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View Poll Results: Will Joc Pederson make his debut before the end of the month?

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  • Yes

    1 25.00%
  • No

    3 75.00%
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  1. #1
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    Los Angeles Dodgers (55-45) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (52-46)

    oiuliolloil
    Last edited by DodgerB24; 03-20-2015 at 01:34 PM.

  2. #2
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    2/3

  3. #3
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    Game 1
    Pitching advantage Dodgers:
    Volquez walks 15% more hitters than the average NL starter
    Ryu walks 30% less hitters than the average NL starter

    Volquez strikes out 20% less hitters than the average NL starter
    Ryu strikes out 2% more hitters than the average NL starter

    Based on BB and K rates and batted ball rates:
    Volquez is expected to give up 16% more runs than the average NL start and Ryu 6% less.

    ZiPS and Steamer projections have Ryu giving up 3.60 runs per 9 innings and Volquez giving up 4.23


    Game 2 is a bit closer pitching match up.
    ZiPS and Steamer projections and Beckett giving up 3.85 runs per 9 innings and 3.96 for Worley.

    Beckett has an outstanding ERA, but hasn't really pitched that well per his K and BB and batted ball rates
    Beckett walks 10% more hitters than the average NL starter while striking out 18% more.
    Combined with his batted ball rates, he'd be expected to give up just a bit fewer runs than a league average pitcher.

    Game 3 might favor the Pirates.
    Haren avoids walks, walking only 62% as many hitters as the average NL starter. But he doesn't get many K's - only 88% as many as the average NL starter.

    Liriano is the opposite. He walks 58% more hitters than the average NL starter while K'ing 23% more.

    Both guys would be expected to give up about a league average number of runs based on those and batted ball rates.

    ZiPS and Steamer have Haren giving up about 4 runs per 9 innings the rest of the way and Liriano closer to 3.5.

  4. #4
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    Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless, especially in a 1 game sample size...

    But good effort, nonetheless...

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless, especially in a 1 game sample size...

    But good effort, nonetheless...
    True this, I seem to remember him shutting this team down earlier.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless
    Except for that is completely false.
    Projections, while not perfect - just like any method of forecasting, are, quite simply, right more than they are wrong.

    , especially in a 1 game sample size...
    What projections do that is useful in a 1 game sample, is get to the heart of true talent.
    Stephen Fife could out pitch Clayton Kershaw on any given day, but knowing that Clayton is a better pitcher, I'll take Clayton every time.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Except for that is completely false.
    Projections, while not perfect - just like any method of forecasting, are, quite simply, right more than they are wrong.


    What projections do that is useful in a 1 game sample, is get to the heart of true talent.
    Stephen Fife could out pitch Clayton Kershaw on any given day, but knowing that Clayton is a better pitcher, I'll take Clayton every time.
    obviously, but in a game sample size we don't know who is going to be better, which is why they're useless

  8. #8
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    Ethier gets a fat 2-0 pitch and rolls weakly to 1B

  9. #9
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    Dodgers bats have woken up a bit today against a mediocre pitcher, nonetheless a good sign

    Ryu has been pretty sharp too

    5-2 Dodgers, end of 7

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Dodgers bats have woken up a bit today against a mediocre pitcher, nonetheless a good sign

    Ryu has been pretty sharp too

    5-2 Dodgers, end of 7
    That's being kind, lol.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Ethier gets a fat 2-0 pitch and rolls weakly to 1B
    He has no power. He doesn't even have gap power anymore.

    No clue what happened to him.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    obviously, but in a game sample size we don't know who is going to be better, which is why they're useless
    If you take the better guy, he'll be better more often - utility!

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerB24 View Post
    He has no power. He doesn't even have gap power anymore.

    No clue what happened to him.
    typical after 30 regression. It's been happening for 75 years in every single sport imaginable.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DerekBrink2 View Post
    typical after 30 regression. It's been happening for 75 years in every single sport imaginable.
    Sure.

    But his stats is less of a regression over time and more of flying off a cliff. Maybe I was expected more...even regression I guess.

  15. #15
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    they needed to win this game in particular, because I don't trust Beckett's hip or Haren at all.

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