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  1. #1
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    Hell freezes over.... Jaime Garcia is hurt....

    who could have seen this coming...

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseb...ZM44Uw.twitter

    Probably out of action for at least a month..... this takes him out of the rotation for the time being. Maybe even for good if other guys step up

  2. #2
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    At this point it's just shoulder soreness which can be very common coming back from this. But it's really disappointing but not surprising

    If he's out significant time this actually changes quite a bit.

    Now one of Martinez or Kelly would be heading to the rotation and likely the other to the bullpen. There was a good chance Martinez would go to AAA and Kelly to the pen but Martinez may be needed in the pen now

    This also could open up the door for a guy like Neshek to make the team, he already had a good shot IMO.

    I really think of Garcia is out significantly we could be looking at

    Wainwright
    Miller
    Wacha
    Lynn
    Kelly/Martinez (just listing starters. Not necessarily order)

    And bullpen guarantees we have (unless there in an injury)

    Rosenthal
    Kelly/Martinez (Martinez is a maybe, Kelly for sure if he's not starting)
    Siegrist
    Choate

    So that's 9 depending on Martinez

    So we have 3 spots left and have these guys to fill them but with question marks

    Motte- is he ready in time for opening day? Ive seen yes and no
    Neshek- great vs right handers. Great pen option IMO if there is space
    Maness- he did great last year but I think there was a lot of luck and I think he has a good chance to get a spot but he's not locked in for one
    Butler- quality arm looking for an opportunity. Could be a surprise this year IMO
    Freeman- showed big strides last year. Hard throwing left hander. But do we want 3 lefties and a right handed specialist (Neshek)


    When Motte is healthy he will get a spot. So basically it's gonna be between those guys and maybe if a younger guy really comes out strong in camp

    But IMO if Kelly is in the rotation we need Martinez in the bullpen

  3. #3
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    Just means Baby Pedro into the rotation

  4. #4
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    Btw, Martinez is about 30% better than Kelly. If both are on the roster, you put Martinez in the rotation and let him get more innings than Kelly. They are very different in terms of production.

    I don't know that Martinez can handle all the innings....but he, Miller, and Wacha all being in the rotation together for the next 5 seasons is going to be something awesome.

  5. #5
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    Yeah I think I saw Martinez will be on an innings limit this year.

    And I'm fine with him over kelly

  6. #6
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    yeah, let him pitch 85 pitches a start, and stop him after 2400 pitches would be fine (28ish starts...about 160 innings)....and let Kelly have the rest

  7. #7
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    Every year its the same old problem with this guy since he was put into rotation, either he's hurt or he is a head case, but always something, they might as well let him walk.....
    The Ulitmate Warrior

  8. #8
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    What does Jaime's contract look like? I was hoping we could move him, I didn't expect him to get injured this early
    "If you find yourself in the majority, rethink your position" - Mark Twain

  9. #9
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    2014 - $7,750,000
    2015 - $9,250,000
    2016 - $11.5M Team Option, $500k Buyout
    2017 - $12M Team Option, $500k Buyout

    safe to say 2015 will be his last year with us if he cant get healthy

  10. #10
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    He's not going anywhere for several years guys and no one will take him in trade so dont even bother with any of that guys lol

    I'm not sure I believe that it is for sure gonna be Martinez in over Kelly in the rotation.

    He needs to be much more efficient with his breaking pitches imo. If he can be it should be him but if hes a struggling to get through 5 innings he needs to wait do some more work in AAA imo.

    If he comes into spring and is doing better with this issue im great with him in there

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shlumpledink View Post
    What does Jaime's contract look like? I was hoping we could move him, I didn't expect him to get injured this early
    Jaime gets 7.75 this year, and 9.25 next year, then he can be released for 1 million (essentially making next year worth 10.25)....if he rebounds, then it's another 11 million for him to pitch in 2016 and 11.5 million in 2017

    It was a good extension to make, too bad he has dealt with shoulder issues.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skippy15 View Post
    He's not going anywhere for several years guys and no one will take him in trade so dont even bother with any of that guys lol

    I'm not sure I believe that it is for sure gonna be Martinez in over Kelly in the rotation.

    He needs to be much more efficient with his breaking pitches imo. If he can be it should be him but if hes a struggling to get through 5 innings he needs to wait do some more work in AAA imo.

    If he comes into spring and is doing better with this issue im great with him in there
    I think the chances of Martinez making the rotation are much better than Kelly. The organization really wants him to start. They really think he is another Pedro Martinez.

    Projection
    STEAMER
    Martinez - 3.57 ERA
    Kelly - 4.07 ERA

    Martinez has the upside. And Kelly is an over-rated pitcher until he can control his K/BB better....otherwise he is a team controlled Jake Westbrook.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 02-23-2014 at 04:08 PM.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    I think the chances of Martinez making the rotation are much better than Kelly. The organization really wants him to start. They really think he is another Pedro Martinez.

