What do you think is the ceiling for this team this year? (And why)
And where/how do you honestly think they will finish? (And why)
What do you think is the ceiling for this team this year? (And why)
And where/how do you honestly think they will finish? (And why)
why: They won 57 games last year, yet they were 28th best freethrow shooting team. The also had a completely dismal start to the season due to long delay of getting into the groove of thing, and the terrible game scheduling. Point is, this team could have easily won 60+ last season. Secondly, everyone forgets we are a young developing team. We ARE the indiana pacers of the west. Our team is slowly but surely getting better each year. Here are some possibilities. Kenneth Becomes all star material this year. Wilson chandler becoems allstar material this year. Ty lawson becomes all star material. (if he comes back well from injury) gallo becomes allstar material. nate robinson shows up again in 2014, top 3 in sixth man of the year votings. Javale Mcgee finds his stride, becomes more than a 18 min energy player. Nuggets become a better defensive orientated team than 2012-13 (with iguadala). Oh and lets not forget quincaay miller. (starts to become productive)
Are all these things possible?? Very much so, that sounds like a winning team to me. this teams potential is top 3 i the league (and btw, before the first playoff game, nuggets were top 3 in the power rankings)
All the above + possiblitiy of misfortune= 50-32
Even if nuggets succumb to injuries of the like, or if players for sum reason do not develop (javale for instance). I still think this team is too talented to win less than 50 games..
Wow, seems like an optimist like me. And I can't really argue with too much with regards to player development.
So, IF Shaw is the player development coach we all hope he is, then the ceiling for this team is very high, a lot of talent on the roster. Though, for some reason, I am going into this season a little less enthusiastic about Nuggets prospects. I still think they will be competitive and might even have a better chance at winning a first round of the playoffs with this roster, my concern is with team chemistry.
How will Ty, Nate and Andre Miller split time at PG? Will one of them become a cancer in the locker room when they arent getting the playing time they think they should?
Manimal, Hickson, Arthur - Seems Arthur is third string PF but there are so many similarities between Hickson and Faried. Can they co-exist? I think they are basically interchangeable and this will benefit the Nuggets as long as both get their share of playing time. How does possible lack of PT affect Arthur (and Randolph).
SF is still very deep for Nuggets. Gallo, Chandler and Quincy Miller (Shaw likes his potential - comparing him to Paul George talent-wise). Chandler will be happy at the start of the season as he will be the clear starter, but what happens when Gallo returns to full strength?
We certainly lost some athleticism at SG but we definitely improved 3pt shooting and free throw shooting. Nuggets fans have craved a true 3pt threat for a long time and Foye may be that player. We may also see more of Fournier and Hamilton with Shaw as HC. Both better shooters than Iggy but certainly not as athletic or as good defensively.
We lost our most fundamental center (at least for regular season games) and replaced him with an athletic freak whose ceiling is unknown, Shaw made Hibbert an all star, so there is more hope than ever before that McGee will develop.
And, of course we have a new head coach. A complete unknown.
So what is the ceiling? If the stars align, and Shaw gets the most out of the players, I think we could be a 55 win team and even move beyond the first round of the playoffs.
Realistically, I think there are going to be some moves before the trade deadline once Shaw and the coaching staff figure out who they want to stick with. I really have a hard time seeing Andre Miller being satisfied with his role (limited) and he has not been shy to let the press know how he really feels. The log jam at PF could mean Miller is package with one of the PFs in a deadline trade. I think 47-50 wins and a lower seed in the playoffs.
Nuggets will still be a team to be reckoned with, especially at home. They are still one of the deepest teams in the NBA. This can be a blessing and a curse. Team chemistry will be key.
^ Yeh I'm optimistic as hell.
We ahve alot of intruiging weopons at our disposal.
Ty lawson - nate robinson : Very intruiging, havn't seen a team play with two point guards of this caliber together at the same time. Yes they are 'stupidly small', and all signs point to this being too much of a defensive nightmare. But again, they re both high caliber point garuds on the same team. two players with elite ball handling, passing, speed and scoring skills. When at the same time it could be a thing of beauty.
Kenneth Faried - JJ. Hickson : There are only a SMALL handful of players in this league who have have rodman styled games. By that i mean high energy, relentless rebounders, who will awe the crowd with there effort. And guys, we have two of those players.. on the same team. Imagine watching the 2nd quarter, faried and hickson come on together and literally grab every offesive rebound.. Every shot will be a bucket, hit or miss.
seriously though what other team has two elite rebounders like that
In response to poz. I agree, team chemistry is the key, i think we have the personal to be one of the most dangerous teams in the league, but in order for that to work, theres gotta be sum chemistry.
I like Shaw.
I REALLY like Shaw, he seems like a guy that can really maximize the talent on this team and get them playing bball the right way, so in that regard, I think this team can be pretty darn good.
