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  1. #1
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    Titans Draft Grades & Ruston Webster Previous Drafts

    I just done some digging today looking back at old drafts and values done by pro football reference. I looked at the Titans and then the Seahawks when they were under Webster and Ruskell both now with the Titans.

    Seahawks 05-09

    37 total draft picks
    6 starters
    2 pro bowl players


    Tennessee Titans since 2000

    2000

    10 picks
    4 solid players (Bulluck, Peter Sirmon, Erron Kinney and Robaire Smith)
    1 star player in Bulluck
    Total Value - 167

    2001

    7 picks
    1 starter in Andre Dyson (only played in Tennessee for 4 years)
    1 contributor in Justin McCareins
    Poor Draft
    Total Value - 91

    2002

    10 picks
    3 starters (Haynesworth, Tank Williams and Justin Hartwig)
    1 star player in Haynesworth
    2 contributors in Williams and Hartwig (both only started 3 seasons)
    Total Value - 159

    2003

    6 picks
    Chris Brown best player in this draft class for Titans
    Terrible draft
    Total Value - 49

    2004

    13 picks
    Eugene Amano started 4 years for the Titans
    Odom, Starks and Bell were multi-year starters but mostly with other teams
    Total Value - 190 (mostly based on what players done while on other teams)

    2005

    11 picks
    David Stewart and Michael Roos bookends for 8 years
    Vincent Fuller, Bo Scaife and Reynaldo Hill as contributors
    Total Value - 209 (mostly as Titans)

    2006

    11 picks
    Finnegan and Tulloch as solid starters
    Lendale White and Vince Young as short-term contributors
    Total Value - 154

    2007

    10 picks
    Michael Griffin as solid starter
    Leroy Harris as contributor (2 year starter)
    Poor Draft
    Only Griffin still on team
    Total Draft Value - 101

    2008

    8 picks
    Chris Johnson and Craig Stevens
    Only Stevens still on team
    Total Draft Value - 124

    2009

    11 picks
    Jason McCourty
    Only 5 years ago and McCourty only still on the team
    Total Draft Value - 98

    2010

    10 picks
    Derrick Morgan and Marc Mariani only still on the team
    Total Draft Value - 58

    Not gonna do the recent ones

    But its funny looking at the drafts it matches how they have had ups and downs as a franchise

    Good drafts in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2008

    Bad drafts in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2010

    Its frustrating looking back and seeing pretty much the same pattern every season.

    1-2 solid contributors from each draft
    3-4 guys that don't amount to anything
    2-3 guys that are good players but leave after 3-4 seasons

    I mean you look at 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. All we got currently to show for those drafts are Michael Griffin, Craig Stevens, Jason McCourty and Derrick Morgan.

    It depends on Locker and Zach Brown but we could be looking back and seeing 2011 and 2012 as drafts with only 1 solid starter as well (Casey and Kendall Wright)

  2. #2
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    I think too often fans look at drafts and base them on how many pro bowlers we drafted that year,how many stud players we got but that's not the blueprint for success. Instead, it's building a solid core and placing quality pieces around it. This year I agree with Webster/Whiz that we are set at the starters positions even before the draft but we continue to add quality pieces. Some of the pieces will contribute next year, some in a couple years, others will never contribute. Looking at this years draft I believe we added the following pieces

    A quarterback who has the look and tools to be our quarterback for the next decade.

    A running back who can do anything we ask of him.

    A defensive lineman who plays with aggression and power, who is also versatile in our new scheme.

    A versatile piece in the secondary who can play corner, slot corner or safety.

    An inside linebacker who has great intangibles but may never be more than a special teams stud.

    One of the best players in this draft and at the second most important position, one who has pro bowl LT written all over him.

  3. #3
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    I would be interested at seeing that average value for every team from 2000-2010 but I'm not gonna sit down and do all that math.

    I did read another article that showed that 2nd and 3rd round picks have almost as much value as 1st round picks when you adjust for value on the trade charts. Both a 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick on average returns 70% as much value as a 1st round pick but at a much smaller salary.

    In theory a team could trade back out of the 1st round and pick up multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks and achieve (1) more value on average (2) pay less money for more players (3) increase their chances of getting a starter with multiple picks instead of banking on just 1 player.

    The difference however is that a 1st round pick obviously is more likely to be a star impact player. But if you already have some star impact players....

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    Now Locker will feel the pressure, it's make or break. Mettenberger should not start any this season tho. Let him sit and learn before even entering his name into the discussion for starter in 2015. Our biggest problem isn't developing players, it's force feeding them into significant snaps before they are ready. No one in this rookie class should see significant snaps except Lewan, he should be penciled in as a starter today. Sankey is a close call but with the current three headed backfield, let's bring this kid along slowly until he shows he can grap the reins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingOfDaNorth View Post
    Now Locker will feel the pressure, it's make or break. Mettenberger should not start any this season tho. Let him sit and learn before even entering his name into the discussion for starter in 2015. Our biggest problem isn't developing players, it's force feeding them into significant snaps before they are ready. No one in this rookie class should see significant snaps except Lewan, he should be penciled in as a starter today. Sankey is a close call but with the current three headed backfield, let's bring this kid along slowly until he shows he can grap the reins.
    See in my opinion looking at this current draft i see players that can come in and contribute right away whether it be as a starter or a rotational player. I dont think players should sit if they are going to help from day one. As an example if Mettenberger beats out everyone in camp, then start him. If he is the best player to help win games then start him.

    The nice thing about this year though is the coaching staff has gotten a million times better with experience and good quality coaches. With the pieces added this offseason and the only real loss being Verner, this team could definatly surprise and compete for a wildcard spot. Mostly depending on Locker and how he comes along and how the players adjust to a different system. I am very excited to see what this team is capable of not just this year but heading into the next few.
    Psalms 118:6 - The LORD is on my side; I will not fear: what can man do unto me?

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    Quote Originally Posted by McFlurry View Post
    See in my opinion looking at this current draft i see players that can come in and contribute right away whether it be as a starter or a rotational player. I dont think players should sit if they are going to help from day one. As an example if Mettenberger beats out everyone in camp, then start him. If he is the best player to help win games then start him.

    The nice thing about this year though is the coaching staff has gotten a million times better with experience and good quality coaches. With the pieces added this offseason and the only real loss being Verner, this team could definatly surprise and compete for a wildcard spot. Mostly depending on Locker and how he comes along and how the players adjust to a different system. I am very excited to see what this team is capable of not just this year but heading into the next few.
    Oh absolutely, if any of this draft class outplay the others at the position they should play. My point is a player like Sankey or Mettenberger, both of which are likely the most talented in their position battles, should not be thrust into snaps based solely on that. Instead if Mettenberger winds up sitting as a rookie and Locker remains healthy, accept it and don't force Mettenberger into the game. Sankey is the same, do not thrust him into number 1 duty or any for that matter, let's see him earn every snap. Stop awarding players snaps based on talent, salary and draft status. Instead award them on production, effort, hustle, etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingOfDaNorth View Post
    Now Locker will feel the pressure, it's make or break. Mettenberger should not start any this season tho. Let him sit and learn before even entering his name into the discussion for starter in 2015. Our biggest problem isn't developing players, it's force feeding them into significant snaps before they are ready. No one in this rookie class should see significant snaps except Lewan, he should be penciled in as a starter today. Sankey is a close call but with the current three headed backfield, let's bring this kid along slowly until he shows he can grap the reins.
    I don't think that Jake Locker all of the sudden now feels like somebody is breathing down his neck because they drafted a quarterback in the 6th round. He already knew that this was a make or break season and has said it repeatedly in interviews. He said in one interview that he knows especially with a new coaching staff coming in that if he doesn't perform then he will be looking for a new job next year and may even find himself on the sideline this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingOfDaNorth View Post
    Oh absolutely, if any of this draft class outplay the others at the position they should play. My point is a player like Sankey or Mettenberger, both of which are likely the most talented in their position battles, should not be thrust into snaps based solely on that. Instead if Mettenberger winds up sitting as a rookie and Locker remains healthy, accept it and don't force Mettenberger into the game. Sankey is the same, do not thrust him into number 1 duty or any for that matter, let's see him earn every snap. Stop awarding players snaps based on talent, salary and draft status. Instead award them on production, effort, hustle, etc.
    I think that is a real reach to say that Mettenberger is more talented than Jake Locker. He wouldn't have been sitting there in the 6th round otherwise....

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    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityroller View Post
    I think that is a real reach to say that Mettenberger is more talented than Jake Locker. He wouldn't have been sitting there in the 6th round otherwise....
    Thank you...loved the pick, but let's not get carried away
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    Agreed, these guys are two different styles of qb so its really which one can fit the system and what the new coaching staff wants. Its nice talking about the refreshing changes and additions this year, it kind of feels like a new team all together.
    Psalms 118:6 - The LORD is on my side; I will not fear: what can man do unto me?

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    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityroller View Post
    I think that is a real reach to say that Mettenberger is more talented than Jake Locker. He wouldn't have been sitting there in the 6th round otherwise....
    Its unseen if Mettenberger is more talented than Locker or not, but its a definite possibility, Mettenberger was projected as high as the 2nd Round so obviously he has talent, I wouldnt be surprised if Mettenberger did beat out Locker in Training Camp
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  12. #12
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    I'm just very cautiously optimistic about Mettenberger. I got to watch him play a ton and he never really came across to me as having anything more than just a strong arm. He disappeared or laid an egg in so many of their big games. Just look at the last 2 seasons where he started at LSU

    Non-Conference
    138-208 66% 2092 yards with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions

    Conference
    261-440 59% 3599 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions

    Last year he had 7 games where he threw the ball 23 times or less and in the big games they throttled him back almost as if he was a liability.

    I still think he was an absolute steal in the 6th round. But I just think the talk of him coming in and beating out Locker is really premature.
    Last edited by steelcityroller; 05-11-2014 at 08:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityroller View Post
    I don't think that Jake Locker all of the sudden now feels like somebody is breathing down his neck because they drafted a quarterback in the 6th round. He already knew that this was a make or break season and has said it repeatedly in interviews. He said in one interview that he knows especially with a new coaching staff coming in that if he doesn't perform then he will be looking for a new job next year and may even find himself on the sideline this year.
    Zach Mettenberger was viewed as a first round pick at the beginning of this season and had he not torn his ACL he likely would've been so let's not treat this as us bringing in Tyrod Taylor (an imcapable backup of inferior talent). Mettenberger has all the physical tools to become a Big Ben caliber quarterback. And yes Locker knew this was a huge year for him but it becomes that much bigger when your potential replacement gets brought in. Mettenberger fits the mood of what Whizenhunt looks for, Locker does not. I hope Locker can stay healthy and play well this season but he was just put on notice..

    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityroller View Post
    I think that is a real reach to say that Mettenberger is more talented than Jake Locker. He wouldn't have been sitting there in the 6th round otherwise....
    Tom Brady was taken in the sixth round, Kurt Warner went undrafted so to compare them based on draft position is foolish. I'd be willing to bet if you threw Locker and Mettenberger into this past draft atleast half the league takes Zach first.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingOfDaNorth View Post
    Zach Mettenberger was viewed as a first round pick at the beginning of this season and had he not torn his ACL he likely would've been so let's not treat this as us bringing in Tyrod Taylor (an imcapable backup of inferior talent). Mettenberger has all the physical tools to become a Big Ben caliber quarterback. And yes Locker knew this was a huge year for him but it becomes that much bigger when your potential replacement gets brought in. Mettenberger fits the mood of what Whizenhunt looks for, Locker does not. I hope Locker can stay healthy and play well this season but he was just put on notice..



    Tom Brady was taken in the sixth round, Kurt Warner went undrafted so to compare them based on draft position is foolish. I'd be willing to bet if you threw Locker and Mettenberger into this past draft atleast half the league takes Zach first.
    And for every Tom Brady and Kurt Warner there have been 100 that never even started a game.

    It certainly was more than a torn ACL that caused Mettenberger to fall to the 6th round.... Marcus Lattimore had people saying that he could possibly never play again after 2 major surgeries on his knees and was still a 4th round pick. You had multiple players last year selected in rounds 2 and 3 that teams knew were gonna spend the year on IR.

    If teams felt Mettenberger had 1st round talent he wouldn't have dropped to the 6th round injured or otherwise....

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    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityroller View Post
    And for every Tom Brady and Kurt Warner there have been 100 that never even started a game.

    It certainly was more than a torn ACL that caused Mettenberger to fall to the 6th round.... Marcus Lattimore had people saying that he could possibly never play again after 2 major surgeries on his knees and was still a 4th round pick. You had multiple players last year selected in rounds 2 and 3 that teams knew were gonna spend the year on IR.

    If teams felt Mettenberger had 1st round talent he wouldn't have dropped to the 6th round injured or otherwise....
    And for every Luck or Manning, you have 100 Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. We could go thru every round and throw out great players who were steals vs players who were wasted draft picks.

    Marcus Lattimore is an amazing player who never had his work ethic challenged nor did he have any red flags. Also, the 49ers knew they could afford a "red shirt" season for him because the reward outweighed the risk. Not too many teams have that type of luxury when it comes to draft picks or personel decisions.

    Zach Mettenberger has 1st round talent, no question about it, anyone who would argue it is out of their mind. 6'5", 230lbs who may enter the nfl with one of the strongest arms in the league along get him into the discussion. While I realize his injury and red flags cost him severely, you would be crazy to not realize his physical attributes and ability. Many teams may have opted against rolling the dice on a player with that level of baggage but a player of his talent level is an absolute steal in the 6th. Ron Jaworski of espn had Zach ranked only behind Bortles and gave both similar grades. I'm not sitting here singing his praises or a belief he will be our franchise quarterback but he is more talented than Locker and a complete steal. Time will tell tho..

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