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  1. #2356
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    Quote Originally Posted by North Yorker View Post
    BPs list is a joke
    its really not its considered the most conservative because of its reliance on war and the actual level of play attained by prospects. what hurts Vlad Guerrero is that no one expects him to end up a 3rd baseman by the time he reaches the big leagues most believe he'll be on LF or 1b by that time and since the expectations for those positions are higher, his grade suffers.

    in actuallity others over graded guerrero since he's a long way from the majors. Kevin Goldstein, who now is Director of Pro Scouting, Houston Astros, once ran the Baseball Prospectus grading system and according to him most MLB teams use BP list as the primary tool along with their own scouts

    in the end it depends on what you want to believe in of course but most teams value consistent year to year evaluations and a methodology that uses tools that are respected. As I said I trust John Sickels above all because he sees all the players he rates personally and he is extremely consistent, but you cant argue with the fact that most big league teams rely on BP

    theres a reason why Shapiro and Atkins wanted thise 1st round picks for EE and Bautista, and took on Liriano for Ramirez and Mcguire its because the farm System isnt very good. its on the way up yes, but its still bottom 3rd presently

  2. #2357
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    its really not its considered the most conservative because of its reliance on war and the actual level of play attained by prospects. what hurts Vlad Guerrero is that no one expects him to end up a 3rd baseman by the time he reaches the big leagues most believe he'll be on LF or 1b by that time and since the expectations for those positions are higher, his grade suffers.

    in actuallity others over graded guerrero since he's a long way from the majors. Kevin Goldstein, who now is Director of Pro Scouting, Houston Astros, once ran the Baseball Prospectus grading system and according to him most MLB teams use BP list as the primary tool along with their own scouts

    in the end it depends on what you want to believe in of course but most teams value consistent year to year evaluations and a methodology that uses tools that are respected. As I said I trust John Sickels above all because he sees all the players he rates personally and he is extremely consistent, but you cant argue with the fact that most big league teams rely on BP

    theres a reason why Shapiro and Atkins wanted thise 1st round picks for EE and Bautista, and took on Liriano for Ramirez and Mcguire its because the farm System isnt very good. its on the way up yes, but its still bottom 3rd presently
    I'm still predicting top 3rd by the end of the season. I don't see many of the prospects graduating this year, and expect many of them to be knocking on the door at AA and AAA.

  3. #2358
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    in actuallity others over graded guerrero since he's a long way from the majors. Kevin Goldstein, who now is Director of Pro Scouting, Houston Astros, once ran the Baseball Prospectus grading system and according to him most MLB teams use BP list as the primary tool along with their own scouts

    in the end it depends on what you want to believe in of course but most teams value consistent year to year evaluations and a methodology that uses tools that are respected. As I said I trust John Sickels above all because he sees all the players he rates personally and he is extremely consistent, but you cant argue with the fact that most big league teams rely on BP
    Not really a fact, im not sure how you can believe that easily if he ever said that. its not surprising he'll say that considering BPs his former employer.

  4. #2359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toxeryll View Post
    Not really a fact, im not sure how you can believe that easily if he ever said that. its not surprising he'll say that considering BPs his former employer.
    he said it because he's aware of how many former Baseball Prospectus alumnai are currently working for big league teams. at the time he said it there were 15 but im sure there are more now....I dont see whats so hard to believe about it. Guys like Callis and Mayo who do the MLB top 100 are just writers as are the people who write for Baseball America, at least Keith Law worked in the Jays front office.

    the fact that every year baseball Prospectus in effect "graduates" employees into major league Jobs in front offices around the sport to me is very compelling evidence of their standing, you may not see it as fact, but its better than guys who see themselves as merely writers
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 02-18-2017 at 08:19 PM.