PG: I think Ty could be a top 5 pg in the league, will he be? who knows, but his talent is immense and his impact on the game is immeasurable. I expect him to put up an all-star quality season even if he doesnt get voted in. I love the addition of Nate Rob, he can be an electric player and I wont hate the 2 pg lineup as much if its him and ty playing it cause they could be dynamic together, he could be a 6th man of the year candidate. I hate Andre Miller at this point, I hope him and Randolph get traded for anything
SG: I still believe in Fourniers potential, I just cant help but see the swagger he carries in a game that just has a star vibe to it, I trust Shaw to be a good judge of this and develop him the best way possible but I really hope he can win the starting job at some point or at least get 20+ minutes a game. Foye is a mediocre guard, but hes not bad, if used right he can play ok team D and hit a lot of 3's, we really need that to stretch the floor so that could be nice. One thing about shaw is that he really likes using his frontcourt players traditionally, so dont expect Chandler to see time at SG or Hamilton much either.
SF: Chandler is a top 20 SF in this league at the very very least, he is borderline top 10 at the best. Either way he is a quality starter and will do us proud til Gallos back. Gallo is the big Q, if he comes back and plays like he was never injured this team could be really good, but we dont know what to expect. I love that Shaw is seeing QMillers potential, anyone that watched the summer league would tell you that day in day out he was the best nugget there. His post D is getting pretty darn good. His main issue is that he doesnt have a clear role so isnt focusing on just one position to develop, I hope Shaw irons this out. Hamilton sadly looks like the odd man out and I doubt he is on this team after this year.
PF: What a logjam, but im ok with it, Faried is obviously the Manimal, if he gets better on D and adds a couple more post moves or mid range game he could be a top 10 PF, if he gets better enough maybe he gets close to top 5. I love the additions. Hickson is a beast rebounder and will save us from the lack of rebounding the team has when Farieds not in there. I like Arthur too, he is probably one of our best defenders and easily the best one at PF, he also has a pretty darn good mid range game. on any other nuggets team I would love to see him with 20 min a game but idk if thats possible. Randolph isnt that good, and clearly the odd man out in this logjam.
C:McGee......is unpredictable to say the least. Theres a chance Shaw can develop him and he becomes a top 10 C, since Shaw likes a traditional approach to the roles in the frontcourt I dont see Hickson or Faried playing much center. so Javale will probably get 30+min easy, this is a make or break year for him. Mozzie is a good backup big, im fine with giving him 15-18 min a game
Bottom line is there are a crap ton of questions about this team, and a lot of the players could be gone as Shaw figures out what he has and what he sees in the long term future. Best case scenario we could be a top 3 seed again at aound 55-58 wins. But stuff is going to go wrong and not all of these guys are going to develop to their potential, I see 48-52 wins and a 4-7 seed realistically. Worst case scenario we hover .500 and dont quite make the playoffs.
^Having watched all the pre-season games, i thought J.Hamilton proved to be the best player on that squad. Remember his continuos scoring streak. Don't get me wrong. I'm as hopeful and excited about Q.mMiller as any denver fan, but in the summer league J.Ham showed he could play. lETS JUST HOPE IT CAN TRANSLATE INTO THE NBA GAME
QMiller is super athletic, has good potential defense in the post and on the perimeter, has a good long range shot if left open, and can rebound well, im super stoked to see what he can do over the next couple years
Here is my take on the Nuggets this year. While I'm not at all happy with Connelly and some of the moves he's made, I still believe the Nuggets are in pretty damn good shape. I believe the key to this year is Wilson Chandler, who is imo better than Gallo and Iggy when he's at his best because he does everything so well. He can get hot (that okc game), he can defend and he can rebound. He can play the 2-4 and can defend all those positions as well. I think Gallo and Chandler can be just as effective as Gallo/Iggy or Wilson/Iggy, we never really got to see those 3 players healthy for long.
One of the things I recently realized is that the Nuggets bad contracts aren't as terrible as I thought. Nate Robinson will likely opt out next summer, Hickson is completely tradeable for 5 mil a year, Foye's is only 2 guaranteed, we will have cap space in the future. Looking at our roster its obvious that this team needs an athletic defensive minded SG. Someone like Shumpert would be awesome but he's not available. As such, I think we will likely make a trade when Gallo comes back, and trade something like Hamilton, one or two of Arthur/Faried/Hickson/Randolph and maybe some fillers for a SG so that Fournier can come in off the bench.
Apparently Shaw really likes Quincy Miller and says he reminds him of Paul George which is music to my ears. Q was a top recruit out of HS until he tore his ACL and apparently he has all the tools to be great. He is long and can shoot, I hope he can play next to Gallo at somepoints in the future with Gallo at the 4 so we can spread the floor for McGee. I think he is probably a year away from being a real part of the rotation but I expect to see him getting burn in the preseason and this year.
Hamilton/Fournier are still questionmarks. I loved Fournier's run late last year and I think he has the higher ceiling due to his excellent B-Ball IQ but he is not strong enough nor athletic enough to guard the elite 2's. He got torched on defense last year giving up around a 20 PER to both the 1 and the 2. Hamilton looks like a shooter and nothing else and on top of rumored attitude problems I think he is gonna be gone by the end of the year.
Shaw has impressed me already, I wanted a coach who still would let the team run but with added emphasis on defense and halfcourt offense. The players all seem to like him and I think there are times when a new coach is needed. Look at what Phil did in Chicago after he took over for Doug Collins. What Tom Thibedeau did in Chicago after Vinny Del Negro, Rick Carlisle in Dallas. Giving a team a new coach can be exactly what we need.
I also believe this team is trying to do a mini tank, which makes perfect sense. The worst possible outcome for a season is win 57 games and lose in the 1st round because you then get a crappy pick. The difference between pick 15 and pick 27 is crazy. If we can get that 7-8th seed and make a solid postseason effort (7 games against a good team) would be great. We then draft 15-18 in the most loaded draft in a long time with 1-8 all looking like potential franchise players. Undoubtedly there will be solid talent even outside the lottery with players likely to come out of the woodwork like Oladipo did this year. That way we can potentially get a franchise altering player without missing the playoffs. It's just my thought but with Black people really not liking living in Colorado its hard to envision us getting great Talent via FA. Trades or the draft is how we gotta do it.
My ultimate prediction is that we win 46-50 wins, finish 6th in the west and lose in the 1st round. Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Warriors and Grizz all should be pretty damn good. I honestly don't see this team having another unbelievable year, but I think this really needs to be the year we throw everything against the wall and see what sticks. We have flexibility but Connelly needs to be smart because we are a piece away at least from being a contender.
Last edited by JEDean89; 10-06-2013 at 02:18 PM.
Been wanting a coaching change for a while and Shaw seems like the perfect fit for the Denver Nuggets. Granted, it does seem like the Nuggets FO is banking a TON on his reputation of developing and bringing out the best in young players so there is going to be quite a few growing pains...but if there is ACTUAL improvement then I'll gladly take it.
Ceiling- 57 wins. I just don't think there is anyway they can hit 60..those are for the elite teams and we are not that. Maybe if everything goes according to plan...we can match last year's output...can't say it's likely but if we're strictly talking about "ceiling", which is equivalent to potential, we are an extremely talented team.
Actual- 50 wins or so. Definitely a play-off birth. As it has been mentioned, at the very LEAST we're still going to make our home court a fortress...Shaw still wants us to run...and we will run with Ty and Nate on this team. Even if we are mediocre on the road, which is nothing new with these Denver teams in the past, we're still good enough to be in the post-season.
Ya I seem to remember this nuggets team being pretty damn good after the trade with the Knicks and before we got Iggy. Though we could use AAA I still think we are a better team now than we were pre iguadala trade, so it's not the end of the world that we still don't have him. The growth of Lawson, Chandler, Gallo, Faried and Javale + some of the additions should still have us over 50 wins.
Are they, at their ceiling, a 2nd round playoff team?
I think we'll win about 44-48 games, but in turn fare better in the playoffs.
Although I'm glad we have a new coach, I think by slowing down the offense, we'll take away the only thing that won us games last year. I don't think our defense will improve enough to make up for it, especially with Iggy gone. Even with Shaw, a lot of our players just won't be good on that side of the ball. From what I've seen in the pre-season, the only good defensive player we have is Arthur. Jham, Faried, both Millers, look awful, and the rest of the team is average or below.
TBH, I'm down for some Wiggins-watching.
I think our team will win 50 games this year. We are one of the best teams at home in the NBA period, during the regular season we just always seem to wear teams out when they come to Denver and I don't think that will change this season. Our ceiling win 60 games if Shaw's game plan really starts to be effective and McGee turns into a 15/10/3 Lawson becomes a 24/8 if theres one player im looking for that will improve Lawson's got to turn into our Leader and Faired can get 12/11 and Nate Rob turns into a 6th man candidate, Gallo improves as well into a 17/4/2(assists lowered cause assuming Lawson starts becoming more of a passer) that we all know he can be easily and Shaw develops our less experienced players into solid players(Q,Fournier,Moz) Arthur continues to be a solid role player as well with JJ and we continue to dominate at home and win some of those really close games games we lost away and finally make some noise in the playoffs with out dumb*** Karl putting the dumbest rotations in, and we become a balanced team in the playoffs and possibly go to WCF if the match-ups go our way. I have really high hopes for this team under Shaw can't wait! But I would also not mind if we traded maybe faired and Fournier maybe Gallo switch with evan if its to a bottom team for a top 5 pick and we just commit this whole season to player development and miss the playoffs for the first time in a decade but end up with a player like Wiggins, Parker, Randle
I hate the idea of tanking for a player. While it might be considered naive..I'm still holding hope that at least ONE of our young players can develop into a legitimate star.