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  1. #1
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    2014 Projections - Maybe it's not as bad as we think?

    This year I thought I would do something I've always wanted to do - project each player's performance on the Jays roster, and use that information to estimate how the team will finish. So this year, I finally did it. And maybe, just maybe, this is why the Jays front office isn't freaking out yet about the Jays team for 2014. Sure, it could be better, but maybe it's not that bad.

    I think we will all agree the Jays project to have an above average offence, and a below average pitching staff. This is reflected in my projections, and based on 2013 numbers, this would place the Jays 6th in runs scored and 9th in ERA - an improvement of 2 spots in runs scored and 3 spots in ERA. I think with a healthy Bautista and Reyes, no JPA, and JJ in the rotation, these small jumps are possible. One criticism would be I don't have any pitcher really blowing up this year. I have Romero in at a 5.04 ERA in 4 starts, but that's the highest. It's possible for a Happ, Drabek or anyone else to pitch to a 6+ ERA.

    I validated a lot of this through RotoChamp's consolidated projections, and used it to help calculate some information for AB and averages on players I am unfamiliar with, like Erik Kratz. I also used FanGraphs to validate runs/AB and wins/GS using some of the formulas they have. One thing I did notice is either my team runs scored estimate is low or my team OPS is high. I'm going to guess it's the latter, but the two numbers don't correlate well compared to historical data.

    But here's what I learned doing this - if you calculate their winning percentage using the fairly accurate pathagorean formula, it comes to 86-76. That's a far cry from 74-88 that was last year.

    My guess is this is why AA and co. keep saying they like the team they have. We all know he's a numbers guy, and really, if you break it down and this team has a fairly average year next year, they could win 86 games and contend. They could also completely fall apart again like last year, but I guess in one sense, the core is there for a winning team.

    So, here's my projections. Feel free to trash them all you want! Cheers!

    Name AB H R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Jose Reyes 508 147 84 10 50 24 .289 .353 .431 .784
    Jose Bautista 464 122 84 32 79 7 .263 .374 .513 .887
    Edwin Encarnacion 537 149 85 33 96 8 .277 .366 .518 .884
    Adam Lind 528 152 67 22 79 1 .288 .358 .464 .822
    Colby Rasmus 510 128 65 21 65 3 .251 .319 .431 .751
    Melky Cabrera 477 136 67 7 57 8 .285 .337 .394 .731
    Brett Lawrie 496 139 66 18 62 16 .280 .331 .450 .780
    Dioner Navarro 357 93 41 11 47 0 .261 .315 .373 .688
    Ryan Goins 331 81 35 4 30 6 .245 .274 .332 .606
    Maicer Izturis 265 68 30 3 26 3 .257 .318 .343 .662
    Anthony Gose 235 63 22 2 25 13 .268 .305 .391 .697
    Moises Sierra 190 46 18 5 22 2 .242 .275 .389 .664
    Erik Kratz 175 40 19 5 23 0 .229 .292 .360 .652
    Josh Thole 129 32 12 2 12 0 .248 .319 .318 .637
    Chris Getz 104 25 10 0 9 3 .240 .298 .269 .567
    Muenori Kawaski 133 33 17 0 22 3 .248 .322 .308 .630
    Kevin Pillar 120 32 12 2 12 3 .267 .321 .375 .696
    TOTALS 5559 1486 734 177 716 100 .267 .332 .419 .751


    Name W L IP ER ERA
    RA Dickey 14 9 210 79 3.39
    Mark Buehrle 12 11 205 90 3.95
    Brandon Morrow 6 6 98 47 4.32
    Esmil Rogers 8 9 146 74 4.56
    Drew Hutchinson 7 7 112 54 4.34
    JA Happ 5 6 118 62 4.73
    Kyle Drabek 3 4 58 31 4.81
    Rickey Romero 1 2 25 14 5.04
    Marcus Stroman 2 2 29 14 4.34
    Todd Redmond 3 4 52 28 4.85
    Brett Cecil 3 1 46 17 3.33
    Aaron Loup 3 1 50 16 2.88
    Sergio Santos 4 2 62 22 3.19
    Casey Janssen 4 4 62 21 3.05
    Steve Delabar 3 3 58 17 2.64
    Neil Wagner 2 1 41 16 3.51
    Dustin McGowan 4 3 46 18 3.52
    Jeremy Jeffress 1 1 21 8 3.43
    Chad Jenkins 1 1 15 8 4.80
    TOTALS 86 76 1454 636 3.94

  2. #2
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    I don't think Anthopoulos is a 'numbers guy' at all, and while I absolutely admire the effort I don't quite understand how you took batting average and home runs and the like and converted that into runs/wins. Yet saying all that, 86 isn't an unreasonable number. Unfortunately it's precisely the problem. Low-mid 80s don't get you **** in this division. Adding an extra win or two is huge. That's why losing Santana hurts them so badly.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2009mvp View Post
    I don't think Anthopoulos is a 'numbers guy' at all, and while I absolutely admire the effort I don't quite understand how you took batting average and home runs and the like and converted that into runs/wins. Yet saying all that, 86 isn't an unreasonable number. Unfortunately it's precisely the problem. Low-mid 80s don't get you **** in this division. Adding an extra win or two is huge. That's why losing Santana hurts them so badly.
    HR, AVG, etc all contribute to OPS. OPS is generally considered a good indicator for runs scored. On the pitching side, calculating the team ERA helps predict runs against. Those two stats alone can be plugged into the Pythagorean formula to predict winning percentage, and historically it's actually been a reasonable predictor of a teams median wins based on runs for an against. Granted, it usually predicts within +/- 4 wins, but its a fun way to see how individual stats can actually play into a teams win/loss record.

