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  1. #796
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
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    19,497
    I'm not following. What Buster says makes perfect sense.

    Saves cause arbitration costs to spike. A pitcher could be Craig Kimbrel, but without saves he'll never make more than $5MM in arbitration. And it'll take 3 years to get there. With even 15 saves per season entering arbitration, that same pitcher can make $5MM-$10MM-$15MM through the arb process.

    The arb system is thoroughly broken for relievers. It behooves the Phillies to prevent Giles from earning saves. Otherwise, they would have sold Papelbon to a team like the White Sox or Astros for nothing but salary relief before those clubs signed relievers.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  2. #797
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    15,838
    That's pretty bad. Even if they dealt Papelbon and ate 80% of his contract it would cover the difference in the Giles arbitration when he is eligible.

  3. #798
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
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    That's not true in the linear scenario (i.e. Giles continues to pitch at this level without injury). If he started closing now, he would earn well over $15MM in his final year of eligibility. More if he's a Super-2 (I think he's on that track). Dealing Papelbon might cover arb year 1 at best and that's with accepting a Powerball ticket in return.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

    Follow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam

  4. #799
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
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    Of course, Giles is going to earn some saves soon, so we're not really discussing the two real options. The club could pull a Rays and hire guys like Balfour to keep Giles in the eighth, but that's not a Philly move.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

    Follow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam

  5. #800
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    15,838
    Quote Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
    That's not true in the linear scenario (i.e. Giles continues to pitch at this level without injury). If he started closing now, he would earn well over $15MM in his final year of eligibility. More if he's a Super-2 (I think he's on that track). Dealing Papelbon might cover arb year 1 at best and that's with accepting a Powerball ticket in return.
    Im really just talking about his 1st year of arbitration eligibility not every year. Say they ate 80% and saved close to 3 million just this season (not factoring in his vesting option) that 3 million wouldn't be the difference in his first year arbitration salary regardless of his track record with saves considering players generally don't make a large sum their 1st year. Regardless, they aren't making decisions on Papelbon based on Giles and his arbitration (I know thats not what hes saying). If it were a money issue they'd deal him for nothing and get no major spec in return like you said before and save 26 million potentially.

  6. #801
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    17,288
    We really need some 2nd base options, Utley looks awful.


    Authentic Phillies, Eagles , Sixers fan
    - I love Ray Lewis.

    "Do not scorn a weak cub, he may become a brutal tiger"

  7. #802
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    15,838
    No internal options right now and if Utley stays healthy he will keep triggering his options.

  8. #803
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    I rather see Hernandez play there over Utley right now, (why did I posted here?) LOL


    Authentic Phillies, Eagles , Sixers fan
    - I love Ray Lewis.

    "Do not scorn a weak cub, he may become a brutal tiger"

  9. #804
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    1,143
    From what I understand, Scott Kingery could be on the fast track to the big leagues... ala Aaron Nola. 3 years of very good hitting in Pac-12... 2 batting titles there. Fingers crossed.

  10. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by phillies1980 View Post
    From what I understand, Scott Kingery could be on the fast track to the big leagues... ala Aaron Nola. 3 years of very good hitting in Pac-12... 2 batting titles there. Fingers crossed.
    Yup, they say he was a steal in the 2nd round and that he is mature enough to only stay one year in the minors, I loved that pick.


    Authentic Phillies, Eagles , Sixers fan
    - I love Ray Lewis.

    "Do not scorn a weak cub, he may become a brutal tiger"

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