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  1. #1
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    Advanced Stats Education Thread

    Since advanced stats are going to become a huge part in all aspects of hockey soon enough, I figure it's a good idea that us Leaf fans get ahead of the game and start figuring this stuff out (Especially for you aspiring GM's out there ). I myself am new to most of it so i'm just going to post some general terms for now that I found on extraskater.com and anybody that wants to chime in or knows a lot about them already can feel free to add to what we have here. I'm going to study them for a few weeks and then maybe do a player by player breakdown at the start of september and see what they say. I've done some preliminary research on Phaneuf and the guy is actually a beast from the competition stat's I've been looking at. Only guy with a tougher workload is Johnathan Toews, and the next few guys are forwards as well. Anywho here are the terms:

    General concepts:

    Close: Close refers to game situations where the score is tied in any period or within one goal in the first or second periods. This does a pretty good job of removing score effects, which are the result of a team going into a defensive shell or going all-out to score a goal. Close numbers have proven to be a better predictor of future results in some instances than numbers from all game situations.

    Corsi: Corsi is the number of shot attempts by a team or player. In other words, it's the sum of a team or players's goals, shots on net, shots that miss the net, and shots that are blocked. It's used as a proxy for puck possession: since we can't (yet) measure how long a player or team has possession of the puck, we use corsi as an approximation. We're interested in puck possession because you can't score if you don't have the puck (and the team that has puck more often usually wins). For players, we usually measure "on-ice" corsi, or all of their team's shot attempts while they're on the ice.

    Fenwick: Fenwick is the number of unblocked shot attempts by a team or player. It's the same as corsi, but excludes shots that are blocked. It's used because over many games it's a slightly better proxy for possession than corsi. It's not used exclusively instead of corsi mainly because over smaller sample sizes, the larger corsi number is more accurate in reflecting puck possession.

    Relative: For players, relative stats are how a player's stats compare to his team's stats when he is not on the ice. For example, if a player has a 52.1% CF% and his team has a 49.6% CF% when he is not on the ice, his relative CF% (CF% rel) is +2.5%. For percentage stats, like CF% and ZS%, relative stats are stated in percentage points (differences in percentages).
    For a more general overview of advanced hockey statistics, check out SB Nation's introduction to the topic.

    Team Stats

    CA Corsi against
    CD Corsi differential: corsi for - corsi against
    CF Corsi for
    CF% Corsi for percentage
    FA Fenwick against
    FD Fenwick differential: fenwick for - fenwick against
    FF Fenwick for
    FF% Fenwick for percentage
    GA Goals against
    GD Goals differential: goals for - goals against
    GF Goals for
    GF% Goals for percentage
    PDO Shooting percentage + save percentage
    S-A Score-adjusted fenwick for percentage: FF% relative to league average at different score situations
    SA Shots against
    SD Shots on goal differential: shots for - shots against
    SF Shots for
    SF% Shots for percentage
    Sh% Shooting percentage
    Sv% Save percentage
    TMSh% On-ice teammates' shooting percentage
    TOI Time on ice, minutes

    Player Standard Stats

    A Assists
    A1 Primary (first) assists
    A2 Secondary assists
    BS Blocked shots for
    CF Corsi for: shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots
    FF Fenwick for: shots on goal + missed shots
    FO% Faceoff win percentage
    FOL Faceoff losses
    FOW Faceoff wins
    G Goals
    GP Games played
    Gv Giveaways
    HitA Hits against
    HitD Hit differential: hits for - hits against
    HitF Hits for
    MS Missed shots
    P Points
    P1 Primary points: goals + primary assists
    PSR Pass/shot ratio: setup passes / corsi for. Higher number = higher pass tendency.
    PenD Penalty differential: penalties drawn - penalties taken
    PenDr Penalties drawn
    PenT Penalties taken
    S Shots on goal
    SP Setup passes: estimate of passes that directly result in a shot attempt
    ShB Shots against blocked
    TOI/60 Time on ice, minutes, per 60 minutes of team play
    Tk Takeaways

