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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2009

    Living on the Edge - Jake Peavy

    Interesting Fangraphs article:

    What are your expectations going forward?

    And do you think Peavy will be with the Red Sox by the end of 2014?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    I didn't read the article, but I've been thinking the same thing. We are very lucky he hasn't given up a ton of runs. He's walking guys at a ridiculous rate, combine that with his normal high homerun rate and we are lucky he hasn't gotten blown out of games. Hes never walked guys anywhere close to this much before, so I'm hopeful it's just SSS and he will turn it around.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Greenville, SC
    Peavy has been much more reticent to throw the ball down the heart of the plate than he has the past few years. Chopping up the numbers, we find that while he threw to the three squares in the middle of the strike zone 13.7% from 2011-2013, this season he is down to 13.1%. The center square on its own is even more illuminating. From 2011-2013, Peavy pitched to the center square 5.5% of the time. This year, he is down to 4.2%. Obviously, it is still early, but Peavy is setting up a pattern of staying out of the middle. As such, the increased walk rate might not be a fluke.
    This sample from the article is a great example of majoring in the minutiae. I certainly won't argue with the facts but point out that the example of what the authors call "much more reticent to throw the ball down the heart of the plate" amounts to one pitch per outing.

    Everyone is writing about Peavy's high walk rate so I'm attributing this article to an attempt to explain the obvious the wrong way. Stepping back a bit I notice that, historically, the two worst months for Peavy walking batters are April and September. They're also the two coldest months on the MLB calendar. Combine that with an unusually cold spring and issues other pitchers have had gripping the ball in the cold, and I think we literally have environmental factors producing a SSS anomaly.

    As to Pittz question, yeah, I think Peavy is likely to be around at the end of the season. The PAW pitchers seemingly making the most noise at the moment are guys that I anticipate coming in through the BP and I'm not sure Peavy's value on the trade market will exceed his value to the team if he continues getting out of jams the way he has.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    I think he should be a decent #3 or #4 pitcher for us but nothing more.
    With the deepest of regrets I am announcing that I will be leaving Pro Sports Daily. No reason in particular but wanted to thank everyone for a great 6 years here. Lots of great discussion and good poll series as well. Also fun re-drafts. Best of luck to you all in the future.

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