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  1. #1
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    What do you guys think of Bryce Cotton?

    I don't follow College BB much but heard he's a really good player? Thoughts on rather or not Boston would be a good fit.
    20+ years from now I and others will look back @WMXXX and say remember when Brock Beat The Undertaker? More people will remember his only loss more than those 21 Straight wins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BSF101 View Post
    I don't follow College BB much but heard he's a really good player? Thoughts on rather or not Boston would be a good fit.
    If we were planning on cleaning house on our PG's (not even talking Rondo) he might be a good pick up as a cmp invite. But make no mistake, he's a project, might be his 3rd year as a pro before he'd be even as good as a good back-up - at best. Most likely he doesn't make it in the US - next year. Maybe if he goes off shore he could in a few years.

    He has a good shot and if he was 4" taller might make a credible #2, but he's a #1 sized player, but lacks a number of PG skills.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 03-19-2014 at 11:09 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  3. #3
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    In the right situation he might find a role in the NBA. For him, the Paul Pressey route (undrafted) might be best so he can pick and choose the situation he wants to pursue his dream in. He has an odd mix of a skill set that would probably suit him well as a combo guard but his physical build doesn't suit the position.
    Chris Mannix ‏@ChrisMannixSI • 14m •  More
    SI: Statistics suggest Joel Embiid will fully recover from foot surgery. But it could be 9-12 months before he plays http://bit.ly/1qwZuIB

  4. #4
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    Do you guys think he would make a good back up for Rondo? Just saying what if Rondo goes down again with another injury?
    20+ years from now I and others will look back @WMXXX and say remember when Brock Beat The Undertaker? More people will remember his only loss more than those 21 Straight wins.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    If we were planning on cleaning house on our PG's (not even talking Rondo) he might be a good pick up as a cmp invite. But make no mistake, he's a project, might be his 3rd year as a pro before he'd be even as good as a good back-up - at best. Most likely he doesn't make it in the US - next year. Maybe if he goes off shore he could in a few years.

    He has a good shot and if he was 4" taller might make a credible #2, but he's a #1 sized player, but lacks a number of PG skills.
    Being a PC fan, I've enjoyed watching him. He plays nearly all their minutes and has been able to produce pretty well. Obviously NBA is a different story though.

    Anyways, he's not really a project. Either he sticks in the NBA or he doesn't. At his age, most players aren't really "projects". Also, your 3rd year qualification is when most rookies start to hit their peak. So not really different from any other rookie in that sense.

    Also, I disagree that he lacks a number of PG skills, or at least as it concerns to playing in the NBA. Have you looked at Isaiah Thomas college numbers? (note spelling, not HOFer Isiah) That's actually a pretty good comp for him if he reaches his ceiling. Thomas had 1 less year in college but their last years in college saw similar assist rates (Cotton's assist rate per KenPom is 34.3% versus Isaiah's 32.7% assist rate in his last year). Both also had nearly the same assist rates in their 2nd to last year in college (around 18-19%) and witnessed a jump in their final year. The TS%'s are nearly identical as well- 56.0% for Cotton, 56.2% for Isaiah in their last years. Cotton's also got a few inches on Isaiah so he's got that going for him as well. His 3point shot is also better than Isaiah's was in college (37% vs. 35% for Isaiah) One big difference is the steal rates- Cotton's isn't so great. Perhaps a must for a player of his size.

    Of course there's also some big key differences- Isaiah has more speed and is probably more athletic as well. However, just because of their size, it doesn't mean both can't find a place in the league (well Isaiah has already found his place). I doubt Cotton realizes Thomas' production (no way he avg's 20 ppg in the NBA) but I think he should be able to get a roster spot on an NBA team. But we'll see- as a pick like he's likely to be, you need the playing time first before you can prove yourself (a la Jeremy Lin for example) but fortunately for him, teams are getting smarter in this regard and players like Lillard and Thomas who would've gotten no chance years ago are getting their chance now because teams look at the production as well instead of just the measurables.

    FYI, Lillard is also another interesting comp. His senior year was flat out superior to Cotton's (higher TS%, higher 3pt%) but like Cotton, he wasn't much of a passer either (27.1 assist rate per KenPom in his senior year). Lillard has obviously managed to turn out fine in the NBA. I think a big mistake people make is looking at someone's passing if they are short and judging them based on that. There are a few examples of players like Thomas and Lillard who weren't the greatest passers in college but turned out just fine in the NBA.

    Also, in watching Cotton, he is literally the only player on PC that can pass decently. He's also got good work coming off screens- Cooley runs a flex offense that includes a lot of motion and players coming off screens. Both those things would bode well for Cotton in the NBA. He's definitely worth a flier in the 2nd round or as an undrafted player.