    Player Possession Stats

    CA Corsi against
    CD Corsi differential: corsi for - corsi against
    CF Corsi for
    CF% Corsi for percentage
    CF% rel Corsi for percentage relative to team's CF% with player not on ice
    FA Fenwick against
    FD Fenwick differential: fenwick for - fenwick against
    FF Fenwick for
    FF% Fenwick for percentage
    FF% rel Fenwick for percentage relative to team's FF% with player not on ice
    GA Goals against
    GD Goals differential: goals for - goals against
    GF Goals for
    GF% Goals for percentage
    GF% rel Goals for percentage relative to team's GF% with player not on ice
    PDO Shooting percentage + save percentage
    PDO rel PDO (Sh% + Sv%) relative to team's PDO with player not on ice
    S-A Score-adjusted fenwick for percentage: FF% relative to league average at different score situations
    SA Shots against
    SD Shots on goal differential: shots for - shots against
    SF Shots for
    SF% Shots for percentage
    SF% rel Shots for percentage relative to team's SF% with player not on ice
    Sh% Shooting percentage
    Sh% rel Shooting percentage relative to team's Sh% with player not on ice
    Sv% Save percentage
    Sv% rel Save percentage relative to team's Sv% with player not on ice
    TMSh% On-ice teammates' shooting percentage
    TOI Time on ice, minutes

    Player On-Ice Event Stats

    AShr Assist share: percentage of on-ice teammates' goals assisted by player
    CShr Corsi share: percentage of on-ice corsi (S + MS + BS) player took
    FShr Fenwick share: percentage of on-ice fenwick (S + MS) player took
    GShr Goal share: percentage of on-ice goals for scored by player
    IceDr Icings drawn: on-ice icings by opposing team
    IceDr% Icing drawn percentage
    IceT Icings taken: on-ice icings by player's team
    PShr Point share: percentage of on-ice goals player had a point on
    SADist Average distance of on-ice shot attempts (S + MS) against
    SFDist Average distance of on-ice shot attempts (S + MS) for
    SShr Shot share: percentage of on-ice shots player took

    Player Deployment Stats

    DZS% Defensive zone start percentage: percentage of player's zone starts coming in DZ
    DZShr Defensive zone start share: percentage of team's DZ starts player was on ice for
    DZSt Defensive zone starts
    EVTOI Even strength time on ice, minutes
    EVTOI% Percentage of team's even strength ice time that player is on ice for
    NZS% Neutral zone start percentage: percentage of player's zone starts coming in NZ
    NZShr Neutral zone start share: percentage of team's NZ starts player was on ice for
    NZSt Neutral zone starts
    OZS% Offensive zone start percentage: percentage of player's zone starts coming in OZ
    OZShr Offensive zone start share: percentage of team's OZ starts player was on ice for
    OZSt Offensive zone starts
    PPTOI Power play time on ice, minutes
    PPTOI% Percentage of team's power play ice time that player is on ice for
    SHTOI Shorthanded time on ice, minutes
    SHTOI% Percentage of team's shorthanded ice time that player is on ice for
    TOI Time on ice, minutes
    TOI%: Percentage of team's total ice time that player is on ice for
    ZS Zone starts: faceoffs on ice for
    ZS% Zone start percentage: OZ starts / (OZ starts + DZ starts)
    ZS% rel ZS% relative to team's ZS% with player not on ice

    Player Quality of Competition

    QoC TOI%: Quality of competition, measured by TOI%
    QoC TOI% D: Quality of competition of defencemen, measured by TOI%
    QoC TOI% D rel: Quality of competition of defencemen relative to team's QoC% D with player not on ice
    QoC TOI% F: Quality of competition of forwards, measured by TOI%
    QoC TOI% F rel: Quality of competition of forwards relative to team's QoC% F with player not on ice
    QoC TOI% rel: Quality of competition relative to team's QoC% with player not on ice

