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View Poll Results: Rate the Strength and Likelihood of the Moves

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  • Strength: Back-to-Back Titles

    2 8.00%
  • Strength: Another October Run

    15 60.00%
  • Strength: Contending for a WC

    5 20.00%
  • Strength: Also-Ran

    3 12.00%
  • Strength: Protected Draft Choice for 2015

    0 0%
  • Likelihood: Are you Ben Cherrington?

    0 0%
  • Likelihood: Reasonable

    9 36.00%
  • Likelihood: A few off-target thoughts

    5 20.00%
  • Likelihood: More bad than good

    2 8.00%
  • Likelihood: Just quit already

    3 12.00%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    Rate the Sim: Bagwell368 as GM

    Before ST sign:

    Grant Balfour: 2 years for $9.75M, mutual option 1 yr for $5.75M, buyout $.5k. One of the best set-up guys in the game.

    Jeff Niemann - $3M ‘14 + $4.25M for ’15 if he appears in more than 20 games in ’14 (Majors & Minors combined). Oft injured, but experience in AL East. A fairly young vet at age 30, Young could be key 6th SP.

    Rajai Davis - $2.75M 1 year (he wants to be full time, but with a LHH rookie in front of him he figures to get all LHS, PH for JBJ, Pinch base running, and some action vs RHP).

    Eric Chavez: $4.25M for ’14. Just need him for about 55-70 starts (unless WMB hurt or dealt), maybe some PH. Have to overpay a bit, since he likes the Diamonbacks.

    Ceasar Izturis: $875k for ‘14. Back-up/late inning guy for the kid, banjo bat.

    Napoli - $29M for 2 years, mutual option in ‘16 for $15M or $1M buyout

    During ST:

    Trade Lackey, Peavy, Webster, RDLR, Nava, Brentz, Betts in 4 way (Lackey, Peavey, Nava to contenders – 2 high specs back to Marlins (1 ML top 15-50 types), Webster, RDLR, Brentz, Betts to Marlins for Stanton.

    As part of deal Stanton signs 7/$122.5M deal ($17.5M per). It sounds low because we’re buying Stanton’s arb years (3 of them) for more than the arb years will ever get him, and a good salary for the 4 following years when he’d be a FA.

    After opening day:

    Lester signs 5 year/$117.5M extension ($23.5M per). ’18 + ’19 combined over 250 innings, 6th year vested at $27.5M. AAV $23.5M starts in ’15.

    Other: Still a good chance that we could deal Dempster at the deadline, along with a pen arm or two – not clear now. This budget allows more money to be added if needed for ’14.

    Summary: Besides dealing for Stanton, pretty much just patching holes.

    Line-up:

    vs LHS --- vs RHS

    Victorino Victorino
    Pedroia Pedroia
    Ortiz Ortiz
    Stanton Stanton
    Chavez Napoli
    Napoli XB
    AJP WMB.
    XB Ross (note I don’t believe in platooning catchers, but it looks good)
    Davis JBJ

    This line-up is straight death vs LHP. Lower 1/3 vs RHP a bit weak.

    Budget:

    My Red Sox budget for 2014: $177,050.00. Can’t push it to allow for other moves, and Lesters AAV goes from $9.37M this year to $23.5M in 2015 and beyond.

    I list my projected 40 man roster, and all AAV numbers, plus extras:

    Bennies $10.8M
    Annual payment to Dodgers $3,900,000.00 for Gonzalez deal

    SP: 7: $34.95M

    Dempster: $13.25M
    Lester: $9.37M
    Buchholz: $7.75M
    Jeff Niemann - $3M
    Doubront - .58M
    Workman .5M
    Ranaudo .5M

    RP: 11 $21.025M

    Balfour $5.125M
    Uehara: $4.25M
    Breslow: $3.13M
    Miller: (Arb: $1.9M)
    Morales: (Arb: $1.8M)
    Badenhop: (Arb: $1.95M)
    Tazawa: (Arb: $1.1M)
    Britton – .5M
    Villarreal – 502k
    Wilson - .5M
    Wright - .5M

    OF/DH: (9) $58.05M

    Stanton: $17.5M
    Ortiz: $17M
    Victorino: $13M
    Gomes: $5M
    Rajai Davis $2.75M
    Carp – Arb: $1.3M
    Bradley .5M
    Castellanos - .5M +
    Hassan .5M +

    C/INF: 13 $48.325M

    AJP $8.25M
    Ross: $3.1M
    Napoli: $15M
    Pedroia: $13.3M
    Eric Chavez $4.25M
    Izturis $875k
    Middlebrooks .55M
    Bogaerts - .5M
    Lavarnway - .5M
    Vazquez - .5M
    Butler - .5M +
    Holt - .5M
    Cecchini - .5M

