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  1. #1
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    Dillon Gee Has a Confusing Season

    Dillon Gee Has a Confusing Season

    We statheads like when we can put things into tidy boxes. Pitcher X posts Y peripherals for expected result of Z. Buy or donít buy accordingly. But not every pitcher is polite enough to reveal his true nature to us. That doesnít mean we canít leverage him for fantasy purposes; it just means that itís hard to know how to leverage him.

    Thatís the case with Dillon Gee. He looked easy enough to understand after 2012, when he posted a decent strikeout rate (7.96 K/9), strong walk rate (2.38 BB/9), generated ground balls over half the time, and posted a tolerable 4.10 ERA that was worse than his 3.54 xFIP. But he took a step back in 2013. His ERA improved to 3.62, this time with a 4.07 xFIP, but his strikeout rate plummeted to 6.42 K/9. Itís hard to roster a pitcher with that low of a strikeout rate in 5◊5 leagues.

    Within those 2013 numbers is a lot of noise. First and foremost, Gee reportedly pitched much if not all of the season with elbow tendinitis. Itís tough to even guess how much this injury affected his performance because we donít even know the start and end dates. For what itís worth, Gee is considered to have a 37 percent chance to land on the disabled list in 2014 according to Jeff Zimmerman, but thatís only relevant if you plan to draft him.

    April was Geeís worst month and he also posted poor results over most of May before settling down. Interestingly, were it not for a .394 BABIP, May probably would have been his best month. Gee was solid for the remainder of the season. Beginning in June, he pitched to an ERA under 3.00 although his FIP and xFIP were still in the upper 3′s.



    His poor April performance is mirrored by an average velocity just above 88 mph. Thatís really just capturing two starts where his velocity was particularly low (87 mph) and it seems possible that his elbow was a bit more painful those days than others. The rest of the season shows consistent variation between 88 and 90 mph.



    Gee has a deep five pitch repertoire that he varies based on the handedness of the batter. None of his pitches stand out as particularly dominant, instead he leverages his deep repertoire to full effect. His change-up is probably his best pitch for delivering positive results. Heís had trouble with lefties throughout his short career. They walk nearly twice as often against him as right-handers and they also hit substantially more home runs. Those rates are true for both his career and 2013. As such, fantasy owners should avoid spot starts against lefty heavy lineups.

    That takes us to his utility in fantasy leagues. With his spotty track record, he should be available on the waiver wire in standard 12-team leagues. A few owners may draft him for his 3.60 ERA, especially if they remember that he posted ERAís above 5.00 in April and May. Let them. His inability to reliably record an average strikeout rate makes it inadvisable to own him outright. Not when the remainder of his profile is also slightly below average.

    Gee has shown a bit of a home run problem over his 500 innings, with a career 10.4% HR/FB ratio. If last seasonís decline in ground ball rate to 43 percent doesnít improve in 2014, heíll allow a few too many home runs for comfort. As such, I recommend that you turn to Gee as a spot starter at pitcher friendly ballparks (average or lower home run park factor) against right-handed leaning lineups.

    Gee was worth nearly $4 last season according to Zach Sanders Ė more than Ivan Nova who I recently talked up as a good player to stash. With that in mind, it may seem that Iím being too harsh with my evaluation. Unfortunately for Gee, the data indicate that we should expect an ERA above 4.00 next season. That makes him a below average contributor in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, with wins being the usual wild card that they are.

    Thereís nothing wrong with spending your last dollar on Gee to round out your rotation. For owners in deep leagues where Gee is worthy of a more permanent consideration, donít forget to pair him with an elite strikeout reliever (or two). Gee does share some characteristics with Nova in that heís equally talented across all the standard stats. Unlike Nova whoís essentially average across the board, Gee is a bit below average. Geeís platoon splits also open up the opportunity to leverage him in scenarios where heíll outperform his overall stats. Nova doesnít come with that option.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/dil...fusing-season/


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  2. #2
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    Are those 2014 projections based solely on 2013 or do they include 2012 as well? Because if they're (ERA above 4.00, low K rate, etc.) based on 2013 alone, I'd say they're negatively skewed due to the injury last year.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY_Heartbreak View Post
    Are those 2014 projections based solely on 2013 or do they include 2012 as well? Because if they're (ERA above 4.00, low K rate, etc.) based on 2013 alone, I'd say they're negatively skewed due to the injury last year.
    I think, now that he fully recovered, Gee is going to have a great 2014. Of course, it is just the Mets' luck that they will trade him and he'll have this monster season for another team. Very under rated talent.
    "There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die."

  4. #4
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    He is a 4.00 era type pitcher.

    I don't know what anyone else is expecting from him, but I wouldn't expect much better than that.


    Jew You Believe In Miracles?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    He is a 4.00 era type pitcher.

    I don't know what anyone else is expecting from him, but I wouldn't expect much better than that.
    Gee's Magoo factor suggests that he is closer to a 3.50 ERA type pitcher, perhap even better. We'll see.
    Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.
    -Sun Tzu

  6. #6
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    Gee is super under-valued.


    Minute Rice: Put him in the bullpen, warm him up, and he's ready to serve.

  7. #7
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    I don't agree with that.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    I don't agree with that.
    You don't agree with Magoo Factor?

    Seems legit to me.

    It might be real.

    I guess we'll have to wait and see.


    Jew You Believe In Miracles?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    You don't agree with Magoo Factor?

    Seems legit to me.

    It might be real.

    I guess we'll have to wait and see.
    He only believes in made up stats like FIP and wOBA, and CYA.
    Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.
    -Sun Tzu

  10. #10
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    What I've seen from Gee, he looks to be an excellent back end of the rotation starter. A bonafide solid number 4 and a guy who can fill in admirably as a number 3 once in awhile. This seems to be more than what the Mets expected from him back when he was drafted and his first few years in the minors. That said, I see no reason why Gee can't win 12 to 15 games if given the run support, but more importantly, the outfield defense support that he should have in 2014. Slot him in as number 4 starter behind Colon, Niese and Wheeler and let him shine. ERA ought to be lower than 4.00 and perhaps around 3.50 as someone else mentioned. Now let's just find our number 5 starter and let our phenoms work their magic in AAA to force the Mets hands in July 2014 or so.

  11. #11
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    Dillon Gee Has a Confusing Season

    A lot of great analysis to conclude that Gee is a decent 4th starter.

    We'll Leave a Light On For You


    Believers: METMANYAK, FoC, Gotta, WrigheyesMVP, Mr. Koobs

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Magoo View Post
    He only believes in made up stats like FIP and wOBA, and CYA.
    FIP and wOBA have proven to have correlation from one season to the next

    For example, from 2007 to 2013, with a minimum of 50 innings, the correlation between one year's FIP and the next year's FIP is .476.

    And for wOBA against it is .406

    *http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tool-...t-correlation/

    Does the Magoo Factor hold up to these basic tests? If not, then there is, really, no reason to 'believe in' it.

  13. #13
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    Well, to be fair, on a best fit line, ~.500 isn't really that strong.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    FIP and wOBA have proven to have correlation from one season to the next

    For example, from 2007 to 2013, with a minimum of 50 innings, the correlation between one year's FIP and the next year's FIP is .476.

    And for wOBA against it is .406

    *http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tool-...t-correlation/

    Does the Magoo Factor hold up to these basic tests? If not, then there is, really, no reason to 'believe in' it.
    Magoo'd


    Jew You Believe In Miracles?!?!

    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by GottaBelieve View Post
    A lot of great analysis to conclude that Gee is a decent 4th starter.
    Pretty much.

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