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  1. #1
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    The case against Shin-Soo Choo

    The case against Shin-Soo Choo

    he Mets have turned their attention to the offseason, amid expectations that the Wilpons will be spending like it’s 1998.

    And the apple of the Big Apple’s eye appears to be Shin-Soo Choo, the Reds right fielder who was second in the NL in on-base percentage. Choo is a fine player, and I can see why he will generate interest as a free agent, but when I look at Choo I see the next version of Jason Bay -- a 31-year-old outfielder with severe flaws coming of a year he is unlikely to replicate.

    The biggest problem with free agents -- particularly those coming off of great years -- is that it’s easy to assume that their most recent season is their true level of performance when it’s most likely not. The Mets can look at Choo’s .285/.423/.462 line and think he will repeat that for a few years, but what if his future performance is more in line with his 2011 performance: .283/.373/.441? Or even worse, 2010: .259/.344/.390.

    Considering Choo’s age, he’s much more likely to get worse than better. That would be palatable if he was starting from the level of a superstar, where he would hit the “very good” and “good” levels on his way down. But when you’re starting from “very good,” your decline phase gets ugly a lot quicker. (See "Bay, Jason".)

    Another other issue for Choo is that he’s useless against left-handed pitching, hitting .215/.347/.265 versus southpaws this season, not far off his career marks. While that OBP is respectable, it’s fueled by 13 hit-by-pitches. That’s actually a repeatable “skill,” but it also makes him more of an injury risk. Also, that slugging is putrid, so you can forget about extra-base hits against southpaws. You want to pay eight figures per year for that?

    “But he kills righties,” you might be thinking, and that’s true. The problem is that his weakness can be exploited by lefty relievers late in games, so it’s easy to imagine a situation when the Mets are actually playing meaningful September games and their second-best hitter can be neutralized by the Luis Avilans of the world.

    Furthermore, Great American Ballpark is a great place for left-handed hitters, with a home run factor of 126 for lefties in 2012. (In other words, lefties hit 26 percent more homers there than at an average park.) Citi Field had a home run factor of 92 for lefties that year, which means lefties homered 8 percent less frequently than at the average park. This plays out in Choo’s numbers, as he has a .948 OPS at home and .823 mark on the road. It’s worth remembering that Bay signed with the Mets after playing in Fenway Park, a perfect spot for right-handed power hitters. Citi Field, not so much.

    Choo would be leaving an environment perfectly suited to highlight his strengths and going to one that is almost certain to diminish them. Factor in his age and his impotence against lefties, and that’s the recipe for a free-agent disaster.

    The Mets are in good position to sign Choo because they have a protected draft pick. Therefore, they don’t have to give up their first-rounder to sign him, which makes him, or any high-profile free agent for that matter, a lot more attractive.

    He’d almost certainly be an upgrade over what the Mets have, but with all due respect to Andrew Brown and Lucas Duda, that’s faint praise. And when you consider that Hunter Pence just got a $90 million contract from the Giants without even testing the free-agent market, it’s probably going to take more than that to sign Choo.

    If the Mets end up giving Choo the $100-plus million it will likely take to sign him, I have a feeling their front office and fans are going to be severely disappointed. I know Mets fans are tired of waiting, but free agency is not a quick fix, and Choo is by no means the cure for what ails New York.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/met...medium=twitter


    “Ninety percent I’ll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I’ll probably waste.”
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  2. #2
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    I saw the title of this thread, and I thought he was being prosecuted for a crime
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
    Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain?
    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
    Dorothy: Yes, I guess you're right.

  3. #3
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    Ha. I started a thread about this a few months ago and had many people telling me I was nuts. This would have "Jason Bay signing" written all over it to me. I feel the same about looking at Choo vs. Ellisbury as I did when Bay and Holliday were the options we were looking at. I think Ellisbury would be a perfect leadoff hitter, doubles machine, and top rate defender. I feel like Choo's numbers would go down in every category

  4. #4
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    He reminds me more of Roberto Alomar than Jason Bay.

  5. #5
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    any kind of long term deal is going to be a mistake

    I don't think we need to be in a situation where we need to force moves because of what is available.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by DirtyJerZ View Post
    Ha. I started a thread about this a few months ago and had many people telling me I was nuts. This would have "Jason Bay signing" written all over it to me. I feel the same about looking at Choo vs. Ellisbury as I did when Bay and Holliday were the options we were looking at. I think Ellisbury would be a perfect leadoff hitter, doubles machine, and top rate defender. I feel like Choo's numbers would go down in every category
    Great analogy and completely agree. Ellsbury is going to be expensive but he'd hammer the gaps at Citi and fill a much needed leadoff spot.

