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  1. #1
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    2014 Red Sox predictions (also Al East and AL)

    Is this usually a mod thing to post this? In case it's not:

    I'm going with major player predictions as well as runs scored/given up and W-L for the Sox. Also W-L for the Division, and playoff predictions. Probably be ready to post in a couple of days.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  2. #2
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    94-68 Rays
    92-70 Sox (WC)
    90-72 Yankees (WC)
    83-79 O's
    75-87 Jays

    Tigers 94-68

    Rangers 91-71

    Nationals 94-68
    Braves 92-70 (WC)

    Cardinals 96-66

    Dodgers 95-67
    Giants 89-73 (WC)

    I've been itching for a Sox vs Yanks playoff series (or 1 game playoff) since 2004....

  3. #3
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    AL East

    Rays 93
    Yanks 91
    Red Sox 89
    O's 81
    Jays 74

    Tigers, Rangers, Rays WC: Yanks, Angels: AL Winner: Tigers

    WS: Cards vs Tigers (hey wait, we've seen this before, right?) Tigers win

    In 2013, 853 runs scored and 658 allowed; In 2014 -55 less runs scored, +57 more runs allowed - that's 89 wins using pythagorean. (798 scored, 715 allowed).

    Sox off to poor start: 9-14

    Plus seasons compared to 2013:

    Pedroia: OPS .810; +.8 rWAR
    XB: OPS .768; 3.1 rWAR nice 2nd half -15 trot/yr on d
    WMB: OPS .788; 2.9 rWAR (good power; -20 Rtot/yr or worse on D) The reason he can't stay at 3B for us is maybe more his fielding than his below average OBP.
    Lester: 4.4 rWAR 3.53 ERA 16-7
    Workman: 15 starts 4.24 ERA 9-6
    Mujica: makes mincemeat of our closers/set-up guys from last year not named Koji. Huge first half.

    Negative seasons compared to 2013:

    Ortiz: .270/.370/.485 OPS+ 120; 21 HR: 4.9 rWAR -> 2.3
    Napoli: -.7 rWAR (3.5) (lower OBP and D)
    Gomes, AJP, Ross: all slightly lesser seasons
    SV: .260/.320/.370 (injuries too). 5.8 rWAR last year drops to 2.7 this year
    Buchholz: 4.3 rWAR to 2.0 rWAR. ERA in the 4's, injuries
    Lackey: He proved himself last year, too many beers and too few crunches in the off season: 2.8 rWAR -> 2.0 rWAR.
    JBJ & GS combined will be: 4.1 rWAR (mostly D value) - no match for Ellsburys 5.7
    Last edited by bagwell368; 03-31-2014 at 08:03 AM.

  4. #4
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    AL East

    Redsox 95-67 World Series rematch with Cards again and Win again

    Rays: 90-72

    Skanks: 89-72

    O's: 88-74

    Jays: 70-92

  5. #5
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    People are always loving the Rays. I don't think they have done much to go over-the-top at all. They lose Price midseason I think as well. I think we get the Al East and Tigers vs Red Sox again for the best part of the playoff's last year rematch.
    Signature removed because **** is a dodging filter

  6. #6
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    Rays 96 - 66
    Red Sox 90 - 72
    Orioles 88 - 73
    Yankees 88 - 73
    Blue Jays 73 - 89

    The Detroit Tigers defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the 2014 World Series.
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    French Canadian Eugenie Bouchard

  7. #7
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    Red Sox 93
    Rays 90
    Yankees 85
    O's 84
    Jays 76

    We have a lot of players that could regress a bit, but I look at the other teams and am not impressed. I can't help but be optimistic that Grady gives us that OF bat we needed, and WMB contacts has me a lot less negative about him. Rays will be good and in the race, but they're no different than the low 90's win team they have been the last several years. They have regression candidates from last year, but will also probably get random great performances from someone like they do every year.

    Yankees have so many holes and are so old, there will be injuries and their depth sucks. Everything has to go right for them to win the division. People like to point out their 85 wins last year, but they significantly out performed their run differential. I can already see the criticism over spending a billion dollars and not outperforming last years team.

    O's are all over the map, but I just don't like their team that much. They just seem above average. I don't know who half the pitchers are in the Jays rotation, if they do well this year it will be a miracle.

    Royals, Angels, Rays (wc), Rangers (wc)

    The central is terrible again. Tigers are worse and they have coasted the last few years during the season. I think this is the year they go down, I just wish there was a better team to pick to beat them. Royals is just gut feel as the team to beat them over the Indians. I think the Angels get some bounce back performances this year. Rangers already have a ton of injuries. I think they barely survive the 1st half, but get hot and get the 2nd wild card at the end of the year.
    Last edited by -Lavigne43-; 03-30-2014 at 08:08 PM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Lavigne43- View Post
    Red Sox 93
    Rays 90
    Yankees 85
    O's 84
    Jays 76

    Yankees have so many holes and are so old, there will be injuries and their depth sucks. Everything has to go right for them to win the division. People like to point out their 85 wins last year, but they significantly out performed their run differential. I can already see the criticism over spending a billion dollars and not outperforming last years team.
    Yanks have added some players of consequence on offense, I expect somewhat better performance (although they will need to deal for a SS or just sign Drew). But the SP's? I think they will be much better there.

