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  1. #1
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    The Dodgers Long Term Plan

    Hello everyone, we have had an exciting couple of years as we have moved out of the Frank McCourt era into the Guggenheim era. After 2 years it is looking like their plan for the Dodgers is coming into focus.

    Current Payroll: ~$240 million (not including Jansen and Ellis arbitration, filling out the bench, and possibly Tanaka or Arroyo)

    That number looks really imposing, but let's take a look at some of the contracts that will be coming off the books next season.

    Josh Beckett: $15.75 million
    Chad Billingsley: $12 million (Unless the Dodgers miraculously pick up his 2015 option for $14 million)
    Dan Haren: $10 million (Unless he gets to 180 IPs, in which case we got him for 1 more year)

    Unless Haren has a big bounce back year this year, I don't see any of these guys coming back to the Dodgers in 2015. That is almost $38 million in savings in one season. Suddenly that $240-$270 million doesn't seem so monstrously high (though obviously it is still up there).

    Then after 2015, the following contracts come off the books.

    Brian Wilson: $10 million
    Brandon League: $9.5 million
    JP Howell: $4 million
    Juan Uribe: $7 million

    Suddenly another $30 million comes off the books again. So in the next two years the Dodgers have ~$70 million coming off of their payroll. That is quite a bit of flexibility that they know they have.

    All those positions have potential to be filled in house.

    Zach Lee - He may even come up this year
    Chris Anderson
    Julio Urias
    Ross Stripling
    Chris Reed

    Can fill in the bottom 2 SP positions (or 1 if we get Tanaka) and also maybe fill out our bullpen.

    Corey Seager steps in for Uribe

    So basically after the 2015 season it becomes about waiting for 2019, when a lot of the big contracts come off the books

  2. #2
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    Have the farm system of the Cardinals, but with the financial strength of the Yankees.

  3. #3
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    And I forgot to include the inevitable trade of either Ethier, Kemp, or Crawford. Though we would likely have to eat part of the contract, it could still save us around $10 million a year.

  4. #4
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    Brian Wilson could opt out at the end of this year, or wait it out.

    You can potentially add another 25 mill if Grienke opts out.

  5. #5
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    I think the chance of Greinke opting out are very, very low.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by ClipperFan489 View Post
    So basically after the 2015 season it becomes about waiting for 2019, when a lot of the big contracts come off the books
    I don't think that the Dodgers' plan is to get a lot of salary off of the books, which is really all that you talk about.


    But I do agree that it's interesting to look at how prospects can work their way onto the big league team.


    Zach Lee is the closest.
    With Haren, Billingsley, Beckett, Magill and Fife I don't see him competing for a spot in the rotation until probably 2016. The Dodgers are looking to add a starter (Tanaka or a guy like Arroyo) for 2014. For next year Haren and Billingsley could fill one, or both, of the #4 and #5 slots. Both are free agents after 2015, so that's the opening for Lee. Though, I think he'll move past Fife and Magill on the depth chart and be the guy called up to make spot starts and fill in for injuries - probably toward the end of this year assuming he pitcher well in the minors.

    Joc Pederson
    He's also very close to major league ready. I've been clamoring for the Dodgers to get a right-handed hitting OFer who an play CF. Pederson fits that bill, but, obviously, there's a lot of depth in front of him. If the guys in front of him are injured/performing poorly he could get the call similar to how Puig did last year. Otherwise, he's probably a September call up in 2014.

    Next year. More confusing. If Crawford puts up another healthy and productive season, he'll have some value in trade and could/should be moved. But that's contingent on Kemp and Ethier also being healthy and productive. I don't think the team's going to just give Pederson a starting OF spot. He'll break in as a part time player (defensive replacement, platoon partner, injury replacement) and if he performs THEN the Dodgers will make room for him as a starter.

    Corey Seager.
    He's a ways away. He tore up high-A last year, but struggled in AA. He'll be in AA this year. If he's awesome then maybe he gets some time in September in 2014. If he's awesome in 2014 maybe he wins a bench job in 2015 depending on how things go with Uribe, Hanley and Guerrero. Hopefully, he's starting at SS or 3B in 2016.

    Other guys aren't close enough, or good enough, to really worry about right now. Their good to have for depth, but they'll have to force the issue by having very good years in 2014.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerB24 View Post
    I think the chance of Greinke opting out are very, very low.
    Why?

  8. #8
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    Looking at all the big contracts, they practically all disappear in 2018, though Crawford A.Guerrero and potentially Ethier all disappear the year before.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    Looking at all the big contracts, they practically all disappear in 2018, though Crawford A.Guerrero and potentially Ethier all disappear the year before.
    The team is set up, with the players they have, for a 3-5 year run.
    Any young players they can infuse during that time extends the run.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Why?
    Do you think he can get more money? He'll be what, 31 when he can opt out?

    I don't think he can get 26+ million at that age, unless someone really really needs pitching. Of course, I'm only looking at this from the $$$ perspective. Maybe he just wants to go play in KC again, or a small market. I'm not him, so I'm just guessing here.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by DodgerB24 View Post
    Do you think he can get more money? He'll be what, 31 when he can opt out?

    I don't think he can get 26+ million at that age, unless someone really really needs pitching. Of course, I'm only looking at this from the $$$ perspective. Maybe he just wants to go play in KC again, or a small market. I'm not him, so I'm just guessing here.
    He can probably get a longer deal at the same or similar money.
    It's less risky for him to opt out if he's coming off two productive and healthy seasons. If he gets injured after 2015 then that, potentially, takes away from his future earnings.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    I don't think that the Dodgers' plan is to get a lot of salary off of the books, which is really all that you talk about.
    My apologies. You misunderstand. The contracts coming off the books are supposed to show flexibility to either a) sign some quality FAs or b) sign some of the young guns coming up (specifically Jansen, Hanley Extension, an dpotentially Tanaka (I would love it I just don't think so)).

    I don't think the Dodgers are worried about payroll, but at the same time, I don't expect them to be hovering near $300 million year in and year out.


    But I do agree that it's interesting to look at how prospects can work their way onto the big league team.


    Zach Lee is the closest.
    With Haren, Billingsley, Beckett, Magill and Fife I don't see him competing for a spot in the rotation until probably 2016. The Dodgers are looking to add a starter (Tanaka or a guy like Arroyo) for 2014. For next year Haren and Billingsley could fill one, or both, of the #4 and #5 slots. Both are free agents after 2015, so that's the opening for Lee. Though, I think he'll move past Fife and Magill on the depth chart and be the guy called up to make spot starts and fill in for injuries - probably toward the end of this year assuming he pitcher well in the minors.
    I feel like Zach Lee has gotten better every year. Last year he made some notable improvements, most importantly increasing his Ks while keeping his walks to a minimum.

    I know he doesn't have a true "out" pitch. But he has 4 quality major league pitches, and I am excited to see what he can do.

    Joc Pederson
    He's also very close to major league ready. I've been clamoring for the Dodgers to get a right-handed hitting OFer who an play CF. Pederson fits that bill, but, obviously, there's a lot of depth in front of him. If the guys in front of him are injured/performing poorly he could get the call similar to how Puig did last year. Otherwise, he's probably a September call up in 2014.
    He is completely dependent on the health of our current 4 OFs. Which is last year says anything, means he won't have to wait long.

    Next year. More confusing. If Crawford puts up another healthy and productive season, he'll have some value in trade and could/should be moved. But that's contingent on Kemp and Ethier also being healthy and productive. I don't think the team's going to just give Pederson a starting OF spot. He'll break in as a part time player (defensive replacement, platoon partner, injury replacement) and if he performs THEN the Dodgers will make room for him as a starter.
    I feel it is inevitable that one of the 4 OFs get traded this year (my money is on Ethier). That will definitely help open of some room for Joc. We shall see.

    Corey Seager.
    He's a ways away. He tore up high-A last year, but struggled in AA. He'll be in AA this year. If he's awesome then maybe he gets some time in September in 2014. If he's awesome in 2014 maybe he wins a bench job in 2015 depending on how things go with Uribe, Hanley and Guerrero. Hopefully, he's starting at SS or 3B in 2016.
    Yea, I think 2015 at the absolute earliest for Seager. Perfect scenario. Uribe comes of the books, and Seager is ready to step in.

    Other guys aren't close enough, or good enough, to really worry about right now. Their good to have for depth, but they'll have to force the issue by having very good years in 2014.
    Who said anything about worried.

    Julio Urias, I discovered this year, and I have only gotten more and more hyped the more I learn about him. He was 16 years old during this season, and dominated in his limited innings. I have heard Dodgers people talking about him pitching in the majors by the time he is 18.

    There doesn't seem to be much rush, but I love seeing super young elite prospects coming up.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciaban View Post
    Looking at all the big contracts, they practically all disappear in 2018, though Crawford A.Guerrero and potentially Ethier all disappear the year before.
    I imagine that by 2018, many of the $20+ million a year contracts will be over (aside from I think Kershaw and maybe Kemp).

    I don't think Gonzalez, Crawford or Ethier are going to have much in the tank at that point in their careers. It will either be time to sign another top tier FA (with our ownership group, this wouldn't surprise me), or fill in spots from our farm system (this is what the ownership groups SAYS it wants to do).

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by ClipperFan489 View Post
    My apologies. You misunderstand. The contracts coming off the books are supposed to show flexibility to either a) sign some quality FAs
    There are likely going to be less quality free agents to sign. More money is flowing into baseball meaning more teams will be able to keep their own free agents.

    I don't think the Dodgers are worried about payroll, but at the same time, I don't expect them to be hovering near $300 million year in and year out.
    Absolutely agreed.
    When the Guggenheim group took over the Dodgers there wasn't much in the farm system and the owners wanted to inject life into the team that McCourt had drained. That's the reason for this free spending.


    Quote Originally Posted by ClipperFan489 View Post
    fill in spots from our farm system (this is what the ownership groups SAYS it wants to do).
    Every team says they want to do this. Every teams wants to draft well and produce cheap talent via their farm system. It's just easier said than done.

    One thing that the Dodgers may be able to do is to trade our expensive players for other teams' young talent.
    Crawford isn't worth $20 million a year. But, if the Dodgers were to pay $15 million of that I think a lot of teams would be interested in Crawford at $5 million a year and would be willing to give up prospects to get him. Same goes for Ethier, maybe Gonzalez after a few more seasons, maybe Kemp in the future. The Dodgers might be able to use their financial advantage to 'buy' prospects from other teams

  15. #15
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    Pedersen is another left handed bat. I agree that Lee won't be here until 2016, if he's still in the organization. I don't see him being added to the 40 man roster until then. If all 4 outfielders are healthy and productive one will be dealt at the deadline to fill whatever need we have. Most likely it will be Ethier.

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