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  1. #1
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    NFL Gambling Thread Week 1

    I've inconsistently posted these types of threads in the past, but this year I plan on doing it every week. This is just a thread for some of the nfl gamblers here to talk about their bets, give tips/advice, talk about winnings, etc...

    These kind of things can turn into dick measuring contests so let's try to avoid that.

    These are the spreads from my office pool, but feel free to make picks off that, or any other picks you make from other bookies and such.

    GB @ SEA -6.5
    MIN @ STL -3.5
    BUF @ CHI -6.5
    WAS @ HOU - 2.5
    TEN @ KC -4.5
    OAK @ NYJ -5.5
    JAC @ PHI -10.5
    CLE @ PIT -6.5
    CIN @ BAL -1.5
    NWO -2.5 @ ATL
    NE -4.5 @ MIA
    SF -4.5 @ DAL
    CAR @ TB -1.5
    IND @ DEN -7.5
    NYG @ DET -4.5
    SD @ ARZ -3.5

    Bold are my picks.


  2. #2
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    GB +200

    That's literally the only bet I have. Go Pack.

    Unleash the beast.

  3. #3
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    Lol! Although I really respect your football knowledge Norm, I am looking forward to good ol CCRider and his picks.

    I love that guy's logic.

    But yeah, GB +200.

  4. #4
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    Purely based on my gut. I haven't gotten to thinking about these yet...

    GB @ SEA -6.5
    MIN @ STL -3.5
    BUF @ CHI -6.5
    WAS @ HOU - 2.5
    TEN @ KC -4.5
    OAK @ NYJ -5.5
    JAC @ PHI -10.5
    CLE @ PIT -6.5
    CIN @ BAL -1.5
    NWO -2.5 @ ATL
    NE -4.5 @ MIA
    SF -4.5 @ DAL
    CAR @ TB -1.5
    IND @ DEN -7.5
    NYG @ DET -4.5
    SD @ ARZ -3.5
    I no longer care about anything here except for the Entertainment Forum, which sucks; the Music forum, which sucks; and the Magic forum, which does NOT suck.

    Love y'all!

    Except for all of y'all.

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  5. #5
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    As we know a team will play one of four roles...

    Home fav
    Home dog
    Road fav
    Road dog

    It's up to us to find out how these teams perform in whatever role they are that week. Obviously you are looking for a HF at 12-2 vs a RD at 2-12 type stuff. So it is the process of elimination.

    You also want to look at Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec. Some teams play better early, some late.

    Let's look at the Steelers laying 6.5 vs Cleveland.

    The Steelers have beaten Cleveland 10 years in a row in Pitt.

    20-7
    24-10
    14-3
    27-14

    No need to go any further than 4 years.

    Now the Browns start with a guy looking over his shoulder at QB, he is not that teams leader, on the road in a place the Browns haven't even hung close recently.

    This seems pretty easy to me, lay the 6.5.

    Now add the Steelers were 5-1 vs the division ATS in 2013. Clevelnd as a RD the last two seasons...5-10.


    You want numbers/trends that strong to pull the trigger.

    A few other things to look at are teams heading into and coming off byes. And that second game of a two game home stand and a two game road trip.

    The best spread teams the last two seasons?

    Seattle 26-11
    Indy 21-13-1
    Denver 22-13-1
    Last edited by CCRider; 09-02-2014 at 01:27 AM.

  6. #6
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    The most wanted gambling has done in the first NFL week. That no one has idea about the whole match. After that it become less, but in the last week it again increases to the top.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by KevinWallin View Post
    The most wanted gambling has done in the first NFL week. That no one has idea about the whole match. After that it become less, but in the last week it again increases to the top.
    You do play it cautious the first 3=4 weeks, only playing plays that are just too good to pass. Historically strong "spots" for one team and historically bad "spots" for the other, if you can find them.

  8. #8
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    Gb @ sea -6.5
    min @ stl -3.5
    buf @ chi -6.5
    was @ hou - 2.5
    ten @ kc -4.5
    oak @ nyj -5.5
    jac @ phi -10.5
    cle @ pit -6.5
    cin @ bal -1.5
    nwo -2.5 @ atl
    ne -4.5 @ mia
    sf -4.5 @ dal
    car @ tb -1.5
    ind @ den -7.5
    nyg @ det -4.5
    sd @ arz -3.5

  9. #9
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    Going to be betting hard on New England and New Orleans.


    You can cover a turd in sugar but in the end you'll still have a turd... Or you'll have a typical Marc Trestman press conference describing his pathetic team.

  10. #10
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    likely going to tease (7pts) ATL and Pitt

    RETURN OF THE MAC

    Rec: 78 Yards: 1,207 TD: 10

  11. #11
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    DAL +4,5 sounds good to me. Given the fact that it's only week 1, this is probably my safest bet. Pittsburgh also sounds fine.

  12. #12
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    Yea think I'm leaning toward Dallas now


  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    As we know a team will play one of four roles...

    Home fav
    Home dog
    Road fav
    Road dog

    It's up to us to find out how these teams perform in whatever role they are that week. Obviously you are looking for a HF at 12-2 vs a RD at 2-12 type stuff. So it is the process of elimination.

    You also want to look at Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec. Some teams play better early, some late.

    Let's look at the Steelers laying 6.5 vs Cleveland.

    The Steelers have beaten Cleveland 10 years in a row in Pitt.

    20-7
    24-10
    14-3
    27-14

    No need to go any further than 4 years.

    Now the Browns start with a guy looking over his shoulder at QB, he is not that teams leader, on the road in a place the Browns haven't even hung close recently.

    This seems pretty easy to me, lay the 6.5.

    Now add the Steelers were 5-1 vs the division ATS in 2013. Clevelnd as a RD the last two seasons...5-10.


    You want numbers/trends that strong to pull the trigger.

    A few other things to look at are teams heading into and coming off byes. And that second game of a two game home stand and a two game road trip.

    The best spread teams the last two seasons?

    Seattle 26-11
    Indy 21-13-1
    Denver 22-13-1
    love the post, a lot of good insight

    I've noticed in past years, theres always one game that just looks like a lay-up, where the odd makers must of just made a mistake. You usually see betting public 70% or more on the favorite side, and then game gets played and the dog covers. A trap game ........

    to me, for some reason, I look at that Patriots line and think trap game

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCkid12 View Post
    love the post, a lot of good insight

    I've noticed in past years, theres always one game that just looks like a lay-up, where the odd makers must of just made a mistake. You usually see betting public 70% or more on the favorite side, and then game gets played and the dog covers. A trap game ........

    to me, for some reason, I look at that Patriots line and think trap game
    Yea I like Miami and I'm scared of that pit line. Pit has started out garbage the past 2 yrs and I think they're overrated.


  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sadds The Gr8 View Post
    Yea I like Miami and I'm scared of that pit line. Pit has started out garbage the past 2 yrs and I think they're overrated.
    Yeah I hear what you're saying about Pitt. I will say last year they were without Bell for first few games, after he got inserted into the lineup the offense was a lot better

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