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  1. #1
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    2014 Red Sox Statistical Predicitions

    Made this thread for people to post their thought on players stats this season. Here are my predictions, and I went by intervals of 5 so I don't have to guess too much:

    1. LF Nava .280/.365/.425, 12 HRs, 50 RBIs, 60 runs (I'll give him more credit than most projections, who make him out to be a fluke)
    2. RF Victorino .275/.340/.430, 10 HRs, 55 RBIs, 70 runs, 25 SB
    3. 2B Pedroia .300/.370/.430, 15 HRs, 80 RBIs, 80 runs, 20 SB
    4. DH Ortiz .295/.380/.545, 28 HRs, 95 RBIs, 60 runs (Feel he's one of those special plyers who just doesn't regress with age, only if he gets injured)
    5. 1B Napoli .235/.350/.470, 26 HRs, 75 RBIs, 55 runs
    6. SS Bogaerts .280/.350/.450, 18 HRs, 65 RBIs, 55 runs (I feel he'll be good right off the bat, AL ROY favorite)
    7. C Pierzynski .265/.295/.430, 17 HRs, 65 RBIs, 45 runs
    8. 3B Middlebrooks .240/.295/.430, 22 HRs, 60 RBIs, 45 runs
    9. CF Bradley Jr. .260/.335/.400, 7 HRs, 40 RBIs, 55 runs

    Bench:

    C Ross .220/.280/.370, 6 HRs, 20 RBIs, 20 runs
    1B Carp .240/.300/.420, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs, 25 runs
    INF Herrera .245/.310/.390, 3 HRs, 30 RBIs, 30 runs
    OF Gomes .240/.325/.420, 13 HRs, 50 RBIs, 40 runs

    1. Lester 17-9, 3.35 ERA, 210 IP
    2. Lackey 14-10, 3.65 ERA, 170 IP
    3. Buchholz 12-8, 3.80 ERA, 140 IP
    4. Peavy 11-10, 4.15 ERA, 150 IP
    5. Doubront 11-4, 4.05 ERA, 140 IP
    6. Dempster 8-6, 4.35 ERA, 110 IP

    Don't feel like attempting bullpen/call-up projections.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by BostonSports96 View Post
    Made this thread for people to post their thought on players stats this season. Here are my predictions, and I went by intervals of 5 so I don't have to guess too much:

    1. LF Nava .280/.365/.425, 12 HRs, 50 RBIs, 60 runs (I'll give him more credit than most projections, who make him out to be a fluke)
    2. RF Victorino .275/.340/.430, 10 HRs, 55 RBIs, 70 runs, 25 SB
    3. 2B Pedroia .300/.370/.430, 15 HRs, 80 RBIs, 80 runs, 20 SB
    4. DH Ortiz .295/.380/.545, 28 HRs, 95 RBIs, 60 runs (Feel he's one of those special plyers who just doesn't regress with age, only if he gets injured)
    5. 1B Napoli .235/.350/.470, 26 HRs, 75 RBIs, 55 runs
    6. SS Bogaerts .280/.350/.450, 18 HRs, 65 RBIs, 55 runs (I feel he'll be good right off the bat, AL ROY favorite)
    7. C Pierzynski .265/.295/.430, 17 HRs, 65 RBIs, 45 runs
    8. 3B Middlebrooks .240/.295/.430, 22 HRs, 60 RBIs, 45 runs
    9. CF Bradley Jr. .260/.335/.400, 7 HRs, 40 RBIs, 55 runs

    Bench:

    C Ross .220/.280/.370, 6 HRs, 20 RBIs, 20 runs
    1B Carp .240/.300/.420, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs, 25 runs
    INF Herrera .245/.310/.390, 3 HRs, 30 RBIs, 30 runs
    OF Gomes .240/.325/.420, 13 HRs, 50 RBIs, 40 runs

    1. Lester 17-9, 3.35 ERA, 210 IP
    2. Lackey 14-10, 3.65 ERA, 170 IP
    3. Buchholz 12-8, 3.80 ERA, 140 IP
    4. Peavy 11-10, 4.15 ERA, 150 IP
    5. Doubront 11-4, 4.05 ERA, 140 IP
    6. Dempster 8-6, 4.35 ERA, 110 IP

    Don't feel like attempting bullpen/call-up projections.
    thats a lot of wins coming out of the starters even if a few are projected to to be bullpen appearences out of dempster.

  3. #3
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    I'm going to wait until the end of ST. I see a lot of solid seasons projected by you, no great ones, nothing really awful. I'd have to say I think we'll get a bit more in the not so good -> awful bracket, and hopefully a few to counteract those on the great side.

    Ortiz in the last 7 seasons has 3 (30-35 HR seasons) and 4 (23-29 HR seasons). He's supposed to be 38.5 years old at the start of the season. Ortiz will decline, the question is when. As of now this team is not prepared to handle that this season.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  4. #4
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    Trying to predict rate statistics are a crap shoot but I expect improvement from Middlebrooks, Peavy and the bullpen in general (we blew a lot of games in late innings last year despite Koji's success) and I expect regression from Nava, Napoli and Carp (as well as CF and C).

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox47 View Post
    thats a lot of wins coming out of the starters even if a few are projected to to be bullpen appearences out of dempster.
    About a 20 % increase in W's from starters (72 W's v 60 W's) with a corresponding 5 % reduction in innings pitched (920 v 970).. In short, an overall improvement in quality of the starting pitching across the board, but, not terribly out of line with what may be possible/probable...

