Last edited by DodgerB24; 03-20-2015 at 01:34 PM.
Pitching advantage Dodgers:
Volquez walks 15% more hitters than the average NL starter
Ryu walks 30% less hitters than the average NL starter
Volquez strikes out 20% less hitters than the average NL starter
Ryu strikes out 2% more hitters than the average NL starter
Based on BB and K rates and batted ball rates:
Volquez is expected to give up 16% more runs than the average NL start and Ryu 6% less.
ZiPS and Steamer projections have Ryu giving up 3.60 runs per 9 innings and Volquez giving up 4.23
Game 2 is a bit closer pitching match up.
ZiPS and Steamer projections and Beckett giving up 3.85 runs per 9 innings and 3.96 for Worley.
Beckett has an outstanding ERA, but hasn't really pitched that well per his K and BB and batted ball rates
Beckett walks 10% more hitters than the average NL starter while striking out 18% more.
Combined with his batted ball rates, he'd be expected to give up just a bit fewer runs than a league average pitcher.
Game 3 might favor the Pirates.
Haren avoids walks, walking only 62% as many hitters as the average NL starter. But he doesn't get many K's - only 88% as many as the average NL starter.
Liriano is the opposite. He walks 58% more hitters than the average NL starter while K'ing 23% more.
Both guys would be expected to give up about a league average number of runs based on those and batted ball rates.
ZiPS and Steamer have Haren giving up about 4 runs per 9 innings the rest of the way and Liriano closer to 3.5.
Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless, especially in a 1 game sample size...
But good effort, nonetheless...
Projections, while not perfect - just like any method of forecasting, are, quite simply, right more than they are wrong.
What projections do that is useful in a 1 game sample, is get to the heart of true talent., especially in a 1 game sample size...
Stephen Fife could out pitch Clayton Kershaw on any given day, but knowing that Clayton is a better pitcher, I'll take Clayton every time.
Ethier gets a fat 2-0 pitch and rolls weakly to 1B
Dodgers bats have woken up a bit today against a mediocre pitcher, nonetheless a good sign
Ryu has been pretty sharp too
5-2 Dodgers, end of 7
they needed to win this game in particular, because I don't trust Beckett's hip or Haren at all.