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Thread: Then and Now

  1. #1
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    Then and Now

    This might be an useless exercise and I'm not looking to see if it was worth the trade all I'm simply looking at is, comparatively before the trades to now how good do the prospects look?

    Prior to the trades the top 10 at the end of 2011 was:

    1. Travis d'Arnaud, c
    2. Anthony Gose, of
    3. Jake Marisnick, of
    4. Daniel Norris, lhp
    5. Justin Nicolino, lhp
    6. Aaron Sanchez, rhp
    7. Noah Syndergaard, rhp
    8. Deck McGuire, rhp
    9. Drew Hutchison, rhp
    10. Asher Wojciechowski, rhp

    As of now its:

    1. Daniel Norris
    2. Aaron Sanchez
    3. Dalton Pompey
    4. Jeff Hoffman
    5. Roberto Osuna
    6. Max Pentecost
    7. Mitch Nay
    8. Franklin Barreto
    9. D.J. Davis
    10.Sean Reid-Foley

    For the current list i used MLB website and I guess you could make an argument for Labourt/Smoral over Davis but just go with the list.

    I don't know how different the talent is with these two lists. Sanchez/Syndergaard at the time were both well regard (still?) as top of the rotation arms. Sanchez has lost a bit of his shine but Norris has stepped up and has almost took Syndergaards place. Hitting wise I think Marisnick was thought to be the better prospect where as now you have Pompey, Pentecost and Barreto who profile to be at minimum average regulars (barreto/pentecost still a ways a away). But looking at 2011 list, I don't see one top tier hitting prospect. If it took 2 years/3 drafts to reload the system I think the organization did a good job of scouting because the top tier/high ceiling talent right now is pretty darn good.

  2. #2
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    I don't understand the point of this
    2013

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    Are you trying to compare pre and post Reyes trade? The problem with this list is it misses guys like Stroman (on both lists) who graduated and might end up being the best prospect of the entire group.

    Like MVP I'm not really sure what the point of this is. The second list looks more impressive given that Sanchez/Norris/Hutch are MLB ready whereas in 2011 they were much further away. We know Marisnick didn't pan out, so he looks worse now then he did before. Ditto Gose to a lesser extent - he's not as impressive now as we thought back then.

    The problem here is we can tell better who did/didn't pan out in 2011 and can't do that for this year, so the current list will look better no matter what.


    Vic Mackey: You better figure out how much you hate me. And how you're going to deal with that. 'Cause I'm not going anywhere.

    This sums up every sports interview, ever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2009mvp View Post
    I don't understand the point of this
    Comparing the prospects prior to the trades and now. This might be better suited for the prospect thread and/or maybe Im just bored. If a mod does want to move it to the prospect thread then by all means. Just thought it would interesting to see how quickly (or not so quickly) you can lose 7 of your top 10 prospects and rebuild to bring the system to where it was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Twitchy View Post
    Are you trying to compare pre and post Reyes trade? The problem with this list is it misses guys like Stroman (on both lists) who graduated and might end up being the best prospect of the entire group.

    Like MVP I'm not really sure what the point of this is. The second list looks more impressive given that Sanchez/Norris/Hutch are MLB ready whereas in 2011 they were much further away. We know Marisnick didn't pan out, so he looks worse now then he did before. Ditto Gose to a lesser extent - he's not as impressive now as we thought back then.

    The problem here is we can tell better who did/didn't pan out in 2011 and can't do that for this year, so the current list will look better no matter what.
    Right thats why i was trying to think back to what guys like Marisnick/Gose/D'arnaud were prior to 2012. I still think hitting wise, Pompey/Pentecost/Barreto all have high ceilings then those guys did. As for the top 3 pitchers in 2011 Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino and 2014 Norris/Sanchez/Hoffman?Stroman? I think the depth might be a little better even with Hutchison/Wojo at 8/9.

    And while Stroman isn't included in the list neither was Lawrie in 2011. But I would say that right now the 2014 list compares pretty good to what the 2011 list was.
    Last edited by JaysFan87; 08-20-2014 at 11:24 AM.

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    ^^ If the case is "rebuilding it", I'm not so sure I'd agree. Yan Gomes has turned into a cornerstone C, and while he's not on either list, he's a guy like Stroman who could be one of the better guys in either group. D'Arnaud/Pentecost look intriguing, but who cares how good either of them are when you whiff so painfully on Gomes. Admittedly I didn't know Gomes could play C so I didn't see the trade as badly back then, but if you're going to do a then and now...