    Player Quality of Teammates

    Def 1: #1 defenceman by ice time with player
    Def 2: #2 defenceman by ice time with player
    Fwd 1: #1 forward by ice time with player
    Fwd 2: #2 forward by ice time with player
    Fwd 3: #3 forward by ice time with player
    QoT TOI%: Quality of teammates, measured by TOI%
    QoT TOI% D: Quality of teammates of defencemen, measured by TOI%
    QoT TOI% D rel: Quality of teammates of defencemen relative to team's QoT% D with player not on ice
    QoT TOI% F: Quality of teammates of forwards, measured by TOI%
    QoT TOI% F rel: Quality of teammates of forwards relative to team's QoT% F with player not on ice
    QoT TOI% rel: Quality of teammates relative to team's QoT% with player not on ice
    TOI%: Percentage of player's ice time that teammate was on the ice for

    Player Shooting Stats

    Blk% Block percentage: percentage of shots that are blocked
    CSh% Corsi shooting percentage: Sh% including missed and blocked shots
    FSh% Fenwick shooting percentage: Sh% including missed shots
    Miss%: Miss percentage: percentage of shots that miss the net
    ON%: On net percentage: percentage of shots that hit the net
    SDist: Average shot distance
    Sh%: Shooting percentage
    SlpG: Slap shot goals
    SlpS: Slap shots
    SlpSh%: Shooting percentage on slap shots
    SnpG: Snap shot goals
    SnpS: Snap shots
    SnpSh%: Shooting percentage on snap shots
    WrtG: Wrist shot goals
    WrtS: Wrist shots
    WrtSh%: Shooting percentage on wrist shots
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  2. #2
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    As for the calculations I'll figure out a good way to post the more important ones later on, and as far as I know there is no statistic yet that determines an overall value for a player like WAR does in baseball.
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  3. #3
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    Really awesome thread. Great work.

    For me. I don't really know much about advanced stats but i generally use goals for/goals against per 60 min (5on5) only to get good look at the players.

    But i use a blend of the two. For example: Gardiner had similar ga/60 and g/60 as Phaneuf (and similar 5on5 time) but with the knowledge we have with the "eye test" we know which one gets the tougher assignments 5on5.

    I think ad.stats are going to creep into the game more and more. I heard that a lot of teams already use them they just don't advertise it so as to maybe keep that competitive advantage. The Oilers just hired a stats guru as well. I look forward to learning more about CORSI and FENWICK

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by OptiMized View Post
    Really awesome thread. Great work.

    For me. I don't really know much about advanced stats but i generally use goals for/goals against per 60 min (5on5) only to get good look at the players.

    But i use a blend of the two. For example: Gardiner had similar ga/60 and g/60 as Phaneuf (and similar 5on5 time) but with the knowledge we have with the "eye test" we know which one gets the tougher assignments 5on5.

    I think ad.stats are going to creep into the game more and more. I heard that a lot of teams already use them they just don't advertise it so as to maybe keep that competitive advantage. The Oilers just hired a stats guru as well. I look forward to learning more about CORSI and FENWICK
    Basically it seems like you have to know what every stat means in order to get an accurate read on a player, a lot of work would have to go into free agency that's for sure lol. As for the bold, Phaneuf and Gunnersson were actually the two defensemen with the toughest opponents in the NHL last year according to advanced stats and Gardiner and Rielly were pretty sheltered. Franson not so much.

    Phaneuf:
    QoC TOI%: 30.1% Quality of competition overall
    QoC TOI% F: 27.5% Quality of Forwards played against
    QoC TOI% D: 33.9 % Quality of Defense played against

    Gardiner:
    QoC TOI%: 27.9% Quality of competition overall
    QoC TOI% F: 24.5% Quality of Forwards played against
    QoC TOI% D: 32.9 % Quality of Defense played against

    So basically when we compare the stats, Dion Phaneuf faced 2.1% harder competition throughout the game in terms of a 5 man unit. The forwards he faced were 3.0% better which is actually a massive number in terms of these statistics, and 1.0% better defense. So we can take a few things from this. It is harder for Dion to score, MUCH harder for him to defend, and considering his team still scored more when he was on the ice than not, playing his off-side, I'd say he's pretty damn solid.
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  5. #5
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    Advanced Stats Education Thread

    I love advanced stats!
    Last edited by JaysLeafs98; 08-14-2014 at 05:45 AM.

