Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Results 1 to 15 of 15
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    405
    vCash
    1500

    ESPN's New Stat Real Plus Minus

    ESPN came out with a “new” stat called Real Plus Minus. It takes raw plus/minus and factors how good the players your playing with, how good the players your playing against, home or away, back to back or one night of rest….this sounds familiar…

    My understanding that I got from the APBRmetrics forum is that Real Plus Minus(RPM) is expected Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus(xRAPM) but with a twist….RPM doesn't take into account the value of a coach…so essentially RPM is xRAPM but without a coach adjustment.

    Is this new stat better or worse than before now that it doesn’t have a coach adjustment?
    How do you feel that ESPN took an already existing stat, made a small tweak and now calls it their own?
    Is this good for the advancement of the analytics community that a mainstream outlet such as ESPN now shares the hard works of Jeremias Engelmann?
    Do you think this is just another stupid advanced stat?

    Thoughts?

    http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10...eal-plus-minus
    http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Posts
    64,247
    vCash
    500
    I'm listening to The Lowe Post as we speak. I kinda dove into things a little bit last night. I'll collect my thoughts later.


    I'm a big fan of adjusted plus/minus stats. The ability to test their predictability makes them wildly powerful.

    And, a precursor, I think when stats tell you something you DON'T expect or don't want to believe (ie. "my player is lower than I think he should be so this stat is crap"), rather than dismiss the stat it's probably better to step back, try to watch or think of that player in a different light, and see if maybe your biases or preexisting beliefs cloud things. I watched the Thunder/Clippers last night and just had my eyes fixed on Collison, for example. In his (small) role, he's flawless. And a player's role matters with these sorts of stats.

    But all in all, I don't quite get the difference aside from the coach factor.


    And I'm VERY happy ESPN has taken this on. It's such a great resource and something I think more and more people should be aware of. I'd be curious to see how Jeremais feels here.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    835
    vCash
    1500
    Nice this gonna be useful for fantasy hopefully
    Be $wavy

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    14,722
    vCash
    1500
    Well, like virtually any stat, it doesn't attempt to comprehend particular team schemes or role, and as a result we get a # with limited context. But that said, I think it does a great job of understanding the worth of certain players in their particular role (even if it the net # will be seen as overvaluing certain players).

    I'm glad they chose to use the multi-year version and not single season. That can produce some cloudy results in RAPM, even if it slightly muddies the results if people are just looking for a "most productive players this season" type stat.

    And @OP, I'm pretty sure the creators had their hands all over this. I could be wrong, but I don't think ESPN made a slight alteration and stole the stat from Jerry and others who had a part in building it.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    14,722
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by slaker619 View Post
    Nice this gonna be useful for fantasy hopefully
    Negative ghost rider. Just stick to basketball-monster for that.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    5,043
    vCash
    1613
    Curry is third. Behind only Lebron and Durant. I approve of this stat.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    405
    vCash
    1500
    The thing is with a stat like this being ESPN hopefully people aren’t going to start arguing that Ryan Hollins is one of the best defensive centers in the game or that DeAndre Jordan is the BEST center in the game because of their RPM ranking…it tells part of the story…not an end all be all…but it does give life to guys who don’t light up the boxscore but do other things well like Draymond Green or Tiago

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    405
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by tredigs View Post
    Well, like virtually any stat, it doesn't attempt to comprehend particular team schemes or role, and as a result we get a # with limited context. But that said, I think it does a great job of understanding the worth of certain players in their particular role (even if it the net # will be seen as overvaluing certain players).

    I'm glad they chose to use the multi-year version and not single season. That can produce some cloudy results in RAPM, even if it slightly muddies the results if people are just looking for a "most productive players this season" type stat.

    And @OP, I'm pretty sure the creators had their hands all over this. I could be wrong, but I don't think ESPN made a slight alteration and stole the stat from Jerry and others who had a part in building it.
    Yea your right…I think guys like Kevin Pelton, Kevin Arnovitz, Henry Abbott along with guys like Royce Webb were instrumental in figuring out what went into RPM….it just feels like ESPN made a simple tweak and now its their own new stat because on some ESPN truehoop blogs talking about RPM there haven’t been many mentions of Jeremias Engelmann and his hard work…I just wish they give more credit to the people that got the ball rolling on this…but you are right…they didn’t just make a simple tweak and now its theirs….it just feels like it lol

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    14,722
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Goose17 View Post
    Curry is third. Behind only Lebron and Durant. I approve of this stat.
    In WAR at least. By strictly their multi-year RPM it goes Lebron, CP3, Iguodala, Durant, Dirk, Nick Collison, Curry, Duncan.

    I just checked the Warriors rundown and Iguodala + Draymond Green rank #1 and 2 for D-RPM at the wing position. Bogut ranks #2 with Marc Gasol - only behind Garnett for top D-RPM for centers (there's those prior years coming into play) - and Curry ranks #1 at PG for O-RPM (behind Lebron and KD overall). Klay ranks 6th for SG's in RPM and 3rd behind Dragic and Harden in WAR. D. Lee ranks around the 90 and 130 mark overall for WAR and RPM...

    If there's ever a stat that confirms my belief that were a better team with Draymond in place of D. Lee this is it.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Posts
    64,247
    vCash
    500
    Quote Originally Posted by Goose17 View Post
    Curry is third. Behind only Lebron and Durant. I approve of this stat.
    And that's precisely how it shouldn't work...but surely how it does.

    "My favorite player ranks such-and-such, therefore I approve/don't approve of this stat"...

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    1
    vCash
    500
    Thanks for the kind words everybody. I'm glad you guys like it.

    Also, you don't have to worry about me - I sold it to ESPN. They didn't "steal" it or anything

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    La Habra, CA
    Posts
    15,601
    vCash
    500
    Quote Originally Posted by ManRamForPrez24 View Post
    And that's precisely how it shouldn't work...but surely how it does.

    "My favorite player ranks such-and-such, therefore I approve/don't approve of this stat"...
    The lakers commentators said Ryan Kelly ranked 2nd in this stat for all rookies, therefore I approve of this stat.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Bay Area
    Posts
    14,722
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by J.E. View Post
    Thanks for the kind words everybody. I'm glad you guys like it.

    Also, you don't have to worry about me - I sold it to ESPN. They didn't "steal" it or anything
    Cheers, glad to see the hard work had its payoff. I'm also glad it was to ESPN (for exposure reasons) and that the high rankings of players like Colliison and Draymond Green can help spur a casual fan to ask "why?" and try seek out the answers for it while watching their games.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    7,914
    vCash
    1500
    Seeing Channing Frye that high on the list, means it has flaws somewhere lol.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    5,043
    vCash
    1613
    Quote Originally Posted by ManRamForPrez24 View Post
    And that's precisely how it shouldn't work...but surely how it does.

    "My favorite player ranks such-and-such, therefore I approve/don't approve of this stat"...
    lol, you know I was joking based on your previous post before mine right?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •