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  1. #1
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    Another Giancarlo thread

    Giancarlo Stanton to the Boston Red Sox a trade that makes sense
    Fansided | Mar 9

    The Miami Marlins seemingly traded all of their top talent before the 2013 season. Everybody except Giancarlo Stanton, that is.

    From the moment they retained him on the roster the trade rumors have been relentless. Every single team in baseball could use a young, elite, right-handed slugger who is under team control through 2017, after all. But not even the Marlins and their baffling tactics were willing to trade such a rare player.

    Nothing came of those rumors and the Marlins recently expressed interesting in signing Stanton to an extension. Until such a deal is done, though, the trade rumors will continue. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe offers what he believes to be a plausible trade partner this morning: none other than the Boston Red Sox.

    Numerous teams would be in the hunt for Stanton, including the Cubs, Tigers, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Twins, and Mariners. You’d have to give up top young players, and then sign Stanton to a huge long-term deal.

    But in reality, the team that matches up best with Miami is Boston. The Red Sox have the young players Miami wants and they have the financial resources to sign him.”

    What would that trade look like? Cafardo offers the following possibilities:

    Assuming the Red Sox would put Xander Bogaerts and Henry Owens on their no-trade list, the Marlins have always liked Will Middlebrooks and certainly feel Garin Cecchini is a top prospect. Add one of them to a package of Matt Barnes,Christian Vazquez, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts? Would that be enough? Would that be too much for the Sox to give up?”
    - See more at: http://www.prosportsdaily.com/articl....ISlXdbKK.dpuf

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++

    I don't like it. Why isn't Nava part of the deal? Nava and Brentz could easily take JBJ off the table.

    Vazquez? Fall back on my 3 way idea: trade Peavy to a team, and that team deals a kid Miami wants instead.

    Finally, Cecchini or WMB? They can have WMB.

    Nava, Brentz, Betts, kid x (talking top 100 spec here), Barnes, RDLR or Webster - close (a bit lighter) to my prior offers, keeps our likely starting 2014 CF, 2016 catcher, and 2015 3B on the team.

    Other opinions?


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  2. #2
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    Stanton to Boston would be great but I hope that any deal that brings Stanton here is a deal that makes sense for the team and doesn't mortgage to big a part of our future.
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  3. #3
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    This is just one more reason that I hate Cafardo. He needs to stick to reporting what he hears; his conjecture about trades and the like are horrific.

  4. #4
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    I agree with the sentiment of trying to keep vazquez, guy is a defensive stud with a bat that is steadily improving, and at this point theres a decent chance he takes over the big league job over swihart. In related news, I wouldnt mind including swihart in this deal as the "player x" we get for peavy/ substitute for vazquez.

    i dont think nava+brentz= bradley but hey might as well ask, the worst you can hear is no.

    If we trade Middlebrooks in this deal and Peavy is gone, I assume they go the Drew route? they'll have the cash certainly, but it seems like an idea that was frowned upon by many on here not too long ago.

    bags has a good offer structure, i think that sort of deal makes sense. now you just have to hope the marlins are rational in their expectations for a package

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by rollins94 View Post
    I agree with the sentiment of trying to keep vazquez, guy is a defensive stud with a bat that is steadily improving, and at this point theres a decent chance he takes over the big league job over swihart. In related news, I wouldnt mind including swihart in this deal as the "player x" we get for peavy/ substitute for vazquez.

    i dont think nava+brentz= bradley but hey might as well ask, the worst you can hear is no.

    If we trade Middlebrooks in this deal and Peavy is gone, I assume they go the Drew route? they'll have the cash certainly, but it seems like an idea that was frowned upon by many on here not too long ago.

    bags has a good offer structure, i think that sort of deal makes sense. now you just have to hope the marlins are rational in their expectations for a package
    Drew for a year with a promise not to arb him. Deal him at the deadline if Sox suck or Cechini ready to go early.

    Swihart didn't look that good today, but still rather gamble on him and cash in Peavy.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  6. #6
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    I think pulling stanton to the Sox would be a great move if we can get it done. Kid has a chance to be special and use that green monster to its ability. Id do Cecchini, Barnes, and Mookie + maybe another spec but not to high. Cant comprise the farm for him though. If we were to give up a catcher i would rather keep vasquez.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox47 View Post
    I think pulling stanton to the Sox would be a great move if we can get it done. Kid has a chance to be special and use that green monster to its ability. Id do Cecchini, Barnes, and Mookie + maybe another spec but not to high. Cant comprise the farm for him though. If we were to give up a catcher i would rather keep vasquez.
    The beauty of my deal (and prior versions) is that I'm dealing from areas of depth (much like my Adrian Gonzalez trade):

