Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 1 of 11 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 153
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    27,334
    vCash
    1500

    Choo and Mets an ideal match?

    Choo and Mets an ideal match?

    There’s every reason to discuss Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo today and not just because he had the walk-off hit that beat the Mets last night.

    The 31-year-old Choo will be a free agent this offseason and media reports are that he rates at the top of their list of players to pursue, given their available money to spend and their current outfield situation.

    He fits every need

    Shin-Soo Choo
    #17 CF
    Cincinnati Reds
    2013 STATS
    GM HR RBI R OBP AVG
    149 21 54 105 .423 .285

    There is a lot to like about Choo, who ranks second in the NL in on-base percentage.

    If you average out his numbers over the last five seasons, you get a .287/.391/.459 slashline, 17 home runs, 19 steals and 138 games played (with only one season of less than 144 games).

    Choo is a well above-average offensive player who has averaged 4.1 Wins Above Replacement in that span, with highs of 6.0 in 2010 and 5.5 in 2009 when he was probably at his peak.

    If you didn’t see the logo on his jersey, you’d figure Choo would be a Met, based on his swing rate. He swung at just under 40 percent of pitches thrown to him this season, a rate comparable to Josh Satin and Lucas Duda.

    Choo does not go out of his way to swing at bad pitches. His “chase rate” is under 20 percent, which puts him among the 10 least-likely hitters to swing at a pitch out of the strike zone in the game.

    He’s not perfect
    Choo does have a couple of weaknesses:

    His defense detracts from his value The Reds tried to make him a centerfielder this season and the decision has cost them. Choo ranks last in Defensive Runs Saved this season among the 35 centerfielders with the most innings.

    From a Mets perspective, Choo’s numbers in right field are more pertinent. As recently as 2010, Choo had an arm that served as a deterrent, but the value of that declined in 2011 and 2012. In Choo’s last season in right field, he ranked 32nd among 35 outfielders with -12 Defensive Runs Saved, struggling to convert balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark into outs.

    Shin-Soo Choo in 2013
    Home Road
    BA .318 .254
    OBP .448 .399
    Slug pct .500 .429
    Choo’s value is based largely what he does against right-handed pitching. Though you wouldn’t know it from Monday when he had hits against Tim Byrdak and Sean Henn, his numbers against lefties aren’t good.

    Over the last two seasons, he’s hitting .204 with two homers and 104 strikeouts in 382 at-bats against lefties. The heat map atop this article shows his success against righties and his struggles against lefties.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that Choo’s numbers may be inflated from playing in Great American Ball Park, which is much more hitter-friendly than Citi Field. But Choo has been more than respectable on the road this season, as noted in the chart on the right.

    The injury factor
    Choo has been vulnerable to being hit by pitches this season -- he leads the majors with 25.

    Choo’s injury history includes left-elbow surgery in 2007 (he throws left-handed), injuries to both thumbs, which sidelined him for three weeks in 2010 and six weeks in 2011, and a pair of oblique strains in 2011.

    He may cost more than money
    Choo will be a free agent, but the Reds are still able to make him what is known as a qualifying offer, what amounts to a one-year deal whose value is determined by averaging the top 125 salaries from the previous year (further explanation here).

    If Choo turns down the qualifying offer, the team he signs with loses their first-round draft pick, unless that pick is in the Top 10 in the draft (in which case they lose their second-round pick for their first signing).

    The Mets are currently in a logjam in the standings with the Brewers, Rockies, Blue Jays, Phillies, Giants and Padres for what amount to the seventh through 13th-worst records in baseball. How they finish in the final week will determine where they pick and whether that is a protected pick.

    Choo may be the kind of player the Mets are comfortable giving up their first-round pick for. We’ll find out this offseason.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/met...medium=twitter


    “Ninety percent I’ll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I’ll probably waste.”
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Hill Valley, 1985.
    Posts
    7,792
    vCash
    1500
    If they keep the pick, it's because they don't want to spend money. No if's or but's, that's what it is.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    21,448
    vCash
    1500
    Choo does make a lot of sense for the Mets but i wouldn't give him 6 years+.

    5 is the most i go with him and he is not worth writing a blank check.

    No FA this offseason are worth more than 6 years besides Cano and the Mets aren't targeting him.
    Last edited by metswon69; 09-25-2013 at 01:04 PM.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Queens, NY
    Posts
    50,931
    vCash
    1500
    I'd offer him 5/90 with an vesting option.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    21,448
    vCash
    1500
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...s-actually-low

    Rare has one contract prediction created such a stir as an unnamed general manager suggesting last month that Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo would get $90 million to $100 million via the free-agent market this winter.

    Commenters, tweeps and readers couldn't believe it. Almost collectively, they shot back, "No way!"

