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  1. #1
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    The Hidden Value of the Steal (Written for Love and Rubio)

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...the-nba-steal/

    I thought you guys would find this article interesting. This is an economics approach to the statistical numbers. I'm not going to make the argument that Rubio is harder to replace than Love but I will argue that the positive influence each of them have on the Wolves finding a win is a smaller gap than many believe.

    Love puts up statistical numbers for the stat hound to munch on. Love also has deficiencies which lowers his impact on a win significantly. Rubio doesn't put up stat lines (especially efficient stats) but his impact on the team finding a win is greater than can be shown statistically.

    Rubio's play DOESN'T help the team find a win more than Love's does. That is not the point of me posting this link. The gap between the two (especially for you statistical based people) isn't as large as you think it is.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    Vancouver is the best city in North America and that's not just my opinion we win awards for it all the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    K Love is basically TT with a shot and better passing.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by WSU Tony View Post
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...the-nba-steal/

    I thought you guys would find this article interesting. This is an economics approach to the statistical numbers. I'm not going to make the argument that Rubio is harder to replace than Love but I will argue that the positive influence each of them have on the Wolves finding a win is a smaller gap than many believe.

    Love puts up statistical numbers for the stat hound to munch on. Love also has deficiencies which lowers his impact on a win significantly. Rubio doesn't put up stat lines (especially efficient stats) but his impact on the team finding a win is greater than can be shown statistically.

    Rubio's play DOESN'T help the team find a win more than Love's does. That is not the point of me posting this link. The gap between the two (especially for you statistical based people) isn't as large as you think it is.
    It absolutely is. Basic and advanced stats show that almost all of the games we have won they both played well, and I mean both, and their impact on the win/lose outcome is almost equal when each has a good or a bad game. It should also be added that PER is very efficient for the reason explained here. At the very least, a steal should be worth around 4 points. At the very best a steal takes away a 3 from the other team and gives a 3 to your team - +/- of 6 pts. At the very worse a steal takes away 2 points from the other team. With the the actual 3pt attempt rate consisting of 26% of all field goals, it can be easily deduced that the best case scenario a steal results in a 4.52 average point difference and the worst case scenario a 2.26 average difference for a total average of the two of 3.39 pts/per steal with no other cost. For example, each rebound, assist, e.t.c. has cost, even an offensive rebound has efficiency cost to the team or the player that missed the original shot. At the same clip though, however, turn-overs do a similar thing that the author forgets to mention. With everything equal though, and Rubio's steals basically offsetting his turnovers, even by PER metrics Love's numbers should be down closer to Rubio's. For this same reason, Shved would be a much better option as a backup PG than Barea, look at their ***/to and stl/to numbers per 36 minutes - it's not even close.
    Last edited by Oefarmy2005; 04-09-2014 at 12:56 PM.


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  3. #3
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    I think I would chuckle if someone tried to convince me a steal is worth 9 points.... The 5-7 range probably is about right.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    Vancouver is the best city in North America and that's not just my opinion we win awards for it all the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    K Love is basically TT with a shot and better passing.

  4. #4
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    I mean, it can be in the best case scenario, if you factor in fouls after, flagrant fouls, clear path, e.t.c., but on average, it's likely a bit more than my estimation because of fouls drawn, and it should have a bit more value because most steals do result in a higher shot percentage due to man advantage, e.t.c., so I'd say it should probably be in the 4-5 pt range on average. Turnovers should not be worth a bit less, because not all turnovers result in the type of advantage for the other team as steals do.


    PSD Grammar Lesson #1:

    a) their - stands for "belonging to them"
    b) there - means "over there" as in location
    c) they're - short for "they are"

  5. #5
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    There are so many other holes in Hollinger's PER. For example, not all player fouls are created equal. An offensive foul is also a turnover, so these are mutually exclusive and should only be counted once. Some fouls save a break away basket, so in some cases may have a somewhat positive affect. Or what about fouls to give?


    PSD Grammar Lesson #1:

    a) their - stands for "belonging to them"
    b) there - means "over there" as in location
    c) they're - short for "they are"

  6. #6
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    This is the article that just won't go away. I have seen people use it about 4 or 5 times now, and I keep not reading tit....but it just won't go away. Might have to read it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PurpleJesus View Post
    This is the article that just won't go away. I have seen people use it about 4 or 5 times now, and I keep not reading tit....but it just won't go away. Might have to read it.
    It's not a good article if you are looking at hard facts, and whatever the author does, he shows almost zero numerical support, but the message is pretty accurate, and it makes me lean that has assessment in it's core is right. 82Games says the team production with Love and Rubio on/off the court is very close.
    Last edited by Oefarmy2005; 04-09-2014 at 02:55 PM.


    PSD Grammar Lesson #1:

    a) their - stands for "belonging to them"
    b) there - means "over there" as in location
    c) they're - short for "they are"

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oefarmy2005 View Post
    It's not a good article if you are looking at hard facts, and whatever the author does, he shows almost zero numerical support, but the message is pretty accurate, and it makes me lean that has assessment in it's core is right. 82Games says the team production with Love and Rubio on/off the court is very close.
    I think you're right. And I think the point you're making is the same as the author. Hard stats just don't do a good enough job of showing how much a player is helping his team win. Being elite offensively but watching players drive by you like you're playing defense in an all star game doesn't help your team.