    Same thing with Syndergaard - having Norris and others step up is great, but given how the Jays failed to compete with Dickey, this team would look a lot stronger with him & Travis.

    To me, doing a then and now for the minor leagues and ignoring that the roster for next year could be:

    Gomes/D'Arnaud, Lind, 2B, Lawrie. Escobar, Cabrera, Rasmus/Gose, Bautista, EE
    Stroman, Syndergaard, Sanchez, Hutchison and really anybody as a fifth SP with Norris on the way...

    Yeah, you could have done the MB/Reyes trade, and you'd have him as a #1 and Reyes over Escobar. And that could be the roster as of right now, if you think about it. Sanchez/Syndergaard wouldn't have been up all year so yes, the team probably would have been competing next year vs this one. I realize this isn't the point you're getting at, but that's a pretty radically different present/future.

    To your point - if you draft well you could technically rebuild the farm quickly. But yikes, just looking at that roster (and specifically Gomes vs Navarro, Syndergaard vs Dickey, a rotation that by 2015 which could include Stroman/Syndergaard/Sanchez/Hutch), it's tough to look at what could have been.

    That's why I don't like these hindsight type posts. Because looking at top prospect rankings misses the bigger picture, or in some cases, the elite specs who aren't listed like Gomes or Stroman who have absolutely dominated.

    Edit: Maybe I missed what you were getting at. I know you're focusing on prospect lists now vs then, it's just difficult to do so if you're specifically picking the Reyes trade and trying to argue the Jays have rebuilt better than before while ignoring what the MLB roster could have been.
    Last edited by Twitchy; 08-20-2014 at 11:37 AM.


    Vic Mackey: You better figure out how much you hate me. And how you're going to deal with that. 'Cause I'm not going anywhere.

    This sums up every sports interview, ever.

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    Twitchy, i get what your saying. I didn't want to focus on the trade. Yes the list would have been significantly better with Sydergaard and D'arnaud. There is no doubt about that at all. Also arbitrarily picking a date (in this case near the end of the year) ignores players like Lawrie/Stroman/Gomes. I was simply looking at how quickly the system has regenerated alot of the loses it took in the winter of 2011. Its hard to look and compare when you can't really go back in time and see how we viewed alot of those prospects (I guess you could just wait for BA/BP to update their lists). Again wasn't looking to see if the trade was worth it just looking at how the system has rebound from the losses it took. I would say it has rebound to almost the point it was prior to the trades.

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    Reyes at least gave the Jays a stable #1 hitter they were lacking since Shannon Stewart.

    The Dickey trade, long-term, yeah the Jays will likely lose that one. d"arnaud will be a very good catcher but I would like to see how Pentecost pans out -- if he can be somewhat of a Jon Lucroy I'll take it. Syndergaard will be at least a mid rotation, if not a #2 behind Harvey and control for six years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysFan87 View Post
    Twitchy, i get what your saying. I didn't want to focus on the trade. Yes the list would have been significantly better with Sydergaard and D'arnaud. There is no doubt about that at all. Also arbitrarily picking a date (in this case near the end of the year) ignores players like Lawrie/Stroman/Gomes. I was simply looking at how quickly the system has regenerated alot of the loses it took in the winter of 2011. Its hard to look and compare when you can't really go back in time and see how we viewed alot of those prospects (I guess you could just wait for BA/BP to update their lists). Again wasn't looking to see if the trade was worth it just looking at how the system has rebound from the losses it took. I would say it has rebound to almost the point it was prior to the trades.
    In that case I'll agree - AA's greatest strength is clearly the minor league system, as the 2010/2012 drafts have looked pretty stellar so far. Usually it takes 4-5 years to see the fruits of your first couple drafts, and early indications are very, very positive about the number of high ceiling blue chippers. So yes, they did rebuild the system fairly well, and the lower levels have a bunch of high ceiling guys to be excited about as well.


    Vic Mackey: You better figure out how much you hate me. And how you're going to deal with that. 'Cause I'm not going anywhere.

    This sums up every sports interview, ever.

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    Jays have a good lower farm system no doubt, but a ton of other teams do too -- we just don't live in STL or Minnesota or Boston and hear about it often-- Jays with Pompey and Norris have zoomed up but some other teams out there have some pretty deadly talent coming up too..