  5. #2360
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    minor league ball came out with their top 100


    15. Toronto Blue Jays

    "The Jays' highest-ranked prospect definitely has pedigree going for him. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (No. 34) turned 17 last week after batting .271/,359/.449 with eight homers, three triples, 12 doubles and 15 steals in 62 games in the Rookie-level Appalachian League in 2016. That should be just the beginning for the third baseman, who could grow into an above-average hitter with plus power at higher levels. Outfielder Anthony Alford (No. 70) was limited to 92 Florida State League games due to a concussion and a knee injury but totaled 28 extra-base hits and 18 steals, suggesting Toronto is getting the player it hoped he'd become. With shortstop Richard Urena (94), the Blue Jays have a third player in MILB.com's top-100 rankings."


    this is my personal favorite top 100 listing mostly because it is the most "scouting heavy" listing. John Sickels the primary guy behind their ratings is an old school scout who doesnt really use sabremetrics much, he acknowledges that WAR and advanced stats have value, but he prefers giving players the eye test and grading on the scouts 80 point scale. He spends the majority of the year personally viewing minor leaguers around the country and has an extensive set of contacts with scouts from all 30 big league teams

    he is not the only scout who contribute to their ranking however for the top 100.


    John Sickels personal top 20 jays prospects follows

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/...pects-for-2017

    1) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B, Grade B+: Age 17, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2015 for $3,900,000, you may have heard of his father; hit .271/.359/.449 with eight homers, 33 walks, 35 strikeouts, 15 steals in 236 at-bats against older competition in Appalachian League; normally I make a conscious effort to avoid excess hype for players at the lowest levels but there are exceptions and Guerrero is one; features power, strike zone judgment, and a more polished approach than expected; we should have every confidence in the bat; main question is defense, which was not hopeless at third base but still needs a lot of work and may not pan out in the long run if he loses too much mobility with maturity; caveat: I was a huge fan of his father and it is possible I like Jr. so much because I liked his dad. ETA 2020.

    2) Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Grade B+: Age 21, second round pick in 2014 from high school in Florida; posted 2.81 ERA with 130/38 K/BB in 115 innings between Low-A and High-A, just 78 hits; statistics are strong across the board and the scouting reports back them up, with 92-96 MPH fastball, two quality breaking pitches, and a below average but improvable change-up; command is usually sharp; you can make a case for an A- but his season ended early with a sore elbow and he has a history of nagging injuries, which holds his rating back just a bit. ETA 2019.

    3) Richard Urena, SS, Grade B+: Age 20, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2012; hit .295/.335/.434 between High-A and Double-A with 29 walks, 83 strikeouts in 518 at-bats; on the right day looks like a consistent .300 hitter with gap power; approach is aggressive and without a bit more patience his OBP will be very dependent on his batting average, which is one thing if you can hit .300 at every level and quite another if you drop to .260; young enough to add more power; could end up something like Tony Fernandez as a hitter; strong arm and above-average range stand out but still gets sloppy on routine plays, typical for his age; I think heíll need two years in the high minors to work out the kinks but that still gets him to the Show at age 22. ETA late 2018.

    4) Lourdes Gurriel, Jr, INF-OF, Grade B: Age 23, Cuban, signed for $22,000,000 in November; to be perfectly honest this is a placeholder grade and ranking until we get to see how he looks in spring training; despite being one of the more prominent Cuban talents reports are mixed; best tools appear to be arm strength, power potential, and defensive versatility, but opinions vary on how it will all pan out, especially with the bat; Crawfish Boxes had this report back in August. ETA unknown, check back in the spring.


    5) Anthony Alford, OF, Grade B: Age 22, third round pick in 2012, hit .236/.344/.378 with nine homers, 18 steals, 53 walks, 117 strikeouts in 339 at-bats in High-A; season hampered by significant injuries including a concussion and a dislocated knee cap; got 75 at-bats in Arizona Fall League and hit .253/.349/.440; big tools with 70-grade speed and significant physical strength, although swing doesnít translate the power to game action consistently; will draw walks but can be prone to strikeouts; exciting player to watch on the field; more defensive value than Tellez and a broader athletic base to work with but also a higher risk of failure. ETA 2019.

