 10.4
    DJ LeMahieu COL 2B 10.2
    David Freese PIT 3B 9.5
    Yasiel Puig LAD RF 9.5
    Manny Pina MIL C 8.9
    Jedd Gyorko STL 3B 8.9
    Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 8.8
    Addison Russell CHC SS 8.3
    Yasmani Grandal LAD C 8.2
    Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 8.2
    Michael Taylor WSN CF 7.9
    Joey Votto CIN 1B 7.9
    Yadier Molina STL C 7.1
    Ender Inciarte ATL CF 7.1
    Corey Seager LAD SS 7.0
    Manuel Margot SDP CF 6.9
    Jay Bruce NYM RF 6.6
    Marcell Ozuna MIA LF 6.5
    Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 6.3
    Anthony Rendon WSN 3B 6.2
    Billy Hamilton CIN CF 5.7

    AL overall leaders
    Player Team Position SDI
    Mookie Betts BOS RF 22.0
    Byron Buxton MIN CF 20.0
    Andrelton Simmons LAA SS 18.8
    Martin Maldonado LAA C 14.1
    Alex Gordon KCR LF 11.1
    Brett Gardner NYY LF 10.8
    Elvis Andrus TEX SS 10.1
    Lorenzo Cain KCR CF 10.1
    Aaron Judge NYY RF 8.5
    Sandy Leon BOS C 7.7
    Justin Upton DET LF 7.7
    Christian Vazquez BOS C 7.1
    Jarrod Dyson SEA CF 6.8
    Carlos Santana CLE 1B 6.7
    Evan Longoria TBR 3B 6.5
    Francisco Lindor CLE SS 6.5
    Kole Calhoun LAA RF 6.4
    Didi Gregorius NYY SS 6.3
    Todd Frazier CHW 3B 5.9
    Ian Kinsler DET 2B 5.8
    Kyle Seager SEA 3B 5.7
    Mitch Moreland BOS 1B 5.5
    Jason Castro MIN C 4.6
    Avisail Garcia CHW RF 4.4
    Max Kepler MIN RF 4.2

    Bruce actually was among the league leaders while Pillar wasnt


    youre falling for the hometown hype and failing to account for Positional differences. of course a CF is gonna get more balls hit their way. thats obvious. but compared to other CF Pillar isnt any better than Bruce is when compared to RF. in fact in 2017 Pillar was worse


    on offense you can easily see that Pillar isnt in Bruce's class. on offense players drive in and score ACTUAL RUNS. And Pillar simply isnt even in the conversation with Bruce. its that simple

    this entire discussion is simply because you dont understand the difference between a metric that uses the word "runs" as a term that we are familiar with, with ACTUAL RUNS. Every stathead knows that there has never been and likely never will be a stat that can accurately measure ACTUAL RUNS SAVED.

    Thats the difference between us, I read everything I can on baseball. Im not any smarter than anyone, but I have lived longer and thus have a larger mental database to draw from..... I think where the disconnect comes from is understanding what a metric is and what actual runs are, and how they are applied,

    its not a strict Pillar vs Bruce comparison, on defense. its Pillar over a replacement CF vs Bruce over a replacement RF, because in the end because they do in fact play different positions and the game itself will favor a CF over RF from a defensive standpoint

    and just to be clear I agree Pillar is a better outfielder thats obvious, but what i am saying is that theres no way that Pillar saves as many runs as you think he does. he doesnt even come close

    theres a reason Bruce makes a ton more than Pillar does, I think we both know Pillar will never be a 13m a year Player
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-12-2018 at 07:12 PM.

  11. #6056
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    Mike, WAR post, just want to make a point. I'm positive teams don't use the same stats we do from fangraphs. I believe every team invests heavily in an analytics department. What I'm trying to say is, I believe they would be using the formula that outputs a WAR value, with their own adjustment. IE: 0.3x + y = z where z = WAR, Y = offensive runs, and x = defensive runs. This is of course not even close to how complex the formulas are, but just to give a simple example of what I mean. The 0.3 could be changed from organization to organization based on what an organization values more and how they want to build a team.

