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View Poll Results: Will Joc Pederson make his debut before the end of the month?

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  • Yes

    1 25.00%
  • No

    3 75.00%
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  1. #1
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    Los Angeles Dodgers (55-45) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (52-46)

    ...................................

    Los Angeles Dodgers (55-45) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (52-46)

    PNC Park





    Game 1. Monday, 4:05PM. SportsNet LA.

    Hyun-Jin Ryu

    104 IP | 3.44 ERA | 2.86 FIP | .319 BABIP


    After closing out the first half with six scoreless innings of two-hit ball in which he struck out 10, Ryu will attempt to carry that success into his first second-half start. In all, 13 of his 18 outings have been quality starts.
    vs.

    Edinson Volquez

    111 IP | 3.65 ERA | 4.37 FIP | .254 BABIP


    Volquez tossed a complete game in his last start, just the second of his career. He got his eighth win of the season as he held the Cardinals to one run on six hits and struck out five.



    Game 2. Tuesday, 4:05PM. SportsNet LA.

    Josh Beckett

    103 IP | 2.26 ERA | 3.86 FIP | .235 BABIP


    Battling hip impingement, which was revealed to be a torn labrum with two cysts in his left hip, Beckett will return to the rotation after a 40-pitch bullpen session Saturday. The 34-year-old right-hander has a 2.26 ERA in 17 starts.
    vs.

    Vance Worley

    34 IP | 3.38 ERA | 3.89 FIP | .278 BABIP


    The right-hander will be making his first start since July 8 on Monday against the Dodgers. Worley also pitched two innings of relief on July 13 and has a 7.71 ERA in his last two appearances.



    Game 3. Wednesday, 4:05PM. SportsNet LA.

    Dan Haren

    117 IP | 4.30 ERA | 4.51 FIP | .296 BABIP


    For the second straight start, Haren couldn't get out of the fifth inning Friday, surrendering three runs in 4 2/3 innings. The right-hander hasn't pitch six innings in six of his last nine outings and has a 9.64 ERA in three July starts.
    vs.

    Fransisco Liriano

    81 IP | 4.43 ERA | 4.13 FIP | .301 BABIP


    Liriano settled down after a first two innings full of baserunners in his first start after the break. The lefty didn't allow a hit in his final three frames and gave up one run in his second start since a month-long DL stint (strained left oblique).
    #ITFDB

  2. #2
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    2/3
    Foam Party!

  3. #3
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    Game 1
    Pitching advantage Dodgers:
    Volquez walks 15% more hitters than the average NL starter
    Ryu walks 30% less hitters than the average NL starter

    Volquez strikes out 20% less hitters than the average NL starter
    Ryu strikes out 2% more hitters than the average NL starter

    Based on BB and K rates and batted ball rates:
    Volquez is expected to give up 16% more runs than the average NL start and Ryu 6% less.

    ZiPS and Steamer projections have Ryu giving up 3.60 runs per 9 innings and Volquez giving up 4.23


    Game 2 is a bit closer pitching match up.
    ZiPS and Steamer projections and Beckett giving up 3.85 runs per 9 innings and 3.96 for Worley.

    Beckett has an outstanding ERA, but hasn't really pitched that well per his K and BB and batted ball rates
    Beckett walks 10% more hitters than the average NL starter while striking out 18% more.
    Combined with his batted ball rates, he'd be expected to give up just a bit fewer runs than a league average pitcher.

    Game 3 might favor the Pirates.
    Haren avoids walks, walking only 62% as many hitters as the average NL starter. But he doesn't get many K's - only 88% as many as the average NL starter.

    Liriano is the opposite. He walks 58% more hitters than the average NL starter while K'ing 23% more.

    Both guys would be expected to give up about a league average number of runs based on those and batted ball rates.

    ZiPS and Steamer have Haren giving up about 4 runs per 9 innings the rest of the way and Liriano closer to 3.5.
    Donít argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. óGreg King

  4. #4
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    Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless, especially in a 1 game sample size...

    But good effort, nonetheless...
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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless, especially in a 1 game sample size...

    But good effort, nonetheless...
    True this, I seem to remember him shutting this team down earlier.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Except for the fact that projections for the most part are useless
    Except for that is completely false.
    Projections, while not perfect - just like any method of forecasting, are, quite simply, right more than they are wrong.

    , especially in a 1 game sample size...
    What projections do that is useful in a 1 game sample, is get to the heart of true talent.
    Stephen Fife could out pitch Clayton Kershaw on any given day, but knowing that Clayton is a better pitcher, I'll take Clayton every time.
    Donít argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. óGreg King

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Except for that is completely false.
    Projections, while not perfect - just like any method of forecasting, are, quite simply, right more than they are wrong.


    What projections do that is useful in a 1 game sample, is get to the heart of true talent.
    Stephen Fife could out pitch Clayton Kershaw on any given day, but knowing that Clayton is a better pitcher, I'll take Clayton every time.
    obviously, but in a game sample size we don't know who is going to be better, which is why they're useless
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  8. #8
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    Ethier gets a fat 2-0 pitch and rolls weakly to 1B
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  9. #9
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    Dodgers bats have woken up a bit today against a mediocre pitcher, nonetheless a good sign

    Ryu has been pretty sharp too

    5-2 Dodgers, end of 7
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Dodgers bats have woken up a bit today against a mediocre pitcher, nonetheless a good sign

    Ryu has been pretty sharp too

    5-2 Dodgers, end of 7
    That's being kind, lol.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    Ethier gets a fat 2-0 pitch and rolls weakly to 1B
    He has no power. He doesn't even have gap power anymore.

    No clue what happened to him.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by LASportsFan1996 View Post
    obviously, but in a game sample size we don't know who is going to be better, which is why they're useless
    If you take the better guy, he'll be better more often - utility!
    Donít argue with idiots because they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience. óGreg King

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerB24 View Post
    He has no power. He doesn't even have gap power anymore.

    No clue what happened to him.
    typical after 30 regression. It's been happening for 75 years in every single sport imaginable.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DerekBrink2 View Post
    typical after 30 regression. It's been happening for 75 years in every single sport imaginable.
    Sure.

    But his stats is less of a regression over time and more of flying off a cliff. Maybe I was expected more...even regression I guess.

  15. #15
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    they needed to win this game in particular, because I don't trust Beckett's hip or Haren at all.

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