    6) Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Grade B: Age 21, 30th round pick in 2013; hit .297/.387/.530 with 23 homers, 63 walks, 92 strikeouts in 438 at-bats in Double-A; you will likely find him behind Anthony Alford on every other Blue Jays prospect list (including this one) but Tellez is actually younger and closer to the majors and Iím more confident in his bat; power, plate discipline, and under-rated pure hitting ability; lacks range at first but not a butcher and catches what he gets to, though may be a DH long-term; projects as .270-hitter with above-average OBP and SLG, could be consistent run producer. ETA 2018.

    7) Jon Harris, RHP, Grade B-/B: Age 23, first round pick in 2015 from Missouri State; posted 2.71 ERA with 99/38 K/BB in 130 innings between Low-A and High-A, 111 hits; command slipped some after promotion (26/14 K/BB in 45 innings); fastball 90-94 with normally good location; best secondary pitch is strong curveball, mixed in with slider and change-up; nothing spectacular but nothing bad, either; if command holds at higher levels he can be a fine inning-eater. ETA late 2018.

    8) T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Grade B-: Age 21, first round pick in 2016 from University of Pittsburgh; posted 4.50 ERA in 34 innings between GCL, NY-P, and Low-A with 38/7 K/BB and 31 hits; 6-7 right-hander with low-90s fastball that has been clocked as high as 96-97 at his best; very good curveball, with adequate slider and change-up; usually throws strikes; like Harris, he should be a fine inning-eating starter assuming his command holds as he moves up. ERA 2019.

    9) Conner Greene, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 21, seventh round pick in 2013, posted 3.51 ERA with 99/71 K/BB in 146 innings between High-A and Double-A, 99/71 K/BB; throws harder more consistently than Harris or Zeuch and has a good change-up but slider is quite erratic and he doesnít miss as many bats as he should; without a better third pitch or sharper command of everything he may wind up in the bullpen; higher physical ceiling than Harris or Zeuch but less likely to reach it; ETA 2019.

    10) Justin Maese, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 20, third round pick in 2015 from high school in Texas; posted 2.94 ERA with 64/15 K/BB in 83 innings between Northwest League and Low-A, 79 hits; nice low-90s fastball with good action low in zone and he throws strikes with it; reports on secondary stuff vary wildly, some say he has a good slider and solid change-up but others report he relies entirely on his fastball; low strikeout rate is notable caution flag but he gives up few walks and given his youth thereís plenty of time for the secondaries to round out; ETA 2020.

    11) Bo Bichette, SS, Grade B-/C+: Age 18, second round pick in 2016, son of Dante Bichette; hit .427/.451/.732 with six walks, 17 strikeouts in 82 at-bats in rookie ball; combination of gaudy numbers with MLB bloodlines will get you noticed but be wary of the sample size; good tools with plus power, plus arm strength, but unconventional hitting mechanics lead to projection questions at higher levels; probably a third baseman long-term, increasing the pressure to hit; if he keeps up the hot hitting in full-season ball his ranking will rise quickly. ETA 2020.

    12) Angel Perdomo, LHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 22, signed out of Dominican way back in 2011; development was slow but took step forward in í16 with 3.19 ERA, 156/54 K/BB in 127 innings in Low-A, 101 hits; big guy at 6-6, fastball in low-90s with higher peaks; slider and change-up very inconsistent as is his command but K/IP and H/IP rates point to his potential; big lefties who throw hard get plenty of time; may wind up in pen ultimately. ETA 2019.

    13) J.B. Woodman, OF, Grade C+: Age 22, second round pick in 2016 from University of Mississippi; hit .297/.391/.445 between NWL and Low-A with 20 doubles, four homers, 34 walks, 85 strikeouts in 229 at-bats; lefty hitter with solid tools including 50 or 55 speed, power, and arm strength; good surface numbers in pro debut but strikeout rate was extremely high and contact issues must be addressed going forward; has potential to be a regular outfielder but may also end up as a tweener if skills develop unevenly. ETA 2019.

    14) Max Pentecost, C, Grade C+: Age 23, first round pick in 2014 out of Kennesaw State; hit .302/.361/.486 with 10 homers, 24 walks, 68 strikeouts in 288 at-bats between Low-A and High-A; heís always been able to hit for power and average and I doubt that changes, but at what position?...shoulder injuries have kept him off the field for two years and he was a pure DH in í16; monitor reports on his catching progress in spring training. ETA late 2018.

    15) Joshua Palacios, OF, Grade C+: Age 21, fourth round pick in 2016 out of Auburn, nephew of former MLB player Rey Palacios; hit .330/.397/.426 in pro debut in 197 at-bats between GCL, NY-P and Low-A and this was coming off a late spring wrist injury, 18 walks, 26 strikeouts, eight steals; lefty hitter with 55-grade speed and good performance record; given his bloodlines and performance Iím surprised he doesnít receive more attention, though he may wind up a tweener without more power development. ETA 2019.

    16) Reese McGuire, C, Grade C+: Age 21, first round pick by the Pirates in 2013, acquired at trade deadline; hit .254/.335/.332 with 36 walks, 34 strikeouts in 319 at-bats in Double-A; controls zone well but lack of power makes him a weak offensive performer with little sign that will change anytime soon; renowned for defensive ability; glove will get him to the majors but without more hitting he profiles as a glove-only reserve; he is still quite young at only 21 so it may yet happen but probably not until everyone has given up. ETA 2018.

    17) Harold Ramirez, OF, Grade C+: Age 21, signed by Pirates out of Colombia in 2011; came over at the deadline; hit .311/.360/.407 with 22 walks, 66 strikeouts in 383 at-bats in Double-A; hits .300 constantly with steady line drive swing but hits few homers despite 5-10, 220-pound body; gets hurt a lot and speed, arm limit him to left field, a tough profile given his lack of home run power. ETA 2018.

    18) Ryan Borucki, LHP, Grade C+/C: Age 22, 15th round pick in 2012, posted 2.41 ERA in 116 innings in Low-A with 107/26 K/BB but crushed in High-A with 14.40 ERA in 20 innings, 10/12 K/BB; standard southpaw starter with heat around 90, competent change-up and breaking ball and good control but has to how he can master better competition. Fifth starter potential. ETA 2019.

    19) Francisco Rios, RHP, Grade C+/C: Age 21, signed out of Mexico in 2012, posted 2.91 ERA with 108/29 K/BB in 121 innings between Low-A and High-A; average fastball in low-90s but throws strikes, mixes in workable slider but change-up needs more polish; whiff rate dipped after his promotion which matches reports that he needs to improve the secondaries; still, heís young and he pounds the strike zone, so keep track of him. ETA 2020.

    20) Zach Jackson, RHP, Grade C+/C: Age 22, third round pick in 2016 from University of Arkansas; 3.38 ERA with 23/12 K/BB in 19 innings between GCL and Northwest League, 14 hits; standard bullpen arsenal with 93-94 MPH fastball and a wicked breaking ball, a curve which draws 70 grades from some experts; command and control are erratic and durability concerns make him a reliever but he could move fast if he throws strikes. ETA 2019.

    OTHER GRADE C+/C: Dwight Smith, OF

    OTHERS: Angel Alicea, RHP; Danny Barnes, RHP; Travis Bergen, LHP; Cavan Biggio, 2B Will Browning, RHP; D.J. Davis, OF; Jonathan Davis, OF; Matt Dermody, LHP; Yennsy Diaz, RHP; Jose Espada, RHP; Roemon Fields, OF; Chad Girodo, LHP; Emilio Guerrero, 3B; Dusty Isaacs, RHP; Danny Jansen, C; Bradley Jones, 1B-3B; Juan Kelly, 1B-3B; Jason Leblebijian, INF; Tim Mayza, LHP; Ryan McBroom, 1B-OF; Patrick Murphy, RHP; Reggie Pruitt, OF; Jordan Romano, RHP; Glenn Sparkman, RHP

    I strongly recommend his prospect guide which can be ordered. I get it every year along with baseball prospectus and Baseball Americas prospect guide, but for me Sickels is the best

    The price is $9.95 by check WITH YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS to the PO Box address:

    John Sickels
    PO BOX 4066
    Lawrence, KS 66046
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 02-23-2017 at 03:26 AM.