    Unfortunately, can't find him on one of the models that projects college players based on similar inputs to the system the Mavs use.
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by BSF101 View Post
    Do you guys think he would make a good back up for Rondo? Just saying what if Rondo goes down again with another injury?
    I'm not sure he is a "better" option than Pressey is?
    Chris Mannix ‏@ChrisMannixSI • 14m •  More
    SI: Statistics suggest Joel Embiid will fully recover from foot surgery. But it could be 9-12 months before he plays http://bit.ly/1qwZuIB

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    Being a PC fan, I've enjoyed watching him. He plays nearly all their minutes and has been able to produce pretty well. Obviously NBA is a different story though.

    Anyways, he's not really a project. Either he sticks in the NBA or he doesn't. At his age, most players aren't really "projects". Also, your 3rd year qualification is when most rookies start to hit their peak. So not really different from any other rookie in that sense.
    When he showed up in college, he was a set shooter and a jump shooter. He's grown as a player. He's going to have to grow a lot more to be an effective NBA player. It's possible, that's the most I can say for him.

    Also, I disagree that he lacks a number of PG skills, or at least as it concerns to playing in the NBA. Have you looked at Isaiah Thomas college numbers? (note spelling, not HOFer Isiah) That's actually a pretty good comp for him if he reaches his ceiling. Thomas had 1 less year in college but their last years in college saw similar assist rates (Cotton's assist rate per KenPom is 34.3% versus Isaiah's 32.7% assist rate in his last year). Both also had nearly the same assist rates in their 2nd to last year in college (around 18-19%) and witnessed a jump in their final year. The TS%'s are nearly identical as well- 56.0% for Cotton, 56.2% for Isaiah in their last years. Cotton's also got a few inches on Isaiah so he's got that going for him as well. His 3point shot is also better than Isaiah's was in college (37% vs. 35% for Isaiah) One big difference is the steal rates- Cotton's isn't so great. Perhaps a must for a player of his size.
    I haven't studied it as closely as you have - but what was the difference in the competition of Cotton vs Thomas? Cotton isn't going to be drafted IMO, if so, then that's a number of GM's that don't think Cotton is an NBA player - or at least not worth a pick - hence, he'll be a risk or a project if he gets into the NBA.

    Of course there's also some big key differences- Isaiah has more speed and is probably more athletic as well. However, just because of their size, it doesn't mean both can't find a place in the league (well Isaiah has already found his place). I doubt Cotton realizes Thomas' production (no way he avg's 20 ppg in the NBA) but I think he should be able to get a roster spot on an NBA team. But we'll see- as a pick like he's likely to be, you need the playing time first before you can prove yourself (a la Jeremy Lin for example) but fortunately for him, teams are getting smarter in this regard and players like Lillard and Thomas who would've gotten no chance years ago are getting their chance now because teams look at the production as well instead of just the measurables.
    We'll see, don't think Cotton is getting drafted. OTOH he's an excellent and entertaining college player, hope PC and Cotton goes a long way in the tourney.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Opalmerr View Post
    I'm not sure he is a "better" option than Pressey is?
    Right, and right now Pressey is a 3rd PG at best.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    When he showed up in college, he was a set shooter and a jump shooter. He's grown as a player. He's going to have to grow a lot more to be an effective NBA player. It's possible, that's the most I can say for him.
    Right, obviously he's going to have to get better as a player to stick in the NBA. That's the case with all rookies though. Very rarely is there a rookie who stays the same for his career and if so, that rookie most likely flames out. But you're right, he's grown quite a bit as a player. Personally, think he could be really good with the Spurs, who set a lot of screens and use cuts and motion- somewhat similar to what PC does.


    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I haven't studied it as closely as you have - but what was the difference in the competition of Cotton vs Thomas? Cotton isn't going to be drafted IMO, if so, then that's a number of GM's that don't think Cotton is an NBA player - or at least not worth a pick - hence, he'll be a risk or a project if he gets into the NBA.
    Thomas played in the Pac-10 (or Pac-12 now I guess, stupid name changes). It's been awhile since the Pac-10 has been a really power conference and so I don't know that Thomas faced any tougher competition than Cotton has faced. I'd say the two leagues are probably similar with maybe the Pac-10 being more heavy at the top with Arizona and UCLA (as opposed to Nova and Georgetown). But similar leagues. One difference though is that Cotton also played 3 years in the old Big East, that included Cuse, Pittsburgh, Lousiville, etc. So that was definitely tougher competition.

    I think we're just using the term project differently. Or at least see it differently. I don't disagree with you that Cotton may not be drafted or if he does, he'll go very late in the 2nd round. NBAdraft.net had him as a late 2nd rounder for awhile but now he's not on their board. Either way, he's going to be in the last few picks of the draft or won't be drafted. And one of the reasons I used the Isaiah Thomas comp from earlier was because he was a 2nd round pick and actually the last pick of the entire draft (60th). And again, despite being the 60th pick, Thomas actually came into the league playing pretty well- 17.6 PER in his first year. So certainly not a project. Or considering where he was picked, not much of a risk either. I'd say the same would be true for Cotton, either he comes into the league and impresses right away or he washes out and doesn't get a shot in the NBA. For him, opportunity might be what determines if he sticks or not.

