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  1. #1
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    Time to trade Daniel Murphy

    http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/7/3...-daniel-murphy
    We all know what Murphy gives you defensively at second base. He’ll make some spectacular plays one day, leave you scratching your head the next, and in general, show mediocre range. All of this adds up to below-average marks from both UZR (career -6.0 UZR/150) and DRS (career -11 Rdrs/yr). These values will likely decline as he ages, but it’s not outlandish to believe that Murphy can be at least passable at second base for the next three to four years. Just don’t expect any additional value in this department. Murphy’s defensive limitations ultimately mean his value with his bat will have to supply the majority of his overall value.

    To project Murphy’s offensive contributions, let’s look at some similar players. Baseball Reference offers a great tool providing comparable players based on offensive statistics. The table below shows eight of the 10 most comparable hitters to Daniel Murphy through his age-28 season. I’ve removed numbers four (Bill Barrett) and five (Billy Werber) as they both played in the early 20th century, a completely different era of baseball. The average is weighted by PAs (not shown due to space).

    Code:
    WRC+	        28	29	30	31	32	33	34
    Jeff Cirillo	112	128	121	99	95	74	53
    Martin Prado	109	117	104	90	 	 	 
    David Dejesus	103	116	105	127	96	104	103
    Kevin Seitzer	120	96	99	102	114	115	123
    Todd Walker	94	104	98	107	114	96	52
    Chris Johnson	100	126	88	 	 	 	 
    Jim Davenport	92	121	80	77	89	87	115
    Rich Rollins	105	87	92	67	65	 	 
    Average	        105.2	114.4	100.4	98.4	100.0	96.2	103.2
    Daniel Murphy	107	112
    Murphy’s numbers are remarkably similar. Through age 28, he’s within two points of the average wRC+, and his age-29 season is within 3 points. Two data points hardly indicate a direct correlation, but the subsequent production for the field of comparable players is probably a decent projection for Murphy going forward.

    These data tell us that Murphy is not going to be an above-average hitter relative to the rest of the league. Of course, Murphy plays second base, so perhaps this lesser version of Murphy would still be an asset. Alas, this does not appear to be the case. Using Oliver as a WAR calculator, Murphy projects to be worth slightly less than 2 wins next season with a very favorable defensive score of –0.7. Given that Murphy’s career-high defensive mark is –0.3 this season in a small sample, which is far better than his career mark, expecting a –0.7 defensive value until Murphy’s age-33 season is not realistic. With this in mind, Murphy projects more as a 1-win player by the time he’s 31, if not sooner.

    However, these projections are dealing with the future, and right now Murphy is on pace for a 3.0–3.5 WAR season at second base with a 112 wRC+ (that number incorporating his most recent slump). Murphy’s left-handed bat could very easily be an asset for a contending team with a hole at second base or third base, and there seem to be plenty of potential suitors for his services; the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Giants all are getting bad performances from their current second basemen. Though reported interest has been limited to date, things could very easily heat up as we come down to the trading deadline. Murphy’s value is as high as it’s ever going to be, and there is an appreciable market for his services—there probably will never be a better time to trade Murphy.

    ***(This has all been without any mention of the Mets' organizational depth at second base. I am not a fan of Wilmer Flores—his high-contact, weak-swing approach warps his numbers in Vegas even more than the average hitter. However, he clearly gains little to nothing from remaining in Triple-A any further, and as one of the better prospects in our system, he needs to get a shot at the major league level. With Tejeda playing a (barely) passable shortstop, Flores offers an immediate replacement if Murphy is traded. Matt Reynolds is another short-term option, though he has cooled off in Vegas after a hot start. He projects more as a utility infielder, but giving him a chance to hold down a starting job is probably worthwhile.)***

    Lower in the system, Dilson Herrera has been tearing it up. Even with the obvious BABIP and small sample size caveats, his Double-A numbers are beyond impressive. Hitting .344/.405/.542 with 4 HR and 6 SB in 148 PA, good for a 160 wRC+, Herrera’s stats make him one of the best players in the Eastern League at the tender age of 20, and he certainly looks the part of a future fixture at second base.

    Given that Murphy’s value is at a peak and that the Mets have several cost-controlled, MLB-ready replacements with arguably greater upside, extending Murphy would seem a mistake. Murphy probably commands a 3-4 year deal at $30-40 million this offseason, his own comments about taking less money notwithstanding. With the limited financial resources the Mets have at the moment and our wealth of talent at second base, giving a complementary player like Murphy that kind of money for the decline phase of his career is certainly not worth it.

    It’s time to trade Daniel Murphy.
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 07-30-2014 at 05:40 PM.

  2. #2
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    Yes, his value is at an all time high and i agree that the time to trade him is now, unless you think he can be very productive long term and decide to overpay for that production.

  3. #3
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    Mets are looking to catch a wave and end season on optimistic note. Highly likely Murphy is staying through the end of the season unless they are blown away by an offer.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  4. #4
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    I have no interest in Murphy aged 31-35 at $15m per year. He should be moved.

  5. #5
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    Ending the season on an optimistic note does nothing for the organization except add a couple more wins. If you can bet something real good for Murphy now, make the deal, they have options for second base next season or the rest of the year by giving flores or even reynolds some time there.

  6. #6
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    Again, the time to trade him is now, but the team ain't gonna do that. They want to put a competitive team on the field for the remainder of the season.

    I think the Mets are going to give Murphy the Reyes treatment. They'll ride him out though 2015 and then let him walk. As far as a QO is concerned, I don't know, but Murphy isn't getting dealt any time soon. I don't even see them dealing him next time this year because presumably the Mets will be in a pennant hunt and won't want to put a ton of pressure on a guy like Herrera off the bat.

  7. #7
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    Mets should almost certainly trade Murphy now

    Only reasons not to
    the return for him is completely underwhelming
    the team can sign him to a well below market contract
    Don’t argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. —Greg King

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Mets should almost certainly trade Murphy now

    Only reasons not to
    the return for him is completely underwhelming
    the team can sign him to a well below market contract
    Yeah, if Murph wants to sign a 3/30 below market value, team friendly deal with us, I'd do something like that and keep him for a few years.

  9. #9
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    No one has any idea what types of offers the Mets may be receiving for Murphy. Without knowing the best offer on the table, no one can say he should be traded now.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    No one has any idea what types of offers the Mets may be receiving for Murphy. Without knowing the best offer on the table, no one can say he should be traded now.
    I would say "Murph, here's $30/3, you want it? No?" Then I would take the best offer anybody has, because they aren't getting any better than they will be right now.

  11. #11
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    @mccoveychron: Source: Kyle Crick left Grizzlies game in street clothes, giving hugs to everyone on the roster.

  12. #12
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    Yeah, Murphy for Crick? Lol

  13. #13
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    Nevermind, seems like it might be for Emilio Bonifacio.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Nevermind, seems like it might be for Emilio Bonifacio.
    Are you ****ing serious?

  15. #15
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    Theo have naked pictures of Beane and Sabean together in the shower?

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