  6. #2361
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    Thanks Mike... 15th is encouraging after being 25th last season.

    Top 6 is solid. Next 6 has potential. Few of the next guys have higher floors and lower ceilings but are likely MLB depth at worst.

    Had 9 overall B's and 1 B+ last year compared to 12 B's and 3 B+ (Vladdy, Reid-Foley and Urena) this year.

    Vladdy, Reid-Foley, Urena, and Harris all improved. Alford took a step back but not much.

    Davis, Hollon, Nay, Smith, Burns, Dean, Cole, Dawson and Espada dropped off from the 2016 list. Biagini graduated.

    Gurriel and Zeuch are highest newcomers at 4 and 8 joined by Bichette, Woodman, Palacios, McGuire, Ramirez Borucki, Rios and Jackson.

    With no real graduates the system is deeper and better. Only Gurriel, Tellez, McGuire and Ramirez have the slightest of shots at graduating in 2017 but i doubt it will be enough for them to come off completely from the 2018 list. Add in an extra sandwich pick to the 2017 draft the 2018 pre-season list could have the Jays in the top 12 or higher.

    2016 List: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/...pects-for-2016

  7. #2362
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    MLB Top 200:

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/...or-league-ball

    41) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, OF, Blue Jays, Grade B+
    49) Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Blue Jays, Grade B+

    COMMENT: Iím a huge fan of Vlad Jr. but I want to see him in full-season ball before ranking him higher than this.

    66) Richard Urena, SS, Blue Jays, Grade B+
    105) Lourdes Gurriel, Jr, INF-OF, Blue Jays, Grade B:
    106) Anthony Alford, OF, Blue Jays, Grade B
    138) Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Blue Jays, Grade B
    169) Jon Harris, RHP, Blue Jays, Grade B-/B

  8. #2363
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillipmike View Post
    Thanks Mike... 15th is encouraging after being 25th last season.

    Top 6 is solid. Next 6 has potential. Few of the next guys have higher floors and lower ceilings but are likely MLB depth at worst.

    Had 9 overall B's and 1 B+ last year compared to 12 B's and 3 B+ (Vladdy, Reid-Foley and Urena) this year.

    Vladdy, Reid-Foley, Urena, and Harris all improved. Alford took a step back but not much.

    Davis, Hollon, Nay, Smith, Burns, Dean, Cole, Dawson and Espada dropped off from the 2016 list. Biagini graduated.

    Gurriel and Zeuch are highest newcomers at 4 and 8 joined by Bichette, Woodman, Palacios, McGuire, Ramirez Borucki, Rios and Jackson.

    With no real graduates the system is deeper and better. Only Gurriel, Tellez, McGuire and Ramirez have the slightest of shots at graduating in 2017 but i doubt it will be enough for them to come off completely from the 2018 list. Add in an extra sandwich pick to the 2017 draft the 2018 pre-season list could have the Jays in the top 12 or higher.

    2016 List: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/...pects-for-2016
    youre a lot more realistic than some, for sure, so 10th -12th is my guess too, unless you pick up someone elses top prospects in trades, its very hard to jump more than 5 spots once you reach the top half of the ratings because all teams are trying to improve as well.

    the extra 1st will help but usually not right away since its rare that a first year draftee comes in and blows everyone away, as was the case with this years #18 Blake Rutherford, who was considered a top 3 pick who fell due to signability issues and by years end he was considered a better pick than the Number 1 pick Mickey Moniak, he had a great first year but even He didnt help the Yankees rating much. Much like Guerrero, theres usually a one year lag for even the best draft choices to impact system rankings

    the Jays have 2 picks in the top 38 IIRC, unless they get extremely Lucky and someone falls who shouldnt (like Rutherford this year) you really only show advancement by acquiring someone elses top prospects or natural growth from your own

    so yeah 10 to 12 is fair. maybe better if Guerrero and Bichette have repeat performances and earn greater appreciation
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 02-23-2017 at 09:44 PM.

