Dave, Turnerís CH against lefties looks troubling this year. I agree that he needs to have a strong CH to be successful as a starting pitcher. Against Turner this year, LH hitters have a .300 ISO off of his CH in 94 pitches in 2014 and a .136 ISO off of his CH in 90 pitches in 2013. This looks bad. I, however, am curious on whether or not .ISO off of this pitch is reflective of the pitchís effectiveness (i.e., is his CH as bad as it appears to be from surface level stats?)
We know, thanks to Eno and Jeff, that 40% of pitchers from 2011-2013 have swinging strike rates of less than 11.9%. This year, Turnerís CH has produced a swinging strike rate of 11.3%. And in addition, his CH has produced 58.3% grounders, which is 25% higher than the average pitcher who throws a CH. Based on this criteria, his CH isnít as bad as you make it out to be when claiming he needs a ďdramatic improvement.Ē
Back to the .300 ISO from LH hitters when throwing a CHÖ
The reason that the .ISO is so high off of this pitch is not because of a lack of stuff, but because of a few grooved pitches. Most of the time, Turner has shown the ability to locate, which has resulted in a great GB% and a respectable swstrike%. This is the resulting .ISO illustrated by his zone profile.
The XBH on the lower right portion of the plate was a result of a GB. Not surprisingly, ISO is highest right down the middle.
Iím not convinced his CH is bad. Iím not convinced he needs to improve the pitch dramatically. He has four pitches that should result in positive results (i.e., 4seam, sinker, change, slider).