    Perhaps what I'm trying to say is its a very basic foundation which is not the tell all of a player, but, its also a really good starting to point to derive further analysis from. Not to mention, Im almost positive there's a direct correlation for WAR team total and the top end teams last year.

  12. #6057
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daboyz View Post
    In the end I am in agreement that there are better options then Bruce, but it's hard to back that Bruce would not be an upgrade to what we had last season, and how he would help the team this season. My hopes are that the Jays do have a better player they are targeting and is being brought in. If not, then I will get on the train that the Jays messed this up and Bruce should have been signed. I guess we sit back and see.
    An upgrade from Bautista isn't that hard. But you can still be a negative player and be an upgrade from Bautista last year. I'd probably gamble on Jose at half the price than Bruce.

  13. #6058
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    Quote Originally Posted by TO Rapz View Post
    Mike, WAR post, just want to make a point. I'm positive teams don't use the same stats we do from fangraphs. I believe every team invests heavily in an analytics department. What I'm trying to say is, I believe they would be using the formula that outputs a WAR value, with their own adjustment. IE: 0.3x + y = z where z = WAR, Y = offensive runs, and x = defensive runs. This is of course not even close to how complex the formulas are, but just to give a simple example of what I mean. The 0.3 could be changed from organization to organization based on what an organization values more and how they want to build a team.

    Perhaps what I'm trying to say is its a very basic foundation which is not the tell all of a player, but, its also a really good starting to point to derive further analysis from. Not to mention, Im almost positive there's a direct correlation for WAR team total and the top end teams last year.
    oh absolutely, TO rapz, im sure you are right, i know for a fact that corporations do that every day, as a federal employee we "borrowed" and adapted to our needs whatever algorithms we felt were useful to us. so yes im sure that Major league baseball does the same.

    my only point is that the casual fan in a general sense doesnt have the analytical experience to do that, they think they do, but they really dont. I have found that the casual fan routinely makes the same mistake Bartron was making. its an easy mistake to make. Bartron obviously felt that DRS referred to actual runs and was not a metric.

    that is an example of what youre talking about. that is an algorithmic attempt to equalize reality and give it a number. but unfortunately those algorithms are constantly updated because they simply cannot meet the standard of repeatability, as with any theory if you cant repeat it every time, it becomes another failed attempt.

    certain sabremetric endeavors are out there which are in a constant state of flux. and one of the most important basic tenets is knowing which is a metric and which is not. WAR is a metric, Runs scored is not, ops+ is a metric, but ops is not. any stat that attempts to equalize is a metric, while counting stats or averages or percentages are not.

    thats why you have to understand first what a particular metric is trying to measure to effectively use it.

    at the start bill james used a 3 year base, and weighted the most recent years more heavily than the older year, then averaged years out to get a baseline, but we are far beyond that now, now we use equivalencies, standard deviations and competitive coefficients. the average fan doesnt have access to that. teams do however, and as you say they use them. The difference is the casual fan thinks WAR is the end result, When in fact it is merely the beginning.

    Teams do have Proprietary data, its why the whole Astros-Cardinals fiasco came about. Teams keep that data to themselves and are highly secret. they'd be foolish if they didnt. its why actuarials make the millions they do, their ability to derive proprietary software to project and predict based on the datasets is incredibly complex.

    by the way if youre really into this topic, listen to this Podcast, its something you might enjoy, it gives some insight in how this data is used

    https://www.fanragsports.com/the-inf...tions-episode/
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 01-13-2018 at 01:04 AM.

  14. #6059
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    The problem with Bruce is his last 3-4 years. He had a good year this past season, he was horrible the 3 before. So what is he? What will he be for the length of his contract? He could turn out to be a bargain but if I was a GM Iíd be leaning the opposite way and I really think Hernandezís value would be better then Bruce during the stretch.

    Iíd say Iím more of a look to the future type guy, well wanting to be competitive now where some are more of the do what ever it takes for next season.