    Projection
    STEAMER
    Martinez - 3.57 ERA
    Kelly - 4.07 ERA

    Martinez has the upside. And Kelly is an over-rated pitcher until he can control his K/BB better....otherwise he is a team controlled Jake Westbrook.
    100% disagee

    Everyone knows martinez is a much better pitcher ability wise but if he can't control his secondary pitches yet consistently and isn't efficiant with them he wont start here at the MLB level.

    No offense at all but projections are worthless. They aren't used in a teams decision making and frankly you can't make projections for a guy who has never been a starter in an MLB season. There's no basis for it for a guy like Holliday or Beltran with a legit track record I can see but I'm not listening to projections in any form for a guy who's never started a major league game

    I think while yes we would all like to see Martinez take the job that doesn't mean he will.

    Also, by calling him Jake westbrook you could be hurting your argumet. Don't forget this is the franchise that kept him around 3 years because they liked his stability (even though he offered none)

    The team sees a stable pitcher in Kelly. They see an extremely talented but still young pitcher who is inconsistent with pitch count and secondary pitches even though they have great potential. It doesn't make a difference as a reliever because its 90% fastballs.


    I'm telling you guys. If Martinez hasn't become more consistent with his pitch count/throwing secondary for strikes (goes hand in hand) he won't be in the rotation

    This isn't what I think should happen. Its just what will. Personally I would put martinez in the spot

    But they will put the pitcher in there who is more consistent and gives them 6+ innings. That is Kelly unless martinez has improved this spring. Which he very well could have

  14. #14
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    Right now its a 60-40 split now with kelly vs martinez imo

    Martinez right now would not take spot 5

    All he has to do is make some small improvements and he will take the spot but if by the end of spring he isnt able to give them 6 innings and can't be somewhat consistent he wont get it.

    Imo he very well can earn it but the idea he's got it locked up already like some believe is ridiculous

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skippy15 View Post
    100% disagee

    Everyone knows martinez is a much better pitcher ability wise but if he can't control his secondary pitches yet consistently and isn't efficiant with them he wont start here at the MLB level.
    His fastball and curveballs are definetly under great command. His changeup is still coming, but has all of the signs, so does his slider.

    He'll have four plus pitches after spring, I'm confident.


    I've always been lower on Martinez because of his arm action and size. I have always felt he would make an elite closer. But if he can start, that's where he needs to be.


    No offense at all but projections are worthless. They aren't used in a teams decision making and frankly you can't make projections for a guy who has never been a starter in an MLB season. There's no basis for it for a guy like Holliday or Beltran with a legit track record I can see but I'm not listening to projections in any form for a guy who's never started a major league game
    You aren't offending me. I was using it to illustrate how much better Martinez really is.

    And he is that much better.

    Kelly is a greatly over-rated starter. He throws hard, he gets ground balls. He lacks command, control, and the ability to put people away. Something that is going to get really exposed in more innings.

    I'm not a fan of Kelly at all. I understand why the organization likes him. And he is a great personality and a good guy. But performance wise. If I could give 160 innings to either C-Mart or Joe Kelly. I pick C-Mart 10 times out of 10. He is a better pitcher.

    But, fwiw. Projection systems are for players who have minor league data is actually very accurate and very telling. When given information of age, level played, league adjustments, and periphs....you get a very good picture of what kind of player that player is going to be. It is within 10% accuracy...something like 88% of the time. Meaning, 9 out of 10 players are considered accurately projected. (it would be considered accurate if C-Mart for example come up and pitched to a 3.20-3.90 ERA when projected to a 3.57). There is plenty of data to show this and to help create the information. It's like they just looked at Carlos and said, that sounds good. It's based on what he has done, where he has done it, and the wave of players before him over the last 120 years of baseball history.
    I think while yes we would all like to see Martinez take the job that doesn't mean he will.
    I honestly believe it's his job to lose.

    Also, by calling him Jake westbrook you could be hurting your argumet. Don't forget this is the franchise that kept him around 3 years because they liked his stability (even though he offered none)
    Westbrook and Kelly are of that Dave Duncan adage, pitch to contact. Which is great. It's not inaccurate. But if you can strike guys out, you would rather have the pitcher with the better K/BB than the high ground ball rate.

    I'm telling you guys. If Martinez hasn't become more consistent with his pitch count/throwing secondary for strikes (goes hand in hand) he won't be in the rotation
    He didn't have trouble throwing his secondary pitches for strikes last year, you know that right?

    Hitters chased his changeups and curveballs outside of the strike zone over 35% of the time he threw them last year.

    Meaning he is clearly fooling everyone. That would have been 7th best in baseball last year (Wainwright btw was third)

    His secondary pitches were given plus values last year when he was in the big leagues.

    Btw, Kelly was in the 30% range on balls chased outside of the zone, and his curveball was hammered.

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