The Atlanta Braves just extended Craig Kimbrel for 4 years and $42 million with incentives and an option that could make it 5 years and $58.5 million.
Kimbrel and Kenley are very similar pitchers
Kimbrel: 227 IP, 43% K, 9% BB, 1.39 ERA, 1.44 FIP, 1.70 xFIP, 1.46 SIERA, 9.2 WAR, 10.2 RA-9 WAR, 3.066 seasons of service time
Kenley: 222 IP, 40% K, 9% BB, 2.10 ERA, 2.03 FIP, 2.33 xFIP, 1.75 SIERA, 6.3 WAR, 6.9 RA-9 WAR, 3.073 seasons of service time
Kenlely has 2 seasons after this where he'll be eligible for arbitration. After the second season (2016) he'll be eligible for free agency. Kenley and the Dodgers just agreed to $4.3 million for this season.
What would you do as GM of the Dodgers?
Would you try to lock Kenley up long-term as the Braves did? What terms would you give?
Would you continue going year to year with Kenley?
Would you trade him?
Keep in mind that pitchers are more likely to suffer injury than position players and that relievers show more variance in performance than starters or position players.
Locking Kenely up increases risk to the Dodgers because they are committing dollars for unsure performance.
Going year-to-year with Kenley decreases risk because if Kenley is injured or suffers a decrease in performance the team isn't committed to him, but the cost of this decreased risk is that Kenley will demand more money per season.