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  1. #1
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    Fangraphs FAN projections

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-fan-projections/

    Click to start doing your own if you'd like.

    Was a pretty fun exercise to do. Here are my projections. Added Drew for fun but the projections are the same without him:

    Hitters



    Pitchers(don't pay attention to W/L)


    What do you guys think? I think I am slightly optimistic with some of these, but I don't think any of these are unattainable.
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 01-17-2014 at 02:54 PM. Reason: Made it more realistic again lol

  2. #2
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    **** I forgot Flores. Oh well, doubt he'll get much time anyway.

    EDIT: Alright for Flores I got 180 PA, 14 2B, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 13 BB, 32 SO, .273/.322/.430, 0.7 WAR
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 01-16-2014 at 08:55 PM.

  3. #3
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    Stuna, you're basically projecting a 100-win season for us.

    Total WAR here is 51.9 (I added the WARs pretty quickly, maybe I made some mistakes) and replacement level of fWAR is 47-48 wins.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  4. #4
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    Let me try mine, probably won't come out much better.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by SJ5382 View Post
    Stuna, you're basically projecting a 100-win season for us.

    Total WAR here is 51.9 (I added the WARs pretty quickly, maybe I made some mistakes) and replacement level of fWAR is 47-48 wins.


    It made more sense when I was doing them individually, but basically injuries will happen and guys will under perform. The total WAR for the first 8 guys is 28.9, but that's barring good health and performance to expectation. If guys like Wright, d'Arnaud, Drew(if we got him), or any of the outfielders miss significant time, we are pretty thin behind those guys and that WAR total will drop significantly. I'm sure there will be some negative WAR guys too.

    I wouldn't pay attention to the pitching WAR, that was more difficult to do and there will be a lot of injuries and underperformance there. I was definitely too optimistic with the pen arms and Mejia.

  6. #6
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    After going through this, looks like I'm pretty high on our position players and not very high on our pitching.



    Last edited by SJ5382; 01-16-2014 at 10:56 PM.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  7. #7
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    Wink It's a joke, don't kill me, but do read the title. :p

    You could have stopped after "high."
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
    Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain?
    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
    Dorothy: Yes, I guess you're right.

  8. #8
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    OK I fixed mine in the OP. I think it's a lot more realistic than it was before, and less optimistic without Drew.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SJ5382 View Post
    After going through this, looks like I'm pretty high on our position players and not very high on our pitching.
    Wow very high on Lagares. I would be thrilled if he put up those numbers in those few games. Projecting a big ERA season for Niese and a lot of innings from Gee too. I think Gee will get either hurt or be the odd man out when Montero is ready.

  10. #10
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    Gee doesn't follow the Magoo factor. How dare you.


    TATAR SAUCE

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    Wow very high on Lagares. I would be thrilled if he put up those numbers in those few games. Projecting a big ERA season for Niese and a lot of innings from Gee too. I think Gee will get either hurt or be the odd man out when Montero is ready.
    In a way, I'm just being optimistic that we'll have at least ONE guy that can get us 30+ starts and IMO Gee is the only one that has proved to be capable of that. I really would love to see Niese put together a full, healthy season.

    If Gee is the odd man out, I think we'll be in great shape with our SP's.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-fan-projections/

    Click to start doing your own if you'd like.

    Was a pretty fun exercise to do. Here are my projections. Added Drew for fun but the projections are the same without him:

    Hitters



    Pitchers(don't pay attention to W/L)


    What do you guys think? I think I am slightly optimistic with some of these, but I don't think any of these are unattainable.
    I think you are bing overly optimistic when looking at the big picture... even with your revisions. Just too many guys playing up to there potential. Every season is filled with dissappointments and I see none of our major players having any semblance of a truly dissappointing season in your projections.

    Individually, they are fine for most players. But on the whole, your projections are a reach.

    I would say that the one guy you are really reaching on right now is Mejia... if I had to point to one guy in particular.