    The Blue Jays have been regarded as a team who relies on sabermetrics. Given FanGraphs lists Toronto as a "Highly Analytical Organization" my guess is that would qualify AA as a numbers guy. Just my opinion though. Regardless, it's just fun to try and predict and later see how awful I am at it!

  4. #4
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    LOL at predicting an injury pleged rotation -- which sadly will likely be true.

  5. #5
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    nice projections.. but wow.. looks like SP takes a beating in injuries, and no player hits over 40 HR and 100 RBI?? pretty sure EE will get er done. Bautista, you can expect a late season injury.
    JETS
    MAPLE LEAFS
    RAPTORS
    BLUE JAYS
    BENGALS

  6. #6
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    LMAO. Im expecting Dickey to have a high 3 era, Morrow with a low 4 ERA (probably only 8 starts), Buerhle with a low 5 ERA, 12 other pitchers for the last two spots and the remainder of morrows average a low 5 ERA.

    Im expecting a huge year out of Cabrera. Something like a .330 BA.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by mkcavy View Post
    HR, AVG, etc all contribute to OPS. OPS is generally considered a good indicator for runs scored. On the pitching side, calculating the team ERA helps predict runs against. Those two stats alone can be plugged into the Pythagorean formula to predict winning percentage, and historically it's actually been a reasonable predictor of a teams median wins based on runs for an against. Granted, it usually predicts within +/- 4 wins, but its a fun way to see how individual stats can actually play into a teams win/loss record.

    The Blue Jays have been regarded as a team who relies on sabermetrics. Given FanGraphs lists Toronto as a "Highly Analytical Organization" my guess is that would qualify AA as a numbers guy. Just my opinion though. Regardless, it's just fun to try and predict and later see how awful I am at it!
    My mistake, I'm looking at the page on my phone and it cut off everything after avg for the position players and ERA for the arms. OPS isn't a bad way to do it.

    And yeah, I know the general perception is that Anthopoulos is a big numbers guy, but I don't really see much evidence in his decisions to support that. Not unlike Ricciardi, under it all I think he's very much a scout first kind of guy.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by joshhorvath View Post
    nice projections.. but wow.. looks like SP takes a beating in injuries, and no player hits over 40 HR and 100 RBI?? pretty sure EE will get er done. Bautista, you can expect a late season injury.
    Or Batista will get traded

    As for the projection,very nice.
    Well done,that's a lot of work.
    Brandon Morrow stats are dead on,the guy won't even pitch 10 games.

  9. #9
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    Pretty good job, nothing completely unreasonable here - though I think it's going to be hard predicting that pitching staff, at least health wise anyways.

    As MVP said though, this is exactly the problem. ~85 wins is probably around what Toronto will hit this season, assuming things break right for them.... but that'll be good for somewhere around 3rd-4th place in the division (or worse). We're stuck with a high payroll and a mediocre ballclub, and if we would have added a SP or two, we could probably push for 90 wins this year. That would contend for the division or at least a wild card spot, 85 wins isn't going to cut it though...

    Instead, we'll have to rely on a patchwork rotation to try and get the job done which of course CAN happen but I don't see the stars aligning to mask all the other holes on our roster.

    Guess we'll find out soon. As disappointed as I am with this franchise and it's direction, I really cannot wait for the games to start.


    Had to be done! Go T-Rex

  10. #10
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    I appreciate your work here. I see you expect a lot of progress from Lawrie. I hope you are right, but I'm skeptical. I'm afraid that I agree with you on a lot of the pitching predictions. While I expect a good season from Dickey I dont expect much from anyone else in the rotation and the bullpen will be overworked again. I think a win total in the mid 80's is a good projection. That is unless AA has a deal up his sleeve to bring in at least one more starter.

  11. #11
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    I think 'on paper' it's not a bad looking team and could make some noise. Good bull pen, solid offence with upward potential, and an OK rotation. The biggest problem is depth. Lose Morrow and Dickey and we have a worse rotation than the Astros. Not a lot of position players with any potential knocking at the door either. There will be injuries, and the depth is highly suspect. But you have to beleive that there is some potential for this team to prove every one wrong (that's what spring is about!!), there's simply a lot of question marks, particularly in the rotation, problems there can sink a season themselves and the Jays haven't set themselves up too great for that.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by nithanyo View Post
    LMAO. Im expecting Dickey to have a high 3 era, Morrow with a low 4 ERA (probably only 8 starts), Buerhle with a low 5 ERA, 12 other pitchers for the last two spots and the remainder of morrows average a low 5 ERA.

    Im expecting a huge year out of Cabrera. Something like a .330 BA.
    So you think Mark Buehrle is going to implode this season?

  13. #13
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    jays have potential elite offense and pen, the rotation needs NEEDS to be healthy and have a miracle or 2

  14. #14
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    Edwin is going to have an MVP type season.

  15. #15
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    So Vegas has given 82 wins for the jays for over/under. Shall I put some money on the over then?

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