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  1. #1
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    ESPN: Predicting Top 10 PFs for 14/15 (Amir 10th)


  2. #2
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    This won't go very well for the non-stats people. Lol.

  3. #3
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    I just don't understand how Josh Smith is above LaMarcus Aldridge?

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    I don't understand, is this for fantasy? Anybody in their right mind knows Duncan and Dirk are going to have better seasons than that entire list, save maybe Blake or Davis. If your rating system tells you Josh Smith is going to be a top 5 PF, then you need to seriously re-examine your assumptions.

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    The stat doesn't say that X is better than Y, it gives you an estimate of who will have a greater impact on a team with all things being equal. Older players, especially older big men have lower WARP scores because ESPN applies an aging curve. For instance, Dirk had the highest RPM last season. The stat also accounts for regression so you get penalized for having an outlier season because it's unlikely you'll follow up with a similar performance.
    Last edited by Freakazoid; 08-25-2014 at 12:14 AM.

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    If by greater impact you mean chucking shots, I guess that explains J-Smoove's presence. Their adjusted +/- leaves a lot to be desired - and as with most defensive stats it's basically like throwing darts at the dart board.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by flea View Post
    If by greater impact you mean chucking shots, I guess that explains J-Smoove's presence. Their adjusted +/- leaves a lot to be desired - and as with most defensive stats it's basically like throwing darts at the dart board.
    Smith had one of the higher defensive RPMs. WARP is sort of "flawed" but it's not as bad as you think. It has a .91 correlation to wins and is the closest thing to an all inclusive stat. PER in comparison has a .30 correlation.
    Last edited by Freakazoid; 08-25-2014 at 12:23 AM.

  8. #8
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    Yeah I don't doubt it, he's still terrible. I watched plenty of his games when he was in Atlanta. He's undisciplined, get pushed off the block by bigger PFs, and gambles way too much. I doubt any of that has changed. The Pistons were a complete mess (25th in NBA in defensive rating) so you can throw whatever individual assessment ESPN's crappy metric throws out. He gets blocks, so that's probably why they think he's good.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by flea View Post
    Yeah I don't doubt it, he's still terrible. I watched plenty of his games when he was in Atlanta. He's undisciplined, get pushed off the block by bigger PFs, and gambles way too much. I doubt any of that has changed. The Pistons were a complete mess (25th in NBA in defensive rating) so you can throw whatever individual assessment ESPN's crappy metric throws out. He gets blocks, so that's probably why they think he's good.
    I don't disagree but he had good synergy stats when he was on the Hawks. If it was based on blocks, wouldn't the league leader in blocks be higher?

  10. #10
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    I don't know how they weight turnovers, but yeah I would think so. Ibaka is absolutely a top 5 PF IMO, and has turned himself into more of an interior force in the last 2 seasons. Maybe they're crediting the Thunder wings too much for his impact. I'm a Pels fan, and to me Davis is where Ibaka was a couple of seasons ago defensively. Athletic and big in the paint, but can get exposed when you pull him away from the paint on P&Rs or go directly at him.

  11. #11
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    ESPN: Predicting Top 10 PFs for 14/15 (Amir 10th)

    No surprise here with Amir. Durability remains his biggest issue.

  12. #12
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    4th best in East? Impressive.

  13. #13
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    ESPN is all about publicity they love to be controversial because it sells. Amir is not a top 10 PF by any stretch.

  14. #14
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    So if that is the case, the Raps have three players in their starting lineup who are top 10 players in their position. Val makes it 4?
    “It’s about winning,” Stoudemire said. “You win, you’re going to get on national TV. Simple. In Phoenix, we won — Western Conference finals three, four years, playoffs every year. We won. If you don’t win, nobody really wants to see you.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakazoid View Post
    link doesnt work. I didnt beleive it anyways so I went on ESPN and Hollinger has Amir Johnson ranked 31.. not top 10. Hollingers list for last season:

    1 Kevin Love
    2 Anthony Davis
    3 Blake Griffin
    4 Dirk Nowitzki
    5 Brandan Wright
    6 LaMarcus Aldridge
    7 Tim Duncan
    8 Kenneth Faried
    9 Paul Millsap
    10 Serge Ibaka
    11 Jordan Hill
    12 Pau Gasol
    13 David Lee
    14 Terrence Jones
    15 Mason Plumlee
    16 Ryan Anderson
    17 Amar'e Stoudemire
    18 Chris Andersen
    19 James Johnson
    20 Markieff Morris
    21 Zach Randolph
    22 Kris Humphries
    23 Greg Monroe
    24 Jon Leuer
    25 David West
    26 Nene
    27 Kyle O'Quinn
    28 Taj Gibson
    29 Ed Davis
    30 Spencer Hawes
    31 Amir Johnson

    our very own James Johnson, and even Ed Davis are ranked higher than Amir. ESPN is a **** site and have always had horrible projections. But this is based off of last season and is not a projection at all.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli.../_/position/pf
    Last edited by smith&wesson; 08-25-2014 at 03:53 PM.

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