    Even a team like the Dodgers with how stacked they are have some good names coming up soon... so it's all relative. AA does a good job with drafting overall, but we can't discount other teams -- Boston has more top tier prospects than the Jays do and spend money on international players just like the Jays -- the Cubs went nuts on international players and ready to reap the rewards. Yanks are grabbing top int'l talent too -- so... let's see how it goes.
    Last edited by Sanyo; 08-20-2014 at 12:18 PM.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysFan87 View Post
    Twitchy, i get what your saying. I didn't want to focus on the trade. Yes the list would have been significantly better with Sydergaard and D'arnaud. There is no doubt about that at all. Also arbitrarily picking a date (in this case near the end of the year) ignores players like Lawrie/Stroman/Gomes. I was simply looking at how quickly the system has regenerated alot of the loses it took in the winter of 2011. Its hard to look and compare when you can't really go back in time and see how we viewed alot of those prospects (I guess you could just wait for BA/BP to update their lists). Again wasn't looking to see if the trade was worth it just looking at how the system has rebound from the losses it took. I would say it has rebound to almost the point it was prior to the trades.
    I just don't understand what one has to do with the other. Yeah they've done great work in the draft, what's that got to do with the trades?
    2013

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    Quote Originally Posted by 2009mvp View Post
    I just don't understand what one has to do with the other. Yeah they've done great work in the draft, what's that got to do with the trades?
    Nothing about the trades. I was more commenting on that it took them 2 years/3 drafts to restock a draft system that was top 5 before unloading guys, to in the 20's after, to argueable in the top 10 after this year, one would guess. Many teams take much longer or dont ever get there. Just thought it would be a "good" thing to talk about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysFan87 View Post
    Right thats why i was trying to think back to what guys like Marisnick/Gose/D'arnaud were prior to 2012. I still think hitting wise, Pompey/Pentecost/Barreto all have high ceilings then those guys did. As for the top 3 pitchers in 2011 Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino and 2014 Norris/Sanchez/Hoffman?Stroman? I think the depth might be a little better even with Hutchison/Wojo at 8/9.

    And while Stroman isn't included in the list neither was Lawrie in 2011. But I would say that right now the 2014 list compares pretty good to what the 2011 list was.
    The problem with what your doing here is that 'ceiling' isn't exactly science. We can't tap into some database to see a humans ceiling rating.
    Quote Originally Posted by nycericanguy View Post
    well unfortunately it looks like you were right about Bargs...

    but hopefully we can use his expiring, if not at least we unloaded Novak's deal...

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    Quote Originally Posted by JaysFan87 View Post
    This might be an useless exercise and I'm not looking to see if it was worth the trade all I'm simply looking at is, comparatively before the trades to now how good do the prospects look?

    Prior to the trades the top 10 at the end of 2011 was:

    1. Travis d'Arnaud, c
    2. Anthony Gose, of
    3. Jake Marisnick, of
    4. Daniel Norris, lhp
    5. Justin Nicolino, lhp
    6. Aaron Sanchez, rhp
    7. Noah Syndergaard, rhp
    8. Deck McGuire, rhp
    9. Drew Hutchison, rhp
    10. Asher Wojciechowski, rhp

    As of now its:

    1. Daniel Norris
    2. Aaron Sanchez
    3. Dalton Pompey
    4. Jeff Hoffman
    5. Roberto Osuna
    6. Max Pentecost
    7. Mitch Nay
    8. Franklin Barreto
    9. D.J. Davis
    10.Sean Reid-Foley

    For the current list i used MLB website and I guess you could make an argument for Labourt/Smoral over Davis but just go with the list.

    I don't know how different the talent is with these two lists. Sanchez/Syndergaard at the time were both well regard (still?) as top of the rotation arms. Sanchez has lost a bit of his shine but Norris has stepped up and has almost took Syndergaards place. Hitting wise I think Marisnick was thought to be the better prospect where as now you have Pompey, Pentecost and Barreto who profile to be at minimum average regulars (barreto/pentecost still a ways a away). But looking at 2011 list, I don't see one top tier hitting prospect. If it took 2 years/3 drafts to reload the system I think the organization did a good job of scouting because the top tier/high ceiling talent right now is pretty darn good.
    The Dirty has lost some shine? Say what? According to who?

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    Quote Originally Posted by town123 View Post

    The Dirty has lost some shine? Say what? According to who?
    Many. Its to do with his control and his mechanics.

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