    Guess what? Choo's agent Scott Boras agrees that that estimate isn't in the ballpark. But he means the estimate is low.

    Boras was asked recently about the $100 million estimate (the high end of our GM's guess), and he suggested it is low, way low.

    "As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market," Boras said in a phone interview. "I don't think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got."

    If the Reds' lead-off man does get $100 million, or more, it is believed he'd become the first the nine-figure player who never has made an All-Star team. Werth, Zack Greinke, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Hampton, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran are six rare players of 43 who've landed $100 million-plus deals who made only one All-Star team before signing their big deals (Beltran has made seven more All-Star teams since and Teixeira one more). Teams did commit more than $100 million apiece for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish, who were just coming to MLB, though they both received only a little more than half the money.

    That non-All-Star note just may be a fluke since Choo is having an All-Star-caliber season, with 21 home runs, 106 runs, 20 stolen bases, a .287 batting average, .891 OPS, and most notably, a .424 on-base percentage, which is good for second best in the NL behind teammate Joey Votto.

    "I think the hardest position to make the All-Star team is outfielder, and it's very difficult for a lead-off hitter," Boras said. "Those spots usually go to corner power guys."

    Choo's All-Star exclusion may be nothing more than a oddity. But it could be affecting those winter prognostications. Three more executives were quizzed, and while they have a management perspective, two guessed $75 million for five years and one guessed $56 million for four.

    Two of the execs were obviously looking at B.J. Upton's $75.5 million, five-year deal, and the third was eying Michael Bourn's $48 million, four-year deal. Boras, however, doesn't believe they are in the ballpark. He says the first issue is the faulty presumption that five years is the limit. Werth, who was slightly older as a free agent, received seven years.

    "The value of a lead-off hitter who has a .420 on-base percentage, 20-stolen base speed, 20-home run power, the ability to score 100 runs, and who has the ability to play center field and is a Gold Glove type defender in right field is immense," Boras said. "We don't see these types of players in the free-agent market. I only want to talk about our clients, and the last one we had anywhere near this was Jayson Werth."

    Boras also pointed out that Werth was considered a 32-year-old player his first season in Washington while Choo will be considered to be 31 (though technically, only a two-month gap separates the two players).

    The Werth contract, for $126 million over seven years, was widely panned as a terrific overpay at the time, though the Nationals aren't expressing great regret and Werth certainly is living up to the deal his third year into it.

    "With free agency, you never know," said one of the execs who guessed $75 million, adding, "Jayson Werth is one of the worst contracts ever. If I hear Jayson Werth, it's in one ear and out the other."

    POWER RANKINGS
    Reds come in at No. 6
    But one more point to be made is that Werth's contract (and Crawford's) came three years ago. And Baseball is flush with cash at the moment. One thing both sides agree on is that MLB teams are doing better than ever financially, with a few notable exceptions.

    Choo's career slash line of .288/.389/.465/.854 is actually slightly better than Werth's .273/.366/.470/.836. Boras also pointed out that Choo has had significant time in center field now this year (and could obviously play there if need be, as he's doing it for a playoff team this year), and even more important, is proven as a lead-off hitter after a huge year in Cincinnati, where he more than fulfilled their hopes for him.

    No surprise, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has said they intend to try to keep Choo. The Rangers, Cubs, and Mets have been mentioned as other potential suitors, with the Giants and Red Sox possibly needing outfielders in the event free agents Hunter Pence and Jacoby Ellsbury leave, and the Yankees always are a wild card, especially if they ditch their current plan to get below a $189 million payroll.

    Boras said he wouldn't discuss any players as comparables who aren't his. But one other name that is sure to come up as a comparable has to be Crawford, who signed for $142 million over seven years the same winter Werth signed. Crawford has much more speed than Choo but his slash line (down a bit since the signing) isn't as good either at .292/.332/.438/.770.

    And while Choo has proved passable in center field, Crawford always has played left. Plus, Choo has established himself as a prototype lead-off hitter, a role Crawford never really embraced until this season.

    Of course, there may be as many folks who would criticize the Crawford deal as the Werth one, as Werth has come much closer to living up to his contract. (Though the Red Sox surprised folks when they were able to unload most of the Crawford contract in a deal that also involved Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett, an August, 2012 blockbuster trade with the Dodgers.)

    Choo's biggest break may have come when the Reds acquired him and moved him into the lead-off spot, where he has thrived.

    "There are so many teams that need a lead-off hitter," Boras said.

    The need surely is there at a time the teams are flush with cash, and Choo has some standout stats, especially that OBP.

    Boras has been known to aim high on occasion. But in this case, Choo has made a compelling case.