  6. #6
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    Based on what I've been reading about Corsi, it seems to be a pretty useless, but nice attempt at gauging possession. Fenwick is more reliable (but still not that solid IMO) as it takes away special teams and evens the playing field. It also takes into account that blocked shots is an actual skill as opposed to random chance. Under Corsi, a PP specialist would have a huge advantage over a PK specialist all day in night because the stat is based on shot attempts.
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  7. #7
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    I've been reading up on some of these advanced stats this summer, especially after we hired Doobie boy there. I find it tough to get deep into. I mean you put a number on something and all alot of the time the number just reinforces what you see with your own eyes. It's going to take a while for it to get where it is in baseball. Baseball is more of an individual game inside of a team game as well. But hockey's on it way.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingerSox View Post
    I've been reading up on some of these advanced stats this summer, especially after we hired Doobie boy there. I find it tough to get deep into. I mean you put a number on something and all alot of the time the number just reinforces what you see with your own eyes. It's going to take a while for it to get where it is in baseball. Baseball is more of an individual game inside of a team game as well. But hockey's on it way.
    I agree, it seems like you have to take every stat as a package to get an accurate read on a player but I don't think peoples views would change that much after seeing what they say. Maybe in free agency if you don't know much about the guy you can look at them, but for players on your own team any smart hockey person would have an idea of how you play.
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingerSox View Post
    I've been reading up on some of these advanced stats this summer, especially after we hired Doobie boy there. I find it tough to get deep into. I mean you put a number on something and all alot of the time the number just reinforces what you see with your own eyes. It's going to take a while for it to get where it is in baseball. Baseball is more of an individual game inside of a team game as well. But hockey's on it way.
    Pretty much my take on it too. I know my sabermetrics in baseball through and through but it's a much easier game to break down. Hockey is fast-paced and there's much less to go on. Advanced stats in hockey are still in it's infancy so it's going to take another 5-10 years before we really start seeing better and more useful stats. Right now there's a lot of silly stats, which is exactly what baseball went through. Some guy sits there and tries to figure out a formula. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

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    memorized all of it.

    Things will always work out in the end, but if you want them to turn out a certain way... You need to make it happen.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halladay View Post
    Pretty much my take on it too. I know my sabermetrics in baseball through and through but it's a much easier game to break down. Hockey is fast-paced and there's much less to go on. Advanced stats in hockey are still in it's infancy so it's going to take another 5-10 years before we really start seeing better and more useful stats. Right now there's a lot of silly stats, which is exactly what baseball went through. Some guy sits there and tries to figure out a formula. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
    Apparently the Blackhawks use an advanced stats system that is unique to them and the rest of the league has yet to figure it out. I can see the competitive advantage in keeping it under wraps but when they eventually get out it'll be interesting to see what they use. Something similar to Fenwick probably but it seems to be working for them. http://www.suntimes.com/27179980-419...l#.U_Kwc_ldX_E
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChongInc. View Post
    memorized all of it.
    Get this man an interview with the Leafs.

    Quote Originally Posted by JaysLeafs98 View Post
    Apparently the Blackhawks use an advanced stats system that is unique to them and the rest of the league has yet to figure it out. I can see the competitive advantage in keeping it under wraps but when they eventually get out it'll be interesting to see what they use. Something similar to Fenwick probably but it seems to be working for them. http://www.suntimes.com/27179980-419...l#.U_Kwc_ldX_E

    Yup i read that too. They place specific player values based on a mashup of all the ad.stats is one theory people have. I have no issue with them keeping it a secret. If the Leafs were smart they would out-pay all their staff and try and steal some of their higher ups.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by OptiMized View Post
    Get this man an interview with the Leafs.




    Yup i read that too. They place specific player values based on a mashup of all the ad.stats is one theory people have. I have no issue with them keeping it a secret. If the Leafs were smart they would out-pay all their staff and try and steal some of their higher ups.
    I wish they were that smart. But it seems like I was looking in the right spot as the Leafs are going to hire the guy that started extraskater, which I used for this thread lol. Just gotta figure out what everything means now. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-pu...181332725.html
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

  14. #14
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    Leafs also just hired the guy that used to work for the NHLs contract and salary cap division. I assume he is the new cap guru. He will be an assistant GM

  15. #15
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    Guru's.. Guru's everywhere...
    If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.

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