    In fact, the rotation as a whole is too optimistic. I doubt our starting rotation will perform that well. Again, some of the individual projections here aren't bad, but for the group as a whole its just a reach to project that many players to succeed and do well.

    I mean, the only starting pitchers you are projecting to have an era over 4.00 are Gee and Degrom... and a 4.25 era isn't even that bad. And on top of that you have three guys with an era at 3.25 with Mejia, Colon, and Thor. That is truly optimistic. I don't think any of our starters will have an era at 3.25. One of them could do have an era in that area, but I highly doubt we'll see 3 or even 2.

    The bullpen projections are a reach too. Not a lot of innings in there of over 4.00 era. I don't see it going down like that.

    If our pitching is that good this year, we are winning over 90 games.

    I don't see it happening.
    Last edited by Wrigheyes4MVP; 01-17-2014 at 12:18 PM.


    We chose Duda

    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by SJ5382 View Post
    After going through this, looks like I'm pretty high on our position players and not very high on our pitching.



    I find these projections to be FAR more realistic.

    I don't agree with all of the individual projections, but as a whole its seems more realistic to me.


    We chose Duda

    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    I think you are bing overly optimistic when looking at the big picture... even with your revisions. Just too many guys playing up to there potential. Every season is filled with dissappointments and I see none of our major players having any semblance of a truly dissappointing season in your projections.

    Individually, they are fine for most players. But on the whole, your projections are a reach.

    I would say that the one guy you are really reaching on right now is Mejia... if I had to point to one guy in particular.

    In fact, the rotation as a whole is too optimistic. I doubt our starting rotation will perform that well. Again, some of the individual projections here aren't bad, but for the group as a whole its just a reach to project that many players to succeed and do well.

    I mean, the only starting pitchers you are projecting to have an era over 4.00 are Gee and Degrom... and a 4.25 era isn't even that bad. And on top of that you have three guys with an era at 3.25 with Mejia, Colon, and Thor. That is truly optimistic. I don't think any of our starters will have an era at 3.25. One of them could do have an era in that area, but I highly doubt we'll see 3 or even 2.

    The bullpen projections are a reach too. Not a lot of innings in there of over 4.00 era. I don't see it going down like that.

    If our pitching is that good this year, we are winning over 90 games.

    I don't see it happening.
    Basically the point is, if we get Drew, guys stay healthy and play up pretty well overall, we can make the playoffs and win around 90 games. If our main guys like Wright, d'Arnaud, or anyone our outfielders get hurt, then obviously not.

    I think my offensive projections are pretty realistic except for maybe d'Arnaud and Ike since they are unproven. I guess I am just more optimistic in regards to our defensive ability as a whole. I think our outfield defense will be sick with 3 CFs out there at the same time.

    As for the pitching, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the ERA. They only give you the option of 2.25, 2.75, 3.25, 3.75, 4.25, and 4.75. 4.25 ERA in Citi Field is terrible, and 3.75 ERA is about average. 3.25 ERA is above average. Knowing this, our staff looks average to above average(once Montero and Thor come up). I would pay more attention to the K/BB, fWAR, and starters. I just BS'd the relievers and those projections have no weight at all.

    I truly think Mejia will put up the numbers if he stays healthy, that's probably where I am too optimistic -- his health. I do think 150 IP is attainable though.

    If you think I'm optimistic, you should look at our projections from other fans.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-fan-projections/

    Click to start doing your own if you'd like.

    Was a pretty fun exercise to do. Here are my projections. Added Drew for fun but the projections are the same without him:

    Hitters



    Pitchers(don't pay attention to W/L)


    What do you guys think? I think I am slightly optimistic with some of these, but I don't think any of these are unattainable.
    Are you expecting Gee to be either traded or injured? Aside from the fact that you are completely ignoring Gee's Magoo factor by predicting a 4.25 ERA, you only expect 138 innings.


    Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.
    -Sun Tzu

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