    While Choo never has been an All-Star, he's blessed with the most important of all assets, and that is timing.
    Here we go with Boras looking for 100 million dollars for Choo. I know those are only his demands and how he is trying to create leverage for his client but he can shove those demands up his ***.
    Last edited by metswon69; 09-25-2013 at 03:47 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Queens, NY
    Posts
    50,931
    vCash
    1500
    He's definitely not getting 7 years. 6/96 might not be that bad. $16M per season.

    Boras can really sell his players though, geez. I hope everyone knows that Choo is the worst CF defender in baseball.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Posts
    1,561
    vCash
    1500
    why would choo leave the reds to play for the Mets?

    Reds have a smaller ballpark/better team/similar contracts, I guess there's a better selection of south korean poontang in newyork but I doubt that's a deal breaker

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    21,448
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by rebuilding View Post
    why would choo leave the reds to play for the Mets?

    Reds have a smaller ballpark/better team/similar contracts, I guess there's a better selection of south korean poontang in newyork but I doubt that's a deal breaker


    I don't know if the Reds have the money to sign him after they just gave Phillips and Votto all their money.
    Last edited by metswon69; 09-25-2013 at 04:24 PM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Queens, NY
    Posts
    50,931
    vCash
    1500
    More money, Flushing, and gets out of CF.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    The Boogie Down
    Posts
    77,816
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by rebuilding View Post
    why would choo leave the reds to play for the Mets?

    Reds have a smaller ballpark/better team/similar contracts, I guess there's a better selection of south korean poontang in newyork but I doubt that's a deal breaker
    Money.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    East of the Sun, West of the Moon
    Posts
    15,303
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna View Post
    I'd offer him 5/90 with an vesting option.
    Average Annual Value of $18 million/year?

    What?

    I think you were were pricing Bourne at $18 or $16 million/year last winter -- and he got $12 million AAV. You sure do like to overspend. I think you said Reyes would get $20m AAV, and he got $17.6m AAV.
    Last edited by Dugmet; 09-25-2013 at 07:32 PM.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    2,547
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    Average Annual Value of $18 million/year?

    What?

    I think you were were pricing Bourne at $18 or $16 million/year last winter -- and he got $12 million AAV. You sure do like to overspend. I think you said Reyes would get $20m AAV, and he got $17.6m AAV.
    I think he means 5/90 is the max he would go. Obviously with a little wiggle room to go up, but anything less is welcomed.

    He's not saying 5/90 would be his opening offer dude.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Queens, NY
    Posts
    50,931
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by yfern328 View Post
    I think he means 5/90 is the max he would go. Obviously with a little wiggle room to go up, but anything less is welcomed.

    He's not saying 5/90 would be his opening offer dude.
    Yup. That's obviously not the starting bid. If Choo gets in Werth territory, BACK OUT.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    @MattHunt22
    Posts
    6,291
    vCash
    500

    Choo and Mets an ideal match?

    I would never sign Choo to the contract Boras expects. That goes for any of his clients


    If You Ain't Huckin, You Ain't ****in

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    4,191
    vCash
    1500
    I'm not keen on the Mets signing Choo this offseason. He's a nice player who fits their needs now, but would have to be one of many pieces the Mets add in order to make a substantial difference. At the price tag that he'll accompany, I'd prefer the Mets allocate the resources in a different manner.

    Choo is unlikely to sustain his .424 OBP carrying into his age 31 season and beyond. His previous career high .401 OBP came in 2010. His HR/FB ratio is also at a career high while his line drive and fly ball rates have remained in line with his career averages. He has benefitted from the conditions at Great American Ballpark and would likely experience a natural regression at a more neutral site like Citi Field. He very well may have had an identical or similar season this year in Flushing to the one he's having in Cincinnati, but to hope that he'll repeat this time and time again as he enters his age 31-35 season is unlikely.

    Despite this, Choo would have considerable value as the Mets leadoff man. If he were shifted to RF he'd be able to decrease his defensive woes that he has in center and Lagares is able to cover a ton of ground. His career .289/.389/.466 clip is significantly higher than that of Eric Young Jr or any other internal option the Mets currently possess.

    I would look to give Choo a contract somewhere in the range of 4-5 years and $13.5-16M AAV for the duration of the contract. He may be worth $20M annually if he continued to produce his current year into his decline years, but with that being unlikely and no team as a likely candidate to jump out and give him the $100M that Boas seeks I think he can be had for 5-75 guaranteed with a package of incentives to make the potential value of the contract increase to $82.5-85M.

    I think an interesting candidate the Mets should look at is Corey Hary. He would be a reclamation project having missed 2013 with a knee injury, but can play both 1B and RF (although not very well, and probably less so now). He would provide some necessary insurance at 1B and could be a valuable provider of offense for the club.

    www.DailyStache.net You Gotta Believe
    R.I.P UAPeople

Page 1 of 11 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •