Pitching advantage Dodgers:
Volquez walks 15% more hitters than the average NL starter
Ryu walks 30% less hitters than the average NL starter
Volquez strikes out 20% less hitters than the average NL starter
Ryu strikes out 2% more hitters than the average NL starter
Based on BB and K rates and batted ball rates:
Volquez is expected to give up 16% more runs than the average NL start and Ryu 6% less.
ZiPS and Steamer projections have Ryu giving up 3.60 runs per 9 innings and Volquez giving up 4.23
Game 2 is a bit closer pitching match up.
ZiPS and Steamer projections and Beckett giving up 3.85 runs per 9 innings and 3.96 for Worley.
Beckett has an outstanding ERA, but hasn't really pitched that well per his K and BB and batted ball rates
Beckett walks 10% more hitters than the average NL starter while striking out 18% more.
Combined with his batted ball rates, he'd be expected to give up just a bit fewer runs than a league average pitcher.
Game 3 might favor the Pirates.
Haren avoids walks, walking only 62% as many hitters as the average NL starter. But he doesn't get many K's - only 88% as many as the average NL starter.
Liriano is the opposite. He walks 58% more hitters than the average NL starter while K'ing 23% more.
Both guys would be expected to give up about a league average number of runs based on those and batted ball rates.
ZiPS and Steamer have Haren giving up about 4 runs per 9 innings the rest of the way and Liriano closer to 3.5.
Donít argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. óGreg King