    There needs to be more information collection on the defensive side of the ball. If an offensive player hits an insane shot nobody is discredited on defense. If you let your player drive right by you there should be a negative effect to your score. The best defenders would be the players who keep the offender in front of them and don't foul.

    This is a very simplistic approach, I get that. Hawk has made the argument that both offense and defense are equally as important to a championship team. If that is the case, why do we spend 90% of our time talking offense and only 10% talking defense?
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    Vancouver is the best city in North America and that's not just my opinion we win awards for it all the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    K Love is basically TT with a shot and better passing.

  9. #9
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    the steal can also be overrated. Iverson was a league leader in steals. Monta Ellis gets a lot of steals. Neither is a good defender at all.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oefarmy2005 View Post
    It's not a good article if you are looking at hard facts, and whatever the author does, he shows almost zero numerical support, but the message is pretty accurate, and it makes me lean that has assessment in it's core is right. 82Games says the team production with Love and Rubio on/off the court is very close.

    look at their simple ratings too. Remember, every starter is getting credit for playing next to Love. Also look at the lineup splits. You can't find a lineup with a + in it without Love. You can with every other starter out of it.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  11. #11
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    The problem with steels is that if you miss, it leaves your man wide open. I'm not completely disagreeing with the article. I believe that it is correct at its core, but you need to look at all aspects.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trwood12 View Post
    The problem with steels is that if you miss, it leaves your man wide open. I'm not completely disagreeing with the article. I believe that it is correct at its core, but you need to look at all aspects.
    exactly. I mean, we have the difference on our own team. Rubio gambles, but doesn't put himself out of position for recovery too often, so there is some validity in this article regarding a player like Rubio. But Brewer, and especially Martin, gamble themselves out of the play many times, so their steals are basically makeups for them ****ing us up on rotations 3 times a game.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye15 View Post
    the steal can also be overrated. Iverson was a league leader in steals. Monta Ellis gets a lot of steals. Neither is a good defender at all.
    I don't think anyone is saying the number of steals is how to judge a defender. Overall, though, getting steals shows basketball IQ, effort on the defensive end, and other aspects which point towards a good defender. Steals doesn't mean a good defender in all cases but odds are it points in the right direction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye15 View Post
    exactly. I mean, we have the difference on our own team. Rubio gambles, but doesn't put himself out of position for recovery too often, so there is some validity in this article regarding a player like Rubio. But Brewer, and especially Martin, gamble themselves out of the play many times, so their steals are basically makeups for them ****ing us up on rotations 3 times a game.
    Gambling on the defensive side doesn't show a negative stat in Brewers column. From time to time he gets a steal and an easy bucket. Between steals, though, he gambles and loses over and over and over and tests our help defense. This is exactly why I posted up above that more info needs to be collected on the defensive end. If I was playing for stat lines I'd go for steals, too. If I was playing to win the game I'd cautiously try for the steal while my priority is keeping my man in front of me.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    Vancouver is the best city in North America and that's not just my opinion we win awards for it all the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by JustinTime View Post
    K Love is basically TT with a shot and better passing.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by WSU Tony View Post
    I don't think anyone is saying the number of steals is how to judge a defender. Overall, though, getting steals shows basketball IQ, effort on the defensive end, and other aspects which point towards a good defender. Steals doesn't mean a good defender in all cases but odds are it points in the right direction.
    Every steal means something different. They can't be quantified without context.

    Gambling on the defensive side doesn't show a negative stat in Brewers column. From time to time he gets a steal and an easy bucket. Between steals, though, he gambles and loses over and over and over and tests our help defense. This is exactly why I posted up above that more info needs to be collected on the defensive end. If I was playing for stat lines I'd go for steals, too. If I was playing to win the game I'd cautiously try for the steal while my priority is keeping my man in front of me.
    Yep, you nailed it. When you play defense like Brewer, for every steal you get, you also screwed our team defense by taking yourself out of the play. So, in that sense, this article is crap, because we know THIS specific player is not creating extra points with his steals.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye15 View Post
    look at their simple ratings too. Remember, every starter is getting credit for playing next to Love. Also look at the lineup splits. You can't find a lineup with a + in it without Love. You can with every other starter out of it.
    I have addressed this in another thread. Rubio is playing against much, much better competition on a nightly basis than Love does - there is no arguing with that. If you need me to list the players each faces, i'll be happy to do so. Now Love hasn't been playing great the last month or so, our winning percentage hasn't changed much either because Ricky has stepped it up. No doubt, Love is the single most important factor on this team, his and Rubio's impact on the Wolves' success is not as far apart as you like to make it out to be.
    Last edited by Oefarmy2005; 04-10-2014 at 10:05 AM.


    PSD Grammar Lesson #1:

    a) their - stands for "belonging to them"
    b) there - means "over there" as in location
    c) they're - short for "they are"

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