  7. #7
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    The case against Shin-Soo Choo

    I just don't get why Met fans don't want to upgrade a position of need.

    Choo is not a perfect player, but he is in a considerable upgrade to what the **** they have.

    I guess the Mets should hold out till this so called perfect FA is available the guy who can do it all hit on the road as well as home and hit for power average and field great as well and hope he signs for less than market price because oh God forbid he asks for 100 million or more. No way should we give that money up because it will **** up the payroll flexibility they created and hold so dear to them.

  8. #8
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    The case against Shin-Soo Choo

    Looking at some of the stuff people write reminds me if those long lists of things chicks are looking for in a guy.

    Only player Met fans seem to want is a guy who can do it all.

    1. Hit well at home
    2. Hit well on the road
    3. Hit great on the fist half
    4. Hit great on the second half
    5. Hit great every month
    6. Hit righties
    7. Hit lefties
    8. Play great defense
    9. Have a great OBP
    10. Hit for power
    11. Don't be a show off
    12. Cost cheap
    13. Signs for less than three years
    14. Plays everyday
    15. Is under 30 years old
    Last edited by Sick Of It All; 10-09-2013 at 02:10 PM.

  9. #9
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    Jason Bay and Choo are completely different players. I don't see any new points brought up in this article that people didn't already know. Yes Choo has flaws but unless we get a Kemp, Tulo or CarGo he's the best option out there, other than Ellsbury.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    I just don't get why Met fans don't want to upgrade a position of need.

    Choo is not a perfect player, but he is in a considerable upgrade to what the **** they have.
    He is considerable upgrade to what they have. Is he an upgrade over anything they have continuously for 5 years? Not at 32
    I guess the Mets should hold out till this so called perfect FA is available the guy who can do it all hit on the road as well as home and hit for power average and field great as well and hope he signs for less than market price because oh God forbid he asks for 100 million or more. No way should we give that money up because it will **** up the payroll flexibility they created and hold so dear to them.
    Thats a nice rant and it sounds all well and good but its all hyperbole. I don't think anybody is waiting for the perfect option and I don't think in the past 15 years even with steroids it has ever been considered a good idea to give a 5 year deal to a 32 year old player.

    He's a better player than what we have now but will he be the best we can do continuously for the next 5 years?

  11. #11
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    All I want from Choo is get on base, have moderate power and play a decent LF.
    Is that to much to ask for.
    That 5th year is going to suck though.

    3. Hit great on the fist half
    Not sure the Mets want someone who doesn't fist all the way.


    “Ninety percent I’ll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I’ll probably waste.”
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Looking at some of the stuff people write reminds me if those long lists of things chicks are looking for in a guy.

    Only player Met fans seem to want is a guy who can do it all.

    1. Hit well at home
    2. Hit well on the road
    3. Hit great on the fist half
    4. Hit great on the second half
    5. Hit great every month
    6. Hit righties
    7. Hit lefties
    8. Play great defense
    9. Have a great OBP
    10. Hit for power
    11. Don't be a show off
    12. Cost cheap
    13. Signs for less than three years
    14. Plays everyday
    15. Is under 30 years old
    So instead they should go out and bang the first dude that shows up in a nice car. YOLO

  13. #13
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    Even Robinson Cano is imperfect. Yet despite that, Robinson Cano is still out of our price range. So even if there was a perfect free agent, not a shot in the world that we would be able to sign him.

    At some point in time, you've got to start biting the bullet with imperfect free agents. This craptastic offense isn't going to fix itself.
    Quote Originally Posted by NYG+Braves
    Im a Braves fan and im scared to face Harvey way more then Strasburgh. Lol strasburgh dont scare me at all compared to Harvey.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    Looking at some of the stuff people write reminds me if those long lists of things chicks are looking for in a guy.

    Only player Met fans seem to want is a guy who can do it all.

    1. Hit well at home
    2. Hit well on the road
    3. Hit great on the fist half
    4. Hit great on the second half
    5. Hit great every month
    6. Hit righties
    7. Hit lefties
    8. Play great defense
    9. Have a great OBP
    10. Hit for power
    11. Don't be a show off
    12. Cost cheap
    13. Signs for less than three years
    14. Plays everyday
    15. Is under 30 years old
    So instead they should go out and bang the first dude that shows up in a nice car. YOLO
    you just don't seem to get it.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by StoicSentry View Post
    Even Robinson Cano is imperfect. Yet despite that, Robinson Cano is still out of our price range. So even if there was a perfect free agent, not a shot in the world that we would be able to sign him.

    At some point in time, you've got to start biting the bullet with imperfect free agents. This craptastic offense isn't going to fix itself.
    is nice to go out hunting for dimes when the night starts, but is better to go home with a 7 than getting no ***** at all.

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