    1. SP - Miami doesn't need an expensive vet like Peavy, but a team that does will return a kid that Miami want
    2. ML vets: cheap and proven: (Nava who we won't be needing); young/cheap: (WMB - power at 3B)
    3. Pitching in the minors (happy to hand over RDLR and Webster(8)
    4. Positional in the minors were we are deep: 2B (Betts(10) or Coyle(25)); Even deal them Brentz (16 - good spring)

    Counterpoints:

    1. Peavy - a solid #2 or #3 - don't we need him? Nice to have him, but his salary is high, he's a FA after this year, and we are deep at SP. From a team desperate for a #2, they could trade a kid in BA's top 100. This wipes Vazquez out of the deal, and more to boot. Our rotation w/o him is: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Workman. I'll take Workman & Drew vs Peavy and the current left side.
    2. Nava is the little engine that could and between him and Brentz Miami will be able to have a LF over at least the next 4 years (Nava will be cheap thru '17) - but neither is going to be a big deal hitter in Boston (pretty sure we just saw Nava's career year). If Brentz can play than Miami gets a nice trade chip in Nava.
    3. Chances are neither of these 2 is going to make it Boston as a #3 SP or better. RDLR has a great arm, but doesn't appear to know how to pitch (a good MR at best). Webster's shelf life is waning.
    4. Betts(10) is a hot kid right now, but they don't even know where they might play him.

    So the deal is Peavy(kid to Miami -probable top 5 sort of kid in a good system), Nava, Brentz(16), WMB, RDLR, Webster(8), Betts(10).

    Sign Drew.

    I haven't laid a hand on most of the Sox system, and nobody expected to contribute this year. I've dealt a platoon LF whom we don't need w/ Stanton, a 3B whose future outside of his raw power is in question, and a probable RP that isn't liable to impact our staff by being gone.

    I've gone quantity over quality, and the negative ripples left in the pond 13 months from today from such a deal might be quite hard to make out.

    No matter what I won't trade XB, Cecchini, Vazquez. I might trade JBJ or Swihart, but it would have to alter the deal a great deal to make it worthwhile.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 03-10-2014 at 09:40 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  8. #8
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    Assuming a trade gets done within the next 2 years, what is a realistic contract extension look like? He's only 24 right now.

    9 years, $200 milllion?
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  9. #9
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    Another Giancarlo thread

    Why would the Marlins want Nava? They'd want JBJ, very likely. And they should want him over Brentz.

    Xander and Owens can be untouchable but they'll want a package of 3-4 guys of the other top specs we have.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tragedy View Post
    Why would the Marlins want Nava? They'd want JBJ, very likely. And they should want him over Brentz.

    Xander and Owens can be untouchable but they'll want a package of 3-4 guys of the other top specs we have.
    Did you read what I wrote?

    Miami gets Nava (under control cheap starting player) AND Brentz (16th spec).

    Miami gets our 8th (Webster), 10th (Betts) spec.

    Miami gets a top 100 MLB spec for Peavy - they get to chose who they want if that team wants Peavy.

    They get RDLR, who would be rated in the Sox top 10 if he was still a spec.

    They get WMB would be rated 2nd in the Sox system if he was still a spec.

    Why not toss in Lester and XB too? Miami can't get everything they want. They have said they want WMB. They obviously want cheap young talented players under control (who doesn't). They also can't get highly speculative specs across the board, they could actually use starting players such as WMB and Nava.

    I know Miami keeps talking about keeping him for a few more years. With his injury issues that's not a no risk proposition, so I'm making it hard for them to say no, without crushing our own team or farm system - this year or any year.

    For instance if the deal was XB for GS I say no. Big hitters in the INF are worth more than the OF, plus we have years more control of XB then GS, and GS has had injury issues. I'm quite sure on both Cecchini and Vazquez too. JBJ I might deal, but we don't have a solution in the mid term w/o him and finding one could cost us a lot - so I'd rather not. Even if JBJ is a .252/.312/.382 player his first 3 years with killer D, he's worth it for his salary and stability of the position - until we get a better player and/or deal him later.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 03-10-2014 at 12:36 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo Sox Fan View Post
    Assuming a trade gets done within the next 2 years, what is a realistic contract extension look like? He's only 24 right now.

    9 years, $200 milllion?
    Say it gets done today: we'd be buying out 4 years of control where his average salary could be in the $11-12M range. So $48m for 4 and $25M for 4 is $148m for 8. The payrolls are going up, so with inflation, good will and all the rest: 8/$160M.

    Add a 3 single year options at: ($27.5M in todays salary indexed to what that is in 2022 - say $33M) each year Sox option, buyout is $2M. So it could be as much as 11 years for $259M. Or as "little" as 8/$162M.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Drew for a year with a promise not to arb him. Deal him at the deadline if Sox suck or Cechini ready to go early.