    Key: + = liable not to be on 40 man by end of the year

  2. #2
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    I like the general idea behind it. But no way Stanton cost that much. That's 7 players for one. The Sox would be ridiculous to do that

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ruckus16969 View Post
    I like the general idea behind it. But no way Stanton cost that much. That's 7 players for one. The Sox would be ridiculous to do that
    Really? I actually wasn't sure it was enough. The specs we give up aren't elite, so the fact that it's 7 doesn't matter. The hypothetical specs from the third team will have to be very enticing fir Miami.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by ruckus16969:27540026
    I like the general idea behind it. But no way Stanton cost that much. That's 7 players for one. The Sox would be ridiculous to do that
    I actually think that's on the low end for Stanton.


    lol, small kid got tripped by a tuba player

  5. #5
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    No way the Marlins would trade Stanton for our spare parts. And we'd need at least a 27-man roster to fit all of those bench players on the major league team.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaudBall View Post
    Really? I actually wasn't sure it was enough. The specs we give up aren't elite, so the fact that it's 7 doesn't matter. The hypothetical specs from the third team will have to be very enticing fir Miami.
    That's what I was going for. Trying to find contenders hungry for vet SP's to put on the top half of their rotation who would kick back the prime time picks that Miami wants.

    Young corner OF's with big time production bats have become quite rare lately. They are going to get a king's ransom when they deal him.

    Also in order to keep the budget in order I had to deal some big salary away, not just kids on minor league deals.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walligans View Post
    No way the Marlins would trade Stanton for our spare parts. And we'd need at least a 27-man roster to fit all of those bench players on the major league team.
    Firstly the specs they get (2) are not 100% sure to be ML players on Day 1. Brentz, Betts certainly are not ML ready. RDLR and Webster could go either way.

    Nothing keeps Miami from moving players off the bottom half of their roster to other teams, the minors, or the streets in favor of what they got in the deal.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  8. #8
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    Im more concerned with the fact that this is basically gutting the rotation. Beyond Lester and Doubront and the 2/3 of a season you will get from Buch, its pretty much duct tape veterans and guys who havent yet established themselves. Im all for giving them that chance, but id feel more comfortable keeping one of peavy/lackey and chucking other prospects as necessary, allowing Ranaudo and Workman to compete for the fifth slot. Having both niemann and Buch makes that hard, and dempsters time here should be done after last year

    That being said, that lineup you pose is formidable and probably a pretty good best case scenario as to how to upgrade offensively. your side piece FAs are good fits, from Davis, Niemann and Balfour (FWIW, would rather have him than Mujica for that $). very good sim

  9. #9
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    Not too shabby just disagree on a couple things.

    1) Not really interested in Stanton and that deal kinda kills the pitching depth in the short term and those 3 prospects while not exactly "untouchable" type guys, Those 3 are still interesting.

    2) Lesters 5 yr extension that will be from ages 31-35 (Possibly 36). He was obviously lights out in October however the past 2 seasons his rate stats have been pretty average. I just think 5-6 yr deals in the pitchers 30's carries a bit of risk.

    I'd personally wait it out some, you could argue the closer we are away from free agency the more he will demand...But my argument is his value is at a high.



  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Firstly the specs they get (2) are not 100% sure to be ML players on Day 1. Brentz, Betts certainly are not ML ready. RDLR and Webster could go either way.

    Nothing keeps Miami from moving players off the bottom half of their roster to other teams, the minors, or the streets in favor of what they got in the deal.
    Go back and read what I said nice and slow.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by rollins94 View Post
    Im more concerned with the fact that this is basically gutting the rotation. Beyond Lester and Doubront and the 2/3 of a season you will get from Buch, its pretty much duct tape veterans and guys who havent yet established themselves. Im all for giving them that chance, but id feel more comfortable keeping one of peavy/lackey and chucking other prospects as necessary, allowing Ranaudo and Workman to compete for the fifth slot. Having both niemann and Buch makes that hard, and dempsters time here should be done after last year

    That being said, that lineup you pose is formidable and probably a pretty good best case scenario as to how to upgrade offensively. your side piece FAs are good fits, from Davis, Niemann and Balfour (FWIW, would rather have him than Mujica for that $). very good sim
    I see it as essential that the Sox deal high priced pitching while it has value/shelf life from a business angle, and also in terms of blocking young specs.

    Nothing says Niemann will be ready either, so Workman, etc. get their chances.

