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  1. #1
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    Stolen Bases are becoming underappreciated

    I can't stand this BS when people say that they are meaningless. That's not true, Caught Steals are meaningless. Guys with high success rates are adding production, it's just that simple.

    Like when Dee Gordon went 2-3 last night with a double and single. He stole 2nd after the single and stole 3rd after the double. Both time the bases were empty. That's just as good as going 2-3 with a triple and double.

  2. #2
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    "caught steals are meaningless"

    I can't even put into words how dumb that comment is. I sincerely hope that was an exaggeration on your part.

    Terms like under-appreciated are subjective so I don't like to use them. If someone thinks they mean nothing then yeah they are being under-appreciated but if someone thinks they're the most important stat than they are being overrated.

    I do think a lot of the statistical data on why they are less important than traditionally thought leaves out a lot of important effects that cant be quantified.

    If a pitcher is afraid the guy on 1st is going to steal he will probably throw more fastballs to the current hitter. One of the middle infielders may cheat toward the bag which can open up a hole for the hitter or potentially take a hit towards the middle away. In order for those things to take effect the guy on 1st never even has to attempt to steal a base. That's why I think some of the value of a SB gets lost in statistical analysis.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Haha View Post
    What I feel right now is like the satisfaction you feel when a highly judgmental, moralistic televangelist gets caught screwing a male hooker.
    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

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  3. #3
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    I mean to say caught steals are what makes them meaningless. Lots of steals doesn't mean a thing if you can't have a high success rate.

  4. #4
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    Ah well in that case you're 1000% correct IMO. I thought you meant that getting caught a lot was ok if you were successful a lot too.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Haha View Post
    What I feel right now is like the satisfaction you feel when a highly judgmental, moralistic televangelist gets caught screwing a male hooker.
    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Ah well in that case you're 1000% correct IMO.
    Remember when Ellsbury went 52-56 in steals last year? That's going to help the team.

  6. #6
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    to add value with stolen bases you need to convert them about 2/3 of the time

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by beyourself View Post
    I can't stand this BS when people say that they are meaningless. That's not true, Caught Steals are meaningless. Guys with high success rates are adding production, it's just that simple.

    Like when Dee Gordon went 2-3 last night with a double and single. He stole 2nd after the single and stole 3rd after the double. Both time the bases were empty. That's just as good as going 2-3 with a triple and double.
    The base line rule is if you are able to steal with a success rate of 75% or better, than you should be stealing more often

    If you are below that, then you need to stop trying to steal so many bases.


    Situations make that differ, so does the base you are stealing (third, sometimes home?), who is at the plate etc.


    But stolen base rate is just as important as the raw stolen base number.

  8. #8
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    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ses-lack-value

    This link has all the numbers for you though.

  9. #9
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    In Detroit the idea of stealing bases is like a new revolution to the game Its so refreshing to see guys run and try to force scoring chances instead of depending on the homerun ball.



    Catches: 8 Yards: 80 TDs: 1

  10. #10
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    I'll take a 78/100 over 52/56

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheQueensKid View Post
    I'll take a 78/100 over 52/56
    26 out of 44?

    No freaking way, that's 59%


    Give me the 52/26 every day of the week and have him sit on first base the other 44 times

  12. #12
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    There extremely important especially nearing the last innings !
    Be $wavy

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ses-lack-value

    This link has all the numbers for you though.
    The break even point is a lower percentage in lower run scoring environments. In the National League there is what like 4.00 runs scored per game? We're back to playing real baseball it seems.

    So I wouldn't be surprised if the general rule of 75% or greater isn't as applicable today as it was when the run scoring environment was higher. It's probably slightly lower and it's for sure lower than what it was.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by beyourself View Post
    The break even point is a lower percentage in lower run scoring environments. In the National League there is what like 4.00 runs scored per game? We're back to playing real baseball it seems.

    So I wouldn't be surprised if the general rule of 75% or greater isn't as applicable today as it was when the run scoring environment was higher. It's probably slightly lower and it's for sure lower than what it was.

    That link is from this Feb, with all of that accounted for (through 2013)

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    26 out of 44?

    No freaking way, that's 59%


    Give me the 52/26 every day of the week and have him sit on first base the other 44 times


    52/56 (93%) is substantially better than 78/100 is. (78%)

    So yes, I would take that over 78/100. But where does, 59% come in?

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