    Also, as I said earlier, most rookies do start to turn the corner in their 3rd year so if you want to call that a project, I guess. But I don't see that being different from any other rookie. Again, going back to Thomas, it's his 3rd year now and he's at a career high in PER and Win Shares.

    So I guess what I'm saying is that, yes it'll take him about 3 years to reach his peak if he's able to stick. But that's not really different from any other rookie. If I were to call a rookie a project, I'd guess it'd take them longer than the norm to peak (maybe 5-6 years, a la Tyson Chandler). As for him not being drafted and so him being a risk/project, I think he wouldn't get drafted for reasons other than whether he's a project or not. For example, size- that won't change. Age- he's a senior, which means less room for growth and development. The way I see it, he either gets his opportunity now and is able to make the most of it. Or if he doesn't, he ends up abroad and probably never plays in the NBA.

    I also think there are some organizations that are getting smarter and value college production a bit more as opposed to potential and all the measurables. The Celtics are definitely one of them (see Sullinger, Olynick). And I know they are an analytically savy organization, with a pretty massive analytics staff (must've been over 10 Celts analytics employees at the SSAC). Same goes for the Rockets. I wouldn't be surprised to see either take a shot on Cotton. I think the one thing everyone will be wondering and this will decide if he's an NBA player or not- does he have the speed to get by players at the NBA level.

    I want to check with Statman or Vasharo on what their models see Cotton as (Vasharo's is probably better since his model has a scout element to it). I know they use similar inputs in their model as James Brocato, who got hired by the Mavs. And I believe his draft model was similar to someone elses (forgot the name), who also got hired by a team. Eh, maybe I'll just try asking the analytics guys and see if I get anything.

    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    We'll see, don't think Cotton is getting drafted. OTOH he's an excellent and entertaining college player, hope PC and Cotton goes a long way in the tourney.
    I'd agree but I do think there's a shot he goes in that 58-60 range, basically among the last few picks.

    Same here. I'm biased when it comes to Cotton but I think he's got a shot if he gets the minutes in the NBA. And hoping PC goes on a run in the tourney. Tough 1st round matchup but PC has some traits of a Giant Killer- good on the offensive boards and play at a slow pace. The zone could frustrate UNC who likes the up-tempo game, in the same way it frustrated Creighton in the BE Final. UNC also doesn't really limit 3PTAs, so if PC can have a good shooting day from downtown, that's another advantage they could exploit. UNC also doesn't force that many turnovers either if I remember correctly. Pretty decent 1st round matchup considering the seedings but Iowa St. would be a different animal (and haven't really looked at the #'s yet)
    Patriots Forum HOF Class of 2011

  10. #10
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    He isn't getting drafted.

    He isn't even a top 25 SENIOR.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corey View Post
    He isn't getting drafted.

    He isn't even a top 25 SENIOR.
    What makes you say that?
    20+ years from now I and others will look back @WMXXX and say remember when Brock Beat The Undertaker? More people will remember his only loss more than those 21 Straight wins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Corey View Post
    He isn't getting drafted.

    He isn't even a top 25 SENIOR.
    What? Have you even watched him play?

    Also, go compare his stats to Isaiah Thomas when he was in his last year. Granted Thomas was a Junior but their stats were pretty similar. (To be fair, Thomas did go 60th). Anyways, not arguing he's gonna be drafted because he likely won't. Thomas got more exposure for one. But not a top 25 Senior? Ok....
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    What? Have you even watched him play?

    Also, go compare his stats to Isaiah Thomas when he was in his last year. Granted Thomas was a Junior but their stats were pretty similar. (To be fair, Thomas did go 60th). Anyways, not arguing he's gonna be drafted because he likely won't. Thomas got more exposure for one. But not a top 25 Senior? Ok....
    39th Senior:


    one mock has him drafted at 56:


    These and many others do not have him being drafted:


    So mixed bag, if he is drafted it looks like it post #50. Either way he's unlikely ever to be an impact NBA player or regular rotation player. 11th man tops.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    What? Have you even watched him play?

    Also, go compare his stats to Isaiah Thomas when he was in his last year. Granted Thomas was a Junior but their stats were pretty similar. (To be fair, Thomas did go 60th). Anyways, not arguing he's gonna be drafted because he likely won't. Thomas got more exposure for one. But not a top 25 Senior? Ok....
    In terms of draft projection? Yes. He's not even a top 25 senior.

  15. #15
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    What do you guys think of Bryce Cotton?

    I think he goes off on UNC and PC gets the big win
    Quote Originally Posted by Bullseyed View Post
    I kind of agree with this, but then we'd end up will BB in a helicopter trying to fly over random football fields all over the country.
    Big Brother is watching

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