    Thanks.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    Lesters 5 yr extension that will be from ages 31-35 (Possibly 36). He was obviously lights out in October however the past 2 seasons his rate stats have been pretty average. I just think 5-6 yr deals in the pitchers 30's carries a bit of risk.
    I think Lesters issues have been explained. 3 pitching coaches in 3 years. When he pitched to Salty in those two years it was a big drop compared to the other catchers. He still pitched 205 innings a year every year pretty much, and obviously has no damage. He's also got a solid chance to be the greatest LHP in Sox history, so in the way the team has kept Yaz, Rice, Ortiz, etc. there is that career Sox angle to consider. I think if he has a 4.0 or better rWAR season this year in the open market he could hit $25M per- or more.

    I'd personally wait it out some, you could argue the closer we are away from free agency the more he will demand...But my argument is his value is at a high.[/QUOTE]


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walligans View Post
    No way the Marlins would trade Stanton for our spare parts. And we'd need at least a 27-man roster to fit all of those bench players on the major league team.
    Spare parts?

    Clearly if they are getting 2 very high specs out of the pitchers/Nava they would be projected as starting candidates. Webster would seem to be a starter and RDLR could well be in the pen. Brentz and Betts are longer term pieces that may be ready to debut in 2015 and 2017 respectively - or just deal off if they like.

    What's your deal for Stanton? XB, Cecchini, Swihart, Barnes, and Ranaudo?


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  14. #14
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    If that's the deal that lands us Stanton, I do it all day.
    Perfection.

  15. #15
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    In 2007 the Tigers sent the following players to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera (and a salary-dumped Dontrelle Willis):

    • Dallas Trahern: 34th round pick who jumped the system after a slow start; never BA ranked and still hasn't broken into MLB
    • Burke Badenhop (yes, that Badenhop): 19th round pick who moved up the chain and broke into MLB after the deal
    • Frankie De La Cruz: Amateur FA (2001) signed out of HS and traded after 5yrs in the minors; had a 6.75ERA, 2.10 whip when dealt
    • Cameron Maybin: Prize A of the deal, a first round pick who was ranked in BA's top 10 for MLB
    • Andrew Miller: Prize B of the deal, another first round pick (2006) ranked "closest to MLB" when drafted and a BA top 10
    • Mike Rabello: 4th round pick (2001) who enjoyed a cup of coffee before the deal


    Of the six players sent (in return for 2), only two were ever ranked in the BA top 100 players. They were extremely high (#8, 10) but the others were not all that well regarded. Trahern was fringe top 10 and Badenhop a top 25 for the Tigers system at the time of the deal.

    I believe it's worth reviewing the past to get some perspective here. Cabrera was similarly viewed at the time of the deal. I remember Gammons rambling on about his HR totals at a young age and comparing him to elite power hitters in the HOF. There were concerns about his weight and work rate. The deal also required an enormous salary dump (Willis) to be absorbed.

    How do Cabrera and Stanton compare?
    Cabrera (age 24): .327/.407/.588 with 227 HR in 5.5yrs; averaged 158 games/yr in his full seasons
    Stanton (age 23): .265/.354/.535 with 117 HR in 4yrs; averaged 122 games/yr

    Head to head Cabrera dwarfs Stanton at the time of potential deals. The eras are somewhat different; power is a scarcer commodity today across MLB. Still, I cannot see how that in any way accounts for the discrepancy in the deals:

    Lackey/Peavy represent more than what was offered in the Cabrera deal. While they are shorter-term solutions, the proven (and at a reasonably high level of success) track records exceeds what Maybin and Miller could promise.

    The shine is off Webster in the eyes of many. While his MLB performance (and 2013 in general) was uneven, he also flashed some brilliant stuff. By some objective measures he did things that even Scherzer did not equal in (e.g., 20 or 21 swings and misses against DET). He's a top 100 MLB and top 10 farm system talent (in the top-rated system in MLB readiness).

    De La Rosa is tougher to gauge because he's expired his rookie eligibility. He's a top 20 talent in the system, probably in the mid-teens.

    Betts is another top 10 talent who may crack the bottom of the BA top 100 in the pre-2014 list.

    Brentz is a top 20 system talent who fell out of the top 100 when he shot himself in the leg (more because of stupidity than anything).

    Nava is hard to categorize as well. He's the little engine that could, and even while finishing with some top 10 hitting numbers I don't view him as much more than a nice complementary piece. He's accomplished more in MLB than Maybin did and represents more than any of the peripheral talent dealt for Cabrera.


    When I roll all that together I see the Red Sox dealing significantly more than what the Marlins got for a much better hitter. I am not at all trying to downplay Stanton either. He's a good hitter and I want him on the club if the Sox can pull it off. I am simply trying to objectively weigh the deal and it looks like we're giving up too much. Those who suggest we're not giving up enough are being absurd.

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