Congrats to Brent on making his team the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Rather than lauding him for his accomplishment, let me break down why Dallas has the right team to pull off an upset:
We have a number of great defenders to cover Chris Paul and make his job tougher. Lowry, Afflalo, Leonard, and Watson can all see time covering Chris Paul giving him different looks, height-adjustments, wing-span inspections, and so forth. The second point of LAC's attack is Brook Lopez, who will be guarded by Andre Drummond. Lopez may win this matchup with his ability to pull Drummond away from the basket, but Drummond will have the luxury of having a great perimeter defense to slow down any penetration giving him time to give weak-side help. Then LAC has Anthony Davis, a great player that will be guarded primarily by Dirk. Yes, that's not exactly ideal for my team, but Davis is still rather unpolished offensively.
Matthews will see Afflalo, and even some Lowry and Leonard on occasion pending on the situation. Whichever of Afflalo or Leonard isn't guarding Matthews, will have the assignment of guarding the age-stricken and woefully under-performing Paul Pierce.
The rebounding differential is in favor of my team by a smidge, we can all acknowledge how mediocre Nowitkzi and Lopez are at rebounding, and how great Davis and Drummond are. The bigs cancel each other out at different positions, but my starting backcourt and Leonard will take care of the glass as a unit ahead of CP3/Matthews/Pierce.
Finally, our offensive attack will run through plenty of pick and rolls with Lowry/Dirk, with guys like Afflalo/Leonard spacing the floor. We will force Davis away from the basket to mitigate his rebounding abilities and shot-blocking prowess, which in turn gives Drummond an advantage of rebounding over Brook Lopez. Yeah, Dallas will get a lot of offensive boards.
The benches as a whole are both good, but seeing how I don't have to rely on any of my bench players to give a starter a long-duration of rest like LAC must do with Paul Pierce at his age, my starters will do most of the damage. As a whole, with great perimeter defense to slow down Paul and fantastic rebounding and spacing, my team has a real shot at this. My players are all highly efficient and will force LAC to play both ends, putting more pressure on them defensively.
This series will be close, but I think Dallas will pull off the upset in 7 games.