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  1. #1
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    NFL's 5 Luckiest Teams this season

    NFL's five luckiest teams this season:

    5. Seattle
    4. Arizona
    3. New England
    2. New York Jets
    1. Kansas City

    5. Seattle Seahawks
    Actual Winning Percentage .900
    Pythagorean Winning Percentage .770
    Record in One-Possession Games 5-1
    Strength of Schedule .407
    Fumble Recovery Percentage 8.7
    Turnover Differential +7

    The Seahawks have been remarkably lucky not only in whom they’ve played this year, but when they’ve played them. They drew the Texans right as Matt Schaub was falling apart, a much easier game than one against Case Keenum would’ve been, and only won because of a big mistake on Schaub’s part.

    They got some similar luck against the Rams, when Kellen Clemens started for the injured Sam Bradford, against the Titans with Ryan Fitzpatrick filling in for Jake Locker, and even against the Falcons when an earlier matchup might’ve meant defending Julio Jones and a team that was still motivated and engaged.

    Despite this, they’ve had to rely on quite a bit of luck to win the games that they’ve won. We mentioned the Schaub pick-six, but the Rams game easily could’ve swung on that last-minute goal-line stand, as could the Week 1 game against Carolina on any number of plays. The ball bounced Seattle’s way in those games, if it starts to go against them we might see them drop two or three games down the stretch.

    4. Arizona Cardinals
    Actual Winning Percentage .556
    Pythagorean Winning Percentage .466
    Record in One-Possession Games 3-1
    Strength of Schedule .518
    Fumble Recovery Percentage 62.9
    Turnover Differential -1

    Cards fumble recovery

    Arizona’s luck has come largely on fumbles. Whereas the normal team typically recovers around 50 percent, the Cardinals are at almost 63 percent. This makes a huge difference when you have a quarterback as turnover prone as Carson Palmer, and it shows in the stats: despite Palmer’s 15 interceptions, Arizona’s turnover differential is only -1.

    The schedule has also done Arizona several favors. Reggie Bush missed Week 2’s matchup, effectively taking away the Detroit running game. They were also lucky enough to catch Mike Glennon in his first start, and played Matt Ryan without Julio Jones, Roddy White, or an effective Steven Jackson (and it showed, as Ryan threw four interceptions).

    The good news for Arizona is that the schedule doesn’t figure to get much tougher. Jacksonville and Tennessee should be easy wins (to get them to seven), and even with the improved Nick Foles, the Cardinals should expect to take at least one of their two against St. Louis and Philadelphia. That would put them at 8-6 with San Francisco and Seattle looming. Win one, and a playoff spot is potentially theirs.

    3. New England Patriots
    Actual Winning Percentage .778
    Pythagorean Winning Percentage .666
    Record in One-Possession Games 4-2
    Strength of Schedule .434
    Fumble Recovery Percentage 62.5
    Turnover Differential +9

    Where to begin with these Patriots? Everyone wants to point to the Jets game as a reason that they’re unlucky, but they’re 7-2 despite that loss and their luck shows in pretty much every category. Despite a very easy schedule, several inferior opponents (the Bills, Jets and Falcons) have pushed the Patriots as far as they could handle. If one or two plays swing in each game, the Patriots could be 4-5, or even 3-6 if we throw the Saints game into the mix.

    They’ve also had remarkable turnover luck. Even though Tom Brady already has more interceptions through nine games than he had in the entire 2010 season, the Patriots have managed to win the turnover battle thanks to their luck with fumbles. They recover 12.5 percent more fumbles than average, and they’re intercepting more passes than they should because of the quarterbacks they’ve played (Geno Smith twice, Josh Freeman, E.J Manuel, 2013 Ben Roethlisberger).

    The bad news? This is all about to change. The Patriots travel to Carolina for a tough Monday Night matchup before a home date with Denver. They’ll be underdogs in both of those games, and will have three tough road games against the Texans, Dolphins and Ravens before the season ends. The Patriots are a lot closer to 10-6 than 13-3.

    2. New York Jets
    Actual Winning Percentage .556
    Pythagorean Winning Percentage .323
    Record in One-Possession Games 5-1
    Strength of Schedule .482
    Fumble Recovery Percentage 33.3
    Turnover Differential -10

    Let’s address the turnover differential first, as it has swung heavily against the Jets, but for explainable reasons. Geno Smith throws a ton of interceptions, and the Jets defense is built to stop the run rather than the pass, lowering their propensity for takeaways. As for the fumbles? Those are much harder to explain.

    Still, no team has had more luck than the Jets on seemingly random slip-ups. Two of their five wins came on questionable penalties (against the Patriots and Bucs), and all five came by a touchdown or less. Meanwhile, two of their losses have come by more than 25 points. The Jets are built to play low-scoring games, which tends to put the outcome in the hands of luck far more than any team can plan, but the amount the Jets have had has put them in a position to score an unlikely playoff spot.

    1. Kansas City Chiefs
    Actual Winning Percentage 1.000
    Pythagorean Winning Percentage .827
    Record in One-Possession Games 4-0
    Strength of Schedule .357
    Fumble Recovery Percentage 66.7
    Turnover Differential +15

    Was there any real question about who would be here? The Chiefs are not only the league’s luckiest team, they are the league’s luckiest team in almost every stat. They lead the league in point differential and difference between actual and Pythagorean winning percentage, they are the only undefeated team in close games, they have the league’s best turnover differential, and they have played the easiest schedule in football. The only category they don’t lead is fumble recovery percentage, in which they are second by less than one percent.

    Need an explanation? Just look at the quarterbacks Kansas City has faced: Blaine Gabbert, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum in his first start, Jason Campbell, and Jeff Tuel in his first start. You can’t ask for an easier slate than that. After Romo and excluding Vick due to injuries, the highest ranked passer (by quarterback rating) on that list is Terrelle Pryor at 30. How is that possible? Manning is 31, and Gabbert, Fitzpatrick, Keenum, Campbell and Tuel are all unranked because they haven’t played enough. That’s the Chiefs season in a nutshell.

    What quarterbacks will the Chiefs face in their next seven games? Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin III, Terrelle Pryor, Andrew Luck, and Philip Rivers. In other words, this string of luck is about to end. Expect the Chiefs to lose at least three of these games and cede the AFC West to Denver.

    http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/ar...teams/15064415
    Ya know what they say...sometimes its better to be lucky than good
    Here are 5 unluckiest teams in the NFL:

    5. Denver Broncos
    4. St Louis Rams
    3. San Diego Chargers
    2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    1. Atlanta Falcons.

    http://thesportspost.com/blogs/view/...luckiest-teams
    ^very accurate imo especially for Atlanta, TB and SD

  2. #2
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    Someone explain to me how the patriots are lucky when they lose AH to being a dumbass, lose mayo, wilfork,kelly, talib, amendola, gronkowski for prolonged periods of time.

    If youre saying they are lucky in the fact they won without those player understandable but at first they still had to be extremely unlucky to get into that situation

    Also broncos unlucky.

    whoever made that is smoking crack

  3. #3
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    This isn't going to go well.

    Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick walk into a bar... To watch Russell Wilson win the Super Bowl.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox47 View Post
    Someone explain to me how the patriots are lucky when they lose AH to being a dumbass, lose mayo, wilfork,kelly, talib, amendola, gronkowski for prolonged periods of time.

    If youre saying they are lucky in the fact they won without those player understandable but at first they still had to be extremely unlucky to get into that situation

    Also broncos unlucky.

    whoever made that is smoking crack
    Yea I don't think they account for injuries or FA departures/off field issues. Otherwise the Chargers would be #1 in the unlucky column and it wouldn't even be close.

    SD Chargers players are made out of glass. If you touch one or even look at him the wrong way, he's out for several weeks.

  5. 11-16-2013, 05:42 PM
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  6. #5
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    Chargers fans need to stop crying about how "unlucky" their team has been this year, Jesus lol




  7. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigCheese12 View Post
    Chargers fans need to stop crying about how "unlucky" their team has been this year, Jesus lol
    this year??? its something EVERY single year. They are Cowboys West.
    Quarterback Class of 2004 1st Round starters

  8. #7
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    I gaurentee none of these teams care if luck or not

  9. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigBlueCrew View Post
    this year??? its something EVERY single year. They are Cowboys West.
    lol well it seems like i've seen it more this year than years past.




  10. #9
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    Do both lists put injuries into account?????

    I would say team health is HUGE when factoring in the luckiest and unluckiest teams. Packers would take the cake on the unlucky one.

  11. #10
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    Are people getting mad at me thinking that I wrote the article?



    Only on PSD

  12. #11
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    It's like people don't know what pythag is. It doesn't take into account injuries. It's literally just point differential, your actual record vs. your expected record.
    Quote Originally Posted by Monta is beast View Post
    How do I think [Kevin] Love helps his team lose? Terrible defense, chucker, basically a of version if Monta

  13. #12
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    Everyone with a spreadsheet has a formula that according to them means something.
    Bill Parcells: "You are what your record says you are."

  14. #13
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    I just don't think any of this proves anything. If you think Atlanta isn't bad, and they're just unlucky you don't watch enough football.

  15. #14
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    LOL We trade multiple picks for Harvin, and he gets hurt for a significant amount of time, but yeah, we are lucky.
    Bringing her back!!!


  16. #15
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    Also is Pythagorean winning percentage the same formula it is in football as it is in baseball?

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