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  1. #1
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    Arbitration Estimates

    For those who want to calculate payroll

    Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Mets are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.
    Daniel Murphy (4.109): $5.8MM
    Ike Davis (3.155): $3.5MM
    Dillon Gee (3.028): $3.4MM
    Bobby Parnell (4.132): $3.2MM
    Eric Young, Jr. (3.123): $1.9MM
    Lucas Duda (2.132, Super Two): $1.8MM
    Scott Atchison (4.168): $1.3MM
    Ruben Tejada (2.151, Super Two): $1MM
    Omar Quintanilla (4.122): $900K
    Justin Turner (3.045): $800K
    Mike Baxter (2.129, Super Two): $500K

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
    John Maeda@johnmaeda

    Knowing the overall *shape* of an idea, argument, situation requires as many facts, models, opinions as you can take/make to see a whole.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    For those who want to calculate payroll



    Daniel Murphy (4.109): $5.8MM
    Ike Davis (3.155): $3.5MM
    Dillon Gee (3.028): $3.4MM
    Bobby Parnell (4.132): $3.2MM
    Eric Young, Jr. (3.123): $1.9MM
    Lucas Duda (2.132, Super Two): $1.8MM
    Scott Atchison (4.168): $1.3MM
    Ruben Tejada (2.151, Super Two): $1MM
    Omar Quintanilla (4.122): $900K
    Justin Turner (3.045): $800K
    Mike Baxter (2.129, Super Two): $500K

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
    those have to be the most pathetic super twos in the league

  3. #3
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    OK, I'm assuming that Duda will be gone/traded, as well as Atchison and Baxter. So with these estimates along with what we are paying Wright and Niese, we have $44.6M on the payroll. If we assumed the other 16 players were making the minimum, the salary would be $52.6M. If we want to work within the $85-90M budget for next year, we have about $35-40M to spend.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    OK, I'm assuming that Duda will be gone/traded, as well as Atchison and Baxter. So with these estimates along with what we are paying Wright and Niese, we have $44.6M on the payroll. If we assumed the other 16 players were making the minimum, the salary would be $52.6M. If we want to work within the $85-90M budget for next year, we have about $35-40M to spend.
    That's what I figured.


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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    That's what I figured.
    Gee got a huge increase. Next year will be his last as a Met, if not this year imo. Maybe Murphy too since I don't know if they feel comfortable extending him.

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    How does Ike make the case for a raise? I just don't see it. If I were the Mets I would argue for a pay cut.

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    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinde View Post
    How does Ike make the case for a raise? I just don't see it. If I were the Mets I would argue for a pay cut.
    Service time almost always guarantees raises.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    Gee got a huge increase. Next year will be his last as a Met, if not this year imo. Maybe Murphy too since I don't know if they feel comfortable extending him.
    Both Gee and Murphy will get more than I anticipated.
    Alderson likes Gee, I get the impression that because Murphy doesn't walk enough, it makes him expendable.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  9. #9
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    Major league minimum for 2013 is $490,000, and will be $500,000 in 2014; what exactly would be the point of either side going to arbitration in the Baxter case?
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
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    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    Both Gee and Murphy will get more than I anticipated.
    Alderson likes Gee, I get the impression that because Murphy doesn't walk enough, it makes him expendable.
    Sandy said he wanted Murphy to walk and hit for more power. His defense is still shaky too, but he'll be here next season imo.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinde View Post
    How does Ike make the case for a raise? I just don't see it. If I were the Mets I would argue for a pay cut.
    The Mets will have a very strong argument for a pay cut. But odds are they would still settle for a small raise. There are really no comps for Ike that suggest more than $4M, but a couple in the $3M range he could argue. If Ike asks too much, he'll lose in arbitration and get a cut. But if Ike asks $3.8M and the Mets offer $2.9M, I could see them settle for about $3.4M.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by acerimusdux View Post
    The Mets will have a very strong argument for a pay cut. But odds are they would still settle for a small raise. There are really no comps for Ike that suggest more than $4M, but a couple in the $3M range he could argue. If Ike asks too much, he'll lose in arbitration and get a cut. But if Ike asks $3.8M and the Mets offer $2.9M, I could see them settle for about $3.4M.
    I thought that in arbitration, you were either award one number or the other, there was no compromise. Yes? or am I forgetting something ....... it happens ......

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinde View Post
    How does Ike make the case for a raise? I just don't see it. If I were the Mets I would argue for a pay cut.
    Service time.
    John Maeda@johnmaeda

    Knowing the overall *shape* of an idea, argument, situation requires as many facts, models, opinions as you can take/make to see a whole.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by eltwo View Post
    Major league minimum for 2013 is $490,000, and will be $500,000 in 2014; what exactly would be the point of either side going to arbitration in the Baxter case?
    Service time.
    John Maeda@johnmaeda

    Knowing the overall *shape* of an idea, argument, situation requires as many facts, models, opinions as you can take/make to see a whole.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by skipr1 View Post
    I thought that in arbitration, you were either award one number or the other, there was no compromise. Yes? or am I forgetting something ....... it happens ......
    Once it goes in front of an arbitrator, it's an either or situation. But most of the time, the player and the team will settle for something in between before it gets that far.
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