  15. #6060
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    Bart but you still dont get it DRS was created by John Dewan and it has the same flaw as WAR, Runs is only used for familiarity. Thes are not ACTUAL RUNS. it seems as fans have a hard time understanding that. they are only a metric to compare members of a specific group. Do you honestly think Pillar saved 58 actual runs in the last 3 years? Give your head a shake!!!

    the same John Dewan also created another stat SDI where he compares players to their peers by position. lets take a look:

    Center field
    Player Team SDI
    Byron Buxton MIN 20.0
    Lorenzo Cain KCR 10.1
    Jarrod Dyson SEA 6.8
    George Springer HOU 2.0
    Kevin Pillar TOR 2.0
    Rajai Davis BOS 0.4
    Mike Trout LAA 0.2
    Jackie Bradley BOS 0.0
    Carlos Gomez TEX -2.7
    Mikie Mahtook DET -4.4
    Adam Jones BAL -9.0

    Right field
    Player Team SDI
    Jason Heyward CHC 12.8
    Yasiel Puig LAD 9.5
    Giancarlo Stanton MIA 8.2
    Jay Bruce NYM 6.6
    Gregory Polanco PIT 2.0
    Hunter Pence SFG 1.9
    David Peralta ARI 0.9
    Bryce Harper WSN 0.4
    Nick Markakis ATL -0.2
    Hunter Renfroe SDP -0.9
    Carlos Gonzalez COL -3.0
    Scott Schebler CIN -3.3
    Domingo Santana MIL -6.9

    http://sabr.org/sdi/2017-final#ALCF

    as you can see Bruce was actually better when compared to their peers


    NL overall leaders
    Player Team Position SDI
    Jason Heyward CHC RF 12.8
    Nolan Arenado COL 3B 11.0
    Austin Hedges SDP C 10.7
    Brandon Belt SFG 1B 10.7
    Tucker Barnhart CIN C 10.4
    DJ LeMahieu COL 2B 10.2
    David Freese PIT 3B 9.5
    Yasiel Puig LAD RF 9.5
    Manny Pina MIL C 8.9
    Jedd Gyorko STL 3B 8.9
    Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 8.8
    Addison Russell CHC SS 8.3
    Yasmani Grandal LAD C 8.2
    Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF 8.2
    Michael Taylor WSN CF 7.9
    Joey Votto CIN 1B 7.9
    Yadier Molina STL C 7.1
    Ender Inciarte ATL CF 7.1
    Corey Seager LAD SS 7.0
    Manuel Margot SDP CF 6.9
    Jay Bruce NYM RF 6.6
    Marcell Ozuna MIA LF 6.5
    Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 6.3
    Anthony Rendon WSN 3B 6.2
    Billy Hamilton CIN CF 5.7

    AL overall leaders
    Player Team Position SDI
    Mookie Betts BOS RF 22.0
    Byron Buxton MIN CF 20.0
    Andrelton Simmons LAA SS 18.8
    Martin Maldonado LAA C 14.1
    Alex Gordon KCR LF 11.1
    Brett Gardner NYY LF 10.8
    Elvis Andrus TEX SS 10.1
    Lorenzo Cain KCR CF 10.1
    Aaron Judge NYY RF 8.5
    Sandy Leon BOS C 7.7
    Justin Upton DET LF 7.7
    Christian Vazquez BOS C 7.1
    Jarrod Dyson SEA CF 6.8
    Carlos Santana CLE 1B 6.7
    Evan Longoria TBR 3B 6.5
    Francisco Lindor CLE SS 6.5
    Kole Calhoun LAA RF 6.4
    Didi Gregorius NYY SS 6.3
    Todd Frazier CHW 3B 5.9
    Ian Kinsler DET 2B 5.8
    Kyle Seager SEA 3B 5.7
    Mitch Moreland BOS 1B 5.5
    Jason Castro MIN C 4.6
    Avisail Garcia CHW RF 4.4
    Max Kepler MIN RF 4.2

    Bruce actually was among the league leaders while Pillar wasnt


    youre falling for the hometown hype and failing to account for Positional differences. of course a CF is gonna get more balls hit their way. thats obvious. but compared to other CF Pillar isnt any better than Bruce is when compared to RF. in fact in 2017 Pillar was worse


    on offense you can easily see that Pillar isnt in Bruce's class. on offense players drive in and score ACTUAL RUNS. And Pillar simply isnt even in the conversation with Bruce. its that simple

    this entire discussion is simply because you dont understand the difference between a metric that uses the word "runs" as a term that we are familiar with, with ACTUAL RUNS. Every stathead knows that there has never been and likely never will be a stat that can accurately measure ACTUAL RUNS SAVED.

    Thats the difference between us, I read everything I can on baseball. Im not any smarter than anyone, but I have lived longer and thus have a larger mental database to draw from..... I think where the disconnect comes from is understanding what a metric is and what actual runs are, and how they are applied,

    its not a strict Pillar vs Bruce comparison, on defense. its Pillar over a replacement CF vs Bruce over a replacement RF, because in the end because they do in fact play different positions and the game itself will favor a CF over RF from a defensive standpoint

    and just to be clear I agree Pillar is a better outfielder thats obvious, but what i am saying is that theres no way that Pillar saves as many runs as you think he does. he doesnt even come close

    theres a reason Bruce makes a ton more than Pillar does, I think we both know Pillar will never be a 13m a year Player


    First, sorry if it wasnt clear, but I wasnt trying to say DRS were "ACTUAL RUNS". I know the bloody difference. The point was Pillar is normally very good and Bruce is normally pretty bad. Last year the tables turned defensively yes. Pillar slipped some and Bruce was actually good.

    Second, everyone knows WAR is flawed and not the complete picture when comparing players.

    I do like the new stat you introduced me too though, it is indeed one I was unfamiliar with. I don't doubt your intelligence, I just think you use these sabr stats only when it benefits your argument sometimes. Like only listing the 2017 numbers and not the numbers for SDI from 2016 or 2015.

    I would say the "difference between us" though is on top of reading about baseball and analyzing stats for years, I have also played at the highest level of amateur ball in this country for over 15 years....So we may just have different views on the value of some things. I can honestly say I truly understand the effect an elite defensive CF can have to a defense, or the importamce of a solid, consistent defensive SS (or C) over the course of a season.

    To be clear, I am not a huge Kevin Pillar fan. Just that I can see how he has a higher WAR over the last 3 years than Bruce. Pillar's lack of ability to get on base or hit RHP is worrisome, and his drop off on defense could be the start of a trend as he isnt getting any faster. However, that doesn't mean that he wasn't elite defensively in 2015 and 2016.

    As good as Bruce was last year in RF, he wasn't even close the 2 years prior to that, and in 2015 he wasn't good offensively either. You can't cherry pick one season from that stat and call Bruce an above average defender. In 2016, pillar was the second highest rated AL CF w.r.t SDI at 11.4. Just behind Keirmeier's 14.3. While Jay Bruce was the second worst RF in the NL (3rd worst in baseball) at -6.6 .

    In 2015 Pillar wasn't as close to KK, but he was still the second best rated CF in baseball at 13.3. Bruce was middle of the pack compared to NL RF's with an SDI of 2.8. (Which would have actually ranked 2nd if he was in the AL...that's how bad the AL was defensively in RF that year..lol)

    Jays fans got to see just how important defense can be to wins when they replaced Reyes and Colabello/Valencia with Tulo/Goins and Revere in the second half of 2015. Those guys weren't even that good, but they were still a lot better than what they had. David Price was huge that year of course, but he only effected 1 of every 5 games. The consistent defense behind our pitching was a big reason why they were able to consistently win games and go 43-18 over the final few months and win the division. (..of course Ben Revere catching fire at the top of the order didnt hurt either 😉.)

    Bottom line....the Jays need to improve on both sides of the ball in the OF.
    Last year the OF defense was awful. Pearce was Pearce, Carrera struggled again like he did prior to 2016, Bautista's range didnt come back with his arm and Pillar was no longer elite in CF. The amount of runs 3 elite defenders could save compared to what they had last year would be staggering. Throw in the fact that they didnt get above average offense from any of those positions either and chances are those new guys would create more runs too.

    I'm very intrigued to see what they end up doing out there moving forward. I think they really have a chance to improve out there significantly.

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