Damn our bullpen is deep!
Damn our bullpen is deep!
Just signed Jamey wright too. He pitched well last season. I'm happy with our additions this offseason thus far. Bullpen is definitely improved on paper. Just need that ace starter and fill out the bench and lets go to work!
Wright to a minor league deal, NRI?
EDIT: Nevermind, major league contract.
Dodgers Fan since 1982
That leaves the Dodger bullpen looking something like:
Closer - Kenley Jansen 68.3 innings, 13.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.18 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 1.2 WAR
HL R - Brian Wilson 32.3 innings, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.27 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 0.3 WAR
HL L - Paco Rodriguez 46.7 innings, 10.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.02 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 0.4 WAR
ML L - JP Howell 50.7 innings, 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.42 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 0.1 WAR
ML R - Chris Perez 55.7 innings, 8.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.88 ERA, 4.12 FIP, -0.1 WAR
LL R - Jamey Wright 42 innings, 7.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.61 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 0.1 WAR
LL R - Brandon League 61.7 innings, 6.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.76 ERA, 3.72 FIP, -0.1 WAR
With the following waiting in AAA
Chris Withrow - 64.3 innings, 9.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 3.58 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.1 WAR
Jose Dominguez - 49.3 innings, 8.9 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 4.15 ERA, 4.15 FIP -0.1 WAR
Onelki Garcia 47.7 innings, 8.0 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 4.37 ERA, 4.53 FIP, -0.4 WAR
Scott Elbert - 24.3 innings, 8.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.52 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 0.0 WAR
Javy Guerra - 55.3 innings, 7.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.98 ERA, 3.95 FIP, -0.2 WAR
*Combined projections from STEAMER, Oliver, and ZiPS
Withrow gets bumped to AAA
Elbert and Guerra are out of options and will have to be released or traded.
And Rule 5 pick Seth Rosin doesn't look to have a spot so the Dodgers will have to give him (and $25,000) back or work out a trade.
Shoulda known it'd be Wright.
Last edited by filihok; 12-23-2013 at 07:29 PM.
I hope Dominguez gets time. Don't want to see him get wasted in AAA.
Have no clue why we'd use Jamey ****ing Wright over Withrow and or Dominguez
I haven't seen anything on Wright. Anyone got a link?
I was posting about this in the offseason thread but I think this could be a good signing. I don't know much about advanced stats but we got a guy with 123 saves on 140 tries in the last 4 seasons as a 7th inning guy. At the very least there is possible upside with the signing. I'll bet they paid him around $5 mil per but at least it's just 1 year in case he busts. It is crazy how much the team pays for bullpen pitching tho.
We should expect an average reliever to 'save' 75-80% of games in which they only have a 1 run lead. A higher percentage if it's a 2 or 3 run lead.
Save percentage is, basically, meaningless.
Kevin Gregg saved 33 of 38 games this season.
Do you think Kevin Gregg is good?
After all, saves are all opportunity.
Future Hall of Shamers:
(1) B.A.L.C.O. Barroids (2) Mark McJuicer (3) Jose Chem-seco (4) Rafael Palmeiroids (5) Ken Chem-initi (6) Jason Gi-andro (7) Ryan Fraud (8) Muscle Melk (9) Woman-Ram (10) Shammy Sosa (11) Roger Clear-mens (12) A-Roid
I think that 30% were 2-run saves - 42 games
and the other 20% were 3-run saves - 28 games
An average pitcher pitching a shutout inning 75% of the time would save
75% of the 70 games with
75% of the 42 games
75% of the 28 games
Thats 105 saves and 35 possible blown saves
And say when he gives up a run he gives up 1 run 50% of the time.
In the 18 remaining 1 run games he'd blow all the saves. 0 remaining save opps
In the 10 remaining 2 run games he'd save 5 of them. 5 remaining save opps
In the 7 remaining 3 run games he'd save all of them. 7 remaining save opps
That's now 110 saves
And say he gives up 2 runs 30% of the time when he gives up a run.
Of the 5 remaining 2 run games he'd blow all of them. 0 remaining save opps
Of the 7 remaining 3 run games he'd blow 2 of them. Saving 5. 2 remaining save opps.
Giving up 3 runs he'd blow up every save.
Note: I totally made up the numbers above. If anyone wants to find the real numbers, feel free.
We'd expect an average pitcher to save something like 115 out of 140 games. That's 82%.
Saving 88% of games just isn't that remarkable.