    Sox have more than a few players that can and will regress.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  9. #9
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    AL East: Boston, Tampa, NY Yankees, Toronto, Baltimore
    AL Central: Kansas City, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota
    AL West: Texas, Seattle, Oakland, LA Angels, Houston
    NL East: Washington, Atlanta, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Miami
    NL Central: St.Louis, Cincinatti, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Chicago Cubs
    NL West: La Dogers, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego, Colorado

    Playoffs: Detroit over Tampa in Wild Card Game
    AL: Boston over Kansas City Texas over Detroit Texas over Boston
    Playoffs: Cincinatti over San Francisco in Wild Card Game
    NL: LA Dodgers over Cincinatti Washington over St.Louis LA Dogers over Washington

    World Series: Texas over LA Dodgers
    Favourite Teams:

    Boston Red Sox: 46-52, games this week vs. Blue Jays (4), Rays (3)
    Indianapolis Colts: Good draft and off-season so far.
    Looking for new NBA team to cheer for
    Ottawa Senators: 37-31-14, season over, free agency begins this week.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Soxfan85 View Post
    AL East

    Redsox 95-67 World Series rematch with Cards again and Win again

    Rays: 90-72

    Skanks: 89-72 I assume the Yankees will be pissed that they won't win the division and will thus refuse to play the last game (your Yankees record only indicates 161 games played sir)

    O's: 88-74

    Jays: 70-92


    As far as my predictions:

    AL East

    Rays (94-68)
    Red Sox (91-71)
    Yankees (86-76)
    Orioles (83-79)
    Blue Jays (74-88)

    AL East - Rays
    AL Central - Tigers
    AL West - Rangers
    AL WC1 - Red Sox
    AL WC2 - Angels

    Red Sox over Angels in the 1 game playoff.

    ALDS

    Tigers over Red Sox
    Rays over Rangers

    ALCS

    Tigers over Rays

    WS

    Cardinals over Tigers (according to most pundits, a likely match up.)

    There's just too much that has to happen in order for the Red Sox to repeat.

    WMB is hit or miss and although I'm happy he bought some new contacts, I just still don't like what he brings to the plate. His defense is suspect and he k's too much for my liking, what Jenny Dell sees in him I don't know.

    Xander is the real deal and I'm excited to see how he does with a full season in the majors. Offensively, he's somewhat of an upgrade over Drew. Defensively, Drew was pretty stellar.

    Pedroia should perform at a higher level. He injured his thumb on the first day of last season diving into first. A fully healthy Pedroia should bode well for better offensive production.

    Napoli surprised us with his defense at first and many stated that he was at or near the top of the list regarding defensive play last year. I expect him to have nice power numbers and I hope that he can somewhat effectively protect Ortiz.

    I like the signing of AP to fill in as a one year gap, however, I'm really excited to see Christian Vazquez come up. If he hits for 225-250 and plays the defense that scouts have been buzzing about, count me in.

    Ortiz kind of scares me. I'm not bothered by his anemic spring training numbers, but feel that he's getting up there in age and though I don't have any stats to say that the guy is declining, it's bound to happen sooner or later, right, right?! I predict less gaudy stats than last year.

    The outfield situation is a little dicey. Victorino is already on the DL before the season starts and feel that he will be on and off of the DL this year. I'm assuming he's giving up being a switch hitter? I'm not expecting much from the Flyin' Hawaiian.

    Sizemore is a low risk-high reward type signing and right now it's paying off (albeit a spring training and 1 game into the regular season.) I hope his comeback is productive as he was a pleasure to watch back in the day. If, which is a big if, he can stay relatively healthy, the Red Sox have a productive outfielder - something they desperately need.

    The rest of the outfield is kind of meh. I like Nava, Gomes, and Carp but feel that our outfield is one of the weak spots of this team. I never wanted the Red Sox to dole out a crap ton of money to Ellsbury, but the Red Sox will miss his production.

    Uehara is due to regress. I love the high fives (reminds me of the constant pats on the top of Adrian Beltre's head ), but he pitched a lot of innings and he's no spring chicken either.

    As far as the starting pitching, I believe that the same questions persist:

    How many starts will Buchholz make before he gets injured?
    How will Lackey perform? (I enjoyed the redemption tour.)
    How will Doubront perform? I'm glad he came into spring training in better shape.
    How will Peavy perform? Will he pitch like he did when he first came over in the trade? I hope he doesn't pitch like he did in the postseason, yikes.

    Oh well, I'm just happy baseball is back. Go Red Sox.

  11. #11
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    91 wins wc

    Lester extension is done before next season

    Pedroia .310avg 25hr

    Sizemore stays relatively healthy the entire season plays about 120 games

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