  9. #2364
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    If Tellez has another great year and doesn't get called up that should help the system out as well

  10. #2365
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    That entire top 20 is on track to be an mlb contributer one day. As in if they keep up what they're currently doing and improving as they have been. Obviously that's not the reality of things but there isn't any ochinko's or Nay's where they'll basically have to turn it around or be a different player to become an mlb'r.

    I like that.

  11. #2366
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kenny Powders View Post
    If Tellez has another great year and doesn't get called up that should help the system out as well
    I'm surprised he isn't higher to be honest. I guess it has a lot to do with the way defensive tools and positional flexibility are valued in today's league.

  12. #2367
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    I'm surprised he isn't higher to be honest. I guess it has a lot to do with the way defensive tools and positional flexibility are valued in today's league.
    its more positional than anything, first base is at the very end of the defensive spectrum so to really stand out in these lists as a 1b you have to have monster power like a Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers

    A guy like Tellez is also hurt by his Perceived lack of atheticism. John Sickels has noted in the past that Tellez is one of the worst baserunners in all of baseball, which is tough to say about a kid making his way up.....Im not qualified to comment on his defensive abilities, but I'd imagine given his ratings in those areas, it cant be good, which is why Sickels projects him as a DH at the big league level

    Rowdy Tellez

    Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Speed: 20 | Fielding: 40 | Arm: 45 | ETA: 2018
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 02-24-2017 at 08:55 PM.

  13. #2368
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    its more positional than anything, first base is at the very end of the defensive spectrum so to really stand out in these lists as a 1b you have to have monster power like a Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers

    A guy like Tellez is also hurt by his Perceived lack of atheticism. John Sickels has noted in the past that Tellez is one of the worst baserunners in all of baseball, which is tough to say about a kid making his way up.....Im not qualified to comment on his defensive abilities, but I'd imagine given his ratings in those areas, it cant be good, which is why Sickels projects him as a DH at the big league level

    Rowdy Tellez

    Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Speed: 20 | Fielding: 40 | Arm: 45 | ETA: 2018
    Yah, the way players are evaluating has certainly shifted. I personally still get excited by an "all bat" type of prospect. Sometimes I wonder if the trend is leaning too far the other way. A kid his age raking in AA is enough for me to take notice (especially since there is some pedigree). The speed is a detriment, but the fielding and the arm are non-factors if you have a place to play him. AL teams still do.

  14. #2369
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    Quote Originally Posted by pebloemer View Post
    Yah, the way players are evaluating has certainly shifted. I personally still get excited by an "all bat" type of prospect. Sometimes I wonder if the trend is leaning too far the other way. A kid his age raking in AA is enough for me to take notice (especially since there is some pedigree). The speed is a detriment, but the fielding and the arm are non-factors if you have a place to play him. AL teams still do.
    if you can hit theres always a place for you. David Ortiz couldnt run, was a poor thrower and had no range, but Man could he hit.....so yes if Tellez works on that tool and keeps developing that one tool then yes they'll find a place for him. To me hitting Major League pitching with Authority is still the toughest job in all if sports

    but youre right, that the advent of Sabremetrics, the reliance on WAR and the like, has led to an emphasis on versatility and defense only players. Guys like Trumbo and Chris Carter, may be flawed one dimensional Players, no one questions that, but when guys who cant hit like Dalton Pompey can get nearly the same WAR as they do just by tossing their gloves on the field, something is wrong.

    Dont get me wrong, defense does have value, there's no question it does, but unless this is 1967-1968 and you like watching a guy like Ray Oyler slash

    .135 .213 .186 .399
    .207 .281 .264 .545

    while basically starting for the Tigers, then I dont know what to tell you.

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    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katoh...100-prospects/

    High hopes for Vladdy. 2nd on the list. Tellez and McGuire there as well.

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