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  1. #1
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    500 Home Run Club

    Pujols is inching closer to becoming the first player in 5 years since Sheffield to reach the 500 home run club.

    Ruth was the first to reach it in 1929

    Then 11 years later Jimmie Foxx joined him.

    By 1960, Ott made three.

    Five guys joined the club in the 60's (Williams, Mays, Mantle, Matthews, and Aaron)

    The 70's saw four guys join the club (Banks, Killebrew, Robinson, McCovey)

    The 80's saw Jackson and Schmidt

    And the 90's just saw McGwire and Murry


    Mark McGwire being the first known PED user to make this list

    Then the 00's happened......9 guys, 3 in 07 alone
    Bonds, Sosa, Palmerio, Griffey, Thomas, A-Rod, Thome, Manny, Sheffield

    So an obvious blow-up in home runs in that decade.

    Pujols will be the first in five years....something that from 1929-1999, saw just 16 guys in 71 seasons, or one player ever 4.4 years.


    Pujols will almost certainly join the list

    Here are the active players behind him:
    Dunn - 442 - won't make it I imagine
    Giambi - 438 - probably his last season
    Konerko - 434 - probably his last season
    Ortiz - 432 - doubtful, but he could play another 3 seasons and make it. I'll bet he won't, but I won't be surprised if he does.
    Soriano - 406 - I think he's going to be a bench player by next season.
    Beltre - 376 - has a real shot, as healthy as he has been
    Miggy - 366 - just remain healthy, and he'll for sure do it
    Beltran - 358 - probably only has 3-4 seasons left, I can see 400, maybe 425, not 500
    A-Ram - 354 - outside chance, but I doubt he plays long enough.....even if he can average 15 home runs a season the rest of the away with aging, that's a long time to continue on
    Tex - 341 - doubt it
    Hunter - 317 - won't
    Fielder - 285 - might, too far away to tell

    And nobody else is over 200 that you really think could do it with any certainty.



    How many players do you think will hit their 500th from 2010-2019....we are getting our first in 2014 (probably).

  2. #2
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    Miggy will this decade I imagine, I think Beltre has a shot too. But I don't see anyone else reaching it before 2020.

  3. #3
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    I guess Fielder could average about 36 home runs a season over the next 6 seasons and reach it.

    Miggy has to average 22.3 per year over the next six
    20.7 for Beltre over the next six (if he plays that long)

    And if Ortiz can give three more solid years, he'll be close.

  4. #4
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    I give Beltre credit as he has defied father time when it comes to the third base spot offensively but obviously his play over the next 2 seasons will define how long his next contract is. That's a tough position for guys older than 33 or 34 to be that good with the bat.

    At some point, after this contract is up (or maybe before then) the team that has his services may have to think about a position change to maintain his offense.

    It's doable, especially if hits 30 homers again this year (like he did last year), but i'm not sure if he will play long enough to get it done.
    Last edited by metswon69; 04-08-2014 at 11:03 PM.

  5. #5
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    Really hard to see anybody but Cabrera and Fielder reaching 500 by the end of the decade.
    Last edited by metswon69; 04-08-2014 at 11:26 PM. Reason: Trolling

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    I give Beltre credit as he has defied father time when it comes to the third base spot offensively but obviously his play over the next 2 seasons will define how long his next contract is. That's a tough position for guys older than 33 or 34 to be that good with the bat.

    At some point, after this contract is up (or maybe before then) the team that has his services may have to think about a position change to maintain his offense.

    It's doable, especially if hits 30 homers again this year (like he did last year), but i'm not sure if he will play long enough to get it done.
    Beltre I think will be at 400 by the end of the year.

  7. #7
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    Thanks metwons69. Now everybody is going to think I can't grammar.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by giants73756 View Post
    Thanks metwons69. Now everybody is going to think I can't grammar.
    Better now?

  9. #9
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    Thank you

  10. #10
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    Honestly at the pace he was on since his rookie season I used to be confident thinking he would one day break the record completely.

    The drop off has been sudden. Don't think he's done racking them up but, he hit a stand still I didn't see coming so fast.

  11. #11
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    500 Home Run Club

    Out of active players?

    Dunn, Soriano, Miggy, Fielder, Ortiz, Beltre, and maybe Beltran if he finds the fountain of youth.

    Miggy is well, Miggy.

    Beltre has to be consistent with offensive numbers.

    Ortiz is strictly a hitter so I would presume he ages a little better and if he does get there, it'll probably be as a part time player.

    Fielder if he starts raking in Texas and hits maybe 30 a year.

    Dunn I think can get there easily. He's only 34 and he is only 58 homers away. I think he could very well go over 500 come 2016. Averaging roughly 25 homers over the next few years sounds completely plausible for a guy who only hits homers.

    If Beltran manages to hit 100 homers over his tenure with the Yankees then he'll have a legitimate shot however, that's implausible too.

    Soriano is possible. He's 93 away and he's 38 years old. He'll play a full season and I think he'll have about 70 to go come his age 39 season and by then, if he can still swing a bat, he'll inch closer and closer until he ultimately hits 500 as a part time player.

  12. #12
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    I'm going with Pujols and Cabrera as the only ones. I'd like to see Beltre do it, but I think he'll end up in the 460 range.

    Oh and I think you mean 1950 for Ott or not I see what you did there now.

  13. #13
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    Pujols, Dunn, Ortiz, and Miggy are the obvious close ones. Beltre is 35. If he were to play until he is 40,he is going to have to hit around 30 HR a season. He has had plenty of seasons hitting under 30 HR and seeing him do it aging make me think he will miss it.
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  14. #14
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    I wouldn't count Dunn out so quickly. If he managed another 30 HR season this year he will be at 470 at the end of this season. He will probably get a 1 year deal somewhere after this season and inch closer to 500.

    Also Otiz's option vests in 2016 if he has at least 425 PA in 2015. He could easily be around for 2 more seasons after this one. I have a feeling he will get close enough to 500 that he will stick around and the Red Sox will welcome it.
    Last edited by Yankees 1903; 04-09-2014 at 02:02 AM.

    Masahiro Tanaka

    11-1| 99.2 IP| 10.20 K/9| 1.44 BB/9| 0.90 HR/9| 1.99 ERA| 2.70 FIP| 2.32 xFIP| 2.9 fWAR

  15. #15
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    Dunn has hit 75 home runs the last two seasons.

    Of course, that comes with a 108 OPS+, 411 strike outs, and only 225 base hits lol

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