    Walli's comment on stat projection.. is noted and true..

  6. #6
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    Nobody having 100 RBIs is unlikely. If Ortiz doesnt it will be because of injury and if he's injured Napoli should rack up RBIs like he did last April. I could give a **** about RBIs though so why am I even typing this?

  7. #7
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    I think the only things worth projecting are slash lines for hitters and era, K/BB rates for pitchers.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomar View Post
    Nobody having 100 RBIs is unlikely. If Ortiz doesnt it will be because of injury and if he's injured Napoli should rack up RBIs like he did last April. I could give a **** about RBIs though so why am I even typing this?
    I think run producing will be a collective effort this year, not one player racking them up unless Ortiz defies odds again. And I think Napoli has a slight regression from his career high 92 RBIs last season, but at least 75. If Ortiz regresses or is injured at all he could finish with under 100 RBIs, considering he only had 109 in the best offense in the league last year. Finally, I could see Bogaerts getting 80 RBIs if he is better than expected in his rookie year.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walligans View Post
    Trying to predict rate statistics are a crap shoot
    Quote Originally Posted by GeronimoSon View Post
    Walli's comment on stat projection.. is noted and true..
    Ridiculous.

    Here are some projected rate stats for Pedroia, Ortiz and Middlebrooks. If it was a 'crapshoot' then there'd be no way to tell which is which. I bet you guys can guess which projection is for which player

    .249/.291/.425
    .285/.352/.425
    .295/.386/.552

    Anybody think that Pedroia, Ortiz and Middlebrooks are equally likely to put up one of those three lines?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Ridiculous.

    Here are some projected rate stats for Pedroia, Ortiz and Middlebrooks. If it was a 'crapshoot' then there'd be no way to tell which is which. I bet you guys can guess which projection is for which player

    .249/.291/.425
    .285/.352/.425
    .295/.386/.552

    Anybody think that Pedroia, Ortiz and Middlebrooks are equally likely to put up one of those three lines?
    Projections are better thought of as over/unders than actual predictions of how a player will perform. They are always conservative because that gives them the smallest gaps statistically between the projections and the actual results, and they rarely provide insight in to a player's ability that fans couldn't come up with on their own. Crowd-sourced fan "predictions" are often just as accurate as projections.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walligans View Post
    Projections are better thought of as over/unders than actual predictions of how a player will perform.
    Most projections are mean projections, yes.
    There are, of course, other types.

    For example, the mean Davenport Projection for David Ortiz for 2014 is .282/.366/.477
    The 90th % projection is .310/.391/.549
    the 10th % projection is .252/.333/.425
    *http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ORTIZ19751118A.shtml

    They are always conservative because that gives them the smallest gaps statistically between the projections and the actual results

    They are conservative because that makes them more accurate (smallest gap between projections and actual results)? What are you saying

    They are always 'conservative' because they consider, as they should, the risk of injury.
    Fan projections are typically optimistic because, I believe, fans don't accurately assess the risk of injury.

    Crowd-sourced fan "predictions" are often just as accurate as projections.
    Is that an attempt at a criticism of projections?
    Because it's not one.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Most projections are mean projections, yes.
    There are, of course, other types.

    For example, the mean Davenport Projection for David Ortiz for 2014 is .282/.366/.477
    The 90th % projection is .310/.391/.549
    the 10th % projection is .252/.333/.425
    *http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/ORTIZ19751118A.shtml



    They are conservative because that makes them more accurate (smallest gap between projections and actual results)? What are you saying

    They are always 'conservative' because they consider, as they should, the risk of injury.
    Fan projections are typically optimistic because, I believe, fans don't accurately assess the risk of injury.


    Is that an attempt at a criticism of projections?
    Because it's not one.
    You're talking past me. Projection systems provide very little insight in to how a player will perform that the typical fan couldn't get simply by checking a player's statistics the last few years. They're essentially weighted averages that are regressed to the mean (to make them look more accurate and compensate for a lack of understanding around injuries and playing time). And even then, seasons are a constant cycle of hot and cold streaks and pitchers and hitters adjusting to each other.

    For those reasons, to say "I believe X player will hit X amount of home runs next year" is rather arbitrary. It would make more sense to discuss reasons why a player may or may not improve their production from the previous year.

  13. #13
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    You have to project to build your team. Best way to do that is a combo of stats and rich scouting/insight.

    Someone like Ortiz you can easily project a season like his last 3 years and you will be right, unless he's injured or this is the year age gets to him. Someone like Napoli who had a huge babip I would project to have a lower average and OBP, those numbers could potentially crash. Nava's projection would be purely opinion on whether or not you think his season was legit. Victorino is more complex. His numbers were heavily boosted at the end of the season when he exclusively hit right handed. In the playoffs it appeared that right handed pitchers learned how to take care of that. If he goes exclusively right handed next year he might not be as successful vs RHP. On the other hand, fully healthy he might perform better.

  14. #14
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    @filihok @Walligans

    I really don't give a **** how either of you defines projections or thinks they should work. This space isn't for arguing that. I created this for people to post their statistical predictions/projections for the roster this season. If either of you cares to do any or share them, be my guest to post them here, but not any of that other subjective crap.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by BostonSports96 View Post
    @filihok @Walligans

    I really don't give a **** how either of you defines projections or thinks they should work. This space isn't for arguing that. I created this for people to post their statistical predictions/projections for the roster this season. If either of you cares to do any or share them, be my guest to post them here, but not any of that other subjective crap.
    Chill, this is a public forum.

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