    Swihart didn't look that good today, but still rather gamble on him and cash in Peavy.
    Read somewhere that Drew might be coming down to something like $20M/2yr to save face. And future FAs may think much harder about accepting that QO.

    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Say it gets done today: we'd be buying out 4 years of control where his average salary could be in the $11-12M range. So $48m for 4 and $25M for 4 is $148m for 8. The payrolls are going up, so with inflation, good will and all the rest: 8/$160M.

    Add a 3 single year options at: ($27.5M in todays salary indexed to what that is in 2022 - say $33M) each year Sox option, buyout is $2M. So it could be as much as 11 years for $259M. Or as "little" as 8/$162M.
    This makes a lot of sense. BUT... I'd cut it a year shorter to see the kid play a full season. I'm in the camp of those concerned about his ability to play 150 games. There's no reason that he shouldn't be able to ... but he hasn't lately.

  13. #13
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    Boston acquires
    -Stanton

    Miami acquires
    -Owens
    -Cecchini
    -Swihart
    -Carp
    -RDLR
    -Brentz

    I had a difficult time making this work for both teams, But after looking at what Miami has on it's current roster and down on the farm, it makes sense. I see Owens as a back of the rotation guy on a first division team and I see Cecchini as cof with a good but not great on base guy with minimum power. Swihart is a different story, this guy has stud written all over him, but I don't think the deal works without him. Carp would be a good fit for the marlins as they have no power at 1b at mlb level or the minors, plus he would be redundant with Nava still on the roster. Brentz actually fits really well with Marlins as I see him as a second division starter and he can replace some of Stanton's power.

    Betts is the player I would avoid at all costs trading, with his athletic ability the sox could put him anywhere in the field and he would be just fine. I would venture to guess by the end of the year it will be Betts and Swihart battling out for top prospect in the system.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    I had a difficult time making this work for both teams, But after looking at what Miami has on it's current roster and down on the farm, it makes sense.
    No, this does not make sense for the Red Sox. How many of these guys have you actually seen?

    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    I see Owens as a back of the rotation guy on a first division team
    This is the guy that most scouts see as the pitching prospect with the highest upside, recently suggested as a #2 ceiling.

    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    and I see Cecchini as cof with a good but not great on base guy with minimum power.
    The guy who led the minors in OBP is going to be a "good but not great on base guy"? And when will he be switching to a corner OF position? Sigh.

    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    Swihart is a different story, this guy has stud written all over him, but I don't think the deal works without him.
    Swihart is high on potential but I'm honestly stunned that you think he's the most valuable product in this array.

    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    Carp would be a good fit for the marlins as they have no power at 1b at mlb level or the minors, plus he would be redundant with Nava still on the roster.
    Carp has never been more than a backup and his power (.444 career SLG) is unspectacular. So is his 162-game average of 17HR. In fact, those numbers are not all that different than the kid MIA has at AA.

    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    Brentz actually fits really well with Marlins as I see him as a second division starter and he can replace some of Stanton's power.
    Yay, I actually agree.

    Quote Originally Posted by win red sox View Post
    Betts is the player I would avoid at all costs trading, with his athletic ability the sox could put him anywhere in the field and he would be just fine. I would venture to guess by the end of the year it will be Betts and Swihart battling out for top prospect in the system.
    I think you're sipping the Kool-Aid a bit too much. If Betts repeats 2013 at the next level I suppose it's possible... but I harbor doubts based on what I saw of him in the field. Perhaps he had a renewed focus as he left a pretty lousy GVL team but he seemed bored and distracted in the field and booted very easy plays.

  15. #15
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    1) I've seen several games of Betts and Swihart, 2 starts of Owens and 2-3 games with Cecchini. I travel to the east coast often for work and try to catch as many game as possible.

    2) The starts I saw Owens wasn't overpowering ones, grabbed a lot of plate but had the hitters fooled with offspeed stuff, I don't think that will play at the MLB level.

    3) While I only observed Cecchini a couple of times, the times I did observe him his reaction time was below average at 3b(hence why I think he will move cof spot). And my thought process behind Cecchini being a good but not great obp guy is that he has average speed with below average power, MLB pitchers are not going to be scared to pitch to him, and he's not going to runout those groung balls he hits consistently(50% gb rate). sigh.

    4) Swihart is going to be "special", not only was I impressed with his work behind the plate but his approach at the plate was more advanced than anticipated(plus he talked to my son for 15 mins about catching)

    5) Carp would be an upgrade over what they have now.

    6) Brentz agreed

    7) Betts Is probably the best athlete I observed in the system, the approach is advanced, and when he makes contact its loud. I do agree that his defense appeared sloppy at times on routine plays, but the range is there and hopefully the focus will come.

    These are just my opinions and hopefully im wrong on some of them.

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